If we ever had to plan for their "planed" Orbat we would have to be the size of USAF.
10 years ago this was also due to be their planned Orbat (without AMCA), and they are left with just 1.5 MK1 Sqds that are not even all FOC.
Right now even if they have all of the above it may take at least another 15 years (by their own admission) to gain all the above, possibly another 20 years if you include the AMCA.
Obviously the downfall of all the amazing planning if conveniantly forgetting the PAF also plans and modernises......
Oh this is the modest version of what they and a retired Indian Air Force chief mentioned, referencing the 60’s era TATA report about having 65 (60-70) squadrons and a recent mention by the ex chief of the IAF for 20-25 of those squadrons to be UCAVs.
But you’re right about the PAF planning as well. With the interoperability with the PLAAF, in a war time situation, it would be much easier for the PLAAF to paint their UCAVs in the PAF colors and send them to Pakistan to support their ally, flying UCAVs out of PAF bases (via satellite control from China), and overwhelming IAF plans. Good experience for the PLAAF and good backup for the PAF. The PAF can stick to a lean 20-24 manned squadrons and perhaps a further 6 unmanned squadrons, with the rest of its resources devoted to other branches as well as economic development. PLAAF deployments in Sichuan, Tibet and Xinjiang, as well as the rebuilding of the Bangladeshi Air Force should tie up the Indian Air Force as well.
You'll notice something interesting...
Through the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, the Indians didn't have much trouble with procurement. They could always tap the Soviets for new and capable jets - and in massive numbers. For ex., MiG-21s, Su-7s, MiG-23s, MiG-27s, and Su-30s.
Even if a Western-sourced or even indigenous program stalls, the Russians were always there ready to ramp up and fill in the gaps.
This was a headache for the PAF because no matter what we could do, there'd be no way to 1:1 match the scale at which India can induct modern jets. Even at a time when major US aid was a factor, the PAF still couldn't do it.
What changed?
Why is there now a sense that the PAF can potentially pull ahead?
It's China.
Up to this point, India had the advantage of leveraging this incredibly industrial and fairly advanced aerospace supplier. Pakistan never had that, at least not for the same duration and consistency India did.
From the early 2000s things started to slowly shift because the Russians became less and less efficient, and the Chinese ramped up. Not only that, China also took the lead in technology advancement across the board.
So, while Pakistan can now shop at literally the world's largest and most efficient manufacturer of almost everything, the Indians lost Russia as a key supplier. And while the US can fill in for sure, the scale, efficiency, and cost the Soviets brought isn't there. And Europe is even more distant in that regard.
The only bottleneck Pakistan has right now is its economy and fiscal discipline; it is the only thing that'll sink it. But even then, the scalability China provides and its ability to reach even lower price points while still providing capability will help -- and that's a thorn unlike any other for India.
hushkit.net
