Pakistan Budget for FY 2026-27

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ECONOMIC SURVEY 2025-26: Provinces’ development freeze to persist beyond next fiscal year


Khaleeq Kiani
June 12, 2026

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Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb gestures towards Bilal Azhar Kiyani, as Ahsan Iqbal reacts, during the launch of the Economic Survey 2026-27.—Tanveer Shahzad/White Star

• Economic Survey shows major targets missed as Aurangzeb claims resilience amid three major shocks
• Says budget to offer incentives for agriculture, housing
• Over Rs900bn to be diverted for Centre’s strategic needs
• Centralised tax system, retailer model to be announced
• Oil price impact to continue next year
• Current account deficit falls to $252m; remittances may reach $41-42bn by year-end
• Fiscal deficit falls to 0.7pc of GDP; debt-to-GDP ratio drops to 68.5pc
• FBR recovers Rs94bn through digitisation, AI audits


ISLAMABAD: The freeze on provincial development programmes, expected to generate more than Rs900 billion in additional resources for the Centre’s strategic needs, will continue for a specific period beyond one year, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Wednesday as he unveiled the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26, which showed missed targets across major economic sectors in the outgoing fiscal year.
 
Reviewing the economic report card, the minister said the economy grew by 3.7 per cent this year — almost the same as the 3.6pc reported at this stage last year, later revised down to 3.2pc — reflecting resilience and economic stability in the face of three major exogenous shocks: global trade and tariff challenges at the beginning of the fiscal year, floods in Pakistan and, finally, regional war-related pressures.

Aurangzeb, who was flanked by the ministers for planning and information, the minister of state for finance and the railways minister, said he would explain in detail in his budget speech the mechanism for utilisation of additional resources secured from the provinces through the development freeze.

Asked whether the understanding outside the National Finance Commission, formalised at the National Economic Council meeting a day earlier, was permanent or limited to one year, he said the arrangement would be for a specific period beyond one year.
 
The finance minister appreciated the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government and the “impressive engagement” with Chief Minister Sohail Afridi during the NEC meeting on Tuesday. He also valued the contribution of Muzzammil Aslam, saying the IMF programme was not only an agreement of the finance ministry or the Centre but of the entire country.

The minister said the government would offer special incentives for agricultural productivity and the housing sector in the budget on Friday (today) and provide end-user interest rates in single digits for 10 years.

He said the trade policy for the auto sector had already been announced for five years to provide a forward-looking vision because domestic investment had to pick up before foreign investment could follow.

The minister said discussions with the IMF were progressing positively. He declined to comment on relief for the salaried class, saying the prime minister had given clear instructions on the sectors that needed to be focused on, including salaried individuals and documented businesses.
 
Missed targets

Aurangzeb said the economic recovery was broad-based this year, with 3.7pc growth — the highest in the last three years — supported by 2.89pc growth in agriculture, 3.5pc in industry and 4.09pc in services.

Except for services, all targets were missed. The targets had been set at 4.2pc for GDP growth, 4.5pc for agriculture, 4.3pc for industry and 4pc for services. Large-scale manufacturing, he said, increased the most in the last four years to 6.1pc, while 16 out of 22 sectors showed positive trends.

The investment-to-GDP ratio came in at 14.38pc against a target of 14.7pc, while the national savings-to-GDP ratio stood at 14.13pc against a target of 14.3pc. The minister said not only investment and savings ratios, but also the revenue-to-GDP ratio remained low and should be in the “high teens”.
 

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