Most likely the Indians were shot down in the following scenario:
1. After the cruise missile strikes PAF sent up aggressive CAPs
2. IAF pilots, also on CAPs came in proximity of the PAF fighters.
3. Due to effective jamming, long range of AAMs, powerful radars, AWACs and netcentric warfare, the PAF J-10s had the upper hand.
4. The J-10s didn't have their radars on, they simply launched from high kinetics, while the AAMs were guided by networked radars from other platforms.
5. In the last minute, the already jammed IAF Rafales suddenly got a missile warning, too little to do much other than eject, and one of them couldn't even do that.
6. End result, India will be buying more Martin-Baker ejection seats soon.
I'm expecting the Pakistani response early Monday morning. I believe this will be on military targets, but also on Modi's home state, just to rub it in. I'd have preferred an attack further south on Mumbai, but that may be too far up the escalation ladder for Pakistan.