RescueRanger
Meme Lord
I posted this on the 26th of April:
Make no mistake - Despite these soundbites - India sees the eventuality of a two front war as a very real possibility.
In the sphere of arms transfers, over the past decade, China has become Pakistan’s leading and most important provider of arms as measured by value, and Pakistan has become China’s largest and most important arms recipient, acquiring almost 40% of Beijing’s arms exports.
Since 2015, China has provided nearly 75% of all of Pakistan’s imported arms (by trend-indicator value). China has grown as the leading supplier of the Pakistan Army’s combat power.
It is the undisputed dominant supplier of the Pakistan Army and Pakistan Air Force (PAF), and although the Pakistan Navy has effectively diversified, China is still its largest provider of major combat platforms to it.
For example, despite the historical attention paid to Pakistan’s three F-16 fighter squadrons, each comprising 18–24 of its most advanced combat aircraft, Chinese platforms such as the JF-17 multirole combat aircraft make up the largest share of Pakistan’s modern fighter fleet, while the China-supplied F-7, designed for short-range air-to-air combat, forms the backbone of the legacy attack aircraft fleet.
Chinese-origin equipment also constitutes the majority of the Pakistan army’s offensive armor and support units used in fire missions, such as artillery and rocket launchers.
Increasingly, compatible supply chains for armor, artillery, and rocket launchers; networked communications and information systems; and interoperable air defenses and electronic warfare systems have moved Pakistan and China closer to being able to aggregate their considerable military capabilities should they make the strategic decision to do so. [This is what gives planners in Delhi sleepless nights].
Source: https://www.efsas.org/commentaries/usip-report-on-deepening-china–pakistan-military-relations2023/
India has traditionally seen Pakistan and China as "irritants" but this all changed after 2009 where under then Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor plans were made for the Indian military to fight a simultaneous two pronged way with Pakistan and China for 30 days Intensive and 60 days normal rate*
However this plan was rebuked in 2011. Writing in 2011, Lieutenant General V. K. Kapoor categorically stated, “Are we anticipating a full-fledged war among the three nuclear armed neighbours? Nothing can be farther from truth.”**
Writing in 2016, Manoj Joshi, who had been a member of the Naresh Chandra-led committee on national security, asked, “Is it possible that any country which possesses nuclear weapons will risk fighting an all-out war with another, leave alone two of them? The chances are remote.”***
It wasn't until the 73-day Doklam standoff in 2017 that India seriously contemplated plans to fight a limited war on two fronts and in July 2018, then-Army Chief General Bipin Rawat asserted that “the two-front is a real scenario. Much has changed from before in terms of our capabilities … The Army, Navy and IAF are now jointly very much prepared for such an eventuality.****
In simple terms, the two-front challenge refers to a simultaneous armed conflict between India and both China and Pakistan.
Indian threat analysis leads that China and Pakistan could follow either a collaborative or a collusive approach: the former involves one country openly aiding the other militarily, whereas the latter involves covert cooperation between the two.
Covert cooperation means that if India is engaged in an armed conflict with Pakistan, China would provide moral, material, and logistics support to Pakistan.
In case of a collaborative threat, India believes that either of the countries could activate a second front militarily in a coordinated manner. The two are not exclusive options, as the transition from the collusive threat to the collaborative threat could occur seamlessly.*****
For New Delhi, the collusive threat from China and Pakistan already exists. Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat noted that “Chinese economic cooperation with Pakistan, in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, along with continued military, economic and diplomatic support mandate high levels of preparation by us.”
CPEC has always been a concern for India due to the its dual use as a resupply route for Pakistan for arms, equipment and spares.
The Indian Government fully appreciate that Pakistan is the biggest importer of Chinese military equipment, especially high-end platforms like fighter jets, main battle tanks, submarines, and unmanned aerial vehicles.
Moreover, India sees the Pak-China geopolitical alliance as cemented by the execution of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project under the Belt and Road Initiative.
For India the collusive threat already exists, and according to Amid Row - "does not demand from India an active physical deployment of troops and additional commitment of military hardware simultaneously on two separate fronts. That leaves the collaborative military threat as New Delhi’s real worry."
* Note: Ashok Mehta, “Two-Front Plan Should Factor In Diplomacy,” The Tribune, September 22, 2020.
**Note: Lt. Gen. V. K. Kapoor, “Fighting a Two-Front War,” SP’s Land Forces 4 (2011).
***Note: Manoj Joshi, “Is India Prepared for a Two-Front War with Pakistan-China?,” Mail Today, March 14, 2016.
**** Note: Rajat Pandit, “Two-Front War is a Real Scenario, Says General Bipin Rawat,” The Economic Times, July 13, 2018.
*****Note: Gen. V. P. Malik, “A Comprehensive Response Strategy to a Collusive and Collaborative Threat from China and Pakistan,” 30th USI Security Lecture, The United Service Institute of India, December 3, 2014.
Make no mistake - Despite these soundbites - India sees the eventuality of a two front war as a very real possibility.
In the sphere of arms transfers, over the past decade, China has become Pakistan’s leading and most important provider of arms as measured by value, and Pakistan has become China’s largest and most important arms recipient, acquiring almost 40% of Beijing’s arms exports.
Since 2015, China has provided nearly 75% of all of Pakistan’s imported arms (by trend-indicator value). China has grown as the leading supplier of the Pakistan Army’s combat power.
It is the undisputed dominant supplier of the Pakistan Army and Pakistan Air Force (PAF), and although the Pakistan Navy has effectively diversified, China is still its largest provider of major combat platforms to it.
For example, despite the historical attention paid to Pakistan’s three F-16 fighter squadrons, each comprising 18–24 of its most advanced combat aircraft, Chinese platforms such as the JF-17 multirole combat aircraft make up the largest share of Pakistan’s modern fighter fleet, while the China-supplied F-7, designed for short-range air-to-air combat, forms the backbone of the legacy attack aircraft fleet.
Chinese-origin equipment also constitutes the majority of the Pakistan army’s offensive armor and support units used in fire missions, such as artillery and rocket launchers.
Increasingly, compatible supply chains for armor, artillery, and rocket launchers; networked communications and information systems; and interoperable air defenses and electronic warfare systems have moved Pakistan and China closer to being able to aggregate their considerable military capabilities should they make the strategic decision to do so. [This is what gives planners in Delhi sleepless nights].
Source: https://www.efsas.org/commentaries/usip-report-on-deepening-china–pakistan-military-relations2023/
India has traditionally seen Pakistan and China as "irritants" but this all changed after 2009 where under then Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor plans were made for the Indian military to fight a simultaneous two pronged way with Pakistan and China for 30 days Intensive and 60 days normal rate*
However this plan was rebuked in 2011. Writing in 2011, Lieutenant General V. K. Kapoor categorically stated, “Are we anticipating a full-fledged war among the three nuclear armed neighbours? Nothing can be farther from truth.”**
Writing in 2016, Manoj Joshi, who had been a member of the Naresh Chandra-led committee on national security, asked, “Is it possible that any country which possesses nuclear weapons will risk fighting an all-out war with another, leave alone two of them? The chances are remote.”***
It wasn't until the 73-day Doklam standoff in 2017 that India seriously contemplated plans to fight a limited war on two fronts and in July 2018, then-Army Chief General Bipin Rawat asserted that “the two-front is a real scenario. Much has changed from before in terms of our capabilities … The Army, Navy and IAF are now jointly very much prepared for such an eventuality.****
In simple terms, the two-front challenge refers to a simultaneous armed conflict between India and both China and Pakistan.
Indian threat analysis leads that China and Pakistan could follow either a collaborative or a collusive approach: the former involves one country openly aiding the other militarily, whereas the latter involves covert cooperation between the two.
Covert cooperation means that if India is engaged in an armed conflict with Pakistan, China would provide moral, material, and logistics support to Pakistan.
In case of a collaborative threat, India believes that either of the countries could activate a second front militarily in a coordinated manner. The two are not exclusive options, as the transition from the collusive threat to the collaborative threat could occur seamlessly.*****
For New Delhi, the collusive threat from China and Pakistan already exists. Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat noted that “Chinese economic cooperation with Pakistan, in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, along with continued military, economic and diplomatic support mandate high levels of preparation by us.”
CPEC has always been a concern for India due to the its dual use as a resupply route for Pakistan for arms, equipment and spares.
The Indian Government fully appreciate that Pakistan is the biggest importer of Chinese military equipment, especially high-end platforms like fighter jets, main battle tanks, submarines, and unmanned aerial vehicles.
Moreover, India sees the Pak-China geopolitical alliance as cemented by the execution of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project under the Belt and Road Initiative.
For India the collusive threat already exists, and according to Amid Row - "does not demand from India an active physical deployment of troops and additional commitment of military hardware simultaneously on two separate fronts. That leaves the collaborative military threat as New Delhi’s real worry."
* Note: Ashok Mehta, “Two-Front Plan Should Factor In Diplomacy,” The Tribune, September 22, 2020.
**Note: Lt. Gen. V. K. Kapoor, “Fighting a Two-Front War,” SP’s Land Forces 4 (2011).
***Note: Manoj Joshi, “Is India Prepared for a Two-Front War with Pakistan-China?,” Mail Today, March 14, 2016.
**** Note: Rajat Pandit, “Two-Front War is a Real Scenario, Says General Bipin Rawat,” The Economic Times, July 13, 2018.
*****Note: Gen. V. P. Malik, “A Comprehensive Response Strategy to a Collusive and Collaborative Threat from China and Pakistan,” 30th USI Security Lecture, The United Service Institute of India, December 3, 2014.
