Pakistan-India Conflict 2025: News Updates and Discussion
- Thread starter Ali_Baba
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Meengla
Elite Member
Yes, the likely first step of the next war. Hard for Pakistan to not take the damage but only way to deter that would be Pakistan's own massive deployments of missiles targeting Indian cities and military infra, if Pakistan can get those missiles in time.
Mighty_Dragon_Strike
Trusted Member
which one is not donkey though!
Rational Philosopher
Trusted Member
Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025 • Stimson Center
An early assessment of available evidence on what transpired in the recent India-Pakistan crisis and its implications
www.stimson.org
Executive Summary
Following a terrorist attack on April 22, India launched punitive strikes on Pakistan on May 7. This began a four-day conflict between India and Pakistan from May 7-10, which became the most serious military crisis in decades between the two rival nuclear states. Both sides have declared victory amid considerable misinformation and disinformation about what occurred. This essay seeks to offer a factually grounded narrative of the evolution of the crisis, while mindful of severe data limitation problems in the public domain that complicate analysis. Even with the limited or contested information currently available, some tentative conclusions are possible.
The conflict represents several military firsts:
— This was the first time India used cruise missiles on Pakistan, both the BrahMos cruise missile (co-developed with Russia) as well as the European SCALP-EG.
— This was the first time Pakistan used conventionally armed short-range ballistic missiles on India, in the form of the Fatah-I and Fatah-II missiles and possibly other missile types.
— While drones have been used sporadically along the Line of Control in Kashmir and elsewhere for smuggling, this is the first instance of drone warfare in the India-Pakistan rivalry where both sides employed drones with the intent of causing damage on the other.
Available information also permits several conclusions about the military situation during the crisis:
— India demonstrated an ability to deliver precise standoff attacks across large swathes of Pakistan on each day of the conflict but especially May 7 and May 10. While Pakistani air defenses likely interfered with or intercepted some attempted strikes, Pakistan has a meaningful and serious vulnerability to Indian air attack.
— There is no evidence of any manned aircraft crossing into the airspace of the other side, which indicates the seriousness with which both sides viewed the air defense threat of the other even on the final day of the conflict.
— On the first day of hostilities, May 7, India likely lost several aircraft to Pakistani counterair operations. While Indian officials neither acknowledged nor denied the losses, they represent perhaps the most meaningful military costs India experienced during the Four-Day Conflict.
— On May 8 through May 10, India’s integrated air and missile defense system appears to have largely defeated several waves of Pakistani drone attacks of ambiguous scope, scale, and intensity. On May 9-10, the Indian air and missile defense system appears to have worked against limited Pakistani short-range ballistic missile attacks as well.
— After its apparent downing of Indian aircraft on May 7, Pakistan inflicted virtually no observable damage on Indian military units or facilities, though Indian officials have said there was some damage at four installations.
— While attention focused primarily on the air and drone campaigns, most of the May 7 strikes occurred in or near Kashmir; subsequent fighting along the Line of Control in Kashmir was deadly and served as a major source of casualties for both sides.
Political conclusions are also possible:
— The India-Pakistan relationship remains crisis-prone, and those crises are likely to continue to escalate in severity over time.
— While the mutual possession of nuclear weapons heavily conditioned the responses of both sides, overt nuclear signaling was lower than in many prior India-Pakistan crises.
— Both sides worked to calibrate escalation and showed some ability to manage escalation adequately. Both sides were sometimes surprised, however, by choices made by the other and, in some instances, likely viewed an adversary’s response as escalatory rather than proportional.
— The crisis was costly in terms of human lives and expended or destroyed military equipment. Those costs will likely work to induce some caution in the bilateral relationship in the near-term, a probable principal aim of Indian policy.
— The United States played a major role in crisis management, especially in the final hours of the crisis. While it is conceivable another actor could have played this role as crisis communicator of choice for both combatants, and some alternative third parties did play a role in crisis diplomacy, none of those alternative actors appear to have participated with the same efficacy as the United States.
This crisis involved the use of several weapons systems, often in innovative ways, which neither India nor Pakistan possessed at the time of their last crisis in 2019. While this crisis provides a baseline for the next India-Pakistan crisis, the pace of military technological change means that the contours of that next crisis might be meaningfully different. Both sides’ perceived setbacks and failures will serve as a major driver for defense acquisitions and doctrinal innovation.
Dalit
Elite Member
It all comes down to preparation and situational awareness. There is no doubt that Pakistan needs to prepare for the worst scenario.
I think it was the panic mode that had gripped IAF. When you lose several aircraft including Rafale the one aircraft on which you pinned all your hopes then that is where the panic kicks in and your only objective is to avoid further losses. Same happened with IAF.
Waz
Administrator
Hakikat ve Hikmet
VIP Member
You've to understand their mindset in the light of the KITAP....
Few inklings:
- If one jet gets shot down all the pilots would assume they're shot too
- The "black energy" that keeps them motivated and bold starts failing as they start going more toward the space
- Their core understandings and beliefs don't change with time or space
- Once a setback happens it's hard for them to maintain the spirit. They need a long time to regroup
- The more Sher they acquire the less Khair they enjoy. Both Sher and Khair are under HIS Irade. In Khair (for the Ehl-i Iman) is HIS Riza, and in Sher (for the Ehl-i Kufr) is HIS La'net
- Etc.
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Waz
Administrator
True that's why they run around every social media platform on earth saying how they hit PAF hangers.
I'd hang my head in shame if our jets went down quicker than a lead weight in water.
Rational Philosopher
Trusted Member
Waz
Administrator
All quiet so far i.e. no info. Which means the news on the jets going down is true. My guess is they will try to spin three of them as malfunctions due to sheer embarrassment.
Waz
Administrator
Bro I'd like to request if you can please kindly unlock the thread below, I think it's actually a very important discussion that deserves its own thread. It's for specifically discussing counter-measures from what we learn from this current thread about the conflict.
Bro we already have a post conflict assessment thread going on. We can all post there. I can merge it?
Rational Philosopher
Trusted Member
Post-conflict is good to discuss the conflict as a whole and is quite cluttered, I think that separate thread would be better to discuss specifically about our air defence (given the BrahMos strikes) and also discuss ways to penetrate India's for counter strikes. IMO they serve different purposes and the latter discussion is very important.
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