Pakistan planning massive new power capacity expansion

[RealNapster]

Government babus are hoping/projecting for the best-case scenario, and Miftah is number crunching like an accountant instead of trying to comprehend the bigger picture.
If you transform the whole economy's infrastructure into a pro-electric one , i.e., if you have EV's only, you use electricity for heating, ACs, your economy grows at a reasonable % 4-5%, your population grows, so does your consumer market Ie more tvs, ac's, more demand for electricity, add in electric bikes, rickshaws, minivans and cars
We'd need all that energy
But this is the best-case scenario, although I think atp
The government should also start relying on people to take care of their energy needs through solar energy
They should project for that too.

Bro our grid cant even bear the load of ceiling fans and needs to shit supply every 2-3 hours to preventing circuitory from melting. Do you think it can sustain charging of 100,000 EVs every night ?

 

[RealNapster]

This is precisely the problem with Pak. Not lack of electricity.

Why do you think Pakistan signed deal with China to supply donkey ? Because Pakistans donkey production is high.

 

[Olympus81]

What the fish is going on here?

Add more power capacity while we are barely using 50% of what we have currently.

The nuclear reactors, dams, solar are going to come online in a few years. There is also an opportunity to make Iran-Pakistan gas a reality and produce electricity.

Why in God’s name do we need additional capacity?

This is peak stupidity and Pakistan will be fished for another 2 decades.

 

[Fatman17]

$40-55 billion in additional capacity spend. Another $10 billion in transmission distribution for these plants.

Say hello to massive capacity charge increase and circular debt.

And distribution losses

 

[Michael]

If we only look at Pakistan's total power generation capacity and total electricity load, then Pakistan certainly doesn't lack electricity. Or rather, it's far from needing to heavily develop power generation facilities.

The real problem is: is electricity being fully utilized?

This is a very complex issue. Let me give you an example.

Many years ago, in the northwestern mountainous region of Sichuan Province, China, due to natural conditions, it was extremely poor. However, the region had abundant water resources. As a result, countless hydroelectric power stations of varying sizes were built.

However, due to poverty, the local area couldn't build a power transmission network to connect to the national grid, and even those connections were extremely inefficient. Meanwhile, the local demand for electricity was very low.

This resulted in the cheap electricity generated locally not being transmitted, with a large amount of power being directly grounded and wasted; meanwhile, the developed areas in the central Sichuan Basin suffered from severe power shortages.

Therefore, a strange phenomenon occurred: numerous Bitcoin factories appeared in the mountainous areas (a practice prohibited by Chinese law); while the developed central regions invested heavily in building highly polluting coal-fired power plants.

Until the Chinese government intervened forcefully. On the one hand, huge investments are made in building power transmission networks; on the other hand, Bitcoin factories are forcibly suppressed; and on yet another hand, environmental regulations are used to force the closure of numerous coal-fired power plants (while retaining a few less polluting coal-fired power plants). Ultimately, a virtuous cycle is formed.

 

[Erroroverload]

We will always need more electricity. Period.

Pakistani people do not have the luxury of availability of electricity 24/7.

Pakistani population has been growing by nearly 4 million people annually.

Thakkay patwari, we already have more then enough capacity. 45000mw but utilization is under 40%. or kitna dabona hai is mulk ko

 

[Proud Thamizhan]

This is precisely the problem with Pak. Not lack of electricity.

ultimately isn't population growth a good thing? you get more youngsters to support needs of the retirees. Naturally there is a happy medium

 

[Fatman17]

And distribution losses

And line theft - kunda mafia

 

[Olympus81]

Do we have the current numbers of IPPs and who do they belong to.

Would be interesting and one may get a picture of why more IPPs and capacity are being shoved down Pakistan’s throats.

 

[kambhakt]

Idk about other things but I think pak would definitely see a EV boom just like it saw one with solar
Only a Matter of time
But yeah you're right about other things though
Numbers are kinda iffy even if you take evs into account 2030s onwards.

At current electricity rates, an EV boom will also lead to a solar power and battery boom. Charge your home battery from solar during the day and charge your EV from your home battery during the night. Nothing from the grid. If your electricity rate increases, no one who can afford solar is buying it.

 

[Fatman17]

Pakistan’s power sector bleeds an estimated 17% to 30% of its generated electricity due to system inefficiencies and theft. These Transmission and Distribution (T&D) losses, combined with low revenue recovery, cost the national exchequer hundreds of billions of rupees annually, significantly driving up consumer tariffs and compounding the circular debt crisis

 

[mythbuster]

To all naysayers .... .. . ... All those inefficient powerplants based on imported fossil fuels ( other than coal ) will be phased out by 2035 and replaced by more efficient ones I e , nuclear, solar and hydel .... All of you who are fretting about oversupply shall know that this oversupply is temporary.......as some of you pointed out ! Transmission lines and grids are our Achilles heel , it needs to be fixed .....stay positive and keep your spirits high .

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

There is a concept in economics called sensitivity analysis. In this we determine when does option B become more better than option A.

Let's say today you need 5000 mw. This will cost you say 1 billion dollars. But 10 years later you will need additional 5000 mw which at that time will cost 0.8 billion dollars.
That's the first option.

These are good options for fully developed nations to consider. They don't apply to developing Pakistan which lacks infrastructure needed for its 800,000 sq km area and it's 257 million people.

But second option is that you can directly build capacity of 10000 mw now. Costing 2 billion dollars.

Now tell me which option is best, economically ??? Build full capacity now or go staged ? When does option A become better then option B ?

Nothing is being installed in one go now. It'll take 5-10 years to get that capacity, and by that time Pakistan's population would've grown by 20-40 million people by then.

All the decisions should be made based on these analysis. How much will each option cost. How much economic pressure will each option put us into. Can we afford it now or maybe later. Etc

Delayed decisions will cost even more.

Let's not forget the debilitating electricity issue that Pakistan faced between 2008-2013 when load-shedding lasted 18-22 hours daily, and segments of the industry shifted to Bangladesh and it's still there.

Nobody wants to return to that sort of situation again.

Our current need is only 30000ish mw. While our installed capacity is 60000 mw.

Our installed capacity is 48 GW.

Demand of electricty (from national grid) for agricuture, residential, and indistry have declinded due to soalr. And further declining.

I must disagree.

I just spoke with my relatives in Pakistan and they said they're facing load shedding even today, on the day Eid.

Do we really need to expand the production capacity now ? While we are still enjoying additional capacity of 30000 mw more than our need ?

We're not enjoying anything. If there was additional capacity that isn't being utilised, there would be no load-shedding and instead each household in Pakistan would have 24/7 electricity.

Why are China and Germany as two examples, increasing their overall electricity capacity year after year with no end in sight?

Here's a good read from the IEA on the global demand.

Electricity demand growth surged in 2024​

Global electricity demand increased by 4.3% in 2024, a step change from the 2.5% growth seen in 2023. The average pace of electricity demand growth from 2010 to 2023 was 2.7%, double the rate of total energy demand growth over the same period. Electrification picked up across sectors, raising electricity demand in most major economies in 2024.​

China accounted for the largest share of electricity consumption growth, but increases were seen globally​

Almost all regions saw an acceleration in the rate of electricity consumption growth in 2024 compared with the annual average from 2012 to 2022. Globally, electricity consumption increased by 1 080 TWh, nearly two times the annual average of the past decade.​

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Thakkay patwari, we already have more then enough capacity. 45000mw but utilization is under 40%. or kitna dabona hai is mulk ko

Here in the UK, our electricity capacity is 110 GWs for a population of 67 million.

In the last 3 decades I have faced power cuts on 4-5 occasions due to extreme stormy weather.

In Pakistan, the installed electricity capacity is 48 GW for a population of 257 million. Let's add 50 GW solar to this, taking the total 98 GW. Can you say Pakistanis have no power cuts today?

 

[Bilal]

must disagree.

I just spoke with my relatives in Pakistan and they said they're facing load shedding even today, on the day Eid.

As per Owais Laghari. The load shedding is economic and only on feeders with higher theft rate.

They plan to bring the data collection down to PMT level to isolate the load shedding (due to theft) down to PMT level. Of course, recently also due to RLNG.

Only other bottleneck is north south transmission bottleneck.