PM Shehbaz Approves $6 Billion Refinery Upgrades Plan

[Jango]

Not only due to faith and culture, but history, partition and hindutva

So why not the same animosity and grudge towards the British who practically ruled over you like cattle? Don't think they are Muslims either.

 

[Hazard]

To be honest $6B isn't a huge amount, or atleast it shouldn't be given Pakistan's size. If our country wasn't corrupt to the core, I'm sure a lot of overseas Pakistanis (myself included) would be lining up to invest in a project like this - it benefits our country and our pockets, win/win for both but until Pakistan gets its house in order, consider increasing the size of the begging bowl.

 

[Starlord]

Given how the countries with Oil are getting torn apart, thank God we don't have any oil just some pockets here and there, but hopefully that oil refinery that KSA is teasing us for years finally materialize. But unfortunately our internal situation is not good because half a country ready to blow themselves up on moments notice.

 

[hussain0216]

Tell me in your world, do you live outside of a cupboard?

This man ki ASHA crap may work in your liberal sewing circle

But in the real world their is a deep deep animosity between us and the Hindus

Pretending this is not the case is disingenuous

Again maybe it's more intense amongst Kashmiri,

 

[Owaiz]

I know but Hormuz war likely changed equation. In 3 months don't be surprised if location is Gwadar.

I mean they literally said they have selected sites in the GCC ( UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia) that bypass the Strait of Hormuz for that very reason, but dream on.

Do you really think American investors, even if they were not from the Modi-loving Gujarati American Indian community, have Pakistan even in their consideration set when they are considering setting up a refinery in Saudi Arabia , UAE or Oman.

 

[GatlingGunZ]

@peagle
THAR COAL doesn't look viable for Pakistan.
Break-even point is insanely high.


Building a 100,000 BPD coal-to-liquids (CTL) plant using Pakistan's Thar Lignite coal will require a significantly higher CAPEX ($8.5 billion to $11.5 billion USD) compared to using typical Indian bituminous coal varieties ($6.0 billion to $8.0 billion USD).The massive cost variance is driven entirely by the poor quality of Thar coal, which demands extensive preprocessing, specialized gasifiers, and outsized infrastructure.Levelized Cost per Barrel Breakdown (100,000 BPD Plant)

Cost Component	Indian Coal Plant (Total: $60 – $70)	Thar Lignite Plant (Total: $90 – $105)
Coal Feedstock	$20 – $25 (Low cost due to cheap domestic mining by Coal India Limited.)	$25 – $35 (Low base cost, but requires double the tonnage due to massive moisture content.)
CAPEX Amortization	$22 – $25 (Based on a $7 Billion plant baseline over a standard 25-year lifecycle.)	$32 – $36 (Higher capital recovery charge due to the $10 Billion inflated plant cost.)
Plant OPEX	$15 – $18 (Standard costs for catalysts, ash management, and labor.)	$25 – $30 (Outsized spending on continuous coal drying and heavy water recycling.)
Carbon Taxes / Credits	+$3 to $5 (or lower with state subsidies)	+$8 to $10 (Higher emissions per barrel due to drying lignite)

Key Economic TakeawaysThe Indian Advantage

• []Market Viability: With standard global crude oil hovering between $75 and $95 per barrel, an Indian CTL plant operating at $65/barrel yields a comfortable profit margin.[]Government Subsidy Cushion: India’s financial incentives and viability gap funding can shave an extra $5 to $7 per barrel off the CAPEX amortization cost, lowering the actual breakeven even further.

The Thar Challenge

• []High Breakeven Risk: At $95+ per barrel, a Thar-based plant is highly vulnerable to international oil price drops. If global crude drops below $80, the plant runs at a massive net loss.[]The Scale Dilemma: To remain viable, a Thar plant requires massive, uninterrupted mining scale to push raw lignite extraction costs to absolute rock bottom.

 

[GatlingGunZ]

@SoulSpokesman
Check below

@peagle
THAR COAL doesn't look viable for Pakistan.
Break-even point is insanely high.


Building a 100,000 BPD coal-to-liquids (CTL) plant using Pakistan's Thar Lignite coal will require a significantly higher CAPEX ($8.5 billion to $11.5 billion USD) compared to using typical Indian bituminous coal varieties ($6.0 billion to $8.0 billion USD).The massive cost variance is driven entirely by the poor quality of Thar coal, which demands extensive preprocessing, specialized gasifiers, and outsized infrastructure.Levelized Cost per Barrel Breakdown (100,000 BPD Plant)

Cost Component	Indian Coal Plant (Total: $60 – $70)	Thar Lignite Plant (Total: $90 – $105)
Coal Feedstock	$20 – $25 (Low cost due to cheap domestic mining by Coal India Limited.)	$25 – $35 (Low base cost, but requires double the tonnage due to massive moisture content.)
CAPEX Amortization	$22 – $25 (Based on a $7 Billion plant baseline over a standard 25-year lifecycle.)	$32 – $36 (Higher capital recovery charge due to the $10 Billion inflated plant cost.)
Plant OPEX	$15 – $18 (Standard costs for catalysts, ash management, and labor.)	$25 – $30 (Outsized spending on continuous coal drying and heavy water recycling.)
Carbon Taxes / Credits	+$3 to $5 (or lower with state subsidies)	+$8 to $10 (Higher emissions per barrel due to drying lignite)

Key Economic TakeawaysThe Indian Advantage

• []Market Viability: With standard global crude oil hovering between $75 and $95 per barrel, an Indian CTL plant operating at $65/barrel yields a comfortable profit margin.[]Government Subsidy Cushion: India’s financial incentives and viability gap funding can shave an extra $5 to $7 per barrel off the CAPEX amortization cost, lowering the actual breakeven even further.

The Thar Challenge

• []High Breakeven Risk: At $95+ per barrel, a Thar-based plant is highly vulnerable to international oil price drops. If global crude drops below $80, the plant runs at a massive net loss.[]The Scale Dilemma: To remain viable, a Thar plant requires massive, uninterrupted mining scale to push raw lignite extraction costs to absolute rock bottom.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@peagle

Tell me in your world, do you live outside of a cupboard?

Brother Hussain lives in his cab.

Regards

 

[Owaiz]

@peagle
THAR COAL doesn't look viable for Pakistan.
Break-even point is insanely high.


Building a 100,000 BPD coal-to-liquids (CTL) plant using Pakistan's Thar Lignite coal will require a significantly higher CAPEX ($8.5 billion to $11.5 billion USD) compared to using typical Indian bituminous coal varieties ($6.0 billion to $8.0 billion USD).The massive cost variance is driven entirely by the poor quality of Thar coal, which demands extensive preprocessing, specialized gasifiers, and outsized infrastructure.Levelized Cost per Barrel Breakdown (100,000 BPD Plant)

Cost Component	Indian Coal Plant (Total: $60 – $70)	Thar Lignite Plant (Total: $90 – $105)
Coal Feedstock	$20 – $25 (Low cost due to cheap domestic mining by Coal India Limited.)	$25 – $35 (Low base cost, but requires double the tonnage due to massive moisture content.)
CAPEX Amortization	$22 – $25 (Based on a $7 Billion plant baseline over a standard 25-year lifecycle.)	$32 – $36 (Higher capital recovery charge due to the $10 Billion inflated plant cost.)
Plant OPEX	$15 – $18 (Standard costs for catalysts, ash management, and labor.)	$25 – $30 (Outsized spending on continuous coal drying and heavy water recycling.)
Carbon Taxes / Credits	+$3 to $5 (or lower with state subsidies)	+$8 to $10 (Higher emissions per barrel due to drying lignite)

Key Economic TakeawaysThe Indian Advantage

• []Market Viability: With standard global crude oil hovering between $75 and $95 per barrel, an Indian CTL plant operating at $65/barrel yields a comfortable profit margin.[]Government Subsidy Cushion: India’s financial incentives and viability gap funding can shave an extra $5 to $7 per barrel off the CAPEX amortization cost, lowering the actual breakeven even further.

The Thar Challenge

• []High Breakeven Risk: At $95+ per barrel, a Thar-based plant is highly vulnerable to international oil price drops. If global crude drops below $80, the plant runs at a massive net loss.[]The Scale Dilemma: To remain viable, a Thar plant requires massive, uninterrupted mining scale to push raw lignite extraction costs to absolute rock bottom.

CTL may appear to be viable for Indian coal in the current scenario, but the fundamental reality is that crude oil prices are extremely volatile and crude futures went to negative territory during Covid. Because of the extremely high CTL capital costs, they are many other uses for coal which offer far superior risk-adjusted economic returns. CTL usually only makes sense for strategic purposes, like war ( Nazi Germany) or embargoes ( apartheid South Africa) or generally to have the ability to produce oil domestically in an emergency.

 

[GatlingGunZ]

CTL may appear to be viable for Indian coal in the current scenario, but the fundamental reality is that crude oil prices are extremely volatile and crude futures went to negative territory during Covid. Because of the extremely high CTL capital costs, they are many other uses for coal which offer far superior risk-adjusted economic returns. CTL usually only makes sense for strategic purposes, like war ( Nazi Germany) or embargoes ( apartheid South Africa) or generally to have the ability to produce oil domestically in an emergency.

This CTL contains very less impurities like asphalt, sulphur , heavy fuel etc, not even sweet crude comes near it.
At 60$ CTL can match 45-50$ pricing of crude. COVID was an anomaly. You don't create long term projects by thinking about anomalies.
You can go and check that for how long crude dipped below 45$. OPEC cartel can't even think about undercutting this price for long term.

 

[Owaiz]

This CTL contains very less impurities like asphalt, sulphur , heavy fuel etc, not even sweet crude comes near it.
At 60$ CTL can match 45-50$ pricing of crude. COVID was an anomaly. You don't create long term projects by thinking about anomalies.
You can go and check that for how long crude dipped below 45$. OPEC cartel can't even think about undercutting this price for long term.

How many investors in India have put up ~10 bn USD needed to build a plant based on those assumptions so far ? And you cannot ignore the opportunity cost of using coal for less risky, more lucrative purposes. You think actual investors and governments don't have access to ChatGPT like you do? If CTL made financial sense, India would already be doing it on a commerical scale.

 

[GatlingGunZ]

How many investors in India have put up ~10 bn USD needed to build a plant based on those assumptions so far ? And you cannot ignore the opportunity cost of using coal for less risky, more lucrative purposes. You think actual investors and governments don't have access to ChatGPT like you do? If CTL made financial sense, India would already be doing it on a commerical scale.

Google AI-
" The combined annual net profit (Profit After Tax) of these nine major state-owned energy and hydrocarbon PSUs is ₹1,92,306 crore (approximately $23 billion) based on their audited full-year financial "

10B$ is chump change for energy security and prevention of dollar outflow. 150k bpd means 4B $ of annual outflow is prevented at 70$ per barrel.

 

[Owaiz]

This CTL contains very less impurities like asphalt, sulphur , heavy fuel etc, not even sweet crude comes near it.
At 60$ CTL can match 45-50$ pricing of crude. COVID was an anomaly. You don't create long term projects by thinking about anomalies.
You can go and check that for how long crude dipped below 45$. OPEC cartel can't even think about undercutting this price for long term.

How many investors in India have put up ~10 bn USD needed to build a plant based on those assumptions so far ? And you cannot ignore the opportunity cost of using coal for less risky, more lucrative purposes. You think actual investors and governments don't have access to ChatGPT like you do? If CTL made financial sense, India would already be doing it on a commerical scale.

Google AI-
" The combined annual net profit (Profit After Tax) of these nine major state-owned energy and hydrocarbon PSUs is ₹1,92,306 crore (approximately $23 billion) based on their audited full-year financial "

10B$ is chump change for energy security and prevention of dollar outflow. 100k bpd means 2.5B $ of annual outflow is prevented at 70$ per barrel.

My question was who has actually invested this money so far , not who has the capacity to do so. You are actually proving my point. Despite no constraint on the availability of funds, there have been no investments in commercial CTL because it does not meet the risk adjusted return threshold of investors or even the government, which often underwrites unviable projects for national security or strategic purposes.

 

[GatlingGunZ]

My question was who has actually invested this money so far , not who has the capacity to do so. You are actually proving my point.

Just like your govt is investing in upgrading refineries. Indian PSUs will invest as per GOI's orders.
Already 4B$ coal to gas project have been approved. If Crude price stayed more volatile we will initiate same for CTL too.

India’s $4 Billion Coal Gasification Scheme Strengthens Energy Security Amid Middle East Crisis | BowerGroupAsia

The BGA India Team, led by Managing Director Anuj Gupta, prepared an update for clients …

bowergroupasia.com

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2289975&reg=48&lang=1

 

[Owaiz]

Just like your govt is investing in upgrading refineries. Indian PSUs will invest as per GOI's orders.
Already 4B$ coal to gas project have been approved. If Crude price stayed more volatile we will initiate same for CTL too.

India’s $4 Billion Coal Gasification Scheme Strengthens Energy Security Amid Middle East Crisis | BowerGroupAsia

The BGA India Team, led by Managing Director Anuj Gupta, prepared an update for clients …

bowergroupasia.com

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2289975&reg=48&lang=1

Dude, do you understand the difference between coal to gas and coal to liquid ? You keep posting new data that disproves your own arguments . Stop relying on LLM AI and try to use common sense and natural intelligence if you have it.

The question is very simple : if CTL is viable at $45/barrel for India, as you claim, why hasn't the Indian government already invested hundreds of billions of dollars into it to reduce its biggest financial and strategic import dependence?