POST WAR assessment of recent conflict.

[Waz]

I have come to conclude a few facts

1) As Najan Sethi mentioned last night. The war between Pakistan and India is no longer between the two nations. It will always be India vs Pakistan and China. For example the cyber attack and the the blackout of grid stations came from China and not Pakistan. So it was actively involved at some capacity and may have been involved deeply if the matter escalated

2) Pakistan showed that it has the ability to penetrate deep inside India despite their very good Air Defense system of S-400

3) Pakistan demonstrated that PAF is technologically superior to IAF and the myth of Superior IAF is busted twice, once in 2019 and now in 2025.

4) Pakistan’s Air defence was surprisingly very potent but more investment is needed to minimise the damage

5) The reputation of J-10C have increased by 100 times. It means everyone will fear the J-35 and Pakistan will likely be the first buyer in the near future.

Air defence is the key here.

 

[sultan]

Part of air defence strategy should be to develop and deploy military decoys. May be should do it in house. Let's face it no matter the how good air defence systems might be. There will always be some munitions that would get thru.

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[Watandar]

Thanks for this timely and needed thread. My notes are :

1) Indians truly believed they were only attacking "terrorist camps" in Pakistan and that the country was so divided, weak and outdated that Pakistan would at most fire a few shells over the LOC and then immediately agree to Indian demand to "de-escalate". India's unchecked hubris and Hindutva hate came to bit them in the rear.

2) The Pakistani awam showed amazing unity and courage and proved the X factor in this fight. It gave a huge boost to the armed forces and was something India was absolutely not expecting. Same awam had earlier deflated Indian pre-war psyops and propaganda campaigns with memes, much to frustration of Indian online trolls.

3) The Pakistani higher command was as usual caught with its pants down, slow in decision making and paying more attention to what West/Mideast was doing than actually combating India. They remained reactive to Indian plans rather than taking the initiative and were ultimately bailed out by the awam, lower ranks of the air force and American intervention late in the game.

4) We need a neutral and fact based study on how effective the Pakistani drones, missiles and air attacks on India were. It is the only thing that is ultimately going to deter these crazed Hindutvas in the future.

5) Pakistan air defense seems to have done well in first couple of days and then seemed to fail on the third, resulting in attacks on many airbases. This leads to a larger point that we dont really know the endurance of Pakistani forces that are not Army, due to resource allocation.

6) The international narrative in elite western media (CNN, NYT, BBC) continues to be contemptous of Pakistan and suggests the reason for the ceasefire is desperate nuke signaling by Pakistan on Friday, which led the previously hands-off Americans to intervene. They are also attributing the Pakistani successes more to China than Pakistan itself and portraying the whole encounter as a prelude to West-China clashes than what people of Pakistan are going through.

 

[Michael]

Air defence is the key here.

Regarding air defense, maybe some of my thoughts are a bit different.

1, Pakistan is currently procuring high level air defense systems. These air defense systems are highly capable, but they are also expensive. An air defense missile is not cheap. And the number of Pakistan's medium- and short-range air defense systems is too small, resulting in too many blind spots in the defense.

2. People's awareness of air defense is low. From the social media public video, a large number of ordinary Pakistani people are lack of air defense awareness and war consciousness. When air strikes come, a large number of people do not avoid, but go to the spectators. When their own troops were launching missiles, the public actually watched from the side of the launch vehicle. Many even took videos on the spot and posted them directly to social media. They don't seem to realize that the enemy can easily pinpoint return fire through video ......

All local governments in China have a special organization called “People's Air Defense Office”. They are responsible for planning all air defense facilities and buildings in the city. Any building must be planned and inspected by them before construction can begin. Every year, we conduct air-raid drills.

 

[mulj]

On the subject. There is an analytical article on the Chinese web that may be relevant. I will paraphrase the general meaning of this article.

In the beginning, China actually had indigenous advanced air defense systems. However, the area we need to defend is so large that there is a severe shortage of new domestic air defense systems being produced. So, China purchased six S-400 air defense systems from Russia for a total of $3 billion. (The total price tag for India's purchase of five S-400 air defense systems is $6 billion.)​

​

When the PLA received the S-400 air defense systems and tested them, they found that their true capabilities were far from what Russia claimed. In particular, the radar's ability to discriminate was very poor. It is much worse than China's own air defense systems.​

At that time, PLA had considered upgrading and modifying these S-400 air defense systems on its own using Chinese parts. However, after careful accounting, it was found that the cost was too high and there was no value in upgrading.​

Therefore, PLA transferred these S-400 air defense systems to secondary areas to perform operational readiness air defense tasks, while the operational readiness air defense tasks in China's main areas were undertaken by China's own air defense systems.------The original plan was to use these S-400s for air defense missions in key regions.​

Both China and India have S-300/400 air defense systems. So PLA is fully aware of the real capability of these air defense systems and not the paper strength claimed by Russia/India. So, PLA is fully aware of how to circumvent these air defense systems.
So, due to the presence of Chinese military advisors, Pakistan can choose its attack methods and attack weapons very accurately.

This is essential information as it could save lot of resources for planning precise operation and focusing on other medium and short range enemy systems.

 

[Princeps]

At risk of repeating what others have said, our SSM v SAM game was not on top. A couple of drones and Fatah-1 simply won't cut it, we needed to fire cruise missiles and Fatah-2s as well.
PAF completely obliterated the IAF at aerial combat on day one but after this we became too soft on them fearing escalation.

 

[mulj]

Of course not but for survivability it's a must.

It has its disadvantages, one precise impact and air base would be clogged for while and deprive you of airplanes stationed there for time being, i am more inclined to scattered "land aircraft carriers" concept with secondary and terciary back up airfields, i think it is better this way as you can always count on your own swarms for counter attacks and defence, risk of losing some planes on ground is justified as long as you have ability to maintain air superiority.

 

[Michael]

Well there is always option to buy 2nd Hand Frigates in China and equip them with Local Missiles use for 10 years [Short Term Need]

Jinnah Class I think will take 5-7 years no sooner May be 10 years

Once all Jinnah Class ships induct , you can retire the short term lease ships

I think I suggested few times 3-4 years ago few times to hold 5-6
2nd hand ships from China to Supplement fleet , on Lease. China had I think 6-8 Frigates parked on their port not being used, constructed in 2000's - 90 meter long decent ships, which also can hold helicopters. These may are may be similar standard as our OHP ships, which Navy uses

On other hand , many people did suggest Type054
(Brand new is better option) of course you have wait for construction
of course the Type054 Caliber Ship is high end world class Frigate
VLS + world class radar etc

I don't know why, but it seems that the Pakistani public and military don't like used weaponry.

The weaponry that China is still producing is more advanced weaponry.
J-10C is the cheapest fighter of PLAAF;
054A is the cheapest frigate in the PLA Navy;
the 039B is the cheapest submarine in the PLA Navy;
......
But these equipment are not cheap for Pakistan.

As I suggested long ago. the PLA navy still has a large number of type 056A. the earlier type 056s have all been handed over to the Chinese Maritime Police. Currently, some of these type 056A have been retired early for resale to other countries. type 056A is ASW enhanced and very suitable for Pakistan's offshore defense. The price is also very cheap.

PLA Navy also has some old warships. They have been upgraded and refitted in the mid-term, and their combat performance is not bad. They can also be decommissioned early for resale.

 

[hussain0216]

At risk of repeating what others have said, our SSM v SAM game was not on top. A couple of drones and Fatah-1 simply won't cut it, we needed to fire cruise missiles and Fatah-2s as well.
PAF completely obliterated the IAF at aerial combat on day one but after this we became too soft on them fearing escalation.

I think that was more choice, the point we were in our perceived escalation ladder they were comfortable using fatahs

Although I did hear some babur were fired

If the conflict continued I believe we would have pushed deeper and deeper into India utilising cruise missiles

 

[Jango007]

I guess our several TPS 77 were destroyed/damaged. This shouldn't have happened.

Not True. Unless more details and clear images are released we will never know.

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Things to notice:

Radars were hit by very small explosive projectiles which are most likely drones.

No damage worth mentioning at Noor Khan/ Sargodha/ Rahim Yar Khan.

No aircrafts loss any where but we lost five brave soilders at Bholari.

This is really all I could get from Indian sources.


Pasrur radar....... hit seems to indicate little or no demage....Most likely a drone hit with very limited payload.

Chunian radar...... Extremely low quality pic...impossible to tell what we are looking at .

Arifwala radar...... Again some low intensity demage possible but too low quality to tell.

Sargodha base : Almost comical ...Two holes on the runway ...which before they had. a chance to take pics Pakistan had already filled!!!!

Rahim Yar Khan airport: Civilian target. Emergency landing strip and airport used mostly by Arab Royal families. No military infrastructure.

Nur Khan: One Structure destroyed....No loss of life or equipment visible.

Sukkar: Only clear radar damage/ destrotyed. Temporary aircraft parking shed seems to have collapsed and clearly no fire or anything parked undeneath it.

Bholari airfield: Only location where PAF suffered loss of life. 5 Shaheeds who were taking shelter in the building.

Jakobabad....Again a building structure that is demaged.


Things to notice:

Radars were hit by very small explosive projectiles which are most likely drones.

No damage worth mentioning at Noor Khan/ Sargodha/ Rahim Yar Khan.

No aircrafts loss any where but we lost five brave soilders at Bholari.

This is really all I could get from Indian sources.

 

[Waterboy]

No aircrafts loss any where but we lost five brave soilders at Bholari

Saab 2000 was damaged though

 

[Waz]

It has its disadvantages, one precise impact and air base would be clogged for while and deprive you of airplanes stationed there for time being, i am more inclined to scattered "land aircraft carriers" concept with secondary and terciary back up airfields, i think it is better this way as you can always count on your own swarms for counter attacks and defence, risk of losing some planes on ground is justified as long as you have ability to maintain air superiority.

How's the land carrier thing work?
With being underground you can have multiple exists and tunnels can go for miles, which negates the impact of strikes.

 

[Waz]

Saab 2000 was damaged though

No evidence for that, please also take it to the conflict thread.

 

[mulj]

Not True. Unless more details and clear images are released we will never know.

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Things to notice:

Radars were hit by very small explosive projectiles which are most likely drones.

No damage worth mentioning at Noor Khan/ Sargodha/ Rahim Yar Khan.

No aircrafts loss any where but we lost five brave soilders at Bholari.

This is really all I could get from Indian sources.


Pasrur radar....... hit seems to indicate little or no demage....Most likely a drone hit with very limited payload.

Chunian radar...... Extremely low quality pic...impossible to tell what we are looking at .

Arifwala radar...... Again some low intensity demage possible but too low quality to tell.

Sargodha base : Almost comical ...Two holes on the runway ...which before they had. a chance to take pics Pakistan had already filled!!!!

Rahim Yar Khan airport: Civilian target. Emergency landing strip and airport used mostly by Arab Royal families. No military infrastructure.

Nur Khan: One Structure destroyed....No loss of life or equipment visible.

Sukkar: Only clear radar damage/ destrotyed. Temporary aircraft parking shed seems to have collapsed and clearly no fire or anything parked undeneath it.

Bholari airfield: Only location where PAF suffered loss of life. 5 Shaheeds who were taking shelter in the building.

Jakobabad....Again a building structure that is demaged.


Things to notice:

Radars were hit by very small explosive projectiles which are most likely drones.

No damage worth mentioning at Noor Khan/ Sargodha/ Rahim Yar Khan.

No aircrafts loss any where but we lost five brave soilders at Bholari.

This is really all I could get from Indian sources.

If this information proved to be correct and i think probably it is, then SHORADs and SPAAGs are must have integrated within larger network to cover beside drones also cruise and if possible hypersonic incomes.
Systems like this are affordable for Pakistan but as you implied problem of your own saturation remains which makes it necessary to have huge capacity for production of ammo and short range missiles.

 

[Waz]

Regarding air defense, maybe some of my thoughts are a bit different.

1, Pakistan is currently procuring high level air defense systems. These air defense systems are highly capable, but they are also expensive. An air defense missile is not cheap. And the number of Pakistan's medium- and short-range air defense systems is too small, resulting in too many blind spots in the defense.

2. People's awareness of air defense is low. From the social media public video, a large number of ordinary Pakistani people are lack of air defense awareness and war consciousness. When air strikes come, a large number of people do not avoid, but go to the spectators. When their own troops were launching missiles, the public actually watched from the side of the launch vehicle. Many even took videos on the spot and posted them directly to social media. They don't seem to realize that the enemy can easily pinpoint return fire through video ......

All local governments in China have a special organization called “People's Air Defense Office”. They are responsible for planning all air defense facilities and buildings in the city. Any building must be planned and inspected by them before construction can begin. Every year, we conduct air-raid drills.

The blind spots is a problematic thing, but it needs to be plugged. As you said funds limit things.
Agreed about the public they should be no where near. This was something that could have been easily taken care of. I hope civil forces take note.