power generation and capacity expansion news

[mythbuster]

Brother you don’t plan 70 billion dollar spend on hopes, wishes and vague ideas.

Where is the projection of EV adoption rate. How many EVs will be on the road, how much they will exactly consume?

Which policy is going to push people to electrifying heating and cooling. What will be the quantum of that.

Why system efficiency can’t be improved to minimize losses.

What will be the impact of distributed power generation (exact numbers) and battery capacity expansion?

You are not looking at the big picture and are bogged down in unnecessary details ...our per capita electricity consumption is very low , as sainthood said if our economy grows at 4 /5 percent clip and our EV policies get on track our electricity needs will grow exponentially...70 billion dollars investment in power generation is peanuts if our economy takes off

 

[Asif]

as long as
1. The current contracts of thermal power plants are not renewed,
2.. Future contracts are only take and pay,
3. Ban on thermal captive power plants by industries,
3. and future capacity added is via hydel, nuclear, wind and solar,
then with the improvement in the grid and transmission capacity, we should be good.

our problem is multifold, poor transmission and grid, capacity payments and contracts running till 2035, less efficient captive power plants and high LNG/oil prices. A combination of these lead to higher foreign exchange spent on oil/LNG, and expensive per unit cost of existing electricity produced via LNG, Oil and imported coal. Though the situation has some what improved after "willful" renegotiated contracts but it is still expensive power being purchased by the grid.

 

[puttputt]

You are not looking at the big picture and are bogged down in unnecessary details ...our per capita electricity consumption is very low , as sainthood said if our economy grows at 4 /5 percent clip and our EV policies get on track our electricity needs will grow exponentially...70 billion dollars investment in power generation is peanuts if our economy takes off

Is that the bet you wanna make? With Pakistan!?

 

[mythbuster]

Is that the bet you wanna make? With Pakistan!?

Certainly , without any hesitation.

 

[Jango]

You are not looking at the big picture and are bogged down in unnecessary details ...our per capita electricity consumption is very low , as sainthood said if our economy grows at 4 /5 percent clip and our EV policies get on track our electricity needs will grow exponentially...70 billion dollars investment in power generation is peanuts if our economy takes off

If I suddenly stumble upon 20 million USD tomorrow I can invest it and leave my job.

We've been waiting for that takeof since 2015 my man...you want to waste another decade? You still can't evacuate the existing electricity, and frankly neither pay for it. You are already devising ways so that consumer basically is forced to buy expensive electricity...aur kia chahtay ho?

At this point I do not even think it's the babus who are coming up with these ideas, but consultants which are milking the national exchequer for BS presentations.

 

[mythbuster]

If I suddenly stumble upon 20 million USD tomorrow I can invest it and leave my job.

We've been waiting for that takeof since 2015 my man...you want to waste another decade? You still can't evacuate the existing electricity, and frankly neither pay for it. You are already devising ways so that consumer basically is forced to buy expensive electricity...aur kia chahtay ho?

At this point I do not even think it's the babus who are coming up with these ideas, but consultants which are milking the national exchequer for BS presentations.

Our per capita electricity consumption is roughly equal to that of Bangladesh and less than half of India....you making judgement on the assumption that nothing is going to change in Pakistan and it's destined to stay in the pit forever....I can't share your pessimism.

 

[Jango]

Our per capita electricity consumption is roughly equal to that of Bangladesh and less than half of India....you making judgement on the assumption that nothing is going to change in Pakistan and it's destined to stay in the pit forever....I can't share your pessimism.

It's not about pessimism, it's a simple matter of cost benefit analysis which anybody in their sophomore should be able to do.

You already have excess energy production. Your problem is one energy evacuation, and two the fact that you don't even have money to pay for fuel. What do you think is the better way to spend money? Keep doing what we have been doing the past 20 years and accumulate more debt which balloons our circular debt, or actually fix the root cause our energy expensive?

You can't share my pessimism, at least share some basic math.

 

[Prophecy]

Our per capita electricity consumption is roughly equal to that of Bangladesh and less than half of India....you making judgement on the assumption that nothing is going to change in Pakistan and it's destined to stay in the pit forever....I can't share your pessimism.

For everything to materialize in this optimism of yours to the point of delusion that people in Pakistan will somehow afford to run AC or EV (out of reach for even upper middle class) on grid is itself flawed.

Electricity is not affordable in Pakistan anymore. It's just people businesses who are planning/saving to go solar or those who can't get solar due to various reasons such as space in apartment or offices are trapped with grid.

 

[mythbuster]

It's not about pessimism, it's a simple matter of cost benefit analysis which anybody in their sophomore should be able to do.

You already have excess energy production. Your problem is one energy evacuation, and two the fact that you don't even have money to pay for fuel. What do you think is the better way to spend money? Keep doing what we have been doing the past 20 years and accumulate more debt which balloons our circular debt, or actually fix the root cause our energy expensive?

You can't share my pessimism, at least share some basic math.

None of the energy projects envisioned Will be based on imported fuel , it will be nuclear and renewables ... it's not that all the new energy projects will pop up simultaneously and we will be drowned in oversupply..... from next year onwards Pakistan will enter the rapid growth phase and present oversupply will turn into deficiency in couple of years......for how long do you intend to punish the country with your circular debt danda ?

 

[Bilal]

You are not looking at the big picture and are bogged down in unnecessary details ...our per capita electricity consumption is very low , as sainthood said if our economy grows at 4 /5 percent clip and our EV policies get on track our electricity needs will grow exponentially...70 billion dollars investment in power generation is peanuts if our economy takes off

Even if it goes exponential we have enough spare capacity and will have enough time to react when those buffers are expended. Plus our total vehicle base is tiny EVs will only be a fraction of it. All of this while distributed solar (and soon battery) is increasing.

What is being done is that without quantifying that demand (at ministry level no less). The ministries own numbers are projecting huge capacity payment increase. We can have all the electricity in the world but at unaffordable prices no one can buy it.


We did the same over capacities in late 90s and 2010s and now struggling to consume it and pay off the debts.

 

[Jango]

from next year onwards Pakistan will enter the rapid growth phase and present oversupply will turn into deficiency in couple of years

I just cannot resist



This country truly runs on hopes and dreams.

 

[Oscar]

Maa ki Duaaa is what’s keeping this country afloat .

Get ready for massive corruption and just like the past IPP fiasco created by PPP and Patwari Muslim league they want to make sure they will have a source of income even after they are removed from power .

What Pakistan needs is revolution in power production and transmission …… Pakistan is still paying premium for obsolete power plants that we signed up 30 years back due to massive corruption .

We are about to repeat the same mistake but at even bigger scale ….

But that is what the PML(N) excels at - grandiose infrastructure where they can get kickback participation (aside from corruption) with the projects. What is at the core an oligarchy will return to its core function.

 

[HAIDER]

It's not about pessimism, it's a simple matter of cost benefit analysis which anybody in their sophomore should be able to do.

You already have excess energy production. Your problem is one energy evacuation, and two the fact that you don't even have money to pay for fuel. What do you think is the better way to spend money? Keep doing what we have been doing the past 20 years and accumulate more debt which balloons our circular debt, or actually fix the root cause our energy expensive?

You can't share my pessimism, at least share some basic math.

IPP sucks billons of capacity charges every year and who are the beneficiary. What a joke..only in Pakistan

 

[RealNapster]

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In my opinion, the only investment that our power sector require is in our transmission system. Make multiple mini grids. Moderanise them. That's it. The power plants that we currently tky have, are enough to fulfill our energy needs for atleast next 10 years. We have over-capacity. That's why the issue of circular debt exists.

 

[RealNapster]

We will always need more electricity. Period

There is a concept in economics called sensitivity analysis. In this we determine when does option B become more better than option A.

Let's say today you need 5000 mw. This will cost you say 1 billion dollars. But 10 years later you will need additional 5000 mw which at that time will cost 0.8 billion dollars.
That's the first option.

But second option is that you can directly build capacity of 10000 mw now. Costing 2 billion dollars.


Now tell me which option is best, economically ??? Build full capacity now or go staged ? When does option A become better then option B ?


All the decisions should be made based on these analysis. How much will each option cost. How much economic pressure will each option put us into. Can we afford it now or maybe later. Etc

Our current need is only 30000ish mw. While our installed capacity is 60000 mw. Demand of electricty (from national grid) for agricuture, residential, and indistry have declinded due to soalr. And further declining.


Do we really need to expand the production capacity now ? While we are still enjoying additional capacity of 30000 mw more than our need ?