Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates

[Yommie]

@Viet @AZ_HighCountry

France and Germany which are the bosses of EU betray Zelensky.

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[Yommie]

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[Yommie]

cheap small drones continue inflicting heavy losses on APCs

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[j_hungary]

That figure is conservative some sources are reporting higher than $6trn value of minerals, rare earth's, coal, iron ore etc which Russia holds.

The independent £6trn

Moscow times which is not pro putin is referencing forbes Ukraine they quote $15trn of which 70% of the resources are in Donetsk and Luhansk regions which are partly controlled by Russia.

Ukraine says more than 20% of its mineral wealth sits under territory controlled by putin

Well, again, 6 trillion sitting in Russian occupied territories means multiple ten of trillions of dollars of resource, let's say Russia had 25% of Ukrainian resource, and it's worth 6 trillion, that's 24 trillion dollars' worth Ukraine have, that's more than some oil producing country and China, and yet Ukraine remain a very poor country, we aren't in 1980 where we don't know where those deposit were and how to extract it, we are at mid-2020. If there are that much resources, Ukraine would have been very rich already.

So I don't think 6 trillion is possible, I quoted a graph somewhere in last couple of pages saying Ukrainian have around 12 trillion worth of natural resource (I can't find it now, it's a chance encounter), that was from some Ukrainian ministry. I would think that is a better estimate.

its been pro west for over a decade. There is a difference in being pro west and having a military alliance with the west, that's not happening. No Nato membership, no western troops in Ukraine, no security guarantee if Russia attacks again.

Then there would be no talk, because what you are describing is a total capitulation for Ukraine in most Ukrainian mind, they would rather fight and died than they will agree to this term, I mean what the talk for then? And if the Russian can't do it at the first 3 months when Ukrainian have absolutely nothing, the Ukrainian will try to defend themselves now because Russian Forces now is not the same Force 3 years ago. In term of equipment and troop quality, why would they talk and let Russia recoup and going back to what they were 3 years ago and finish them instead of just facing a weaker Russia Now? That would not make any sense at all........

Russia is dictating the terms, their deputy foreign minister recently reiterated what Putin asked last year must be accepted. Trump will give him what he wants because trumpy wants those natural resources.

Again, with 20% of Ukrainian territories?? Unless Lavrov is one helluva negotiator and get Ukraine to agree on surrendering everything they had with the other 80% of Ukraine independence for that 20. That's not going to go that way, because the aim for negotiation is for one party who hold major advantage over the other to give concession to the demand so both of them can accept the term. Again, with just 20% territories with a slow progress, even if US threaten to withdraw aid, the Ukrainian can wait until the next admin come into power, because it was projected the Russian aren't going to take anything outside Donbas in the next decade.

I mean with what the Russian can dictate term? Trump is a wild card and he can simply buy Ukrainian Resource off with security guarantee, which is actually what the white house said they were mauling a couple of days ago.

Access Restricted

Now I don't believe this is what Trump actually want, but that does not taken the fact out that Russian progress is so slow, the Ukrainian have time to do a wait and see before they get into any talk.

Talks on both sides HAVE TO COME WITH SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN THE FIELD, otherwise there aren't any point to talk if both sides can't inch forward on the other side. I don't see how Ukraine can dictate term as there are little progress in Kursk, and I don't see how Russia can dictate term with little progress in Donbas.

Remind me to tell you, I told you so. Zelenski days are numbered.

Oh well, many people had already said here, but so far for 3 years, I am the one that said to these people I told you so, I am the one that said Russia can't break the second defensive line and broken the entire Eastern Defence after Mariupol fall, I am the one that said Kharkiv is going to be counter attacked, I am also the one that said Lysychansk is going to be high water mark in that Russian Offensive, I am the one that predict how Kherson Counter Offensive is going to unfold, I am the one that said Porvorsk is going to hold all over winter because Russia had diverted resource to Kursk, all turn out to be true when pro-Russian people here told me otherwise and in fact, I am too sick of doing this and keep saying I've told you so that I completely lost interest on this thread. Mate, you probably need to stand in the line.

 

[Viet]

Well, again, 6 trillion sitting in Russian occupied territories means multiple ten of trillions of dollars of resource, let's say Russia had 25% of Ukrainian resource, and it's worth 6 trillion, that's 24 trillion dollars' worth Ukraine have, that's more than some oil producing country and China, and yet Ukraine remain a very poor country, we aren't in 1980 where we don't know where those deposit were and how to extract it, we are at mid-2020. If there are that much resources, Ukraine would have been very rich already.

So I don't think 6 trillion is possible, I quoted a graph somewhere in last couple of pages saying Ukrainian have around 12 trillion worth of natural resource (I can't find it now, it's a chance encounter), that was from some Ukrainian ministry. I would think that is a better estimate.



Then there would be no talk, because what you are describing is a total capitulation for Ukraine in most Ukrainian mind, they would rather fight and died than they will agree to this term, I mean what the talk for then? And if the Russian can't do it at the first 3 months when Ukrainian have absolutely nothing, the Ukrainian will try to defend themselves now because Russian Forces now is not the same Force 3 years ago. In term of equipment and troop quality, why would they talk and let Russia recoup and going back to what they were 3 years ago and finish them instead of just facing a weaker Russia Now? That would not make any sense at all........



Again, with 20% of Ukrainian territories?? Unless Lavrov is one helluva negotiator and get Ukraine to agree on surrendering everything they had with the other 80% of Ukraine independence for that 20. That's not going to go that way, because the aim for negotiation is for one party who hold major advantage over the other to give concession to the demand so both of them can accept the term. Again, with just 20% territories with a slow progress, even if US threaten to withdraw aid, the Ukrainian can wait until the next admin come into power, because it was projected the Russian aren't going to take anything outside Donbas in the next decade.

I mean with what the Russian can dictate term? Trump is a wild card and he can simply buy Ukrainian Resource off with security guarantee, which is actually what the white house said they were mauling a couple of days ago.

Access Restricted

Now I don't believe this is what Trump actually want, but that does not taken the fact out that Russian progress is so slow, the Ukrainian have time to do a wait and see before they get into any talk.

Talks on both sides HAVE TO COME WITH SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN THE FIELD, otherwise there aren't any point to talk if both sides can't inch forward on the other side. I don't see how Ukraine can dictate term as there are little progress in Kursk, and I don't see how Russia can dictate term with little progress in Donbas.



Oh well, many people had already said here, but so far for 3 years, I am the one that said to these people I told you so, I am the one that said Russia can't break the second defensive line and broken the entire Eastern Defence after Mariupol fall, I am the one that said Kharkiv is going to be counter attacked, I am also the one that said Lysychansk is going to be high water mark in that Russian Offensive, I am the one that predict how Kherson Counter Offensive is going to unfold, I am the one that said Porvorsk is going to hold all over winter because Russia had diverted resource to Kursk, all turn out to be true when pro-Russian people here told me otherwise and in fact, I am too sick of doing this and keep saying I've told you so that I completely lost interest on this thread. Mate, you probably need to stand in the line.

the russians must defeat Ukraine army before they can steal the resources. that’s still a long way.
this war can continue for another 10 years.
and even if, the russians would turn into China for technology and investment.
that in turn a nightmare for Trump and his neocons.

and that billions or trillions USD is just on paper. it’s a long way to turn dirty rocks into pure metals, because then you can turn it into hard dollars.
Viet Nam possesses 650 million tons titanium reserves. if taking market price of $1,500 a tone titanium oxide this equals almost $1 trillion. if processed into pure titanium then it can reach $5 trillion. does it make anyone in Viet Nam richer? No. because it’s just on paper.

Vietnam's titanium reserves hit over 650 mln tons---ASEAN---China Center

The ASEAN center in China

www.asean-china-center.org

 

[sutton9999]

The morale of Ukrainians will collapse soon. Within a year so, Ukraine will become a de-militarized buffer zone. While Poland occupies the western regions. Russia ideally needs to take Odssay, this is the best opportunity ever.

 

[Michael]

This PS picture, quite literally, is a metaphor for current relationships.
Let's guess. Who is going to take this picture?

 

[AjayGhatak]

I mean with what the Russian can dictate term? Trump is a wild card and he can simply buy Ukrainian Resource off with security guarantee, which is actually what the white house said they were mauling a couple of days ago.

Access Restricted

Now I don't believe this is what Trump actually want, but that does not taken the fact out that Russian progress is so slow, the Ukrainian have time to do a wait and see before they get into any talk.

My friend, at this point, words coming from whitehouse are not even worth the paper they are written on. America as a nation does not have any more credibility left. Today they will say one thing, tomorrow another.

At this point, all European countries should just build and test nuclear weapons and invest in missiles.

Indian hawks had it right in 70s and 90s. US is indeed the great Satan and deceiver.

 

[Snake]

Again, you were talking about if Russia can keep the tempo as of 2 years ago, the progress is slow for Russia is simply because either Ukrainian resistance or Russian inability to attack, or both.

You can't expect Russia to launch any offensive the scale every single year like they did back in Feb 2024 when they took Avdiivka, it's going to be a low-high-low warfare from now on, low intensity a few years, then a big attack, and then low intensity for a few years.

You're looking at this as a snapshot. We both agree Trump is here for 4 years and he is looking to drop support for Ukraine to get a deal if he as to. With the support dropping Russian advances will quicken.

Lol, if by "good will" is mounting a force that invade Ukraine by 3 sides and then subsequently bomb every inch of the Ukrainian soil they taken is good will, then I don't know what is Russian bad side. But one thing for sure, good side or not, do you agree 3 years ago the situation is more dire than now?

Dire for Ukraine yes. Zelensky's face after Trump left him out of negotiations says it all.

We are talking about war not two children playing in the playground fighting over the same McDonald Happy Meal toy, in war, you show mercy and you are dead, we are talking about KILLING A HUMAN BEING here........Nobody will come knock nicely and tell you to vacate by showing their good side to you in a war, you do that before the war in all those threatening stage.......

Look at American (NATO/5 eyes) history - Napalm in Vietnam, nuking Japan, carpet bombing Cambodia/Laos, 500k Iraqi children killed in Iraq, sponsoring terrorism in MENA, ................ , sponsoring genocide in Gaza...

Don't cry foul now.

Come back to what Russia can ask the Ukrainian to concede, they aren't going to ask Ukraine to concede not joining NATO because without NATO, even if there is cease fire, that's ball game for Ukraine, the Russian will come back again, and since they weren't NATO, there are no obligation that this time the west would have support them.

So if NATO is not an option, then you might as well conquer Ukraine now. That's the thought here if you ask any Ukrainian, that's why Russian isn't going to ask Ukraine to rop NATO bid with less than 20% of their country, sure, if US withdraw support an Ukraine start losing ground, maybe, but at this point, there aren't anything they can talk. And at this point, Trump have 4 years, 2 if Dem recapture both house in 2027, to side with Putin, so the question is, if US did in fact withdraw any support, in that 2 or 4 years would it put Ukraine in a situation that they are start going to lose everywhere? Well, we have a mini-series of that, there are no US support since April 17, the last package passed thru Senate. What had happened from April 17, 2024, til now? I don't know, I can't see into future, but as I said, if the progress remains unchanged, then there is no hope for Russia to even conquer Donbas by 2035, it wouldn't change the calculus, and we will know by the end of 2028. It's not going to decide this year in 2025

First think to understand is Russia doesn't want all of Ukraine. As long as a buffer state exists between NATO and Russia Russia has (had) no problem. This is NATO propaganda that Putin is on some conquering spree. Napoleon and the Nazis invaded Russia via Ukraine and that is the only viable way to successfully attack Russia - Ukraine will never be in NATO.

Again, Trump is here for four years but without American support what do you think will happen to Ukraine in four years?

 

[Snake]

This PS picture, quite literally, is a metaphor for current relationships.
Let's guess. Who is going to take this picture?
View attachment 103464

Xis left out

 

[j_hungary]

the russians must defeat Ukraine army before they can steal the resources. that’s still a long way.
this war can continue for another 10 years.
and even if, the russians would turn into China for technology and investment.
that in turn a nightmare for Trump and his neocons.

and that billions or trillions USD is just on paper. it’s a long way to turn dirty rocks into pure metals, because then you can turn it into hard dollars.
Viet Nam possesses 650 million tons titanium reserves. if taking market price of $1,500 a tone titanium oxide this equals almost $1 trillion. if processed into pure titanium then it can reach $5 trillion. does it make anyone in Viet Nam richer? No. because it’s just on paper.

Vietnam's titanium reserves hit over 650 mln tons---ASEAN---China Center

The ASEAN center in China

www.asean-china-center.org

Well, they had to turn to China if they want to benefit from the resource, that much is true Russia does not have the technology required to process those mineral, the Chinese is going to take a big cut.

On the other hand, that is if the West does not label them blood resource (Like blood diamond) and boycott them, there aren't many market for REM, mostly for semiconductor which only have a few selective market. If the west decided to boycott it like Chase Classification, that resource would mean nothing.

 

[j_hungary]

My friend, at this point, words coming from whitehouse are not even worth the paper they are written on. America as a nation does not have any more credibility left. Today they will say one thing, tomorrow another.

At this point, all European countries should just build and test nuclear weapons and invest in missiles.

Indian hawks had it right in 70s and 90s. US is indeed the great Satan and deceiver.

I know, I am just using this to point out how much flipflop the current administration is.

 

[j_hungary]

You're looking at this as a snapshot. We both agree Trump is here for 4 years and he is looking to drop support for Ukraine to get a deal if he as to. With the support dropping Russian advances will quicken.

The issue here is, maybe in the future, but at this point, no.

Maybe in 2 years time if and when Russia manage to take Kramatorsk or Slaviansk or both, MAYEBE then they can talk about ending the war in Russian favour,

I don't know what kind of negotiation you deal with before, you don't talk about things that "might" happen in the future as a measurement stick, if this is the case, then Ukraine would have capitulated day 3 in this war in that talk, because it work on the premises of "I am coming to get you" and 3 years later, they are still going.

Whether or not would there be a drop in Ukrainian performance without US support remain to be seen, because war are dynamic, you also need to take the attacker progress into accounts, just because Ukraine may lack US support, which now being relegated to 1/3 anyway, is things that in the future, the issue here is, Russia is NOT remotely close to be able to threaten the Kyiv Administration NOW, if so why the rush to the talk now? Why not just wait until that time has come before you talk, Ukraine still holding 80% of the land, it's not like they are going to disappear overnight.

Dire for Ukraine yes. Zelensky's face after Trump left him out of negotiations says it all.

What's that have to do with what Russian capable then and what's Russian been capable now?

On the other hand, if you know anything about how war is being fought or how tactics and strategic work, I can dissect EVERY battle in the first 6 months of this war and tell you how incompetent Russian was, and show you how they are not just showing their "good side"

But I doubt that you understand any of what I would have to say then.

Look at American (NATO/5 eyes) history - Napalm in Vietnam, nuking Japan, carpet bombing Cambodia/Laos, 500k Iraqi children killed in Iraq, sponsoring terrorism in MENA, ................ , sponsoring genocide in Gaza...

Don't cry foul now.

Cry foul? Dude, you are the one talking about Russian is showing their "good side" seems like you are the one crying foul after disappointment of the war.

And lol, you say that as if Russian have not been murdering and massacring your Muslim brethren. They kill more Muslim in Afghanistan, Dagestan and Chechen in the 20 years of war since 1989 than Israel in the last 50 years. I mean maybe they don't care, and they kill it in public and you think that's something you're okay about it? I don't know, but you have a weird sense of logic.

And finally, the myth of US killed 500,000 Iraqi children by sanction has been debunked many times. It got so bad that UNICEF have to issue an explanation on what they said

https://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles/Iraqi-death-toll-doesnt-add-up.pdf

Plus, that was an action from UN security council, which mean China, Russia, UK and France are equally as guilty if there were actually 567000 children died in Iraq due to sanction.

First think to understand is Russia doesn't want all of Ukraine. As long as a buffer state exists between NATO and Russia Russia has (had) no problem. This is NATO propaganda that Putin is on some conquering spree. Napoleon and the Nazis invaded Russia via Ukraine and that is the only viable way to successfully attack Russia - Ukraine will never be in NATO.

Again, Trump is here for four years but without American support what do you think will happen to Ukraine in four years?

What do you think will happen to Ukraine in 4 years?

Again, unless you think Russian force will be in Kyiv doorstep in the next 4 years, they weren't going to be able to ask Ukraine to concede anything. Just because what you think will happen might happen does not mean this is going to. Ukraine is a pretty big country and there are A LOT of places you can play delay action, in term of strategic progress, even if the west did not intervene back in Feb 2022, it's going to take Russia Years to consume all of Ukraine, because you don't just drive your tank over the line and call "Mission Accomplished" You need to secure the flank, secure the population, fight insurgency, establish functioning government before you can claim this is done.

US taken the entire Afghanistan in 30 days and occupy it for 20 years, and who is governing Afghanistan now? I can assure you Ukraine have established insurgency in Russian occupation area, I know because I train some of them with Recondo and Insurgency technique when I was there. This is not just tank roll over to Kyiv, game over. War don't fight like that anymore. Beside, we are talking what's going to happen AFTER Russian took Ukraine as a whole, that's going to take decades, if it was ever possible.

and 4 years is a very short time frame to conquer a country as big as Ukraine. Even if the line start crumbling today, it's going to take years for Russian to march into Kyiv, because there are numerous BUND and NUND and strong point defence in between and they need to take them one by one like how they take Bakhmut or Avdiivka. The only way the Russian can take Kyiv Overnight is when Zelenskyy just give up and dissolve the government, which is what the Russian was hoping for at the beginning of this war, and if he didn't do it then when Russia is at max strength, he certainly will not do it now.

 

[Viet]

Well, they had to turn to China if they want to benefit from the resource, that much is true Russia does not have the technology required to process those mineral, the Chinese is going to take a big cut.

On the other hand, that is if the West does not label them blood resource (Like blood diamond) and boycott them, there aren't many market for REM, mostly for semiconductor which only have a few selective market. If the west decided to boycott it like Chase Classification, that resource would mean nothing.

even if the russians won this war in 10 years and occupied all territories, Russia is and will remain weak, poor, just a regional player as Obama or a cheap gas station as McCain said it.
Putin won’t change anything for Russia.
at best they build more palaces for themselves.

the US endgame is China. Trump will do everything possible, stop short of nuclear war, to see that happen.
ultimately Ukraine must engage the US.
the new minerals deal will give 100 percent to the US. good deal for Trump.
the question is what’s about the US security guarantees?

Fresh draft minerals agreement: US to be granted 100% of financial interest

An agreement between the United States and Ukraine provides for the establishment of a commercial fund owned by the United States and financed by Ukraine.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[j_hungary]

even if the russians won this war in 10 years and occupied all territories, Russia is and will remain weak, poor, just a regional player as Obama or a cheap gas station as McCain said it.
Putin won’t change anything for Russia.

the US endgame is China. Trump will do anything possible, stop short of nuclear war, to see that happen.
ultimately Ukraine must engage the US.
the new minerals deal will give 100 percent to the US. good deal for Trump.
the question is what’s about the US security guarantees?

Fresh draft minerals agreement: US to be granted 100% of financial interest

An agreement between the United States and Ukraine provides for the establishment of a commercial fund owned by the United States and financed by Ukraine.

www.pravda.com.ua

First of all, it absurd to think Ukraine would just rolled if and when US withdraw their support, people kind of have short term memories here because it HAS BEEN DONE BEFORE.

The last time US send support is April 17, which mean the entire 10 months are without US Support, and then before that, the US withhold support from Novemeber 2023 to April 2024 when they signed that bill

Both times Ukraine didn't have massive losses like many of the people that talk about, there were several people here talk about how Ukraine is going to fold when US withhold that bill in 2023, but then what did they get both time? They made around 1200 km progress in 2023 and around 700 in 2024. And that's before they lose some of Kursk, and that's also before EU matching Ukrainian aid with US late 2024.

I am not a betting man, but I will bet on ANYONE that Ukraine will not just going to go away in next couple of years without US support they can at least hold on till 2027, and Russia themselves may not be able to take advantage on this anyway. I mean, at the end of the day, I do this for a living, I am willing to bet my entire year salary for it, if anyone want to take that on.