Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates

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I suppose you are correct in terms of transfer of FC weapons systems to Ukraine. Perhaps UK/Italy donate some of their surplus stockpile of StormShadow to Ukraine post 2030? But this doesn't cover the immediate needs of Ukraine.

The UK has committed to supplying Ukraine with 650 Lightweight Multirole Missiles. [1] This is in addition to the £3 billion a year of military support for Ukraine until 2030/31 and as per the UK PM - "for as long as needed". [2]

Partnership with South Korea at this stage would be a great start, they have the capability to supply at scale. The ceasefire would allow Ukraine to rearm and recuperate.

Europe must work at pace to develop a credible deterrent along its eastern border with Russia if any future adventurism from Putin is to be prevented. Being honest if I were Putin emboldened by recent developments, Moldova would be looking increasingly enticing right now.

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...efence-secretary-meets-international-partners
[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-stand-with-ukraine-for-as-long-as-it-takes-pm-to-tell-nato
Europe needed to increase military spending, that much is true since Trump taken power, and the best way to increase spending is to partner with other country.

UK can do more, and should do more, UK have a lot of technology that can translate into warfighting capability in Ukraine. Russia is going to need multiple year before they recover, so there is time as long as it was not squandered away.

I think EU roadmap should look into 34/35 instead of 30/31 this is more likely Russia will strike again once they reconstitution their force and rank. What Europe need to do is to treat Ukraine as inside their circle, they may not need to grant Ukraine EU membership, but what Ukraine have is what the European don't have, the will to fight, Europe with multiple decade ignoring the military and focus on social development have result in an extremely weak and dependent military, and what Europe have and Ukraine don't have is technology and money, put 2 and 2 together and you should have the perfect solution. Meaning, what Europe should do is arm Pan European Frontline to the teeth, Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine should be equally well armed, and then developed the European core and that way they will have the best chance with minimal required resource.
 
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They should have launched more. There could have been Ukrainian military units in the basement. You never know. Any civilian is collateral damage that happens in war.
 
Ukraine may have a talk, but it won't be in US term, Trump knows that, hence the tantrum and meltdown in that meeting.

Quoting what Trump said, there aren't actually anybody holding the cards here.

Ukraine can't push back effectively as that need a surge of equipment
Russia had demonstrated that they can't effectively take Ukraine soil
US have no connection to the Ukrainian anymore.

So who can talk over to whom in this situation? No one.
Zelinskki will return to Washington next week to sign the minerals deal. it’s said he will be accompanied by Macron and Starmer..
possibly he will wear a suit.

Trump wants to be seen and treated as a King. give him what he wants.
it’s all about face.
Zelinskki can stay on Ukraine demands. he will not give in to US nor russian ultimatum.
 
London
insane security for Zelinskki


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The line cannot be held without US, even if it goes Zelenskyy way and EU send 110,000 troop to tie in the border with the existing Ukrainian guard. Russia is going to try again and break that line unless NATO membership was granted, but if Trump or MAGA is still in power, then effectively even NATO membership is probably pointless.

What Ukraine lack is 2 things. Available Manpower and Available Equipment.

Manpower is easy, once this war ends its active stage, whoever in charge of Ukraine will most likely enact conscription act, that will expand both active and reserve manpower. The will need to double their available manpower and have a reserve corps modelled after the Israeli. Then they also need to greatly expand their Armored Corps and Air Force, currently there are 3 armoured Brigade in Ukraine (1st, 3rd and 4th), they need at least 12, what they should do is to make these Brigade organic. Because they are going to face 2 frontlines, Capital Front (Ukrainian border with Belarus) and Southern Front (Main Donbas Line) both front would have to be heavily defended with both Armour and Air Asset. The Ukrainian will also need to expand their Air Force with 4 to 5 active Wing Command, which mean they will need about 200+ Western Fighter Jet to couple with whatever legacy Soviet Jet they were flying, Russia is very artillery heavy, the only way you can fend off Russian attack is with heavy air power, that's what the West had been doing since 1949.

For the Peacekeeping Force, the first thing you need to ask is that Peacekeeping Force have certain degree of self-containment and decision making element, otherwise even if you can get 110,000 peacekeeping force Zelenskyy Asked, it's no good if they are just going to melt away first sign of contact. EU force is great, and you don't actually need a lot, as said before, Ukraine have infantry, they have a lot of infantry, but what they need is the ability to deploy force rapidly and stemming attack before it was out of control. You are expecting the Russian to come at Ukraine again with multiple fronts and with multiple point, you got to have the capability to hit all those point before they went in too deep like they had in the first 2 months in this war, majority of the land Ukrainian ceded is from the first 2 months of engagement of this war, they are now just covering the deficit, so the importance of a Quick Reaction Force to deal with mobile threat is extremely important. Which mean you need Western Air Power more than Western boots on ground. If US decided to bug out, then you will need a Unified European Air Command to monitor Russian action 24/7. You will also need 4 to 5 EU/NATO Squadron (ideally, UK, France, Germany, Italy and/or Canada would send a squadron each) and augmenting the UAF on the frontline. Which should give them a good 10 to 12 Squadrons. Another things these Peacekeeper should take is Anti-Air capability, this, along with Air Power is what Ukraine sorely needed if there is a ceasefire and no security guarantee. It wouldn't matter if the Peacekeeping force is from EU or Japan or Korea, I doubt the latter two will participate. Maybe country like Australia or New Zealand will take part? I am not sure. Mostly this is going to be EU troop though.

What I think will happen if a ceasefire deal is signed by the end of this year. Ukraine will have 10 years or so to reconstitute its force, what they will do is again, first, get conscription in probably for both sexes, and then they will most likely be using their resource (grain, oil, gas and REM) to make deal with EU and/or other country, like South Korea in exchange for Military equipment. Expanding Ukrainian Warfighting Capability and then augmented by an Interim European Force that focus on Air and Armor, that's probably what Ukraine needs to plug the gap.
Damn I agree with you on this! No US IMINT, GPS and STARLINK. Bye bye Ukraine!
 
Zelinskki will return to Washington next week to sign the minerals deal. it’s said he will be accompanied by Macron and Starmer..
possibly he will wear a suit.

Trump wants to be seen and treated as a King. give him what he wants.
it’s all about face.
Zelinskki can stay on Ukraine demands. he will not give in to US nor russian ultimatum.
The issue is not whether or not you can just please trump and get this over with, the issue is there is no trust, and there is no way anyone, not just Zelenskyy can guarantee that Trump will do anything he said he would do.

As Wesely Clark said, if Trump can actually fix this he would be the first one to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, but the issue remain, can anyone trust Trump?

If there is talk, it better be when either Trump is gone, or the Dem retaken both houses before any actual talks going on. At least you would have some sort of guarantee that Trump or GOP won't just go back and bite Zelenskyy in the arse
 
So you now an intelligence expert? You know how intelligence work? Tell me, what do you think REL-UKR mean?

Please do not talk to me again.
I love posts like his, every Putin Fanboy is gushing coping for Ukraine to fail. Horrible really.
 
I love posts like his, every Putin Fanboy is gushing coping for Ukraine to fail. Horrible really.
I will say this.

Anyone who know how intelligence cycle works knows how to pick up intelligence. The term Trump said "We don't share intelligence with Ukraine" is basically pointless because the 5 eyes all have their step with the same system within each other Intelligence Cycle.

What US can get will be the same as what UK can get at any given moment, because US may use British Satellite, Australian Listening station, Canada source (I can't think of what New Zealand Contribution, no offend Kiwi)

The simple term REL-UKR is not really an issue because everyone basically gets the same intel, were there going to be something that US have but not the other 4 partner? Sure, for example, US excel in counterintelligence and target surveillance, there may be TA cycle that just run thru US system and those items are prohibited to be share with Ukraine, but look at it this way. What kind of US Intelligence Asset only the US have but not the other 5 eyes and NATO? Not much. NATO and UK operate E-3 Sentry, Australia and RAF both operate E-7 Wedgetail, Inmarset UK is one of the top IMAINT/SATINT company there were, UK Operate RC-135 Rivet Joint, the only platform I can think of that only US operate is Electronic Attack (Such as EC-130), which if the European wanted to replace the that capability, they can, even the Australian operate EA-18G Growler which basically have the same (if not, very similar, at least when I was still in the Army) that can replicate that.

In term of ISTAR, that probably not really degrading Ukrainian capability. The only thing I can think of as an intelligence specialist is, well, actually 2 things.

US may openly or covertly pass on Ukrainian Intel to Russia. EU cannot replicate specific intel. If I have to guess tho, the former is a lot more of an issue than the latter especially for Zelenskyy personally. But as a whole in the entire Battlefield, there aren't really much changes. but if it was me who is in charge of Ukrainian Intelligence, I will more incline to shut off US from my own intelligence cycle, that do more harm than good than I can't access to US intelligence. I mean I don't want US to leak say, Zelenskyy itinerary, for example, to Russia.
 
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Tuesday, February 25, 2025​

Those Who Are Too Sensitive ...​


... do not watch. But here is how Russians deal with "volunteers" from NATO nowadays. As I repeat ad nauseam--boys, this is not a computer game or "operations" against Taliban when until 2021 it was easy to call on CAS and those pesky A-10s or F-16s would fly in and "deal" with the issue. This is different--this is a REAL war, and you (any even super-pooper "special" forces) do not want to face Russian stormoviks.

[See video at link]

Moreover, if you fight Russians, you do not and will not have the luxury of CAS because it will be shot down or simply will cease to exist due to airfields in tactical and operational rear simply bombed into oblivion. After what these "volunteers" and their "students" committed in Kursk Oblast against civilians Russians are not taking prisoners. This is not a game and Geneva Convention doesn't apply.


 
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