Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates

[Yommie]

This will simply not happen. There is a reason why the Russian didn't break the civilian infrastructure during the first 2 years, which they are more capable than now.

The majority of Ukrainian power supplies is from Nuclear Power Station (up to 80% per war with 8 Tera Watt output) even with Zaporizhya plant off, you are still looking at 7 TW output, and the Ukrainian population loss is around 20% during the war (from 46 million to 37 million) while output loss is around 15% only, which mean it should actually increase in efficiency.

What Russia is trying to do at the onset of this war is to bomb the coal plant and substation, those are their only target, 2 years on, they had gone over all the coal plant probably more than twice which mean you are just going to waste your missile on those coal plant, and unless they are flying their Airforce deep inside Ukraine and drop dumb bomb on substation, one of those substation is actually cheaper than the cruise missile and they are very easily repaired. Plus, the EU has start selling Ukraine their electricity.....

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraines-electricity-imports-remain-high-even-power-line-undergoes-repairs-2024-06-04/

The black out if not some "You can't live at night with no heat and no light" type of blackout in War. the Blackout in Ukraine is people can't make social media video online.....

Same is true of Russia. If Ukraine bomb Russia's nuclear power plants, that causes a lot of environmental damage and drags China directly into war.

 

[Yommie]

@Viet

Where is your fearless leader Kamala Harris? Your favorite weak army is losing again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836541333181288917

 

[Raiden]

This will simply not happen. There is a reason why the Russian didn't break the civilian infrastructure during the first 2 years, which they are more capable than now.

Hardly, Russia has so much confidence that their initial operation will be a success and Zelensky will flee the country ASAP, most of Ukraine's infrastructure stays intact. Name it, the airports, the power plants, roads etc.

When Russia started to become serious about depriving Ukraine of energy, they were hapered by the fact that the military is not ready for such systematic destruction on Ukraine's vast energy infra, not to mention the influx of sophisticated Western AD system in late 2022.

The majority of Ukrainian power supplies is from Nuclear Power Station (up to 80% per war with 8 Tera Watt output) even with Zaporizhya plant off, you are still looking at 7 TW output, and the Ukrainian population loss is around 20% during the war (from 46 million to 37 million) while output loss is around 15% only, which mean it should actually increase in efficiency.

The population estimate for Ukrainians living in Ukraine's territory (as per the latest report cited by Rob Lee) is 25 million, down from the estimated 37 million in Feb 2022. That's a 32.43% decrease. That's a LOT of people simply not in Ukraine due to :

1. Deaths
2. Migration
3. Absorbed into Russia

And this declining trend could be accelerated with making sure that Ukrainians feel the bite of harsh Ukrainian winter THIS WINTER.

Russia should not only target those plants, but also its substation and transmission infrastructure.

That + punishing defeat on the battlefield would further reduce the morale of Ukrainians and increase the incentive to flee to Europe or America.

The Russians are clearly learning and improving their tactics to overwhelm Ukrainian air defence. At some point their improvements will be suffice to systematically destroy not only Ukraine's energy and transport infra, but we will likely see RuAF doing CAP in Ukraine's airspace. Just 2 years ago the Russians weren't even competent at hitting parked Su-27 on Tarmac, now they did so regularly even though the Ukrainians have applied agile combat employment to confuse Russian targeting.

 

[Raiden]

Personally I would like to see more dams destroyed. This would kill not only hydro sourced power generation, but kill agriculture as well.

We know Ukraine is very dependant on their wheat export. Let's destroy that as well.

 

[Yommie]

@Viet

Where is your fearless leader Kamala Harris? Your favorite weak army is losing again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836542504184725984

 

[Yommie]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836541590048747667

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1fk6h1a/ru_pov_russian_taran_drone_intercepts_ukrainian

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836460269079265380

 

[j_hungary]

Hardly, Russia has so much confidence that their initial operation will be a success and Zelensky will flee the country ASAP, most of Ukraine's infrastructure stays intact. Name it, the airports, the power plants, roads etc.

When Russia started to become serious about depriving Ukraine of energy, they were hapered by the fact that the military is not ready for such systematic destruction on Ukraine's vast energy infra, not to mention the influx of sophisticated Western AD system in late 2022.

This have nothing to do with Russia overconfident, they knew they can't take Kyiv in April 2022 not December 2022, they did trying to bring down the entire grid in both 2022 and 2023, both time failed, and now they have to resort to getting North Korea and Iran missile, and you think they can do better this year after attacking it with almost 8000 missile and 4000 suicide drone in the preceding 2 years??

Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure (2022–present) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The population estimate for Ukrainians living in Ukraine's territory (as per the latest report cited by Rob Lee) is 25 million, down from the estimated 37 million in Feb 2022. That's a 32.43% decrease. That's a LOT of people simply not in Ukraine due to :

1. Deaths
2. Migration
3. Absorbed into Russia

And this declining trend could be accelerated with making sure that Ukrainians feel the bite of harsh Ukrainian winter THIS WINTER.

Russia should not only target those plants, but also its substation and transmission infrastructure.

That + punishing defeat on the battlefield would further reduce the morale of Ukrainians and increase the incentive to flee to Europe or America.

The Russians are clearly learning and improving their tactics to overwhelm Ukrainian air defence. At some point their improvements will be suffice to systematically destroy not only Ukraine's energy and transport infra, but we will likely see RuAF doing CAP in Ukraine's airspace. Just 2 years ago the Russians weren't even competent at hitting parked Su-27 on Tarmac, now they did so regularly even though the Ukrainians have applied agile combat employment to confuse Russian targeting.

Unless UN data was wrong, or they suddenly dropped 9 mil population since March this year, the population of Ukraine was reported at 37.9 millions as of March 2024

World Population Dashboard -Ukraine | United Nations Population Fund

The World Population Dashboard showcases global population data, including fertility rate, gender parity in school enrolment, information on sexual and reproductive health, and much more. Together, these data shine a light on the health and rights of people around the world, especially women and...

www.unfpa.org

On the other hand, as I said, unless Russia Air Force try to come out and play, which is going to risk being shot down they can't drop substation enough to bring down the electricity grid.

And lol, it's not the same as hitting something on tarmac. It's about whether you want to risk your own asset to hit that asset on tarmac. And of course you can hope and pray this year is when RuAF come out and play, I found it unlikely when they were virtually defenceless in the beginning of the war with just stinger and starstreak and some S-300 holding the line, and when it is 2023 when the US withholding the aid and starving Ukraine of AA missile, but yes, they will come out and play when there are 2 more Patriot System, 1 more IRIS-T and 3 more NASAM than last year when the warhead is abundant....

 

[Raiden]

This have nothing to do with Russia overconfident, they knew they can't take Kyiv in April 2022 not December 2022, they did trying to bring down the entire grid in both 2022 and 2023, both time failed, and now they have to resort to getting North Korea and Iran missile, and you think they can do better this year after attacking it with almost 8000 missile and 4000 suicide drone in the preceding 2 years??

No, my post above explains why Russia can't systematically destroy Ukr energy's infra early in the war. Because they were expecting a rapid capitulation of Ukraine.

When your goal are rapid takeover, it makes little senses to destroy everything.In Hostomel for example, it was the Ukrainians, not Russian that destroyed the hangars and runways.

Yes, Russia will continue to improve their weapons delivery techniques, meanwhile Ukraine will have to face the uncertainty of not having enough missiles to intercept Russian missiles coming their way.

It will not be quick of course and there's every possibility that RuAF will still fail to freexe Ukraine to death this year. But that's acceptable, because the main aim of such is to increase burden to daily life in Ukraine.

The final capitulation will still have to be done via army occupation of Ukraine, the destruction of Ukraine's electrical generating capability only serves to make things easier for the eventual victory.

Unless UN data was wrong, or they suddenly dropped 9 mil population since March this year, the population of Ukraine was reported at 37.9 millions as of March 2024

World Population Dashboard -Ukraine | United Nations Population Fund

The World Population Dashboard showcases global population data, including fertility rate, gender parity in school enrolment, information on sexual and reproductive health, and much more. Together, these data shine a light on the health and rights of people around the world, especially women and...

www.unfpa.org

that figure didn't stress if the population are :

1. Still living in Ukraine, and not in Russian controlled territory
2. Force to flee to Europe, where they are still counted as Ukrainians, but no longer in the country.

The most recent Ukrainian estimate put it at 25-27 mil, Rob Lee, a researcher on Russia seems to agree

https://twitter.com/x/status/1835929556177354852

On the other hand, as I said, unless Russia Air Force try to come out and play, which is going to risk being shot down they can't drop substation enough to bring down the electricity grid.

And lol, it's not the same as hitting something on tarmac. It's about whether you want to risk your own asset to hit that asset on tarmac. And of course you can hope and pray this year is when RuAF come out and play, I found it unlikely when they were virtually defenceless in the beginning of the war with just stinger and starstreak and some S-300 holding the line, and when it is 2023 when the US withholding the aid and starving Ukraine of AA missile, but yes, they will come out and play when there are 2 more Patriot System, 1 more IRIS-T and 3 more NASAM than last year when the warhead is abundant....

Those huge power plants could be hit via mass ballistic and cruise missiles attack. And those substations as well as their transmission towers could be sabotaged via something like an FPV drones. Of course not all of Ukraine's transmission line is within reach, but for frontline cities like Kharkiv or Sumy, this could be tried.

Remember, this attack is not to conclude the war, but help win the war by making sure life is miserable enough to incentivize Ukrainians to flee to the West.

This war will still have to be won by physically occupying land, like this below.

 

[Raiden]

Ukrainians are not 'tough' people and they're not patriotic either

Up to 6 million left the country towards the West, in comparison only 600K Russians left the country.

Those 'Winter Punishment' I wrote is simply to capitalize on this fact, incentivize them to leave to a better place in the West rather than dying of freezing in Ukraine.

Thereby depriving Kyiv of valuable population and manpower. It will kill their economy and military.

 

[Yommie]

Ukrainians are not 'tough' people and they're not patriotic either

Up to 6 million left the country towards the West, in comparison only 600K Russians left the country.

Those 'Winter Punishment' I wrote is simply to capitalize on this fact, incentivize them to leave to a better place in the West rather than dying of freezing in Ukraine.

Thereby depriving Kyiv of valuable population and manpower. It will kill their economy and military.

Men aren't allowed to leave Ukraine but women are. Without women, the birthrate is going to plummet. It's going to be negative. Without babies, the nation will be extinct. Go the way of the dinosaurs, the way of the dodo.

 

[Yommie]

@Viet

German tanks getting slaughtered by small drones left and right.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1fk9fpg/ru_pov_56th_airborne_regiment_forces_strike

 

[j_hungary]

No, my post above explains why Russia can't systematically destroy Ukr energy's infra early in the war. Because they were expecting a rapid capitulation of Ukraine.

When your goal are rapid takeover, it makes little senses to destroy everything.In Hostomel for example, it was the Ukrainians, not Russian that destroyed the hangars and runways.

Yes, Russia will continue to improve their weapons delivery techniques, meanwhile Ukraine will have to face the uncertainty of not having enough missiles to intercept Russian missiles coming their way.

It will not be quick of course and there's every possibility that RuAF will still fail to freexe Ukraine to death this year. But that's acceptable, because the main aim of such is to increase burden to daily life in Ukraine.

The final capitulation will still have to be done via army occupation of Ukraine, the destruction of Ukraine's electrical generating capability only serves to make things easier for the eventual victory.

Again, Russia realise that was not going to happen in April, NOT DECEMBER. They changed tac and bring down city (Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Kermina) during the summer that year. They started attacking Ukraine energy infrastructure since October 2022.

And again, as I said, back in 2022 and 2023, that's when the Russian military at its strongest, no country in the world, US included, getting stronger in term of military power during a war, it's ALWAYS degrading because instead of stockpiling, everything you produce is to recover loss.

I mean, sure, you can wait for "final capitulation" all you wanted, but people had been saying this for 2 years, coming to third winter. Again, I don't see any Ukrainian suffer in the winter and I had been in Ukraine in January this year, you won't go anywhere if this is what you hoping for.

that figure didn't stress if the population are :

1. Still living in Ukraine, and not in Russian controlled territory
2. Force to flee to Europe, where they are still counted as Ukrainians, but no longer in the country.

The most recent Ukrainian estimate put it at 25-27 mil, Rob Lee, a researcher on Russia seems to agree

https://twitter.com/x/status/1835929556177354852

First of all, you need to read the comment section instead of just a post.

Second, this is not really making sense, he claims Ukraine loss is 80000 KIA (Wounded doesn't count as they still live) and 6 million refugee.

From census data available we know Ukraine had a pre-war population of 45.7 millions, If we knock out Crimea (2.6 million) and Donbas 6.6 million as a whole (Which Ukraine still control 20%, so that's not going to be all of them under Russian control) which. That number is 30.7, if we use his estimation. But then as I said, not all the Donbas was controlled by Russia and Ukraine did evacuate their population before Russia took them and more general figure put Ukrainian seeking refuge in Europe at 4.7 million

Ukraine population under Kyiv control could be easily north of 35 mil.

Those huge power plants could be hit via mass ballistic and cruise missiles attack. And those substations as well as their transmission towers could be sabotaged via something like an FPV drones. Of course not all of Ukraine's transmission line is within reach, but for frontline cities like Kharkiv or Sumy, this could be tried.

Remember, this attack is not to conclude the war, but help win the war by making sure life is miserable enough to incentivize Ukrainians to flee to the West.

This war will still have to be won by physically occupying land, like this below.

What power point? You need to be more specific.

There are only a few target you can attack, you can attack relay station, you can attack the station itself (Not nuclear power plant tho), you can attack substation.

As I mentioned before, Russia did attack all the coal plant they can

Bloomberg Global Coal Countdown

The latest news and data on Ukraine's progress towards phasing out coal.

bloombergcoalcountdown.com

And it will cost WAY more for Russia to attack a substation or relay station with a cruise or ballistic missile because transformer is actually very cheap.......

And the EU grid started to come online at the beginning of 2024 after Ukraine went island mode for 2 years before, this is just going to make that move a moot point, because EU electricity output are a lot greater than Ukraine, and Ukraine is buying from just about everyone.,

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1034854-on-tuesday-ukraine-will-reduce-volume-of-electricity-imports

On Tuesday, September 17, it is planned to import electricity from Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Moldova in the total volume of 16,943 MWh during the day​

That's 16 Giga Watt a day, do the math and you will know this mean 5 Tera Watt a year, that's almost 80% of the Nuclear plant generate, And Russia can't touch any of them unless they go with individual transformer from the west one by one............

 

[Raiden]

Again, Russia realise that was not going to happen in April, NOT DECEMBER. They changed tac and bring down city (Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Kermina) during the summer that year. They started attacking Ukraine energy infrastructure since October 2022.

You basically double down on what I said, Russia didn't target those power plants early in the war because they don't find it a necessity.

When they realized that the war will be a long one, they started hitting Ukrainian power plants in late '22. But by then the Russians have 2 problems :

1. Their proficiency to deploy air power is in question
2. They do not have much precision munitions
3. Ukraine started to get huge influx of Western AD systems

Now almost 3 years into the anniversary of this war, Russia has :

1. Improve their integration between their sensors and shooters. So much so, that Ukrainian jets are no longer safe in their airbases
2. Russia has become somewhat 'precisionized' with the introduction of smart bombs
3. Ukraine is short on everything, including AD munitions

This war will reach a point where Russia could not only overwhelm Ukraine's AD but achieve air supremacy. Sooner or later.

And again, as I said, back in 2022 and 2023, that's when the Russian military at its strongest, no country in the world, US included, getting stronger in term of military power during a war, it's ALWAYS degrading because instead of stockpiling, everything you produce is to recover loss.

Ummm no, your general disagree

US Air Force general: Russia military larger, better than before Ukraine invasion​

Russia's military is bigger and stronger than it was prior to invading Ukraine in February 2022, the commander of United States Air Forces in Europe and Africa cautioned Tuesday.

"Russia is getting larger, and they're getting better than they were before. … They are actually larger than they were when [the invasion] kicked off," Air Force General James Hecker told reporters at the Air & Space Forces Association's annual Air, Space & Cyber Conference.

US Air Force general: Russia military larger, better than before Ukraine invasion

On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered that the Russian army grow by 180,000 active-duty troops for a total of 1.5 million soldiers

www.voanews.com

I mean, sure, you can wait for "final capitulation" all you wanted, but people had been saying this for 2 years, coming to third winter. Again, I don't see any Ukrainian suffer in the winter and I had been in Ukraine in January this year, you won't go anywhere if this is what you hoping for.

The war in Viet Nam and Afghanistan dragged on for 10 and 20 years respectively.

You guys will lose, you're just having a hard time admitting it. Your money could only solve so many problem, the Ukrainian manpower problem simply has no cure.

And I'm banking on the next winter air campaign to make sure that Ukrainian manpower pool dwindles even more.

First of all, you need to read the comment section instead of just a post.

Second, this is not really making sense, he claims Ukraine loss is 80000 KIA (Wounded doesn't count as they still live) and 6 million refugee.

From census data available we know Ukraine had a pre-war population of 45.7 millions, If we knock out Crimea (2.6 million) and Donbas 6.6 million as a whole (Which Ukraine still control 20%, so that's not going to be all of them under Russian control) which. That number is 30.7, if we use his estimation. But then as I said, not all the Donbas was controlled by Russia and Ukraine did evacuate their population before Russia took them and more general figure put Ukrainian seeking refuge in Europe at 4.7 million

Ukraine population under Kyiv control could be easily north of 35 mil.

I will leave this to you, Ukraine's official govt themselves, the Ukrainian pop's as of Jan 1, 2022 is 41 million, not 45.7.

Estimated population of Ukraine on January 1, 2022. was 41,167.3 thousand people

Demographic situation in 2021 | State statistics service of Ukraine

Estimated population of Ukraine on January 1, 2022. was 41,167.3 thousand people. Total population reduction in 2021. amounted to 421,000 people. The excess of the number of deaths over the number of live births remains significant: 38 live births per 100 deaths.

stat.gov.ua

Of course the 41 mil included the people in Crimea, Donbass, and Donetsk. The population in Kyiv's controlled territory are estimated at 35-37 mil.

Now, mass migration of 6 million + is only the official data from the Ukrainian govt, that icludes the children, the women and the sick.

Now, Ukraine is a very corrupt country and I bet my salary that people are leaving unnoticed by the immigration center. Such as the men swimming to Romania or the rich boys who bribe the border police to flee.

It make sense that the estimate right now is around 25-27 million and it will keep on dwindling.

What power point? You need to be more specific.

There are only a few target you can attack, you can attack relay station, you can attack the station itself (Not nuclear power plant tho), you can attack substation.

As I mentioned before, Russia did attack all the coal plant they can

View attachment 65759

Bloomberg Global Coal Countdown

The latest news and data on Ukraine's progress towards phasing out coal.

bloombergcoalcountdown.com

And it will cost WAY more for Russia to attack a substation or relay station with a cruise or ballistic missile because transformer is actually very cheap.......

And the EU grid started to come online at the beginning of 2024 after Ukraine went island mode for 2 years before, this is just going to make that move a moot point, because EU electricity output are a lot greater than Ukraine, and Ukraine is buying from just about everyone.,

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1034854-on-tuesday-ukraine-will-reduce-volume-of-electricity-imports

On Tuesday, September 17, it is planned to import electricity from Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Moldova in the total volume of 16,943 MWh during the day​

That's 16 Giga Watt a day, do the math and you will know this mean 5 Tera Watt a year, that's almost 80% of the Nuclear plant generate, And Russia can't touch any of them unless they go with individual transformer from the west one by one............

Certainly not all of the country could be turned off by the Russians, but it just helps that Ukraine's major cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv are so close to the border, it's actually quite possible to target the transmission towers connected to the city by cheap drones or sabotage. Make their life miserable.

Ukraine is (I belive) also still has a few working conventional power plant running, need to swat those as well.

The EU will have to face winter too, and their economy isn't doing great, particularly Germany, and Ukraine simply will have to pay for that

Importing expensive electricity will bring Ukrainian industry to a standstill

Ukrainian industry will lose the last factors of competitiveness amid rules requiring the import of 80% of electricity to guarantee non-stop operation

gmk.center

Blackouts in the middle of harsh winter is, I believe not the best of experience.

Blackouts, electricity restrictions may last up to 2 weeks, former energy minister says

Ukraine's Energy Ministry said that it was one of the largest attacks on energy infrastructure and said that the consequences were still being determined.

kyivindependent.com

 

[j_hungary]

You basically double down on what I said, Russia didn't target those power plants early in the war because they don't find it a necessity.

When they realized that the war will be a long one, they started hitting Ukrainian power plants in late '22. But by then the Russians have 2 problems :

1. Their proficiency to deploy air power is in question
2. They do not have much precision munitions
3. Ukraine started to get huge influx of Western AD systems

Now almost 3 years into the anniversary of this war, Russia has :

1. Improve their integration between their sensors and shooters. So much so, that Ukrainian jets are no longer safe in their airbases
2. Russia has become somewhat 'precisionized' with the introduction of smart bombs
3. Ukraine is short on everything, including AD munitions

This war will reach a point where Russia could not only overwhelm Ukraine's AD but achieve air supremacy. Sooner or later.

First of all, you consider Iranian and North Korea missile as "Precision" missile?

Second of all, this is not about how you do it, this is about capability, the capability decreases over time. For example, you have less airframe to drop missile, you have less ISTAR asset to locate target, you have less capability to prevent Ukraine from counter attacking once you attack.

Russian general or pilot are dumb, they know what they are going to do, be it 2022 or 2024, if you suggest that Russia in 2022 have no idea how to use their sensor to coordinate ground attack and they now do. Well, then, all I can say is a LOL

And no, judging from Russian attack, their attack become dumber not smarter, 2022 we see a range of precision guided missile couple with some smart weaponry (like Lancet and so on), 2023 we see somewhat precision guided missile accompanied by Shahed Drone. In 2024, Russia resorted to gliding dumb bomb into Kharkiv..........How exactly did Russia getting more precise?

And lol, if there is a point in time Russia can overwhelm Ukrainian AD, then they better start doing something. Ukraine is schedule to get more Patriot Battery and IRIST and more F-16. Things aren't going to get easier for Russia, and they did the square root of jack shit on trying to gain Air Superiority in Ukraine in the last 2 years. I mean, as I said, you can hope. LOL

Ummm no, your general disagree

US Air Force general: Russia military larger, better than before Ukraine invasion​

Russia's military is bigger and stronger than it was prior to invading Ukraine in February 2022, the commander of United States Air Forces in Europe and Africa cautioned Tuesday.

"Russia is getting larger, and they're getting better than they were before. … They are actually larger than they were when [the invasion] kicked off," Air Force General James Hecker told reporters at the Air & Space Forces Association's annual Air, Space & Cyber Conference.

US Air Force general: Russia military larger, better than before Ukraine invasion

On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered that the Russian army grow by 180,000 active-duty troops for a total of 1.5 million soldiers

www.voanews.com

Dude, he is talking about the Russian military is getting bigger (In size) and will perform better, being big does not mean stronger, otherwise India, China, North Korea would be the strongest military on earth.....

And of course they are going to get better, because they eventually will learn from their mistake.

Power is another issue, I mean, when you are started using 1950s Tank and Artillery, that's in no way being "stronger" than you were 2 years ago.

The war in Viet Nam and Afghanistan dragged on for 10 and 20 years respectively.

You guys will lose, you're just having a hard time admitting it. Your money could only solve so many problem, the Ukrainian manpower problem simply has no cure.

And I'm banking on the next winter air campaign to make sure that Ukrainian manpower pool dwindles even more.

Where are all the money for it? Russia need to pay for their war somehow, and you were talking about US being in Vietnam for 10 and Afghanistan for 20, US is 30 times the economy than Russia and they we aren't talking about 20 years of active fighting, Active fighting in Vietnam was over in 66 and restarted in 74 (When US withdraw) Afghan active fighting stopped in October 2021

Russia is still on the active phase of the invasion, it's not some "police action" or "active counter insurgency operation. This is what Russia is going to get involved in after the convntional fighting is done,.

I will leave this to you, Ukraine's official govt themselves, the Ukrainian pop's as of Jan 1, 2022 is 41 million, not 45.7.

Estimated population of Ukraine on January 1, 2022. was 41,167.3 thousand people

Demographic situation in 2021 | State statistics service of Ukraine

Estimated population of Ukraine on January 1, 2022. was 41,167.3 thousand people. Total population reduction in 2021. amounted to 421,000 people. The excess of the number of deaths over the number of live births remains significant: 38 live births per 100 deaths.

stat.gov.ua

Of course the 41 mil included the people in Crimea, Donbass, and Donetsk. The population in Kyiv's controlled territory are estimated at 35-37 mil.
Now, mass migration of 6 million + is only the official data from the Ukrainian govt, that icludes the children, the women and the sick.

Now, Ukraine is a very corrupt country and I bet my salary that people are leaving unnoticed by the immigration center. Such as the men swimming to Romania or the rich boys who bribe the border police to flee.

It make sense that the estimate right now is around 25-27 million and it will keep on dwindling.

They already discounted the Donbas and Crimea Occupation Region in this...

Demographic situation in 2021 | State statistics service of Ukraine

Estimated population of Ukraine on January 1, 2022. was 41,167.3 thousand people. Total population reduction in 2021. amounted to 421,000 people. The excess of the number of deaths over the number of live births remains significant: 38 live births per 100 deaths.

stat.gov.ua

I was talking about Ukraine population was 45.7mil as a whole, because I decducted Crimea and Donbas population from it in the subsequent calculation. If you use this number, you doubt counted the Crimea and Donbas population.

Certainly not all of the country could be turned off by the Russians, but it just helps that Ukraine's major cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv are so close to the border, it's actually quite possible to target the transmission towers connected to the city by cheap drones or sabotage. Make their life miserable.

Ukraine is (I belive) also still has a few working conventional power plant running, need to swat those as well.

The EU will have to face winter too, and their economy isn't doing great, particularly Germany, and Ukraine simply will have to pay for that

Importing expensive electricity will bring Ukrainian industry to a standstill

Ukrainian industry will lose the last factors of competitiveness amid rules requiring the import of 80% of electricity to guarantee non-stop operation

gmk.center

Blackouts in the middle of harsh winter is, I believe not the best of experience.

Blackouts, electricity restrictions may last up to 2 weeks, former energy minister says

Ukraine's Energy Ministry said that it was one of the largest attacks on energy infrastructure and said that the consequences were still being determined.

kyivindependent.com

I am pretty sure the energy deal was included in the EU aid.

And we are talking about electricity, not gas.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

I have a feeling one day when I will wake up , I will find , Putin the Honorable has lost his patience And Russia has used a Nuc on Ukraine

News papers will put biggest font on Newspaper and everyone will have mouths open with shock ...

There will be big silence from everyone after that and people will just realize

Don't poke the bear

They will then start to talk about peace when it is already too late

All these tiny missions Ukraine is doing will have no meaning they could have had peace long time ago