You basically double down on what I said, Russia didn't target those power plants early in the war because they don't find it a necessity.
When they realized that the war will be a long one, they started hitting Ukrainian power plants in late '22. But by then the Russians have 2 problems :
- Their proficiency to deploy air power is in question
- They do not have much precision munitions
- Ukraine started to get huge influx of Western AD systems
Now almost 3 years into the anniversary of this war, Russia has :
- Improve their integration between their sensors and shooters. So much so, that Ukrainian jets are no longer safe in their airbases
- Russia has become somewhat 'precisionized' with the introduction of smart bombs
- Ukraine is short on everything, including AD munitions
This war will reach a point where Russia could not only overwhelm Ukraine's AD but achieve air supremacy. Sooner or later.
First of all, you consider Iranian and North Korea missile as "Precision" missile?
Second of all, this is not about how you do it, this is about capability, the capability decreases over time. For example, you have less airframe to drop missile, you have less ISTAR asset to locate target, you have less capability to prevent Ukraine from counter attacking once you attack.
Russian general or pilot are dumb, they know what they are going to do, be it 2022 or 2024, if you suggest that Russia in 2022 have no idea how to use their sensor to coordinate ground attack and they now do. Well, then, all I can say is a LOL
And no, judging from Russian attack, their attack become dumber not smarter, 2022 we see a range of precision guided missile couple with some smart weaponry (like Lancet and so on), 2023 we see somewhat precision guided missile accompanied by Shahed Drone. In 2024, Russia resorted to gliding dumb bomb into Kharkiv..........How exactly did Russia getting more precise?
And lol, if there is a point in time Russia can overwhelm Ukrainian AD, then they better start doing something. Ukraine is schedule to get more Patriot Battery and IRIST and more F-16. Things aren't going to get easier for Russia, and they did the square root of jack shit on trying to gain Air Superiority in Ukraine in the last 2 years. I mean, as I said, you can hope. LOL
Ummm no, your general disagree
US Air Force general: Russia military larger, better than before Ukraine invasion
Russia's military is bigger and stronger than it was prior to invading Ukraine in February 2022, the commander of United States Air Forces in Europe and Africa cautioned Tuesday.
"Russia is getting larger, and they're getting better than they were before. … They are actually larger than they were when [the invasion] kicked off," Air Force General James Hecker told reporters at the Air & Space Forces Association's annual Air, Space & Cyber Conference.
On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered that the Russian army grow by 180,000 active-duty troops for a total of 1.5 million soldiers
www.voanews.com
Dude, he is talking about the Russian military is getting bigger (In size) and will perform better, being big does not mean stronger, otherwise India, China, North Korea would be the strongest military on earth.....
And of course they are going to get better, because they eventually will learn from their mistake.
Power is another issue, I mean, when you are started using 1950s Tank and Artillery, that's in no way being "stronger" than you were 2 years ago.
The war in Viet Nam and Afghanistan dragged on for 10 and 20 years respectively.
You guys will lose, you're just having a hard time admitting it. Your money could only solve so many problem, the Ukrainian manpower problem simply has no cure.
And I'm banking on the next winter air campaign to make sure that Ukrainian manpower pool dwindles even more.
Where are all the money for it? Russia need to pay for their war somehow, and you were talking about US being in Vietnam for 10 and Afghanistan for 20, US is 30 times the economy than Russia and they we aren't talking about 20 years of active fighting, Active fighting in Vietnam was over in 66 and restarted in 74 (When US withdraw) Afghan active fighting stopped in October 2021
Russia is still on the active phase of the invasion, it's not some "police action" or "active counter insurgency operation. This is what Russia is going to get involved in after the convntional fighting is done,.
I will leave this to you, Ukraine's official govt themselves, the Ukrainian pop's as of Jan 1, 2022 is 41 million, not 45.7.
Estimated population of Ukraine on January 1, 2022. was 41,167.3 thousand people
Estimated population of Ukraine on January 1, 2022. was 41,167.3 thousand people. Total population reduction in 2021. amounted to 421,000 people. The excess of the number of deaths over the number of live births remains significant: 38 live births per 100 deaths.
stat.gov.ua
Of course the 41 mil included the people in Crimea, Donbass, and Donetsk. The population in Kyiv's controlled territory are estimated at 35-37 mil.
Now, mass migration of 6 million + is only the official data from the Ukrainian govt, that icludes the children, the women and the sick.
Now, Ukraine is a very corrupt country and I bet my salary that people are leaving unnoticed by the immigration center. Such as the men swimming to Romania or the rich boys who bribe the border police to flee.
It make sense that the estimate right now is around 25-27 million and it will keep on dwindling.
They already discounted the Donbas and Crimea Occupation Region in this...
Estimated population of Ukraine on January 1, 2022. was 41,167.3 thousand people. Total population reduction in 2021. amounted to 421,000 people. The excess of the number of deaths over the number of live births remains significant: 38 live births per 100 deaths.
stat.gov.ua
I was talking about Ukraine population was 45.7mil as a whole, because I decducted Crimea and Donbas population from it in the subsequent calculation. If you use this number, you doubt counted the Crimea and Donbas population.
Certainly not all of the country could be turned off by the Russians, but it just helps that Ukraine's major cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv are so close to the border, it's actually quite possible to target the transmission towers connected to the city by cheap drones or sabotage. Make their life miserable.
Ukraine is (I belive) also still has a few working conventional power plant running, need to swat those as well.
The EU will have to face winter too, and their economy isn't doing great, particularly Germany, and Ukraine simply will have to pay for that
Ukrainian industry will lose the last factors of competitiveness amid rules requiring the import of 80% of electricity to guarantee non-stop operation
gmk.center
Blackouts in the middle of harsh winter is, I believe not the best of experience.
Ukraine's Energy Ministry said that it was one of the largest attacks on energy infrastructure and said that the consequences were still being determined.
kyivindependent.com
I am pretty sure the energy deal was included in the EU aid.
And we are talking about electricity, not gas.