Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates
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j_hungary
Professional
The problem we don't see is "What's Russia is going to be once this war is over"
Every war in this world happened between 1900 to 2020 ends with economic depression of countries that was involved. In 1911 we have Germany ended up losing basically all their money and racked up debt for repatriation so much so that Hitler uses that to start World War 2, the West aren't above the economic disaster too, demobilisation and vacuum of industry (from switching from making military equipment and munition to domestic production) lead into 1920 depression culminated the crash of the century. WW2 saw Germany again completely destroy economically and it's still paying repatriation today, and UK, France and collective of European country were in ruin. US overborrowing and only the industrial might of the US after WW2 saved its economy. All the way goes into US skyrocketed external debt after concluding both Iraq and Afghanistan war in 2000-2020. Russia can't have 121% GDP debt, nobody is going to lent Russia that much money (that's around 5 trillion dollars) so after this war, they would need to restart their economy, mostly by itself, unless China really dig deep into their pocket and help out, but I seriously doubt that as China aren't in a good place either, with almost 90% debt to GDP, China is coming closer to the economic situation the US is currently in (US being 127% of its GDP), but without that much borrowing power.
Anyway, the problem Russia has is they are, as I said before, in a economic death spiral, interest rate at all time high (21 or 22% last I heard) with inflation rate up there as well (9.5% last I heard) that's not a good combo, because you need to pay back interest rate, it basically like Russian are borrowing money from your credit card for this war, only that Credit Card usually charge 18.5% per annum, and then you are going to pay it off in a high inflation setting, that's a double whammy..... yes, Russia continue to trade with countries like India and China, but again, as I pointed out, almost 50% of money made by Russian government goes into military spending, and that does nothing to the economy unless you are at war, because not only you pull resource into military industry, so less resource will go into producing domestic goods, but also you pull workers off their production line, which is far more important because after this war, Russia is going to take a hit with a big trunk of their work force, because many was killed, maimed or otherwise disable in the war, because you don't send old folks and women to war, you send young, healthy male to war, which is what most country's work force was made of. So you have a deficiency of work force, and then remaining worker are not going to, say make coffee machine if the money is coming from making tanks, fighters, helicopter or artillery rounds, which mean you are suffocated the domestic production during the war, and the longer the war drag on, the harder for you to switch back, and this war, is coming in 3 years.
This is the overall price you have to pay for a war, whether you win or lose, but at the end of the day, would it be worth it for Russia to be in this state, and it's only going to get worse, for 20% of Ukraine, meanwhile having turn at least multiple generation of Ukraine into a hostile neighbor? As I said, if this is winning, then I don't think Russian want to know what it is looks like when they actually lose the war.
TopGun786
Trusted Member
Strategic defeat (999 tines)
Now strategic victory (13 times).
Just like a paid troll.
Repeating like a robot.
j_hungary
Professional
Not sure how much layman I can go, I mean I can try to explain it as a "non-military" talk style.
The single major reason why Russia failed to capture Kyiv is because they failed at Hostomel (Including the battle of Antonov Airport), which not only decimated their elite Air Assault force (up to 55% of the 31st Airborne (or Air Assault Brigade) was casualty in the battle of Hostomel. You basically lost an entire brigade in that battle) but they also lost that strategic airlift capability directly into Kyiv suburb, and that REALLY hurt.......
The basic battleplan for Russian invasion of Ukraine is actually very similar to what we did in Iraq in 2003. We have multiple thrust going from Kuwait and then an air assault and airborne operation from the north to seize Baghdad. Russian are doing similar stuff, they launch an armored thrust from Crimea, Donbass and Kharkiv while try to air assault Kyiv. It took us 17 days (give or takes) to reach Baghdad, and it took them 37 days (from 24 Feb - 31 March) to call it off. Notice the number is similar in size, we just made better progress because unlike in Ukraine we are fighting thru desert.
Basically, for any invasion operation, you need 3 things. Force, Ingress Route, and Supplies. You failed one, you fail the operation, for example, if you lose too much troop fighting the initial invasion, you failed, if your ingress route is blocked, you fail, and if you cannot continuously supply your troop, you failed. That's very straight forward. In this case, failure to capture Hostomel and Antonov airfield would mean it failed in supplies. Because everything you need to capture Kyiv would need to go with MSR/ASR instead of air freight, and being the capital, it's very important to disable the central command to either capture the Ukraine C4I in Kyiv or at least have them move somewhere else. Otherwise what you are going to face is an organised defence, because you let your enemy C4I stands.
And then, you are talking about instead of flying in all essential, you add those into your regular convoy and transport 150km by road, you are basically adding 2 to 3 times more truck on the road and if you were trained about it, you are may be able to handle that volume of traffic, but Russia is everything BUT prepared. You can see from the vehicle they use and the fact that they weren't even bothered to improve the roadway on Belarus side when they are stacking their force there means they weren't actually prepared for such a scenario. and that's why that 40 km convoy happened. It's hard enough to maneuver 1000+ trucks at the same time over at the same destination, it's even harder if you are harassed by partisan and minimum airstrike.
As long as that convoy is on the road, it meant that troop at the very front of the frontline aren't getting what they needed. And the closer you are to Kyiv, the longer that supply line and LOC stretch, and we now believe Russian in that front were never resupplied (or it's negligible) because 37 days, give or takes is the max supplies you can bring with you with your invading force, that's where the first logistic cycle started (Ours start at 28 days), but they were never able to untangle the convoy, which mean there are nothing supplying the troop on the frontline, that means you can't keep fighting after that day, and from all the video we get Russian tanks/APC runs out of gas means they at least have a serious supply issue on the 1,3,5 front (food, fuel and ammunition)
After the Russian failed to capture Kyiv, the only way they can do is to basically grind forward, because they are unable to overcome the center of gravity. Meaning if you are facing a determined enemy, when the shock and awe phase expired, you are going to see more beefed up and more organised defence, this is what you don't want to see as an invader, and couple with the fact that, well, I have no other word to describe, incompetent Russian force that they weren't able to out maneuver the Ukrainian, even as we are talking about the initial stage, every day pass in the beginning phase, the defence become stronger, and more organised. And the fact that Russia is still fighting the Ukrainian in Mariupol 87 days after the invasion means you give the Ukrainian that much time to raise their defence. Which mean from then on, we know this war is going to be slow and hard for both sides.
As for the air support, if Russia had taken Hostomel and probably surrounding airfield, they may be able to use it to interdict supply line to the west, but they didn't and the most forward airbase (which are not in use now by the way because of HIMARS) are over 800km away, there are no way you can fly combat mission that deep within enemy territories without any lost. Now, Russia can try and gain air superiority if they are willing to sacrifice airframe for aerial superiority, now why they are not willing to do this? I don't know.
Ё-МАЁ
Registered Member
You are an enemy of Russia. Naturally, you like the catastrophic scenario in its economy. I've been hearing about its catastrophe for the last 10 years. And you are waiting with hope that it will come true. Has any prediction come true? Of course, high inflation, high interest rate of the Central Bank all this is stressful. In addition, sanctions are pressing. But we are not discouraged - we survive even in these conditions. And the GDP growth of 4.1 per cent is proof of that. And what is the growth in Europe?
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Ё-МАЁ
Registered Member
Ukraine at that time would have been taken in a fortnight, but there was a hope that it would be possible to reach an agreement in Istanbul - everything was going towards that, so it was decided to support this hope and withdrawal of troops. But they deceived us again, and then NATO, led by the U.S., got involved in the war. That's when the progress slowed down. And now, if Ukraine is at war with Russia, Russia is at war with NATO. Compare our potentials? And we need to defeat NATO to make it give up its war with Russia. And to do that, we need to deplete the West's armaments. And occupation of territory is secondary in this case. That's why we're moving slowly. We're taking care of our people as much as possible.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
j_hungary
Professional
dude, first of all, 4.1% GDP growth with 9.5% inflation, do you actually know what that means??
Second, you seems like you have no idea how interest rate work. You are being paid 21% to put money in the bank so your currency would not be deteriorate, instead you are now raise 21% interest rate with 9.5% inflation, which mean today 1 rouble would have 90 cents (or whatever the decimal) on that tomorrow, which mean the government of Russia don't only need to come up with the interest rate, but also to compensate the 9.5% inflation when they have to eventually pay up the interest. That catastrophy has already come true, you are just too stupid to realise, because you are talking about at least 130% more pay out (assume if both interest rate and inflation rate hold, which I doubt), which is something no country can do. It's even worse than when Greece are almost bankrupt. So if I were you, I would worry about my bank deposit, instead of worrying about Europe.
KingQamaR
Elite Member
PakAi: , America & Eu didn't save ukraine they prolonged the war and Ukraine destruction, iff they would have negotiated in 2022, they would have suffered allot less, and lost allot less, and Europe cant do shit the economies are kaput in Europe, Europe is already fd, and i live in UK its bad over here.
j_hungary
Professional
First of all, if you think this is Russia is at war with "NATO" then you probably will have bigger surprise when you actually come up against NATO. Because NATO have a lot more than 100 M777, 20 HIMARS, ~300 ATACAMS, 200 Gen 4 tanks, and 2 F-16. Yes, as if the west is almost depleted soon.......
On the other hand, Russia can't even manage to take Pokrovsk since August last year
Dude, at this rate, it will be 2050 by the time Russia reaches Sloviansk.......I mean, take a look of what 6 months of progress in that area is like
That's 6 months, what is the progress? 20km sideway? With this progress, Russia can't even dictate the lunch menu in the negotiation, let alone terms. And that was supposed to be the major push. Dude 6 months is enough for the Ukrainian to vacate Pokrovsk, build 3 defensive line behind the city, by the time Russian actually taken Pokrovsk, it's will be pointless.
Face it, this war ain't going to end the way you think you can achieve, it would be an achievement for Russia to take Donbas alone, it's nearly impossible to landlock Ukraine, then what? You lost 200k people and set your military back 5 years for what exactly? So you can inherit 20% of the ruin??
KingQamaR
Elite Member
Another important point is that Russian tanks, planes, etc. are WAY cheaper than US planes, etc. Additionally US prices are rising exponentially while Russian prices seem to be rising less than that. So Europe can increase spending to 100% of GDP but by 2100, that would be enough to buy 2 fighter jets if trends continue
hussain0216
Elite Member
They've basically been told, the U.S is out, apart from legacy money allocated or things already agreed upon
The U.S is stepping back and it's upto Europe
Europe is old and already facing economic problems and can't allocate finance and arm itself at the same time
The U.S might as well shit Ukraine in the back of the head and presented it to Russia
Russia has WON!!!!!!!
KingQamaR
Elite Member
This Anti Christ. Was reported months ago he said we’re there because Ukraine has $12 trillion in natural resources and we can’t let china and Russia have it!
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