Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates

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j_hungary said:
Probably even less.......
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probably $0

those occupied areas are within the range of Ukraine artillery.

considering Putin spends $2 billion a day on this 3 day war, that’s a big gamble.
 
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FORWARDS!!!!!

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Snake said:
In your analogy Ukraine is the homeowner. In reality the homeowner is not even at the negotiating table. You're looking at a very very small section of this conflict - this analogy is horrible : Who's supplying the homeowner? Does the homeowner want the supplier to defend their house? What will the homeowner do if there's no more supply? Does the supplier want to defend the home?

Let's not oversimplify.
Click to expand...

Again, you failed to see one thing.

That is without NATO Membership, talk is pointless for Ukraine, for them, that's a point you can't have them remove, unless you have enough progress in the field to basically point it to them "Now it's either total annihilation or accept the peace deal"

Who supplying the Ukrainian is not the question here, whether or not the Russian can make that existential crisis move is the issue here, again, why would I pre-defeated myself when you can't even take half of my land, and Russia don't have to worry about who is supplying Ukraine, because that is for Ukraine to worr

Snake said:
I've addressed your concerns about Russian crimes against Muslims.
Click to expand...

As I said, I am just amaze how you say "they don't do that anymore" when you were quoting Iraqi children die from sanction during the 90s.......
Snake said:
What are your predictions? Don't tell me you don't like to discuss the future.
btw I didn't say those outcomes would be achieved militarily - US will impose those on Ukraine once US engineers a regime change to oust their regime changed Zelensky.
Click to expand...

Again, with what? Whether or not US supplies Ukraine have no bearing on how they engineering a Kyiv regime. That regime ain't going anywhere unless someone physically remove them, unless you are saying US physically invade Ukraine, that's would be another issue.

But as we see in the last 3 years of war, even up and down Russia failed to deliver, there are two best chance that they fumbled, one is when they initiate their attack, that is when they are the strongest, and they failed miserably, and the other is during 2023 when Trump withheld the aid package and hang out the Ukrainian to dry, that they only albe to take Avdviika and around 1200-1500 sq km territories. And since then EU stepped up miltiary aid a lot, and Russian forces degraded a lot. And you think somehow a miracle happens and Ukrainian line would just crumble?

Let me tell you what I know as an infantry staff officer who did intelligence and planning for a living.

To take the entire east side of Dnieper River, Russia would have to deal with around 60 strong point.

For the Russian to roll over the entire Eastern Ukraine (East of the Dneiper) There are 6 different fronts Russia have to cover They are (from top to bottom) Sumy Front, Kharkiv Front, Northern Donbas Front, Southern Donbas Front, Dnipro Front, and Zaporizhzhia Front

The key cities in Sumy Front is circle in black

Sumy Front.jpg

Those are the city Russia HAVE TO take, they can't bypass it as those city control either the MSR/ASR or High Ground, if you don't take those city you don't have freedom of movement.

Other city such as Mykolaivka, Brozna, Putyvl and Ichnia are optional objective, you can either take them or bypass them, but if you by-pass them, you can't encircle the key cities, which mean it's going to take longer to fight in there.

Of those, Sumy itself is a large city, 150 sq km, with a lot of build up area, if we are using the Russian force progress in Bakhmut, it will take at least 3 times as long to take Sumy, and Bakhmut fought for 9 months. Romny, Pryluky, Nizhyn are similar in size with Bakhmut it will take arund 6 to 9 months to go over them, and Mala Divytsia is a small settlement, maybe you can take it in 3 months. That 6 cities alone will cost Russian 4 to 5 years progress. And then you also have the other minor objective to consider.

This is Kharkiv Front

Kharkiv Front.jpg

Kharkiv front is bigger but similar deal with Sumy, all the black circle are important objective, You MUST take them if you want freedom of movement in the area, city between main transit route are again, optional objective

Kharkiv city itself is the SECOND biggest city in Ukraine. Dealing with Kharkiv alone can span years as you need to first taken Vovchansk, Chuhiv Bohodukhiv in order for you to encircle Kharkiv, Kharkiv itself is 350km, that city alone is going to take year to fall. Russia tried to go near them back in May 2022, and have to roll back in August the same year, then you have other cross road town and Kupiansk, Just taking all the key objective here alone would see around 9 years or a decade of work. Not including the optional cities.

This is Northern Donbas Front

Donbas 1.jpg

As with the previous Russian battle plan, the key is to take the trio of "guard dog" first, Siversk, Lyman and Yarova, Russian successful taken Lyman and Yarova in the initiate stage, and then got rolled back, Siversk was seiged, never taken, and any plane to move West would first need to take the 3 cities, and then you need to wait until the Southern front to go up so you can Encircle Kramatosk and Sloviansk, which both city is similar in size with Sumy, which again, it will take 2 to 3 years there alone to felt that city.

And then you have 2 ways into the Ukrainian heart land and connect to Dnipro Oblast. Either go West from Sloviansk and thru Barvinkove or go West from the South via Porovsk.

This alone, will take anywhere from 6 to 8 years (around 2 years to felt all 3 Siversk, Lyman and Yarova, then 2 years each with Sloviansk and Kramatosk., and then another year or 2 thru Barvinkove and optional objective

You then have Southern Donbas

Donbas 2.jpg

Toresk and Charsiv Yar is current operation, Toretask is already 7 months old battle. And Charsiv Yar is almost a year old. Then you are talking about Kostiantvika and Pokrovsk, Kostiantvika is not yet at war, Pokrovsk offensive is 7 months old again. Let's assume they all felt by the end of this year, then you have both Druzhkivka and Konstiantvika to take, let's say it's the same timeframe as Toretsk, it take roughly a year, so in 4 years, you may see Southern Donbas being conquer by Russian.

Then we move on to untapped territories, with more or less intact defensive line

This is Dnipro

Dnipro front.jpg

Each of these city in black circle can easily last 1 or 2 years, with the City of Dnipro going to last more than 3 as this is even bigger than Sumy (410 or 450 sq km), you can't control Eastern Ukraine until Dnipro fall

Then the South is not any better

Zapo front.jpg

Zaporizhzhia is as big as Sumy, that city alone is going to be multiple years affair, then you have Orkhiniv to the south Porvoskse to the west, and Pavlohrad to the north east, all 3 are similar in size with Bakhmut. This is going to take about a year each for it.

You are talking about 4 to 6 years just to go up to Zaporizhzhia alone depending on your progress and whether or not you ignore the optional objective. And then the main even last for maybe 2 to 3 years.

Ukraine won't defend a city to the last men, the entire war they only ever do it twice once in Severodonetsk and the other time in Mariupol you are talking about 50-70% recycle rate which mean the loss of menpower is going to be around 40% each battle, which mean they can attrit the Russian invader.

So that alone will take 2 decade to achieve, Trump will be long gone, probably under the ground by then, it's impossible to in term to just take the key city alone.

Snake said:
How do you handle the cognitive dissonance of "Russian army is weak/slow" and "Russia will take over Ukraine"? Please share your predictions - you already said Ukraine will be in NATO.
Click to expand...

Huh Russian are slow. Let's take a look at the battle compare to the size

  1. Siege of Mariupol - 2022 - 2 months and 27 days - 244 sq km​

  2. Battle of Kherson - 2022 - 7 days - 135.7 sq km​

  3. Battle of Rubizhne - 2022 - 1 month 27 days - 35 sq km​

  4. Battle of Sievierodonetsk - 2022 - 1 month 19 days - 42.1 sq km​

  5. Battle of Lysychansk - 2022 - 13 days - 96 sq km​

  6. Battle of Soledar - 2022 - 2023 - 5 months 13 days - 19 sq km​

  7. Battle of Bahkmut 2023- 10 months 17 days - 41 sq km​

  8. Battle of Marinka 2023- 1 year 8 months 7 days - 51.92 sq km​

  9. Battle of Avdiivka 2023-2024- 4 months 1 week - 29 sq km​

  10. Battle of Novohrodivka 2024- 28 days - 6 sq km​

  11. Battle of Krasnohorivka 2024 - 5 months 1 days - 11 sq km​

  12. Battle of Ukrainsk 2024 - 19 days - 6 sq km​

  13. Battle of Vuhledar 2024- 1 years 11 months 3 days -5.3 sq km​

Did you not see the pattern? Again, there are up to 60 Identified target and 6 key target just in Southern Donbas alone, if we go by this schedule, it would be 2027 before all 6 in southern donbas was taken. And then you have northern donbas to deal with, which is where the main event is. As I said you can't attack Kramatosk and Sloviansk without a southern strike. It's too big to attack head on, and that is given if they can take the 3 cities on top. It's going to be 7 years + to completely control Donbas if we go by this schedule​


(PS I don't know why it become all bold. It was like that after I put the list in order, and I can't change it)

​

Snake said:
Let's wait and see about the coalition, politicians say a lot of things. It's difficult to ignore a party that got 29% of the vote especially if you look at the East-West divide. And remember Germany is not doing well because of this war: they refused to send Taurus to Ukraine, they had nordstream blow up, they have some of the highest energy prices in the world, etc. AfD or the German government only has to stymie the weapon supply to greatly harm Ukraine.

Ukraine is not at the negotiating table.
Click to expand...
AfD can't stymie anything, they have 20% of vote around 18% of the Bundestag, If CDU and SPD agree arms sale or defence aid, that's ball game, because CDU/CSU and SPD combine that's 320 of 630 strong Bundestag......

And yes, we need to wait and see
 
Viet said:
probably $0

those occupied areas are within the range of Ukraine artillery.

considering Putin spends $2 billion a day on this 3 day war, that’s a big gamble.
Click to expand...
He can't tap into any Ukrainian resource he occupied, there were no news but I can assure you underground Ukraine insurgency was there like they did in Kherson. I know because I trained a part of them


newsukraine.rbc.ua

Southern stronghold. Life and dreams of Kherson residents two years after the city's liberation

Read more
newsukraine.rbc.ua newsukraine.rbc.ua

As long as the Russian have no pacify the area, they can't extract resource there, and they can't pacify the region until the active phase of the war is over.
 
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Footage of a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile striking a Ukrainian S-300V air defense system. The video was filmed between the villages of Malyi Bobryk and Velykiy Bobryk in the Sumy region of Ukraine, about 24 km from the border with Russia. The filming was carried out by a Russian drone, the S-300 air defense division of Ukraine was not covered by other air defense systems. The S-300V air defense system is a less common tracked modification of the S-300 air defense system. The S-300V missile launcher is mounted on the chassis of the Pion self-propelled gun. Judging by the video, the Iskander-M missile strike was accurate, just a few meters from the air defense system. As a result of the strike, the missiles exploded in the Ukrainian S-300V air defense system.

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j_hungary said:
Again, you failed to see one thing.

That is without NATO Membership, talk is pointless for Ukraine, for them, that's a point you can't have them remove, unless you have enough progress in the field to basically point it to them "Now it's either total annihilation or accept the peace deal"

Who supplying the Ukrainian is not the question here, whether or not the Russian can make that existential crisis move is the issue here, again, why would I pre-defeated myself when you can't even take half of my land, and Russia don't have to worry about who is supplying Ukraine, because that is for Ukraine to worr



As I said, I am just amaze how you say "they don't do that anymore" when you were quoting Iraqi children die from sanction during the 90s.......


Again, with what? Whether or not US supplies Ukraine have no bearing on how they engineering a Kyiv regime. That regime ain't going anywhere unless someone physically remove them, unless you are saying US physically invade Ukraine, that's would be another issue.

But as we see in the last 3 years of war, even up and down Russia failed to deliver, there are two best chance that they fumbled, one is when they initiate their attack, that is when they are the strongest, and they failed miserably, and the other is during 2023 when Trump withheld the aid package and hang out the Ukrainian to dry, that they only albe to take Avdviika and around 1200-1500 sq km territories. And since then EU stepped up miltiary aid a lot, and Russian forces degraded a lot. And you think somehow a miracle happens and Ukrainian line would just crumble?

Let me tell you what I know as an infantry staff officer who did intelligence and planning for a living.

To take the entire east side of Dnieper River, Russia would have to deal with around 60 strong point.

For the Russian to roll over the entire Eastern Ukraine (East of the Dneiper) There are 6 different fronts Russia have to cover They are (from top to bottom) Sumy Front, Kharkiv Front, Northern Donbas Front, Southern Donbas Front, Dnipro Front, and Zaporizhzhia Front

The key cities in Sumy Front is circle in black

View attachment 103710

Those are the city Russia HAVE TO take, they can't bypass it as those city control either the MSR/ASR or High Ground, if you don't take those city you don't have freedom of movement.

Other city such as Mykolaivka, Brozna, Putyvl and Ichnia are optional objective, you can either take them or bypass them, but if you by-pass them, you can't encircle the key cities, which mean it's going to take longer to fight in there.

Of those, Sumy itself is a large city, 150 sq km, with a lot of build up area, if we are using the Russian force progress in Bakhmut, it will take at least 3 times as long to take Sumy, and Bakhmut fought for 9 months. Romny, Pryluky, Nizhyn are similar in size with Bakhmut it will take arund 6 to 9 months to go over them, and Mala Divytsia is a small settlement, maybe you can take it in 3 months. That 6 cities alone will cost Russian 4 to 5 years progress. And then you also have the other minor objective to consider.

This is Kharkiv Front

View attachment 103708

Kharkiv front is bigger but similar deal with Sumy, all the black circle are important objective, You MUST take them if you want freedom of movement in the area, city between main transit route are again, optional objective

Kharkiv city itself is the SECOND biggest city in Ukraine. Dealing with Kharkiv alone can span years as you need to first taken Vovchansk, Chuhiv Bohodukhiv in order for you to encircle Kharkiv, Kharkiv itself is 350km, that city alone is going to take year to fall. Russia tried to go near them back in May 2022, and have to roll back in August the same year, then you have other cross road town and Kupiansk, Just taking all the key objective here alone would see around 9 years or a decade of work. Not including the optional cities.

This is Northern Donbas Front

View attachment 103706

As with the previous Russian battle plan, the key is to take the trio of "guard dog" first, Siversk, Lyman and Yarova, Russian successful taken Lyman and Yarova in the initiate stage, and then got rolled back, Siversk was seiged, never taken, and any plane to move West would first need to take the 3 cities, and then you need to wait until the Southern front to go up so you can Encircle Kramatosk and Sloviansk, which both city is similar in size with Sumy, which again, it will take 2 to 3 years there alone to felt that city.

And then you have 2 ways into the Ukrainian heart land and connect to Dnipro Oblast. Either go West from Sloviansk and thru Barvinkove or go West from the South via Porovsk.

This alone, will take anywhere from 6 to 8 years (around 2 years to felt all 3 Siversk, Lyman and Yarova, then 2 years each with Sloviansk and Kramatosk., and then another year or 2 thru Barvinkove and optional objective

You then have Southern Donbas

View attachment 103707

Toresk and Charsiv Yar is current operation, Toretask is already 7 months old battle. And Charsiv Yar is almost a year old. Then you are talking about Kostiantvika and Pokrovsk, Kostiantvika is not yet at war, Pokrovsk offensive is 7 months old again. Let's assume they all felt by the end of this year, then you have both Druzhkivka and Konstiantvika to take, let's say it's the same timeframe as Toretsk, it take roughly a year, so in 4 years, you may see Southern Donbas being conquer by Russian.

Then we move on to untapped territories, with more or less intact defensive line

This is Dnipro

View attachment 103705

Each of these city in black circle can easily last 1 or 2 years, with the City of Dnipro going to last more than 3 as this is even bigger than Sumy (410 or 450 sq km), you can't control Eastern Ukraine until Dnipro fall

Then the South is not any better

View attachment 103717

Zaporizhzhia is as big as Sumy, that city alone is going to be multiple years affair, then you have Orkhiniv to the south Porvoskse to the west, and Pavlohrad to the north east, all 3 are similar in size with Bakhmut. This is going to take about a year each for it.

You are talking about 4 to 6 years just to go up to Zaporizhzhia alone depending on your progress and whether or not you ignore the optional objective. And then the main even last for maybe 2 to 3 years.

Ukraine won't defend a city to the last men, the entire war they only ever do it twice once in Severodonetsk and the other time in Mariupol you are talking about 50-70% recycle rate which mean the loss of menpower is going to be around 40% each battle, which mean they can attrit the Russian invader.

So that alone will take 2 decade to achieve, Trump will be long gone, probably under the ground by then, it's impossible to in term to just take the key city alone.



Huh Russian are slow. Let's take a look at the battle compare to the size

  1. Siege of Mariupol - 2022 - 2 months and 27 days - 244 sq km​

  2. Battle of Kherson - 2022 - 7 days - 135.7 sq km​

  3. Battle of Rubizhne - 2022 - 1 month 27 days - 35 sq km​

  4. Battle of Sievierodonetsk - 2022 - 1 month 19 days - 42.1 sq km​

  5. Battle of Lysychansk - 2022 - 13 days - 96 sq km​

  6. Battle of Soledar - 2022 - 2023 - 5 months 13 days - 19 sq km​

  7. Battle of Bahkmut 2023- 10 months 17 days - 41 sq km​

  8. Battle of Marinka 2023- 1 year 8 months 7 days - 51.92 sq km​

  9. Battle of Avdiivka 2023-2024- 4 months 1 week - 29 sq km​

  10. Battle of Novohrodivka 2024- 28 days - 6 sq km​

  11. Battle of Krasnohorivka 2024 - 5 months 1 days - 11 sq km​

  12. Battle of Ukrainsk 2024 - 19 days - 6 sq km​

  13. Battle of Vuhledar 2024- 1 years 11 months 3 days -5.3 sq km​

Did you not see the pattern? Again, there are up to 60 Identified target and 6 key target just in Southern Donbas alone, if we go by this schedule, it would be 2027 before all 6 in southern donbas was taken. And then you have northern donbas to deal with, which is where the main event is. As I said you can't attack Kramatosk and Sloviansk without a southern strike. It's too big to attack head on, and that is given if they can take the 3 cities on top. It's going to be 7 years + to completely control Donbas if we go by this schedule​


(PS I don't know why it become all bold. It was like that after I put the list in order, and I can't change it)

​


AfD can't stymie anything, they have 20% of vote around 18% of the Bundestag, If CDU and SPD agree arms sale or defence aid, that's ball game, because CDU/CSU and SPD combine that's 320 of 630 strong Bundestag......

And yes, we need to wait and see
Click to expand...

From a strategic standpoint, Russia has long since lost the war.

Russia can’t create strategic or operational breakthroughs. It’s been an attritional grind for 2+ years now.
 
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Russians using donkeys for ammo transport🤣
 
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