Russia’s Economic Isolation Gives China Leverage to End Ukraine War

[Yommie]

Chinese are not dumb to ignore Russia knowing that when Russia falls they are next.

Good point. As a neighbor of China, Russia serves as a buffer against Western expansion.

 

[Yommie]

Bro. My argument is that China may not believe it has to do something to avoid the collapse of Russia.

China so far just stand by the side, watching what's happening in Ukraine. We are not part of it. Period.

This ain't the 1800s anymore. China is not a closed door nation anymore. China will pay attention to what happens in the world and act in its interests.

 

[Vi-va]

This ain't the 1800s anymore. China is not a closed door nation anymore. China will pay attention to what happens in the world and act in its interests.

You think U.S. is a closed-door nation in ww1 and ww2? But U.S. just stood by the side, watching what was happening in Europe. Until the last moment, U.S. decided to take some decisive action. That's called King Maker.

U.S. intervened WW1, made alliances with UK and France, and defeated Germany. Then what? UK and Frane drove U.S. out of Europe, U.S. got nothing in return in WW1.

U.S. intervened WW2, made alliances with UK and France, and defeated Germany again, exactly the same way. Then what? UK and France kneeled, begged U.S. to stay. U.S. got a tremendous strategic and economic return.

You see the difference?

It has little to do with being a closed-door nation or not. It has little to do with the distance from the war.

China will gain nothing from the war if China gets herself involved, just like U.S. contributed a lot in WW1 then returned home with empty hands.

Let Europeans and Americans figure out how to deal with the Ukraine War. We are not part of it this time.

 

[Yommie]

You think U.S. is a closed-door nation in ww1 and ww2? But U.S. just stood by the side, watching what was happening in Europe. Until the last moment, U.S. decided to take some decisive action. That's called King Maker.

U.S. intervened WW1, made alliances with UK and France, and defeated Germany. Then what? UK and Frane drove U.S. out of Europe, U.S. got nothing in return in WW1.

U.S. intervened WW2, made alliances with UK and France, and defeated Germany again, exactly the same way. Then what? UK and France kneeled, begged U.S. to stay. U.S. got a tremendous strategic and economic return.

You see the difference?

It has little to do with being a closed-door nation or not. It has little to do with the distance from the war.

China will gain nothing from the war if China gets herself involved, just like U.S. contributed a lot in WW1 then returned home with empty hands.

Let Europeans and Americans figure out how to deal with the Ukraine War. We are not part of it this time.

China will defend its neighbors, as China has done in North Korea in the 1950s and Vietnam in the 1960s.

 

[Vi-va]

the russians destroyed chinese silkroad. They killed off chinese relationship to the west. Russia relationship is Europe damaged beyond repair. They bring deaths, destructions, deportations to Ukraine. They cause more hunger, poverty to least developed countries. They bring the world closer to nuclear holocaust.

I am not sure if the Chinese make bigger profits when selling EVs to Russia. or buying Putin’s cheap oil.

China will do whatever is in China's interest. So far so good. We are not part of this damn bloody war, but we are potential King Maker.

So both Russia and Europe rely on external powers like U.S and China now.

You see, India got billions of dollars of profit from this war, no condemnation from Russia or Europe, except some complains which is not a big deal at all.

This is called independent foreign policy of Great Powa.

 

[Vi-va]

China will defend its neighbors, as China has done in North Korea in the 1950s and Vietnam in the 1960s.

I don't see that will happen. How would Russia react if NATO launch a full scale invasion? Nuke, for sure.

There is no NATO invasion in the first place. Your analogy is baseless.

 

[Yommie]

I don't see that will happen. How would Russia react if NATO launch a full scale invasion? Nuke, for sure.

There is no NATO invasion in the first place. Your analogy is baseless.

NATO is always a threat to Russia. China ain't letting Russia fall. Russia is a buffer for China.

 

[Vi-va]

NATO is always a threat to Russia. China ain't letting Russia fall. Russia is a buffer for China.

I believe a buffer is needed. But it can be anything other than Russia.

Don't get me wrong. Russia is a great power, it's no one's buffer.

 

[Yommie]

I believe a buffer is needed. But it can be anything other than Russia.

Russia is a China neighbor. Every neighbor of China is a buffer. China's unspoken policy is every neighbor of China is under China's military protection.

 

[Vi-va]

Russia is a China neighbor. Every neighbor of China is a buffer. China's unspoken policy is every neighbor of China is under China's military protection.

I am Chinese. I don't have the view that other countries will behave in China's interest.

You see, Russia is a great power, it's no one's buffer.

There is a big difference between a buffer state and Russia.

Even North Korea is not exactly a buffer state.

 

[Yommie]

I am Chinese. I don't have the view that other countries will behave in China's interest.

You see, Russia is a great power, it's no one's buffer.

There is a big difference between a buffer state and Russia.

Even North Korea is not exactly a buffer state.

That's why you are not Xi. You know little compared to Xi. You don't make decisions for China. Xi make decisions for China.

 

[silicon0000]

Russia’s Economic Isolation Gives China Leverage to End Ukraine War​

BY RENAUD FOUCART JULY 2, 2024

Russia’s dependence on China applies not just to energy but also to a broad range of sectors of the economy.

Western leaders are becoming increasingly frustrated by China’s role in enabling the war in Ukraine. Some have even openly threatened to sanction the country if it continues to provide Russia with the materials it needs to build more weapons.
And they are right to focus on China’s position of power. Russia is now so dependent on the only major economy still taking the risk to support its regime, that China could effectively force Vladimir Putin to end the conflict.
The extent of Russia’s economic dependence became apparent fairly quickly after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Just a few months later, things were not going to plan.
In the hope of putting pressure on European countries supporting Ukraine, Russia decided to cut almost all of its exports of gas to the West. Before the war, Russia had provided about 40 percent of Europe’s gas.
While at first that decision provoked an energy crisis and a surge in bills across the continent, Europe eventually managed to wean itself from Russia’s supply. They did this in part by replacing gas with other sources of energy, but also by substituting Russian imports with gas from other countries, including the U.S.
Electricity prices in Europe are now roughly back to pre-war levels. And while gas prices are still high, they have dropped, with storage facilities expected to be almost full later this year.
So now Russia faces a massive problem of its own: selling its gas.
For the first time in over 20 years, the Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom sustained a financial loss in 2023. Until then, the customs and tax revenues from the company contributed around 10 percent of the country’s budget.
Revenue from oil exports has also decreased. As Western countries have banned Russian oil, the country is forced to sell it for less, absorbing the additional costs of transporting production to the likes of China and India while mainstream transporters refuse to risk carrying it.
As for natural gas, geography makes things even worse for Russia. China is the only potential customer large enough to justify a new pipeline to replace the ones that used to deliver to Europe. But given this privileged position, China feels able to demand the gas at a huge discount.
In this kind of bargaining situation, China has the upper hand.
China can buy gas from anywhere in the world, but Russia can only sell it (at the volumes it needs) to China. Then there is the question of urgency — Russia needs to finance a war now, while China has no pressing energy need it cannot fulfill.

Bargaining Basement​

Russia’s dependence on China applies to other sectors of the economy too. The Chinese yuan now accounts for 54 percent of trades in Russia’s stock exchange since it was cut off from the global banking system in 2022. It has no credible alternative to replace that money if China started to apply similar sanctions.
Even more crucial for the war, China is responsible for around 90 percent of Russia’s import of “high priority” dual-use goods — electronic components, radars, sensors — without which it could not build advanced military hardware. Again, there is no alternative supplier.
It is hard to win a war with only North Korea and Iran — two countries themselves subject to heavy economic sanctions — on your side. In short, this means that China is now in a position to demand anything from Russia.
And in potential negotiations between China and the West, both have much to gain — and a similar bargaining position to each other.
For example, China is facing considerable domestic economic problems of its own. One of these stems from industrial overcapacity and the need to find buyers for all the products it manufactures. But the U.S. has just imposed a 100 percent border tax on electric cars from China, and 50 percent on solar cells. The EU is doing something similar and considering asking Chinese firms to make electric vehicles in Europe, sharing their technology.
Taxing cheap products which could reduce carbon emissions may seem like a self-defeating strategy given the urgent need to finance the energy transition. So perhaps the West wants to avoid becoming too dependent on China, for the same bargaining reasons that make Russia’s current position so weak.
But the balance is not the same. China needs Western markets, and the West needs China’s green industrial capacity and know-how, as the country now installs more renewable capacity every year than the rest of the world combined.
Europe is still facing difficult economic times, and a tariff is essentially an extra tax burden on European consumers. Everyone would benefit from the trade war toning down, and China has something very valuable to offer. For all intents and purposes, it now owns Russia and could use this power to end the war in Ukraine.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Doesn't the same apply to India in the same way? After China, the Russian economy is supported by India. Western countries might not have enough leverage on China, but if they are serious, can they use their leverage on India? India alone purchases around 45-50 billion dollars' worth of oil from Russia.

 

[Yommie]

Doesn't the same apply to India in the same way? After China, the Russian economy is supported by India. Western countries might not have enough leverage on China, but if they are serious, can they use their leverage on India? India alone purchases around 45-50 billion dollars' worth of oil from Russia.

West is not powerful enough to bully India. India has 1.3 billion people.

 

[silicon0000]

West is not powerful enough to bully India. India has 1.3 billion people.

same applies to china also.

My point is if they really serious (either through bullying or requesting) India isn't the better prospect than china?

 

[Yommie]

same applies to china also.

My point is if they really serious (either through bullying or requesting) India isn't the better prospect than china?

India and China are both quite pro Russia. It goes back decades.