Syrian Civil War and The future of Syria after liberation
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LeGenD
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Laila Alrefaai is a Syrian academic researcher and teacher with specialization in religious studies. Her publications can be checked here, here and here. The research paper in question uses many sources to establish its findings and is published in an academic journal Rowaq Arabi. So how it is biased and have no credibility? Another research paper has refuted her findings directly? I would like to see it.
The Assad setup was a role model government in the region and all in Syria were content with its policies? Syria never had Islamic groups to begin with? The Assad setup never had a working relationship with various groups in the region?
Let's check some facts.
There was an Islamic Uprising in Syria in 1976 that continued till 1982. This historical development serve as a reminder of the fact that modern societies can be multi-ethnic and multi-faceted in their internal construct with potential for political upheavals.
The Assad setup had a working relationship with various groups in the region:
- The Assad setup had a working relationship with the islamic Jihad Organization (iJO), Palestinian islamic Jihad (PiJ), the Popular Front for the liberation of Palestine, the Popular Front for the liberation of Palestine-General command (PFlP-Gc), and Hamas.
- The Assad setup also had a working relationship with Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon but officially denied it.
- The Assad setup had a working relationship with Lebanese Hezbollah and allowed Hezbollah to establish its base of operations in Syria.
- The Assad setup hosted Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) fighters.
The Assad setup allowed many Islamic militants to move from Syria to Iraq since 2003. I mentioned two names in a post that you ignored so I am repeating them here.
- How the Jordanian national Abu Musaab al-Zarqawi reached Iraq in 2003? This man was KILLED in 2006.
- How the Syrian national Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) reached Iraq in 2003? This man was ARRESTED in 2006.
There two are but well-known individuals. Hundreds of Islamic militants moved from Syria to Iraq with the intent to expand Iraqi insurgency leading to much bloodshed in the country unfortunately. You can find rich information here.
Western sources have much role in creating and advancing education and information around the world. Western sources typically provide more evidence of global developments than local sources in many countries. WE cannot have a rich understanding of global developments by ignoring Western sources. Virtually any member of this forum has used a Western source to support a particular argument at some point so why should I ignore such? This is not a sound position to take in a debate.
unconventional
Registered Member
a) Laila Alrefaai is not a credible impartial source, period. It does not need to be refuted as this is a person is a nobody.
b) Assad regime was a Baathist regime in Syria, similar to what Saddam was in Iraq.
They might have had a working relationship with PIJ, Hamas, other Iraqi and Palestinian factions supportive of the Palestinian cause; factions that were created as a consequence to Israeli imperialism in the region.
These groups are different from Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Al-Nusrah, HTS etc. in the sense of how they used Takfiri ideology to target other Muslims.
PIJ, Hamas, other Palestinian factions might have a somewhat similar religious ideology, but they were strictly focused on Palestinian issues. And they were also different in how they were created.
These groups (PIJ, Hamas, other Palestinian factions) were a result of occupation/ imperialism in the region and were never actively supported by US/Israel; whereas there was active support for Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Al-Nusrah, HTS by US/Israel and they were used by US/Israel to achieve strategic goals in the region (dilute support for Palestine, regime change in Syria).
c) You asked how did Zarqawi get from Jordan to Iraq? You realize that there is a direct border between Jordan and Iraq, you don't need to go through Syria?
d) You talk about Syrian national Jolani reaching Iraq in 2003. And being arrested in Iraq by US forces in 2006.
You do understand that the US invasion of Iraq started a huge sectarian war in Iraq? Al-Qaeda in Iraq was created as a result of this war. The pretext of this war was WMDs, but this war was fought at the behest of Netanyahu, to stir up sectarian warfare as part of a regime change operation in 7 Muslim majority countries (Iraq and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and finishing off Iran) in 5 years.
Jolani was a Sunni Muslim, who went to Iraq in 2003. I am not sure if he had engaged in any illegal activities prior to 2003.
The question is, why did the US release Jolani in 2011? 2011 is the year the Syrian civil war(/regime change sponsored by the US) went into full force, and Jolani was part of the US plan to overthrow the Assad regime. It is clear that Jolani was doing the US work post 2011. His story is similar to Mossab Hassan when he was caught by the Israelis, he got the “reset” in Israeli prison (similar to what Jolani did in US prison), and he is on their payroll now, and doing their bidding.
I have proven to you that literally none of your points show any support from Assad to these Salafi Jihadis.
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Bharatah
SpeedLimited
They used Erdogan but they are already throwing him in the trash, the "protests" in Turkey are part of a color revolution that will replace Erdogan, I know this because here in the "West" it is already being reported in the mold of classic color revolutions. This means that the "transition" of the terrorist puppet Al Joolani will not last "decades" as in past cases*, they put Al Joolani in but as soon as Erdogan falls there in Turkey, the new Turkish government will withdraw support for Al Joolani(the Turkish "opposition" says it is against "Islamism" and already has the argument created in the media to abandon Syria) and then the US/Israel will administer Syria, this is the plan.
This is the reason why "Israel" is advancing in Syria and the puppet government of AlJoolani(along with Erdogan) is doing nothing. "Israel" is ready to enter Damascus in a few years, this is all set up.
And this is the reason why Iran did nothing because in the future, this will all turn around for the "ayatollas" to take over the local resistance. Remembering that Assad allowed Iran to pass weapons to Lebanon but never allowed "Israel" to be attacked from Syria, in the future, Iran will arm a new "proxie" to attack from there, when this "fake transitory Syria" falls and "Israel" controls the country, and This will be another war front for "Israel", which alone will have difficulty in handling 7/8 fronts at the same time, even against weaker opponents.
NOTE: *This process of dominating a country has 3 phases:
- Create internal chaos with civil war
- After fall of government comes transitional government
- US or NATO take over the country after the end of the "transition".
The issue is that this process used to last about 20 years, but in the case of Syria it is already being prepared at a much faster pace.
This is the reason why "Israel" is advancing in Syria and the puppet government of AlJoolani(along with Erdogan) is doing nothing. "Israel" is ready to enter Damascus in a few years, this is all set up.
And this is the reason why Iran did nothing because in the future, this will all turn around for the "ayatollas" to take over the local resistance. Remembering that Assad allowed Iran to pass weapons to Lebanon but never allowed "Israel" to be attacked from Syria, in the future, Iran will arm a new "proxie" to attack from there, when this "fake transitory Syria" falls and "Israel" controls the country, and This will be another war front for "Israel", which alone will have difficulty in handling 7/8 fronts at the same time, even against weaker opponents.
NOTE: *This process of dominating a country has 3 phases:
- Create internal chaos with civil war
- After fall of government comes transitional government
- US or NATO take over the country after the end of the "transition".
The issue is that this process used to last about 20 years, but in the case of Syria it is already being prepared at a much faster pace.
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unconventional
Registered Member
a) Laila Alrefaai is not a credible impartial source, period. It does not need to be refuted as this is a person is a nobody.
b) Assad regime was a Baathist regime in Syria, similar to what Saddam was in Iraq.
They might have had a working relationship with PIJ, Hamas, other Iraqi and Palestinian factions supportive of the Palestinian cause; factions that were created as a consequence to Israeli imperialism in the region.
These groups are different from Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Al-Nusrah, HTS etc. in the sense of how they used Takfiri ideology to target other Muslims.
PIJ, Hamas, other Palestinian factions might have a somewhat similar religious ideology, but they were strictly focused on Palestinian issues. And they were also different in how they were created.
These groups (PIJ, Hamas, other Palestinian factions) were a result of occupation/ imperialism in the region and were never actively supported by US/Israel; whereas there was active support for Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Al-Nusrah, HTS by US/Israel and they were used by US/Israel to achieve strategic goals in the region (dilute support for Palestine, regime change in Syria).
c) You asked how did Zarqawi get from Jordan to Iraq? You realize that there is a direct border between Jordan and Iraq, you don't need to go through Syria?
d) You talk about Syrian national Jolani reaching Iraq in 2003. And being arrested in Iraq by US forces in 2006.
You do understand that the US invasion of Iraq started a huge sectarian war in Iraq? Al-Qaeda in Iraq was created as a result of this war. The pretext of this war was WMDs, but this war was fought at the behest of Netanyahu, to stir up sectarian warfare as part of a regime change operation in 7 Muslim majority countries (Iraq and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and finishing off Iran) in 5 years.
Jolani was a Sunni Muslim, who went from Syria to Iraq in 2003. I am not sure if he had engaged in any illegal activities prior to 2003. Nor any connections between Jolani and the Assad regime.
The question is, why did the US release Jolani in 2011? 2011 is the year the Syrian civil war(/regime change sponsored by the US) went into full force, and Jolani was part of the US plan to overthrow the Assad regime. It is clear that Jolani was doing the US work post 2011. His story is similar to Mossab Hassan when he was caught by the Israelis, he got the “reset” in Israeli prison (similar to what Jolani did in US prison), and he is on their payroll now, and doing their bidding. He was a nobody in 2003, going for “Jihad” in Iraq; caught by the Americans from 2006-11 and kept in US prison, had his system reboot there; and then released by the US to do its bidding in Iraq and Syria.
I have proven to you that literally none of your points show any support from Assad to these Salafi Jihadis.
unconventional
Registered Member
“Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq—an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right—as a means of foiling Syria’s regional ambitions”
Clean Break policy paper.
Regime change in Syria and Iraq was in the works a long time ago, preceding the 2003 Iraq war. In fact, this is the policy document the US followed to invade Iraq in 2003, and target Syria afterwards. It had nothing to with counterinsurgency or counterterrorism.
Clean Break policy paper.
Regime change in Syria and Iraq was in the works a long time ago, preceding the 2003 Iraq war. In fact, this is the policy document the US followed to invade Iraq in 2003, and target Syria afterwards. It had nothing to with counterinsurgency or counterterrorism.
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unconventional
Registered Member
“This is a playoff situation in which you need both teams to lose, but at least you don’t want one to win – we’ll settle for a tie,….Let them both bleed, hemorrhage to death...”
We know US money has been behind most if not all Islamic terrorist groups since the Cold War. If you want to topple countries due to terrorist threats there, it helps to make sure they exist, doesn't it?
And Israel has a long history with knowing how to do terrorism: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA047231(Direct link to pdf: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA047231.pdf )
There is NO prospect of a peaceful future for Syria under the revolutionaries. Israel & the US will not allow it. They may allow them to win, but only so they can be crushed in turn.
- This is a 2015 article about Israel's long-term plans for MENA and how they had progressed to that point. It began with a 1982 outline that discussed the need to break apart every hostile Arab state into minority enclaves. It identified Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Syria & Egypt as targets.
- The means for accomplishing this are hinted in 1984 at a Johnathan Institute conference, where George W Bush's policy opinions for MENA were formed: https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Washington_Conference_on_International_Terrorism
- This led to a 1992 Israeli policy paper "A Clean Break": https://archive.md/TlkDw
- By 2006, we know from cables released by wikileaks that America was discussing how to begin an uprising in Syria: https://truthout.org/articles/wikil...-regime-change-in-syria-igniting-a-bloodbath/
We know US money has been behind most if not all Islamic terrorist groups since the Cold War. If you want to topple countries due to terrorist threats there, it helps to make sure they exist, doesn't it?
And Israel has a long history with knowing how to do terrorism: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA047231(Direct link to pdf: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA047231.pdf )
- Israel has admitted multiple times to helping various rebel groups, including weapons, cash & medical aid: https://x.com/Jase_C/status/1863574916207083542?t=an4H3obwKc9Ut95xiX3FiQ&s=19
There is NO prospect of a peaceful future for Syria under the revolutionaries. Israel & the US will not allow it. They may allow them to win, but only so they can be crushed in turn.
unconventional
Registered Member
The US admitted that rebels they trained joined al Nusra.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/world/middleeast/cia-syria-rebel-arm-train-trump.html
Israel repeatedly admitted helping Nusra and al Qaeda
https://m.jpost.com/middle-east/rep...da-fighters-wounded-in-syria-civil-war-393862
They also threatened this since April last year
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israe...f-syria-gets-involved-in-gaza-war-report/amp/
This interview is with James Jeffrey, a US ambassador, about Syria. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/james-jeffrey/
He's not going to admit everything in public so what he does admit is telling;
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2...-linked-leader-an-asset-to-us-syria-strategy/
Article from 2013 about a very quickly deleted Daily Mail article saying the US planned to fake a chemical attack in Syria at the behest of Qatar: https://archive.is/QhNw3
A video discussing the Duma chemical weapon attack and how OPCW whistleblowers revealed it was not a chemical weapon attack:
A timeline of the chemical attacks and allegations in Syria. Note the biggest one came right afterAssad had invited inspectors to visit the country:
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/timeline-syrian-chemical-weapons-activity-2012-2022
Also, note the death counts of the attacks. Sometimes none, sometimes a couple, sometimes more than 20... This was a country with a military-grade chemical weapons program. The first timechlorine gas was used in WW1 at Ypres, it killed 1,100 people:
https://www.kumc.edu/school-of-medi...ly against unprotected,its first use at Ypres.
In that timeline you can see it took half a year to dismantle all Syria's chemical weapons.. but all they had was dilute sarin and chlorine that barely killed anyone?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/world/middleeast/cia-syria-rebel-arm-train-trump.html
Israel repeatedly admitted helping Nusra and al Qaeda
https://m.jpost.com/middle-east/rep...da-fighters-wounded-in-syria-civil-war-393862
They also threatened this since April last year
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israe...f-syria-gets-involved-in-gaza-war-report/amp/
This interview is with James Jeffrey, a US ambassador, about Syria. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/james-jeffrey/
He's not going to admit everything in public so what he does admit is telling;
- They got a waiver for aid to go to Idlib knowing it would end up with HTS.
- They consider Syria the lynchpin of American control in the region, and HTS the lynchpin of Syria falling fully under Russian influence.
- He claims HTS is Turkey's main group.
- He admits the US ran a "terrorist training camp" at Bucca but says they just "didn't know" what was going on or how it would turn out, and admits Jolani tried to contact America many times but claims they weren't that interested. Tons of terrorist leaders have come out of Bucca. But America didn't notice them, despite keeping nobodies at Guantanamo for decades.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2...-linked-leader-an-asset-to-us-syria-strategy/
Article from 2013 about a very quickly deleted Daily Mail article saying the US planned to fake a chemical attack in Syria at the behest of Qatar: https://archive.is/QhNw3
A video discussing the Duma chemical weapon attack and how OPCW whistleblowers revealed it was not a chemical weapon attack:
A timeline of the chemical attacks and allegations in Syria. Note the biggest one came right afterAssad had invited inspectors to visit the country:
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/timeline-syrian-chemical-weapons-activity-2012-2022
Also, note the death counts of the attacks. Sometimes none, sometimes a couple, sometimes more than 20... This was a country with a military-grade chemical weapons program. The first timechlorine gas was used in WW1 at Ypres, it killed 1,100 people:
https://www.kumc.edu/school-of-medi...ly against unprotected,its first use at Ypres.
In that timeline you can see it took half a year to dismantle all Syria's chemical weapons.. but all they had was dilute sarin and chlorine that barely killed anyone?
LeGenD
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
a) This is NOT evidence-based refutation of her research paper but subjective disagreement with it. There are more research papers from other authors that have similar findings.
After 9/11, Assad denounced the attack and even offered his country’s unqualified support to the fight against jihadi terrorism. But Syrian rhetoric conflicted with its actions. Assad’s security services continued to give radical Islamists space to operate. The American invasion of Iraq put the regime and the U.S. in direct opposition. The Syrian Grand Mufti – a regime puppet – declared jihad in Iraq an individual duty upon
all Muslims. Thousands of Syrians and non-Syrian heeded his call and were bussed through official border entry points to Iraq. None of these measures would have been possible without the regime’s consent and even encouragement.
The Syrian regime allowed al-Qaeda’s networks to operate inside Syrian territory, though it sought to reduce the foreign fighters’ transit time through the country to reduce the threat they might pose to the regime. The most important al-Qaeda network in Syria was led by an Iraqi operative of al-Qaeda’s Iraqi branch, Abu Ghadiya. His net-work facilitated the movement of fighters, weapons, and money into Iraq. At the peak of the Iraqi conflict, Abu Ghadiya sent between 120 and 150 foreign fighters monthly. Information from captured al-Qaeda operatives revealed that Syria’s support for the jihadi insurgents in Iraq went beyond travel facilitation, including also some military and religious training for the local and foreign volunteers organized by the regime’s agent Abu Qaqaa. According to American intelligence reports, al-Qaeda operatives injured in Iraq sometimes received medical treatment in a hospital in Damascus. The jihadi base in Zabadani from which Abu Ghadiya operated also served as a meeting location for Syrian security officials, Iraqi Baathists, and al-Qaeda leaders.
The U.S. raised Syria’s cooperation with al-Qaeda in numerous contacts with regime officials. Much of the evidence was collected by JSOC (Joint Special Operations Command) on the ground in Syria and used in demarches to the regime. The Assad regime responded to American and international pressure with denial, claims of ignor-ance and innocence, and, on occasion, with weak action to falsely demonstrate its com-mitment to fighting the jihadis. For example, in response to external pressures, the regime deployed additional forces along the Iraqi border, constructed and manned hun-dreds of new border posts, and took other measures to disrupt existing smuggling lanes. Around 2005, the regime began arresting al-Qaeda operatives and required smugglers to stop the transfer of foreign fighters. But the regime’s commitment was never genuine: many of the arrested facilitators were soon released. Their operation did
not stop; it simply went underground. According to the investigative journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Roy Gutman, the regime knew more about the jihadis than it was
willing to admit. It kept tabs on every volunteer, not to prevent jihadis from fighting in Iraq, but to reduce the danger of a blowback.
The Limits of Ideologically-Unlikely Partnerships: Syria’s Support for Jihadi Terrorist Groups
Another research paper that sheds light on these realities and references therein.
Why do you think a research paper contains references? Because references provide evidence to support claims in a research paper. Academic journal(s) also consider the peer review process to evaluate and accept a research paper for publication. Therefore, a research paper is a good source to cite and use in human discourses.
b) Yes, but the Assad setup had interests of its own in the region.
I understand these differences. My point is that Syria has history of homegrown Islamic movement and uprisings: (1) The Islamist Uprising in Syria, 1976–82: The History and Legacy of a Failed Revolt; and (2) Syria's Islamic Movement and the 2011-12 Uprising. The Assad setup wasn't democratic but authoritarian and attempted to reduce potential threats to its existence by cultivating a working relationship with many groups in the region. The Assad setup also supported violent groups in neighboring countries such as Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon, Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey, and Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) in Iraq. In doing so, the Assad setup gave NATO the incentive to plot its downfall.
c) My apologies. I incorrectly claimed that Ahmad Fadeel al Nazal al Khulayleh (Abu Musaab al-Zarqawi) was living in Jordan and moved to Iraq via Syria. He was living in Pakistan and moved to Iraq via Iran in 2001. He founded Jamaat al Tauhid wal Jihad in Iraq, this group was internationally identified as AQI in 2004.
d) The US is certainly working to reduce threats to Israel in the Middle East. However, I shall point out that Iraqi defectors and political exiles were involved in stoking animosty between the US and the Saddam setup and shaping American narrative. Let's have a look at the following perspective:
Despite only amounting to around one-fifth of the population, Sunni Arabs had controlled Iraqi politics for decades, including during the rule of Saddam Hussein. However, upon occupying the country, the U.S. disbanded the Iraqi military and removed all members of Saddam Hussein’s Ba’ath Party from the government. Especially once democratic elections gave the Shia majority a strong hold on power, disaffected Sunni often joined the insurgency. So too did al-Qaeda extremists, who were able to gain a following in Iraq by playing to Sunni grievances against the U.S. occupation. Already brewing tensions and violence between Sunni and Shia Iraqis exploded in early 2006 after al-Qaeda bombed the Al-Askari Mosque in Samarra, one of holiest sites in Shia Islam. On this February 23, 2006, episode of The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, aired immediately after the mosque bombing, two Middle East experts express concern that the attack would lead to intensified sectarian violence. Indeed, the Al-Askari bombing is often considered the beginning of a Sunni-Shia civil war that led to tens of thousands of civilian deaths and marked the bloodiest years of the U.S. occupation.
Link
Abu Musaab al-Zarqawi set the stage for Iraqi Sectarian War in response to American crackdown on AQI in Tal Afar: (1) Al-Zarqawi declares war on Iraqi Shia; and (2)
Zarqawi's 'Total War' on Iraqi Shiites Exposes a Divide among Sunni Jihadists. He managed to exploit sectarian tensions in Iraq to his benefit but lost his life in 2006.
The US closed Camp Bucca in Iraq because many were held there without trial and this policy wasn't popular in Iraq. Camp Bucca was also controversial due to the Abu Ghraib scandal. However, it is possible that the US saw potential in Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa to help defeat the Assad setup.
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unconventional
Registered Member
Instead of quoting from biased sources (publications from Western think tanks and obscure people) that theorize Assad’s support for Islamic parties (I was asking specifically about Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Al-Nusrah, HTS but you are talking about other groups); show the paper trail of financial support, arms support, political support and ideological support by Assad to specifically Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Al-Nusrah and HTS); Can you do that?
unconventional
Registered Member
Op-Ed: The pundits were wrong about Assad and the Islamic State. As usual, they’re not willing to admit it
The Islamic State is a shadow of its former self. In 2014, the extremist group seemed to make substantial inroads in achieving its stated goal of a caliphate. It boasted tens of thousands of fighters and territorial control over an area roughly the size of South Korea. By almost every metric, Islamic State has collapsed in its Syria stronghold, as well as in Iraq. As a former foreign fighter recently admitted, “It’s over: there is no more Daesh left,” using an Arabic acronym for Islamic State.
The rollback of Islamic State must come as a shock to the chorus of journalists and analysts who spent years insisting that such progress would never happen without toppling the regime of Bashar Assad — which is, of course, still standing. A cavalcade of opinion makers long averred that Islamic State would thrive in Syria so long as Assad ruled because the Syrian Arab Army was part of the same disease.
John Bolton, former United Nations ambassador under George W. Bush, insisted in the New York Times that “defeating the Islamic State” is “neither feasible nor desirable” if Assad remains in power. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Sens. John McCain and Lindsey Graham asserted that “defeating Islamic State also requires defeating Bashar Assad.” Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution prescribed a policy of “building a new Syrian opposition army capable of defeating both President Bashar al-Assad and the more militant Islamists.” Similarly, Max Boot, a contributing writer to this newspaper, argued that vanquishing Islamic State was futile unless the U.S. also moved to depose the “Alawite regime in Damascus.” Like other regime-change salesmen, he pitched a no-fly zone across the country to facilitate airstrikes against the Assad government, while boosting aid to the so-called moderate rebels.
Prominent Syria analysts also claimed that Assad supported, even sponsored Islamic State. CNN’s Michael Weiss pushed the line that Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin would not fight Islamic State and that Syria and Russia were the group’s “unacknowledged air force.” His co-author, Hassan Hassan, contended that the Syrian regime must go because “Assad has never fought [Islamic State] before.”
For a while, everywhere one looked, the media was peddling the same narrative. The Daily Beast described Islamic State fighters as “Assad’s henchmen.” The New York Times promoted the idea that “Assad’s forces” have been “aiding” Islamic State by “not only avoiding” the group “but actively seeking to bolster their position.” Timeparroted the pro-regime-change line that “Bashar Assad won’t fight” Islamic State.
But these popular arguments were, to put it mildly, empirically challenged.
The case for regime change in Damascus was reminiscent of the one cooked up for Baghdad in 2003: Interventionists played on American fears by pretending that the strongmen were in direct cahoots with Salafi jihadists (the ultra-conservative movement within Sunni Islam). The evidence of Assad sponsoring Islamic State, however, was about as strong as for Saddam Hussein sponsoring Al Qaeda.
As the Syria expert Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi noted in February 2014, Islamic State “has a record of fighting the regime on multiple fronts, including the Sheikh Said area of Aleppo province, Kwiris military airbase (where an offensive is ongoing under the leadership of muhajireen battalion Suqur al-Izz, in coordination with the Green Battalion, [Islamic State] and Jabhat al-Nusra), Nubl and Zahara, Brigade 17 airbase in Raqqa province, Tabqa military airport, Qalamoun, Sayyida Zainab, Sakhna in Homs desert, the Qamishli area, and Latakia province. Besides these locations, one should also remember [Islamic State’s] leading role in the capture of Mannagh airbase.”
The notion that Assad “won’t fight” Islamic State was always wrong. The notion that “defeating Islamic State also requires defeating Bashar Assad” was, likewise, always wrong. By now it should be obvious that the Syrian Arab Army has played a role in degrading Islamic State in Syria — not alone, of course, but with Russian and Iranian partners, not to mention the impressive U.S.-led coalition. In marked contrast to pundit expectations, the group’s demise was inversely related to Assad’s power. Islamic State’s fortunes decreased as his influence in the country increased.
Equally contrary to analyst predictions, the group imploded right after external support for the “moderate” rebels dried up. The weakening of the rebels was a major setback for Islamic State because Assad could finally focus his firepower on the group. Fewer weapon shipments into the theater, moreover, meant fewer arms fell into the hands of Salafi jihadists.
How strange, then, that we haven’t heard many pundits acknowledge their mistakes; they’re not itching to atone for having almost forced another regime-change mission based on discredited analysis.
The now-defunct conventional wisdom was not only stubbornly anti-empirical, but unmoored from the political science literature. With few exceptions, international relations scholars seemed content to stand back and watch think tank pundits do the day-to-day Syria analysis while ignoring the red flags dotting the research landscape.
Some of the bestpoliticalscienceresearch over the past couple of decades finds that militants are less likely to emerge in response to political grievances than from propitious conditions for them to organize. For Islamic State, the “opportunity model” of terrorism was always a better fit than the “grievance model.” After all, this is a group that set up shop in the desert, far away from the Syrian military; preyed on soft targets like the Yazidis who never oppressed the Sunni population; and planted affiliates in countries known not for their anti-Sunni government, but the lack of a functioning one.
As in Iraq a decade earlier, regime change in Syria would have created the ultimate power vacuum for Islamic State to flourish.
Moreover, the notion that pumping arms and fighters into Syria would mitigate the unrest is actually the opposite of what study after study has established. The conflict literature makes clear that external support for the opposition tends to exacerbate and extend civil wars, which usually peter out not through power-sharing agreements among fighting equals, but when one side — typically, the incumbent — achieves dominance.
The Realist paradigm reminds us that the U.S. need not share the same ideology of a nasty international actor to countenance working with him against a mutual foe. With its sensitivity to overspending and blowback, Realism also emphasizes the dangers of militarily picking foreign governments around the world.
Although the Islamic State’s caliphate is dead, Assad’s war on terrorists in Syria is very much alive. Let’s hope future analysis of this conflict avoids the kind of anti-empirical ideological advocacy that helped give rise to Al Qaeda in Iraq and then Islamic State in the first place.
Max Abrahms is a professor of political science at Northeastern University and a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations. John Glaser is director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.
Op-Ed: The pundits were wrong about Assad and the Islamic State. As usual, they're not willing to admit it
The Islamic State is a shadow of its former self.
www.latimes.com
LeGenD
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Research findings that do not conform to your worldview or tell us something different are biased by default? No theme can be properly understood with this mindset. Every research paper has references that you can independently check for required information. Nothing obscure in this type of literature, rather helpful.
The Assad setup was not exactly renowned for transparency and popular support. It played all sides until the game became too complex for it to manage.
It is not difficult for a militant group to create an economy. Virtually any militant group understands local conditions and system and how to take advantage of it. Check following links for perspective: Where ISIS Gets Its Weapons and How ISIS runs its economy.
No rocket science in it.
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LeGenD
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Unsubstantiated papers? They contain well-documented references to support their findings and are published in academic journals (peer-reviewed). You dismiss them on purpose and post a Western opinionated article and think it is reliable? Are you illiterate or lacking in education? You seem to show it in every response. I am not whitewashimg crimes of any state, this is yet another subjective spin that you are trying to give to my disclosures in this thread and resort to ad-hominem. I can post much about political games of Iran as well but you won't like it. Keep your attitude in check kindly.
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