Rebel offensive boosts Turkey’s influence in Syria
Ankara, long a backer of opposition groups, sees chance to push back Kurdish militants and force Assad to negotiate
After opposition forces took Syria’s second-biggest city of Aleppo in a surprise offensive, photographs showed a person draping a Turkish flag over the wall of the medieval citadel. It appeared to be the act of a lone individual, but the image was picked up by pro-government Turkish media as a symbol of the sway Ankara has long wielded in its neighbour’s civil war. The 13-year conflict reignited last Friday when the rebels, led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), moved into Aleppo with little resistance. Turkish-backed factions, which are co-ordinating with HTS, then launched an assault on Sunday on the strategically important northern town of Tel Rifaat, controlled by Syrian Kurdish forces.
The dramatic rebel advance has put a renewed spotlight on Turkey’s role in the shattered Arab state, where for years it has been the main backer of rebels who rose up against President Bashar al-Assad in 2011. Unlike other Syrian rebel factions, HTS is not directly backed by Turkey. But analysts say the offensive is unlikely to have taken place without the tacit acquiescence of Ankara, and could strengthen President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s influence in any future negotiations with Assad and his allies, Russia and Iran. “Without Turkey’s green light, this operation would never be possible,” said Gönül Tol, a director at the Middle East Institute in Washington and author of a book on Turkey’s role in the Syrian war. “Turkey saw an opportunity to change the dynamics on the ground, weaken Assad’s hand and demonstrate to the next US administration it can curb Iranian influence effectively,” she said.
Neither Erdoğan nor other officials have confirmed Turkish involvement, with foreign minister Hakan Fidan on Monday telling reporters that “it would be wrong to explain away the events in Syria as a foreign intervention”.
But the offensive has provided Turkey with an opportunity to mobilise allied factions to push back against Kurdish forces it considers an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), a separatist group that has been fighting the Turkish state for decades. Preventing the Kurdish militants from massing on Turkey’s border has been the prime motivation for Erdoğan’s decision to intervene in Syria in recent years. Before the rebel offensive, Ankara had expressed deep frustration with Assad’s refusal to negotiate with the Syrian opposition. Damascus rebuffed rare overtures from Erdoğan this year to mend ties that had been severed after Turkey sided with the rebels in 2011. Turkey is ultimately the protector of Idlib, the north-western Syrian province that is HTS’s stronghold. It has also deployed thousands of Turkish troops and armed and trained rebel factions, known collectively as the Syrian National Army, in parts of north-west and northern Syria that are under Turkish control. While it labels HTS as a terrorist group, Turkey plays a vital role ensuring the survival of the rebels’ enclave. HTS and the SNA, which have previously clashed with each other, have co-ordinated for the latest offensive, analysts say.
But the offensive has provided Turkey with an opportunity to mobilise allied factions to push back against Kurdish forces it considers an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), a separatist group that has been fighting the Turkish state for decades. Preventing the Kurdish militants from massing on Turkey’s border has been the prime motivation for Erdoğan’s decision to intervene in Syria in recent years. Before the rebel offensive, Ankara had expressed deep frustration with Assad’s refusal to negotiate with the Syrian opposition. Damascus rebuffed rare overtures from Erdoğan this year to mend ties that had been severed after Turkey sided with the rebels in 2011. Turkey is ultimately the protector of Idlib, the north-western Syrian province that is HTS’s stronghold. It has also deployed thousands of Turkish troops and armed and trained rebel factions, known collectively as the Syrian National Army, in parts of north-west and northern Syria that are under Turkish control. While it labels HTS as a terrorist group, Turkey plays a vital role ensuring the survival of the rebels’ enclave. HTS and the SNA, which have previously clashed with each other, have co-ordinated for the latest offensive, analysts say.