Syrian Civil War and The future of Syria after liberation

[ghazi52]

The Middle East is reeling because ideas taken as a given – like pervasive Iranian strength, and Russian solidity as an ally – are crumbling as they meet new realities. Assad prevailed as the leader of a blood-drenched minority, not through guile or grit, but because Iran murdered for him and Moscow bombed for him. Now these two allies are wildly over-stretched elsewhere, the imbalance that kept Assad and his ruling Alawite minority at the helm is also gone.

When established regional powers seem suddenly unable to act, there is often a moment of significant risk. But this is one seized by Turkey, a NATO member which has dealt with the most fallout from Syria’s turmoil.



Related articleSyrian rebels appear to have entered Damascus as Assad regime’s defenses crumble
Ankara has had to play the long game over Syria, and housed over three million of its refugees since 2012. It has had to see the Kurdish militants – the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that the US trained, equipped and helped to fight ISIS – develop a stronghold along its border. From Ankara’s perspective, the Syria problem has never gone away even though attention to it faded; it would one day need to alter the enduring mess in its favor.

The sweeping offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS) – with its impetus, equipment and inclusive communications strategy, telling Syria’s disparate and panicked ethnic groups their new society would view them all as one – spoke of a sophisticated hand behind it. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made his strongest suggestion to date whose hand that was when he said Friday he had tried to negotiate the future of Syria with Assad, failed, and he wished the offensive well, all the way to the Syrian capital. It was not a subtle message. But it does not need to be at a time of seismic change Erdogan has likely long awaited.

Exactly who Turkey has empowered remains unclear. HTS’s upper echelons, in short, began as al-Qaeda, found ISIS too extreme, and are now trying to suggest they’ve grown up. From Ireland to Afghanistan, the history of this sort of evolution is messy. It’s not always simple for extremists to reform, yet also possible sometimes they can change just about enough. Separately, while Turkey may have lit the touch paper of HTS assaults, the speed of Assad’s collapse may not have been anticipated. There is such a thing as too great a success.

 

[ghazi52]

The unknowable impact of vast, fast change left Syria mired in half-policies and US inaction before. Back in 2013, then-US President Barack Obama said he would retaliate militarily if Assad used chemical weapons, but did not enforce this “red line” when Assad deployed Sarin in Ghouta in 2013. His officials partially justified his walkback by suggesting too much further damage to the already frail Assad regime could let increasingly jihadist rebels to advance so fast, they could be in control of Damascus in months. It is possible they were right back then; it is yet more likely the failure by Obama to act emboldened Russia and Iran for years.

We don’t know a lot about what is happening now in Syria or what it means. HTS may prove a better governor of Syria’s ethnic mix than Assad was, which won’t be hard. Assad may melt away into exile in a lavish row of Moscow dachas, and his hollow autocracy may crumble fast. Russia may lick its geopolitical wounds and concentrate on the catastrophic bleed that is its invasion of Ukraine. Iran may pause to reflect, and instead ready itself for the possible tsunami of aggression that could come with Trump’s White House.

 

[clutch]

This is why supporting the Palestinian cause is a fool’s errands. These people will not only but ingrates and devoid of appreciation for all you sacrifice but will literally make up fake realities to blame you for the situation and accuse you of collaborating with Israel when they advance all of Israel’s interests.

Never save a snake because they will only bite you eventually, because they are a snake.

Cool. Now go join the Jewish Zionist state and STFU.

 

[ghazi52]

Israeli military issues urgent warning to residents of southern Syria​

From CNN’s Nechirvan Mando and Catherine Nicholls

The Israeli military’s Arabic spokesperson has issued an “urgent warning” to residents in southern Syria on Sunday.

In a post on X, Avichay Adraee issued warnings for five areas. This comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the country’s military to seize the buffer zone on Israel’s border with Syria Sunday.

Addressing Syrian citizens, Adraee said that “fighting in your area is forcing the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) to take action, and we do not intend to harm you.”

“For your safety, please remain in your homes and do not go outside until further notice,” he said.

 

[Arabia]

Who is stopping you from becoming nuclear and returning the favor? Pakistan despite limited resources and extreme pressure became a nuclear power. You Arabs have a bloc. Pakistan is just one lone country. These are all old excuses from the Arab world. The truth is that almost every Zionist GCC Arab country is hand and glove with Israel. We are not buying it anymore.

Where have you been in the past 50 years? Libya tried building a nuclear program but was bombed by USA and the West. Similarly with Iraq. You see, Arabs are NEXT DOOR to Europe and the Westerners. We have RULED large parts of Europe for CENTURIES. They still have fear of Arabs in their mind. Same with Turks. You are located (luckily) for you far away in a good geographic position protected by the Himalayas in the North, India to the east (a sea of 1.5 billion people) and deserts/mountains of Afghanistan (landlocked country too) and Iran to the West.

Meanwhile the Arab world is the literal center of the world, every global power, in particular the West, wants to control and meddle in it. The less said about the significance of Jerusalem for 4.5 billion Abrahamic believers the better.

Not only that, there is no single Arab this and that as you imagine. The Rashidun, Umayyad, Abbasid, Famitid caliphates and empires are long gone. There is not 1 single Arab state. If there was, there would not be the problems we see today. That is the problem.

Instead there are 20 + different states spanning a geography the size of Russia (almost) from the Atlantic Ocean in the West to the Arabian Sea in the East. Each with their own policies, rivalries etc. Some competent, some less, some incompetent and many in between.

Also talking about the GCC as one bloc is moronic and ignorant. Only Bahrain and UAE signed a normalization deal with Israel.

As for nuclear bombs, I believe that KSA has nuclear bombs (delivery systems courtesy of the Chinese have already been the case for 35 + years) and the past 10 + years of missile bases in the mountains and deserts of KSA, uranium extraction (KSA has up to 10% of the uranium reserves of the world), the Pakistani connection (KSA basically bankrolled the Pakistani nuclear program) and the ability of the House of Saud to do anything to stay in power, leads me to believe that KSA already possesses nuclear weapons.

But it does not matter, nuclear weapon are useless in this case, nobody is going to use them and if we do, we are going to commit suicide. Goes for both parties.

 

[ghazi52]

Iraq says it won’t accept foreign meddling in Syria’s affairs​

From CNN’s Nechirvan Mando and Catherine Nicholls

Iraq has urged “non-interference in Syria’s internal affairs” and said it wouldn’t accept foreign meddling in the country.

Baghdad “reaffirms the necessity of respecting the free will of all Syrians and emphasizes that Syria’s security, territorial integrity, and its independence are of utmost importance — not only for Iraq but also for the stability and security of the entire region,” government spokesperson Bassem Al-Awadi said Sunday.

The Iraqi government supports efforts to initiate an “inclusive dialogue encompassing all factions and orientations in the Syrian arena, in accordance with the interests of the Syrian people,” he continued, including the establishment of a constitution that safeguards the rights of Syrians and “supports Syria’s rich cultural, ethnic, and religious diversity.”

But if outside sources try to meddle in Syrian affairs, this will “only deepen the conflict and divisions in Syria,” Al-Awadi warned.

 

[ghazi52]

Taliban foreign ministry congratulates Syrian rebels and calls for the establishment of Islamic government​

From CNN's Ehsan Popalzai and Lauren Kent

Fighters celebrate in Damascus' Omeyyad mosque on December 8, 2024, after Islamist-led rebels declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive.
Rami Al Sayed/AFP/Getty Images

The Taliban’s foreign ministry on Sunday congratulated the Syrian people and rebel forces, in particular Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, which led the sweeping rebel offensive, in the wake of the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Afghanistan “congratulates the leadership of the movement and the people of Syria on the recent developments, which have resulted in the removal of key factors contributing to conflict and instability,” the Taliban foreign ministry said in a statement.

“We express hope that the process of power transition be carried out in a manner aligned with the aspirations of the Syrian people, paving path for the establishment of an independent and service-oriented Islamic government, which prioritizes national reconciliation, avoids divisions and retribution, and adopts a policy of general amnesty to foster unity among all Syrians,” it said.

 

[KingQamaR]

Looks like nobody wants to fight for Assad. but my fellow Pakistanis on here do very disappointing.

 

[Dalit]

Where have you been in the past 50 years? Libya tried building a nuclear program but was bombed by USA and the West. Similarly with Iraq. You see, Arabs are NEXT DOOR to Europe and the Westerners. We have RULED large parts of Europe for CENTURIES. They still have fear of Arabs in their mind. Same with Turks. You are located (luckily) for you far away in a good geographic position protected by the Himalayas in the North, India to the east (a sea of 1.5 billion people) and deserts/mountains of Afghanistan (landlocked country too) and Iran to the West.

Meanwhile the Arab world is the literal center of the world, every global power, in particular the West, wants to control and meddle in it. The less said about the significance of Jerusalem for 4.5 billion Abrahamic believers the better.

Not only that, there is no single Arab this and that as you imagine. The Rashidun, Umayyad, Abbasid, Famitid caliphates and empires are long gone. There is not 1 single Arab state. If there was, there would not be the problems we see today. That is the problem.

Instead there are 20 + different states spanning a geography the size of Russia (almost) from the Atlantic Ocean in the West to the Arabian Sea in the East. Each with their own policies, rivalries etc. Some competent, some less, some incompetent and many in between.

Also talking about the GCC as one bloc is moronic and ignorant. Only Bahrain and UAE signed a normalization deal with Israel.

As for nuclear bombs, I believe that KSA has nuclear bombs (delivery systems courtesy of the Chinese have already been the case for 35 + years) and the past 10 + years of missile bases in the mountains and deserts of KSA, uranium extraction (KSA has up to 10% of the uranium reserves of the world), the Pakistani connection (KSA basically bankrolled the Pakistani nuclear program) and the ability of the House of Saud to do anything to stay in power, leads me to believe that KSA already possesses nuclear weapons.

But it does not matter, nuclear weapon are useless in this case, nobody is going to use them and if we do, we are going to commit suicide. Goes for both parties.

Libyan leader Gaddafi chickened out and became a traitor. Pakistan tried to help Libya become a nuclear power, and that is a well-documented fact.

The CIA threatened and tried all tricks in its book to disrupt Pakistan's nuclear capability. Do you think Pakistan had an easy ride? Pakistan had sworn that it would become a nuclear power if India became one. We kept our promise despite enormous challenges.

The Arabs know what needs to be done. Stop importing and screwing foreign hookers. Stop becoming fancy glasshouses. If the Arabs claim they are the center of Islamic civilization, they should start acting like it.

We have seen the true face of spineless Arab leaders whilst the Palestinians got massacred.

 

[Arabia]

His main line of argument is the following.

It is a Palestinian-Israeli conflict, not an Arab-Israeli conflict. When you will understand it?

Don’t interfere. Israel is powerful. Most Jews are Arabs. All the powerful countries support Israel. Etc. These are all the talking points of someone like Netanyahu.

Shameless, absurd and baseless trolling,

My talking points are based on historical facts.

Namely the following. I will try to make it easy for you.

1) Throughout 99% of all recorded history it was the Arabs that ruled modern-day Israel and Jews. In fact even protected them and welcomed them back during the reign of Caliph Umar (RA) when prior the Romans had expelled them.

2) 2/3 of all Israeli Jews are Arab Jews. That's a demographical fact. Their parents or grandparents were Arab Jewish migrants from Yemen, KSA, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Morocco, Algeria, Libya etc. when they were mostly expelled or left of their own after the conflicts began to take pace after the establishment of Israel.

3) Unlike most keyboard warriors here I don't live in an alternative reality and while I dislike Zionists heavily and their treatment of Palestinians I know that 1) not all Israeli Jews support the current policies, 2) most importantly, Israel is not going anywhere as long as they are nuclear-armed and 100% fully backed by the USA and West politically, economically, militarily etc. I think the last 76 years has proven my point.

4) Taking this into account, your blabbering of "when will Arabs kill all Jews and liberate Israel" is trolling.

5) Yes, the Palestine-Israel conflict is not an Arab-Israeli conflict any longer in the year 2024. It is not a conflict that any outsiders can solve other than Palestinians and Israelis themselves. They are the ones fighting for land, not other Arabs or Muslims. Once again, those are facts on the ground not opinions.

6) Since there is not 1 single Arab state, talking about "Arabs as 1 entity" (which has been a point of mine throughout) is simply moronic and trolling.

7) My own wishes and opinions are all irrelevant. As I wrote already I am a proponent of political Arab unification in some form. Either turning the Arab League (which predates both NATO and EU) into something alike NATO or EU or uniting the Arab world into 3-4 huge federal states based on the already existing and historical regions of the Arab world. In such a new reality, we could be talking about real joint actions and politics.

8) So far you have not disproven my correct claims of Israel enjoying monumental military, political, economic support of the most powerful political bloc in the world (West) and not only that enjoying close/cordial ties with Russia and China too.

So make up your mind, what is your standpoint and what are your views or solutions other than stupid one-liners and false accusations?

Can you counter any of my arguments? At least try.

 

[clutch]

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[SteppeWolff]

Let them pretend that everything is fine.

I have one advice for Pakistan and Pakistanis. Don't rely on anyone including Arabs. Pakistan must learn to stand on its own feet despite all challenges and problems.

Agreed. Whatever we'll do for these ungrateful rabble ( cause that they are in a nutshell ); theyll always hold contempt and racism against us.

Iran shouldn't have invested Billions and lost thousands for them.

 

[Arabia]

Agreed. Whatever we'll do for these ungrateful rabble ( cause that they are in a nutshell ); theyll always hold contempt and racism against us.

Iran shouldn't have invested Billions and lost thousands for them.

I am sure that this is not the same case from your likes, just the other way around. Your posts clearly show your great love for your Arab Muslim brothers and sisters.

Iran did not invest shit in Arabs. They helped destroy the Arab areas where they were supporting their terrorist proxies (Northern Yemen, Southern Lebanon, parts of Iraq and Syria until today), took advantage of the moronic pro-Iran Shia Arabs (luckily there are very few left nowadays), stole the resources and used the slogans of Palestine and Islam to bolster their imperialistic ambitions in the Arab world. "Too bad" that their project failed spectacularly.

Ask the average Syrian, Iraqi, Yemeni and Lebanese what they think about the Iranian regime. Not long ago you had 1000's of freaking pro-Hezbollah members (some even Hezbollah members) cursing Iran and their betrayal of them on Twitter and elsewhere. But since you cannot count to 10 in Arabic you are completely clueless and still living in you pro-Iranian Mullah regime bubble.

 

[shamir]

What's the future of Hezbollah? What is the status of the weapon supply route from Iran to Hezbollah going to be?

 

[RAJPUT]

This is a undocumented fairytale. At most there might have been 1-2 VOLUNTEER Pakistani pilots involved while 99.99% of them were Arabs. Not really something to brag about either as those Arab regime armies were mostly useless outside of 1973 (Egypt).

So will I prefer to focus on the 2000´s of years where pre-Islamic and Islamic Arab kingdoms, empires, caliphates etc. ruled Jews (you tried to use Zionist ill treatment of defenseless Palestinians as something to bash Arabs with - even though they have nothing to do with it and even though you and everybody else knows that Israel would be nothing in front of combined Arab forces if not for the British Empire/now USA that helps it militarily, economically, politically 24/7 to such an extent that Jews basically rule the US) you prefer to focus on failures such as past Arab regimes and today (now also past) the Al-Assad regime. Not surprised, as it makes sense.

Give it a few weeks/months, and assess the situation, Syrians just removed their dictator less than 24 hours ago and you expect them to fight Israel already when not all of Syria has been liberated?

Nobody other than Arabs have helped Muslims across the world more financially and in terms of spreading Islamic teachings.

Arabs helped Bosnia as well and more Arab volunteers fought than Pakistanis. In any conflict in the Islamic world, Arabs were always the biggest group of foreigners. From Chechnya to Afghanistan to Bosnia. A fact. Albeit not all of those involved were good people.

The 1979 Grand Mosque Seizure was the job of the SANG and French special forces. Pakistan played no role.

You are the one with an attitude and trolling, I just showed you the mirror and you had no reply other than trolling.

Arabia had nothing going for it until our beloved Prophet and his companions took the world under their heel.
Do not lecture us about helping muslims around the globe. You could not keep Israel in check despite being multitudes in man power. We the Pakistanis sent one way missions to aid your ungrateful ars*s from the zion rail train and despite being far from mainland, we obliterated the Israeli airforce in air to air combat. You can reject it all you want but it just is the truth. We have the costumes of a few of those pilots that were shot down by our jets. We helped the Bosnians by supplying weapons and financial aid. The Bosnians unlike you guys are very grateful to us, and we would do the same for them again, if the need arises. We helped the Kashmiris with weapons, man power, financial aid and unwavering moral support. We stood by the Afghan mujahideen to eventually cause the down fall of the Soviet Union. We kept the US of A at bay while they were being rabid dogs in Afghanistan. What have you done except infighting? The only good thing that is praiseworthy about the Arabian Peninsula in history is that our prophet PBUH Muhammad SAW was sent there and our Kibla is there. Just due to that reason we would still die fighting for the respect of Makkah and Madina and other than that, we reflect the same respect that you send to us. Your nation is probably the most racist pieces of scum I have seen with the exception of a few good people.
Nevertheless, if the need of protecting Makkah and Medina arises, you would see millions of Pakistani ready to die to save it from the gaze of the enemy. You do not understand our love for Prophet Muhammad and his religion. You guys have almost abandoned it. May Allah give you guys Hidayat.