The Economic History of the Last 2,000 Years in 1 Little Graph

[ST1976]

The Economic History of the Last 2,000 Years in 1 Little Graph​

That headline is a big promise. But here it is: The economic history of the world going back to Year 1 showing the major powers' share of world GDP, from a research letter written by Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy at JP Morgan.

https://cdn.theatlantic.com/media/mt/business/Screen Shot 2012-06-20 at 9.37.55 AM.png



In Year 1, India and China were home to one-third and one-quarter of the world's population, respectively. It's hardly surprising, then, that they also commanded one-third and one-quarter of the world's economy, respectively.

Before the Industrial Revolution, there wasn't really any such thing as lasting income growth from productivity. In the thousands of years before the Industrial Revolution, civilization was stuck in the Malthusian Trap. If lots of people died, incomes tended to go up, as fewer workers benefited from a stable supply of crops. If lots of people were born, however, incomes would fall, which often led to more deaths. That explains the "trap," and it also explains why populations so closely approximated GDP around the world.

https://www.theatlantic.com/busines...he-last-2-000-years-in-1-little-graph/258676/

 

[ST1976]

here is a class on how Indian economy fell during British presence in India.
Indian economy fell from 17% of World GDP to 2% during British presence in India
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=>

David Malone: India & Britain​

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=> this class discuss the graph as below

https://www.theatlantic.com/busines...he-last-2-000-years-in-1-little-graph/258676/

 

[ST1976]

More 2,000 years in a single graphic​

Did JP Morgan's striking chart on 2,000 years of economic history bungle the x-axis? Why yes, it did.​

AAAGGGGHHHH! How could Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan do it? Did he really produce a stunning chart of global economic history—but compress the time-series on the x-axis in horrid, improper ways?

Why yes, he really did.

Wipe away the tears from your eyes if you're an economist, or the frothy-mouthed rage from your face if you're an infographic designer. As the chart below shows, the first increment of time is 1,000 years. The next, same-sized increment is compressed into 500 years. This is followed by increments of some 100 years, 80, 30, 20, even one of 13 years and 27 years. It ends with a few decades and an eight-year increment.



If hauled before the infographics court of law, Mr Cembalest would surely be sentenced to many years of studying Edward Tufte's works on the dos and don'ts of visualising quantitative information. There are few strict rules of infographics. But Mr Cembalest somehow smashed into one of the biggest and most obvious of them.
How does Mr Cembalest plea? In a quick email exchange, he writes:

Graphic detail sentences him guilty as charged. We are dismayed on two counts.

First, the information contained in the chart is extraordinary and deserves to be presented in its full flavour. As the compressed time series from his report on June 18th highlights, at the start of the common era, Asia represented around three-fourths of global output (measured in gross domestic product). Its dominance lasted until as recently as 1860, when the industrial revolution in the Europe and America pumped up those economies. At their zenith around 1950, they accounted for four-fifths of output and have since been on relative decline.

In other words, the current hand-wringing over the ascent of Asia needs to be seen in historical context: as the restoration of Asian economic supremacy after a small blip. As Derek Thompson at The Atlantic rightly simplifies it in a blog post, "everything to the left of 1800 is an approximation of population distribution around the world and everything to the right of 1800 is a demonstration of productivity divergences around the world."

Second, we lament our ruling because we are huge fans of Mr Cembalest's work, especially his delightful chart last year to explain the Eurozone crisis by way of Lego figurines (available here, from Wired).

As for giving credit where it is due, the figures underlying the chart come from the late Angus Maddison, who pioneered the retrospective quantification of economic measurement (as described in our tribute to him). Many people are familiar with the data as the basis of the famous TEDTalk by Hans Rosling of the Karolinska Institute in Sweden, who presented the information as an animated infographic using Gapminder software.

The Economist has developed its own infographics of 2,000 years of economic history with Mr Maddison's data. One in 2010, nicknamed "GDP since Jesus" charts just that (below, with commentary here). We encountered the same layout difficulties as Mr Cembalest, so chose a bar chart to distinguish specific years, and fiddled with the spacing of increments on the x-axis to designate missing chunks of time. The result is imperfect, but we did as much as possible to disclose, not camouflage, the imperfections. (In retrospect, we should have done more on the right-hand side of the chart, such as perhaps making the bar widths proportionately thinner….)


A second chart from last year (below, and with a commentary here) is both simple and startling. Among the points it presents is that in the first decade of the 21st century, the population of the world produced more economic output than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined.

More 2,000 years in a single graphic

Did JP Morgan's striking chart on 2,000 years of economic history bungle the x-axis? Why yes, it did.

www.economist.com

 

[ST1976]

i was discussing, what you people think, since when South Asia had cheaper labors than USA? the graph as below shows that at least till 1870, South Asia might be having expansive labor than US, i think
India looks dominant since Ashoka time till upto 1000. while upto 1820, US looks like lower grade country than others. since 1870, i guess they have expansive labors

More 2,000 years in a single graphic

Did JP Morgan's striking chart on 2,000 years of economic history bungle the x-axis? Why yes, it did.

www.economist.com

 

[Sainthood 2.0]

sometimes I wish we had data on specific regions too - like which part of china, which part of India or france, gemany, italy weren't a single country for a good chunk of human history, Russia was much smaller back than

that'd be complicated for economist/historians to figure out
but cool at the same

 

[ST1976]

I was referring the quote about British Empired 'enslaved' these Fijians etc, and took those slaves to Australian continent and to North America.
now, when we find Indian Labors were 'cheaper' than British Labors, since when???? since 1820, when Maratha empire fallen?.......

first how much British labors were worth for labor cost upto 1820? till the fall of Maratha empire which helped them having first hand hold over empire. as below.
means, until Western Labors were 'cheaper' than Indians, how they brought these slaves? at least upto 1890+, Western Labors were 'cheaper' than Indian subcontinent one.

look, you Westerners were so poor upto 1820, and things were nearly richer people in India upto 1890+ etc. and Industrial revolution during WW1 and WW2, ...
we find, British labors were cheaper than Indian Onces during British's most of time of presence in India, upto 1890+....

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=> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maratha_Empire#History

Maratha Empire​

During the final and Third Anglo-Maratha war (1817-19), the British achieved widespread success in their military endeavours. They successfully removed the Peshwa from power,

Government	Absolute monarchy (1674–1731) Federal oligarchy with a restricted monarchial figurehead (1731–1818)

Ultimately, the Third Anglo-Maratha War (1817–1818) resulted in the loss of Maratha independence. It left the British in control of most of the Indian subcontinent. The Peshwa was exiled to Bithoor (Marat, near Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh) as a pensioner of the British.

Maratha Empire - Wikipedia​

en.wikipedia.org

 

[ST1976]

The economy of the Mughal Empire was large and prosperous.[1] India producing about 28% of the world's industrial output up until the 18th century.[2][3] Mughal India's economy has been described as a form of proto-industrialization, like that of 18th-century Western Europe prior to the Industrial Revolution.[4]

Economy of the Mughal Empire - Wikipedia​

en.wikipedia.org

 

[ST1976]

with Mughal, Sikh empire was also worth noticing, who also surrendered to British Empire by 1849
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=>
The Sikh Empire was a regional power based in the Punjab region of South Asia.[8] It existed from 1799, when Maharaja Ranjit Singh captured Lahore, to 1849, when it was defeated and conquered by the British East India Company in the Second Anglo-Sikh War. It was forged on the foundations of the Khalsa from a collection of autonomous misls.[1][9] At its peak in the 19th century, the empire extended from Gilgit and Tibet in the north to the deserts of Sindh in the south and from the Khyber Pass in the west to the Sutlej in the east as far as Oudh.[10][11] It was divided into four provinces: Lahore, which became the Sikh capital; Multan; Peshawar; and Kashmir from 1799 to 1849. Religiously diverse, with an estimated population of 4.5 million in 1831 (making it the 19th most populous country at the time),[12] it was the last major region of the Indian subcontinent to be annexed by the British Empire. Some of the notable Commander-in-Chief of the Sikh Empire were Misr Diwan Chand, Hari Singh Nalwa and Diwan Mokham Chand.

Sikh Empire - Wikipedia​

en.wikipedia.org


=> Sikh Empire, the map of India at 1839:

 

[ST1976]

sometimes I wish we had data on specific regions too - like which part of china, which part of India or france, gemany, italy weren't a single country for a good chunk of human history, Russia was much smaller back than

that'd be complicated for economist/historians to figure out
but cool at the same

this thread is an effort to put History of South Asia, and confirm that South Asian Labors were expansive than Western one at least till 1820, the graph below.
then we find by 1870 also, we were nearly levelling Western Labor cost. and i would say, at least till the 1913, we maintained our dignity.

More 2,000 years in a single graphic

Did JP Morgan's striking chart on 2,000 years of economic history bungle the x-axis? Why yes, it did.

www.economist.com

 

[ST1976]

World's top 3 economies over the course of 2000 years

https://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/2isgvk

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=> List of countries by GDP (PPP) by 2023

List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[ST1976]

here we have this chart upto year 2017

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/2000-years-economic-history-one-chart/#google_vignette

 

[ST1976]

Interesting Facts about India

India never invaded any country in her last 100000 years of history.

When many cultures were only nomadic forest dwellers over 5000 years ago, Indians established Harappan culture in Sindhu Valley (Indus Valley Civilization)

The name 'India' is derived from the River Indus, the valleys around which were the home of the early settlers. The Aryan worshippers referred to the river Indus as the Sindhu.

The Persian invaders converted it into Hindu. The name 'Hindustan' combines Sindhu and Hindu and thus refers to the land of the Hindus.

Chess was invented in India.

Algebra, Trigonometry and Calculus are studies, which originated in India.

The 'Place Value System' and the 'Decimal System' were developed in India in 100 B.C.

The World's First Granite Temple is the Brihadeswara Temple at Tanjavur, Tamil Nadu. The shikhara of the temple is made from a single 80-tonne piece of granite. This magnificent temple was built in just five years, (between 1004 AD and 1009 AD) during the reign of Rajaraja Chola.

India is the largest democracy in the world, the 7th largest Country in the world, and one of the most ancient civilizations.

The game of Snakes & Ladders was created by the 13th century poet saint Gyandev. It was originally called 'Mokshapat'. The ladders in the game represented virtues and the snakes indicated vices. The game was played with cowrie shells and dices. In time, the game underwent several modifications, but its meaning remained the same, i.e. good deeds take people to heaven and evil to a cycle of re-births.

The world's highest cricket ground is in Chail, Himachal Pradesh. Built in 1893 after leveling a hilltop, this cricket pitch is 2444 meters above sea level.

The world's first university was established in Takshila in 700 BC. More than 10,500 students from all over the world studied more than 60 subjects. The University of Nalanda built in the 4th century was one of the greatest achievements of ancient India in the field of education.

Ayurveda is the earliest school of medicine known to mankind. The Father of Medicine, Charaka, consolidated Ayurveda 2500 years ago.

India was one of the richest countries till the time of British rule in the early 17th Century. Christopher Columbus, attracted by India's wealth, had come looking for a sea route to India when he discovered America by mistake.

The Art of Navigation & Navigating was born in the river Sindh over 6000 years ago. The very word Navigation is derived from the Sanskrit word 'NAVGATIH'. The word navy is also derived from the Sanskrit word 'Nou'.

Bhaskaracharya rightly calculated the time taken by the earth to orbit the Sun hundreds of years before the astronomer Smart. According to his calculation, the time taken by the Earth to orbit the Sun was 365.258756484 days.

The value of "pi" was first calculated by the Indian Mathematician Budhayana, and he explained the concept of what is known as the Pythagorean Theorem. He discovered this in the 6th century, long before the European mathematicians.

Algebra, Trigonometry and Calculus also originated in India.Quadratic Equations were used by Sridharacharya in the 11th century. The largest numbers the Greeks and the Romans used were 106 whereas Hindus used numbers as big as 10*53 (i.e. 10 to the power of 53) with specific names as early as 5000 B.C.during the Vedic period.Even today, the largest used number is Terra: 10*12(10 to the power of 12).

Until 1896, India was the only source of diamonds in the world
(Source: Gemological Institute of America).

The Baily Bridge is the highest bridge in the world. It is located in the Ladakh valley between the Dras and Suru rivers in the Himalayan mountains. It was built by the Indian Army in August 1982.

Sushruta is regarded as the Father of Surgery. Over2600 years ago Sushrata & his team conducted complicated surgeries like cataract, artificial limbs, cesareans, fractures, urinary stones, plastic surgery and brain surgeries.

Usage of anaesthesia was well known in ancient Indian medicine. Detailed knowledge of anatomy, embryology, digestion, metabolism,physiology, etiology, genetics and immunity is also found in many ancient Indian texts.

India exports software to 90 countries.

The four religions born in India - Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, and Sikhism, are followed by 25% of the world's population.

Jainism and Buddhism were founded in India in 600 B.C. and 500 B.C. respectively.

Islam is India's and the world's second largest religion.

There are 300,000 active mosques in India, more than in any other country, including the Muslim world.

The oldest European church and synagogue in India are in the city of Cochin. They were built in 1503 and 1568 respectively.

Jews and Christians have lived continuously in India since 200 B.C. and 52 A.D. respectively

The largest religious building in the world is Angkor Wat, a Hindu Temple in Cambodia built at the end of the 11th century.

The Vishnu Temple in the city of Tirupathi built in the 10th century, is the world's largest religious pilgrimage destination. Larger than either Rome or Mecca, an average of 30,000 visitors donate $6 million (US) to the temple everyday.

Sikhism originated in the Holy city of Amritsar in Punjab. Famous for housing the Golden Temple, the city was founded in 1577.
Varanasi, also known as Benaras, was called "the Ancient City" when Lord Buddha visited it in 500 B.C., and is the oldest, continuously inhabited city in the world today.

India provides safety for more than 300,000 refugees originally from Sri Lanka, Tibet, Bhutan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh, who escaped to flee religious and political persecution.

His Holiness, the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhists, runs his government in exile from Dharmashala in northern India.

Martial Arts were first created in India, and later spread to Asia by Buddhist missionaries.

Yoga has its origins in India and has existed for over 5,000 years.

Interesting Facts about India - My India, My Pride - Know India: National Portal of India

 

[ST1976]

GDP on PPP by 18th century

GDP of India: $90,750mil

GDP of China: $82,800mil

GDP of Western Europe: $81,213mil

USA: $527

(here, the prices are based at the year 1800.)

List of regions by past GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia​

en.wikipedia.org

 

[ST1976]

here we have this chart upto year 2017

View attachment 210

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/2000-years-economic-history-one-chart/#google_vignette

India’s ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWI) with net worth over $30 million is estimated to rise by 58.4% in the next five years to 19,119 individuals in 2027 from 12,069 in 2022. India’s billionaire population is expected to move up to 195 individuals in 2027 from 161 individuals in 2022, showed a Knight Frank India report.

India’s ultra wealthy population to grow by 58.4% in next five years, Knight Frank​

The Knight Frank India report estimates that the number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) in India will rise by 58.4% in the next five years to 19,119 individuals in 2027 from 12,069 in 2022. The Indian high-net-worth-individual (HNI) population, with asset value of $1 million and...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[ST1976]

=> Jul 09, 2023

The middle class is the fastest-growing major segment of the Indian population in both percentage and absolute terms, rising at 6.3 percent per year between 1995 and 2021. It now represents 31 percent of the population and is expected to be 38 percent by 2031 and 60 percent in 2047. More than one billion Indians will make up the middle-class when India will turn 100. These are the figures from PRICE ICE 3600 surveys based on primary data.

How the middle class will play the hero in India's rise as world power​

Imagine desi companies easily growing into global biggies supported by vast domestic scale. Growing disposable incomes, along with the rise of the middle class, will make India a consumption powerhouse.

economictimes.indiatimes.com
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