The upcoming US elections and their effects on the world

[The SC]

Countries around the world and many international organizations, institutions, and economic companies are awaiting the results of the upcoming American elections, and view them as if they are a national entitlement or an event related to the future of any major organization, institution, or company. In fact, this is a natural and logical thing, as it is based on everyone’s awareness of the size and extent of the influence imposed by the behavior and style of the new American president, and how to list priorities, classify interests, and make important decisions at the international security and economic levels.

The debate between the two American presidents, former Donald Trump and current Joe Biden, which was hosted by CNN, confirmed that the latter’s chances for the next presidency are weak, and that there is a radical change coming in American foreign policy towards several global issues, and the results of these elections will intersect with the results of The Iranian elections may result in the success of the reformists through their candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, who, if he comes, will ease tensions with the West, and it is then possible to reach a new version of the Iranian nuclear agreement, with arrangements in the Middle East region to ease tensions there.

American foreign policies, in general, have proven to be long-term planned policies, and their principles (the goals and ends required to be achieved) do not stop or change when a new president and a new administration come to the White House, but the strategic method and method of implementation may be changed, which also includes changing priorities. Strategic planning must take into account achieving balance and proportionality between three basic considerations, which are firstly the ends or goals, meaning what must be achieved, secondly the means and resources, which are the available material and moral capabilities and capabilities, meaning all elements of national power, and thirdly and finally, the ways and methods in using... These are means to achieve the desired final goals. Usually, when they fail or stumble, the methods and methods are changed to methods that are more appropriate to the new circumstances and more effective in confronting the risks and threats present. Therefore, changing the approach, which appears through some variables in foreign policy, does not mean changing the ends and goals to be achieved. Therefore, bringing Trump to the White House may be aimed at changing the style, reneging on some commitments, and getting involved in other issues that have become more important and have taken precedence over their predecessors. Everyone knows that influencing American public opinion, and thus influencing the success of one candidate at the expense of another, is up to him. Pressure groups that control the media, influence the opinions of members of Congress, and manage political propaganda for multiple goals, most notably achieving financial profits and gaining more influence and influence in decision-making capitals and in decision-making capitals. Here it is worth noting the presence of a large number of pressure groups and “lobbies” Lobbies,” most notably the Jewish lobby, which is the most influential and effective in American decision-making, but there is also an “Arab lobby,” an “Iranian lobby,” and even a “Chinese lobby,” all of which work toward achieving the interests and goals of the party to which they belong.

The most prominent issues that will be radically affected if Donald Trump ascends to the presidency of the United States of America is the Ukrainian issue and providing support for this country to defend itself in the face of the Russian attack. It is likely that American military and political support will decline significantly, and Europe will then be left to decide. Regarding its continuation of this support, it is likely that it will withdraw little by little from it, and will work in cooperation with the new American administration to find a logical and acceptable settlement for this war. The Russian-Ukrainian war has reached a difficult and dangerous stage, and is on the verge of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, and this is not the case. Nobody wants it, because the expected cost of any confrontation of this kind will be much higher than the gains that the United States can achieve. The current results are considered satisfactory and acceptable to the United States. American arms companies have greatly benefited from selling weapons to European countries, and have secured hundreds of billions of dollars in arms contracts for more than ten years in the future. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the United States has been able to increase Its global arms exports increased by 17% between 2019 and 2023 compared to the previous five years, and the United States’ share in the international arms trade increased significantly from 34 to 42%. At the global level, the lion's share went to European countries that doubled their imports of American weapons in this period. By forcing Europe to support Ukraine and confront Russia, the United States was able to distance European countries economically from Russia, despite the loss of these countries in many areas, most notably securing energy resources. These countries became more security and economically attached to the United States of America, and their dependency on it increased. And its dependence on it, which ensures that it will not be able to establish itself as a military and economic force competing with the United States in the future, and this is an important point, as the European economy competes with the American economy in global markets, especially in the field of selling weapons, transport aircraft, cars, and many industrial and agricultural equipment. As for the euro, it is the only currency competing with the US dollar, as it ranks second in circulation after the dollar in global trade.

If Trump succeeds in the upcoming elections, he will return to the policy of confronting China commercially, as a businessman well-versed in economic and trade issues, and he will review the trade balance with it, and impose new conditions on it. As for the military field and the Taiwan issue, he will be more lenient and open than the Biden administration, despite Although there is not much to be changed in the relationship with Taiwan.

As for the issue of the Middle East, this region is an area of first-class American influence and interest, and it cannot abandon it or allow its influence there to decline. Despite the multiplicity of its opponents there and the ambiguity of the relationship with them, it is trying somewhere to reach temporary settlements. Preventing or postponing any military confrontation with them, and as for Gaza and the war between Israel and Hamas, the issue is settled and will not wait for the American elections. The Netanyahu government, contrary to what is said, was able to achieve some of its goals, the most prominent of which is the destruction of Gaza and the Palestinians there into a cycle of destruction, misery and poverty for at least ten years. This government also realizes that eliminating an organization with a resistant ideological ideology, such as Hamas, is a complex and almost impossible issue. What is currently happening is an attempt to create a reality that will make Hamas’ popular environment rise up against its leaders and withdraw its allegiance to it, and the liberation of the hostages comes in the last place in the process. The goals of the Netanyahu government, which is that with its departure, as is usual and as planned, all the crimes and violations it committed will be erased and forgotten, and a new government will come to repair the chaos caused by Netanyahu. There is also an important point that must be acknowledged, which is that maintaining the Palestinian dispute Internal affairs are a strategic interest for Israel that outweighs its declaration of any alleged victory over Hamas. Therefore, most likely, it will not and cannot eliminate Hamas’ political ideology and military doctrine, and will be satisfied with it remaining weak, as it is betting on new internal Palestinian confrontations and disputes on the “next day” after the end of the war. This gives it an opportunity to escape from any obligations towards the Palestinians and from the idea of a two-state solution, and we must not forget that Israel’s interest is to fuel, exacerbate and maintain the contradictions in its Middle Eastern surroundings.

As for the northern front, Israel wants a new agreement that changes reality and is more secure for it. This is difficult to achieve through diplomacy. Rather, it requires major work and a “military campaign” to impose a new field reality, after which negotiation will take place through a political process in which the United States participates. The United States of America, and what matters to the latter here, is that the anticipated confrontation, which is almost inevitable and will take place in about a few weeks (at least after the issuance of the Iranian election results and after the completion of the Rafah operation), remains within a disciplined context, and that it does not get out of control and lead to a comprehensive war, and in In this case, the confrontation will consist of an intense exchange of remote fire strikes, targeting command centers, officials, sensitive sites, and important installations. It will cause a lot of destruction, and perhaps with a ground invasion that may be limited or deep. Israel is preparing to enter this round with its full military and technological capabilities. Anyone who thinks is wrong. The issue is a psychological war, as Israel is defeated morally and politically, and needs major action to regain its prestige in the region and rebuild its army’s collapsed reputation. Despite the exhaustion and losses that the Israeli army has suffered, the possibilities of waging war on Lebanon remain great, and the main dilemma facing it is Israel in this war, in how to “neutralize” a huge number of Hezbollah missile launchers in the first strike, which will be sudden and similar to what happened in 1967, and Israel is likely to rely on its full air and missile capabilities (Global Fire Power website classified Israel It is ranked 17th in the global power ranking for the year 2024, with 612 warplanes of various missions. Despite this, Israel knows that Hezbollah’s military capabilities are very large and advanced, and it adopts surprising and unexpected methods, so it is preparing for the worst, and what reassures it somewhat is, It is the large American military presence and Western reinforcements in the region. It is worth mentioning here that the two parties know that this war will not eliminate the other, but rather it is a new and imposed bloody war, in which each party will display its strength, but with the exit from it with the least possible losses, and after that the important thing is not who declares its victory, but rather the nature and terms of the agreement that will be concluded. It will be reached, as usual, under international auspices.

The issue of protecting supply chains and global trade in the Red Sea remains an important issue that concerns not only Israel and the United States, but most countries of the world, and at the present time there is no solution to prevent the Houthis from targeting Israeli and Western interests in this sea through their qualitative military capabilities, and at the present time there is no solution to prevent the Houthis from targeting Israeli and Western interests in this sea through their qualitative military capabilities. The US administration believes that this targeting will stop after the end of the military operations in Gaza. The possibility of escalation remains possible if Israel launches a war on Lebanon. In this case, the “Guardian of Prosperity” coalition may become a useless force, which requires the establishment of a new mechanism to solve this dilemma. .

Almost everything that happens in the world is in some way linked to the behavior of the United States of America and its foreign policy. This country possesses many tools of hegemony and tools to influence global events, and at the same time it presents attractive and innovative models of self-criticism of foreign policies, and acknowledges the mistakes committed in them. This happens with successive administrations in the White House, and we give an example of what happened in Iraq, where it was acknowledged that the failure to empower the new authority and to establish a loyal or neutral regime that does not pose a threat to the interests of the United States, and the same applies to Afghanistan, when the American army suddenly withdrew and “Shameful,” according to American officials, as the Taliban assumed power there, and this is what will likely happen in the Ukrainian issue, after all tools and means of managing and influencing the conflict have been exhausted. The problem is that the repercussions of these massive mistakes are being passed on to other parties and countries, where the costs are Very expensive and the repercussions are irreparable.

 

[Menthol]

This presidential election seems to have no effect to the world.

But the truth, this election is one of the most important.

USA international power and influence are not as used to be.

Whatever there will be world war 3 or not, will be decided by who will become the next president of USA.

USA is desperately need an economic reset, as well as to destroy China and Russia.

 

[EugeneP]

If Trump (whom I detest) becomes the President, he is going to be basically a disinterested man in foreign policy. His goal is mainly domestic, immigration and trade being top. I would like a lighter footprint in the world and not be as involved in everything. Thus, though I dislike the man, I like his potential foreign policy.

 

[Yommie]

The US is not the power it once was in the 1980s. The election has little effect on the world. Today China dominates the world in terms of manufacturing.