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Taiwans terrain is very hilly/mountainous and HIMARs will be very difficult to target due to its mobility. You vastly underestimate how hard it will be for China to conduct an amphibious assault onto Taiwan, and maintain its supply lines.
With US involvement, CSIS estimates China will lose 90% of its amphibious transport and landing ships within the first two weeks of the war.
There is nothing “easy” about assaulting Taiwan.
USA is not going to directly get involved. USA will not fight China for Taiwan. That is the start of a war between China, USA and all of USA bases in east Asia.
USA will try to supply weapons for a little while until China establishes a blockade, after that it will be game over for Taiwan. Taiwan is a small island very close to China, it will be easy to establish an aerial and land blockade of Taiwan, after that, China can literally starve them out, wear them down and their infrastructure and once Taiwan is ripe for the picking, they will move in then.
Taiwan is in MLRS range of China, that how the disadvantage that Taiwan cannot get over, nor the power of China's drone fleet which will decimate everything on the surface of Taiwan ...
Ah, US Think Tank in confirmation bias shocker
The US not fighting for Taiwan is your hopium talking. In reality, the US, Japan, Australia etc will all come to Taiwan’s defense.
Taiwan has been a de facto independent state for almost 80 years now. China is all talk at this point. The Iranians and its proxies were humiliated, the Russians were humiliated, and China is next up on the list for its own humiliation.
Per the CSIS war games you really think any US admin will want 2 sunk carriers, 000's dead marines, south east Asian bases destroyed, hundreds planes destroyed, scores surface ships destroyed?The US not fighting for Taiwan is your hopium talking. In reality, the US, Japan, Australia etc will all come to Taiwan’s defense.
Taiwan has been a de facto independent state for almost 80 years now. China is all talk at this point. The Iranians and its proxies were humiliated, the Russians were humiliated, and China is next up on the list for its own humiliation.
This CSIS war game had one big flaw it assumed PLAN had limited to no ASW capabilities, most of those PLAN losses are by subs.
This argument falls down on so so many levels.
The US is pulling back globally. Ukraine is infinantly more important then Taiwan and if they can get thrown under the bus anyone can.
Chinese weapons did the talking on May, taking on cutting edge French and Russian equipment, so you can talk as much as you want, the real pros are doing the fighting.
US will not even give Taiwan F-35s. That shows you the level of US committment
Per the CSIS war games you really think any US admin will want 2 sunk carriers, 000's dead marines, south east Asian bases destroyed, hundreds planes destroyed, scores surface ships destroyed?
Thats politically suicide.
So no Taiwan will be alone that is the reality.
This CSIS war game had one big flaw it assumed PLAN had limited to no ASW capabilities, most of those PLAN losses are by subs.
This CSIS war game had one big flaw it assumed PLAN had limited to no ASW capabilities, most of those PLAN losses are by subs.
See this is the issue you come up with nonsense claims. Where's this 20 years ahead evidence.US undersea domain capabilities are 20 years ahead of the Chinese.
Again, you don’t what you’re talking about. The US is expanding its force posture in East Asia, and Taiwan is strategically more important for the US than Ukraine has ever been.
The US continues to push systems like Typhon, LRHW, and NEMESIS into Japan, Phillipines, and Australia. Guam is being turned into the most advanced/dense air defense network on the planet.
India-Pakistan fighting means nothing relative to US capabilities.