Turkish Foreign Policy and Regional Geopolitics

[Sultan Baybars]

Israel Is Not Looking for Conflict with Türkiye in Syria, Senior Israeli Official Says​

A helmet lies among the debris scattered at the site of an Israeli strike on a military airbase near Hama, Syria, Thursday, April 3, 2025. (AP)

Israel does not seek conflict with Türkiye in Syria, a senior Israeli official said on Friday, following days of rising tensions between the two countries and Israeli strikes on military sites in Syria.

"We're not looking for a conflict with Türkiye and we hope that Türkiye isn't looking for a conflict with us," the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told reporters.

"But we also do not want to see Turkish entrenchment on our border and there are all kinds of ways to handle this," the official said.

Israel Is Not Looking for Conflict with Türkiye in Syria, Senior Israeli Official Says

Israel does not seek conflict with Türkiye in Syria, a senior Israeli official said on Friday, following days of rising tensions between the two countries and Israeli strikes on military sites in Syria. "We're not looking for a conflict with Türkiye and we hope that Türkiye isn't looking for a...

english.aawsat.com

Damn right they don't want a conflict, neither their masters in Washington D.C.

Israel don't have the balls nor the capacity for a conflict with Turkey, they are not stupid.

 

[hyperman]

Turkish policy in Syria must account for 3 elements in addition to the Israelis.

Namely

the PKK,

US

and Russia.

There is no need to rush, what Turkey is trying to do in Syria will likely take months if not years to come to fruition. It includes the dissolving of the PKK, and the withdrawing of the US and potentially Russia.

Right now there is no need to make a rash and aggressive move. The current posture is a watch and wait mode. There are many things in motion in the region outside of anything related to Turkey, how those things play out will have an effect on the region overall, there is no reason to run into anything, when the climate is fluid.

Right now Turkey is playing it well with the support for the govt in Damascus as well as building capacity and building the base in Menagh. At the same time its are waiting to see how the PKK matter unfolds. Its not rushing to a direct military confrontation.

 

[Foinikas]

There is a strategy at play here, Turkey will do what it feels the need to do, thank you for your input.

Why are you getting annoyed? It's a simple logical question. They don't let you build a base,you should send F-16s to patrol. All I keep hearing is "Turkey has a strategy,Turkey has a strategy".

Turkey has been showing-off muscle to everyone else but Israel

 

[Foinikas]

Israel don't have the balls nor the capacity for a conflict with Turkey, they are not stupid.

Historically they have shown to take attack possible serious threats without being afraid. Iraq,Iran,Egypt,they could go far and wide to hit any serious threats. So far they seem more eager to hit Turks,than Turks to kick them out of Syria and establish bases.

 

[hyperman]

Why are you getting annoyed? It's a simple logical question. They don't let you build a base,you should send F-16s to patrol. All I keep hearing is "Turkey has a strategy,Turkey has a strategy".

Turkey has been showing-off muscle to everyone else but Israel

It does have a strategy, why does it need to do what you want it to do Foinikas, I'm sure you would love for an immediate Hot conflict between Turkey and Israel. And I'm telling you there are half a dozen things happening in the middle east right now, and the Turkey Israeli beef doesn't even make the top 3 right now.

There is a standoff with a deadline for mid May between the US and Iran.

There is that report that Israel plans of attacking Iran halfway thought this year.

There is the Red Sea drama with the Houthis.

Gaza

Sudan, which Turkey is involved in indirectly.

Insurgency in Somalia that Turkey is involved in with Troops on the ground.

Somaliland Drama being pushed by the UAE/Israel against Turkey's strategic partner Somalia.

The PKK matter

All this needs to be managed and Assessed from the Turkish perspective, and none of that includes Libya(although the Libyan front is current quiet right now)

And thats just the middle east, Turkey also need to be prepared on the Black Sea front regarding Russia/Ukraine drama. As well as South Caucasus drama with Azerbaijan and Armenia and both the Ukraine and Karabakh matter involve Russia.

What Turkey is doing is slow playing this, first by indirect involvement via sending weapons training and Armored vehicles, as well as building a base at the Menagh Airport inside Syria(this is the first Airbase base, there will be more as part of a island chain hopping strategy). This is all happening while the Domestic Defense industry buildup happens, with the building of capacity.

What Turkey does not want to do is prematurely overcommit to a direct confrontation with the Israelis on one front and be caught out of position on other fronts. Similarly there are openings that will come forward with the possible clashes between the various other parties in the region.

 

[Oublious]

Israel Is Not Looking for Conflict with Türkiye in Syria, Senior Israeli Official Says​

A helmet lies among the debris scattered at the site of an Israeli strike on a military airbase near Hama, Syria, Thursday, April 3, 2025. (AP)

Israel does not seek conflict with Türkiye in Syria, a senior Israeli official said on Friday, following days of rising tensions between the two countries and Israeli strikes on military sites in Syria.

"We're not looking for a conflict with Türkiye and we hope that Türkiye isn't looking for a conflict with us," the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told reporters.

"But we also do not want to see Turkish entrenchment on our border and there are all kinds of ways to handle this," the official said.

Israel Is Not Looking for Conflict with Türkiye in Syria, Senior Israeli Official Says

Israel does not seek conflict with Türkiye in Syria, a senior Israeli official said on Friday, following days of rising tensions between the two countries and Israeli strikes on military sites in Syria. "We're not looking for a conflict with Türkiye and we hope that Türkiye isn't looking for a...

english.aawsat.com

Damn right they don't want a conflict, neither their masters in Washington D.C.

Israel don't have the balls nor the capacity for a conflict with Turkey, they are not stupid.

Ther are rational zionists among them, we will open airbase sooner or later.

 

[Foinikas]

It does have a strategy, why does it need to do what you want it to do Foinikas, I'm sure you would love for an immediate Hot conflict between Turkey and Israel. And I'm telling you there are half a dozen things happening in the middle east right now, and the Turkey Israeli beef doesn't even make the top 3 right now.

There is a standoff with a deadline for mid May between the US and Iran.

There is that report that Israel plans of attacking Iran halfway thought this year.

There is the Red Sea drama with the Houthis.

Gaza

Sudan, which Turkey is involved in indirectly.

Insurgency in Somalia that Turkey is involved in with Troops on the ground.

Somaliland Drama being pushed by the UAE/Israel against Turkey's strategic partner Somalia.

The PKK matter

All this needs to be managed and Assessed from the Turkish perspective, and none of that includes Libya(although the Libyan front is current quiet right now)

And thats just the middle east, Turkey also need to be prepared on the Black Sea front regarding Russia/Ukraine drama. As well as South Caucasus drama with Azerbaijan and Armenia and both the Ukraine and Karabakh matter involve Russia.

What Turkey is doing is slow playing this, first by indirect involvement via sending weapons training and Armored vehicles, as well as building a base at the Menagh Airport inside Syria(this is the first Airbase base, there will be more as part of a island chain hopping strategy). This is all happening while the Domestic Defense industry buildup happens, with the building of capacity.

What Turkey does not want to do is prematurely overcommit to a direct confrontation with the Israelis on one front and be caught out of position on other fronts. Similarly there are openings that will come forward with the possible clashes between the various other parties in the region.

Ok,sir. If Turkey has a strategy,Turkey has a strategy.

 

[hyperman]

Ok,sir. If Turkey has a strategy,Turkey has a strategy.

You think they are randomly doing things with no greater strategy?

 

[Foinikas]

You think they are randomly doing things with no greater strategy?

I'm saying they're too chicken to dare Israel.

 

[hyperman]

I'm saying they're too chicken to dare Israel.

b/c they aren't sending soldiers to Daraa and warplanes?

I gave you the reasoning as to why there isn't an immediate move.

Turkey also hasn't launched operations into Syria against the PKK yet, does that mean they are scared of a confrontation with the PKK.

This is a slow play one that will likely take months if not years. First they start with an airbase in Menagh as the transfer of weapons continues, later it expands. If they were "too chicken" why is there an airbase in Menagh? Why haven't the Israelis bombed it?

There may be something big happening possibly in the region very soon potentially(not involving Turkey or even Syria), there is no reason to overcommit to one front prematurely, better to wait and see how things play out.

 

[Foinikas]

b/c they aren't sending soldiers to Daraa and warplanes?

I gave you the reasoning as to why there isn't an immediate move.

Turkey also hasn't launched operations into Syria against the PKK yet, does that mean they are scared of a confrontation with the PKK.

This is a slow play one that will likely take months if not years. First they start with an airbase in Menagh as the transfer of weapons continues, later it expands. If they were "too chicken" why is there an airbase in Menagh? Why haven't the Israelis bombed it?

There may be something big happening possibly in the region very soon potentially(not involving Turkey or even Syria), there is no reason to overcommit to one front prematurely, better to wait and see how things play out.

Example...

Greek officials fly to islands of eastern Aegean,Turks send F-16s to show-off right next to the Greek aircraft. Cyprus sends ships to search for gas and oil,Turkey sends frigates to intimidate. Assad Syria does something,Turkey sends pairs of Phantoms flying around. Armos say something,Turks fly F-16s to Azeris.

Israel bombs Syria again and again,making it clear they won't allow Turkish airbases established,Turkey does nothing and we got people going like "sssh...they have a strategy...sshh they know what they're doing".

 

[hyperman]

Example...

Greek officials fly to islands of eastern Aegean,Turks send F-16s to show-off right next to the Greek aircraft. Cyprus sends ships to search for gas and oil,Turkey sends frigates to intimidate. Assad Syria does something,Turkey sends pairs of Phantoms flying around. Armos say something,Turks fly F-16s to Azeris.

Israel bombs Syria again and again,making it clear they won't allow Turkish airbases established,Turkey does nothing and we got people going like "sssh...they have a strategy...sshh they know what they're doing".

Apples and Oranges.

Turkey has a demarcation dispute with both Greece and South Cyprus, so ships sailing through water that Turkey considers international water or part of its EEZ are very different from the matter in Syria.

Turkey sending F-16s to Azerbaijan was to ward off any Russian involvement.

Turkey shot down a Russian Jet, you think Turkey is scared of Israel or something? lol

Why are you so eager Foinikas, I'm sure you would love for Turkey to commit to a Hot War with israel immedetly for Greece's own strategic interests and have Turkish resources diverted from other fronts, but Turkey won't make your wishes come true, Turkey has a strategy in mind and is diligently carrying it out. It does not owe you anything. Turkey has had dialogue with Syria and has so far provided everything they have asked for. I explained the strategy to you, but you don't want to acknowledge it. Its a long term play, something that may take years to implement.

Iran had 15 years, Turkey should be afforded more than a few months. And btw all those bombings of Iranian assets in Syria still didn't stop Iran from entrenching. You see the Iranian strategy in Yemen, its minimal effort yet over time its paid significant dividend.

I explained to you in the last comment that there is more for Turkey than just Israel that it has to account for in Syria. Turkey is waiting for the PKK to dissolve as well as for the US to leave Syria. Its slow playing this, any significant play against Israel may jeopardize those efforts. Not to mention, I've already mentioned the Iran US standoff, how that goes will likely reverberate throughout the region, Why would Turkey prematurely jump into Syria with a hot war and a confrontation with Israel before that. For all we know there may be opening that come from the other possible confrontation. Right now, the smart more is to no overcommit and be bogged down.

Do you know how much Opportunity Cost Russia took, b/c it bogged itself down in Ukraine, It suffered on other fronts, in Syria, in Karabakh, even in Africa. The smart move is to wait, especially when you sense a confrontation coming between other parties in the region, b/c if their conflict is strenuous, they may not be able to respond to moves you make while they are busy elsewhere. Timing is crucial both in warfare and diplomacy. You think Assad could have been overthrown as swiftly if Russia wasn't bogged in Ukraine and Iran/Hezbollah wasn't exhausted from the year long confrontation? Or Karabakh without the US being bogged down with the Election season and internal chaos and Russia with Ukraine?

 

[hyperman]

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[Ali_Baba]

That T4 airbase can rebuild againg, i mean they destroyed old equipments and some buildings. In the end airbases will come.

Unless Turkey is prepared to put soliders, and active air defences on the airground at bases it wants to use, and IADS systems it is prepared to actively use(fire) against Israel, before it attempts a renovation(which it was attempting to do, which Israel destroyed, and there is a question mark on if Turkish citizens died in those attacks or not"), or a "rebuild" from previous Israel attacks, then it is pointless to talk about this ... as Israel will simply destory anything that Turkey does. Right now, Israel acts freely in Syria to do what it wants, and that tells you all you need to know about where the actual balance of power lies.

 

[hyperman]

The various places around the world where Turkish Troops are currently deployed.