U.S. and Philippines seek to de-escalate after sea skirmish with China

[Beijingwalker]

U.S. and Philippines seek to de-escalate after sea skirmish with China
Chinese coast guard vessels have become more aggressive in blocking access to the contested Second Thomas Shoal. Despite upcoming joint maritime exercises, Manila and Washington are trying to dial down tensions.

By Rebecca Tan and Ellen Nakashima
June 25, 2024 at 1:11 p.m. EDT

Chinese coast guard personnel in a confrontation with Philippine sailors near the Second Thomas Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea on June 17. (Armed Forces of the Philippines/Getty Images)

SINGAPORE — The United States and the Philippines are seeking to de-escalate tensions with Beijing after Chinese coast guard ships forcibly boarded Philippine navy vessels in the most serious confrontation in the South China Sea in recent years, according to U.S. and Philippine officials.

The United States will hold a joint maritime exercise with the Philippines in the coming weeks as a “show of support” to a key U.S. ally, officials said. The exercise was preplanned and is not intended to escalate tensions with China, said a U.S. Indo-Pacific Command representative who, along with several other U.S. and Philippine government officials, spoke on the condition of anonymity to share details of sensitive diplomacy.

The exercise will occur in disputed waters that Manila claims as the West Philippine Sea, and could also involve other U.S. allies, such as Australia or Japan, say U.S. officials.

Though Philippine leaders have condemned China’s behavior as “aggressive” and “illegal,” they have also sought in recent days to lower the heat over the disputed waters. “We are not in the business to instigate wars,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Sunday after visiting troops on the western island of Palawan who were wounded in the skirmish against China.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said Monday that the Philippines is being “very cautious at this juncture” about the situation at sea. “They do not seek a crisis with China. They are seeking dialogue,” Campbell said at an event hosted by the Council of Foreign Relations in Washington. As for the United States, “the most important thing in this time frame is to be resolute, to be very clear publicly in our support for the Philippines,” he said.

China has recently grown more aggressive in asserting its presence over the South China Sea, parts of which are claimed by six other governments.

Tensions surged last week when Chinese coast guard ships rammed and boarded Philippine navy vessels attempting to resupply the Sierra Madre, a rusted warship beached on a half-submerged reef known as the Second Thomas Shoal. The confrontation left a sailor severely injured and sparked calls for a response from the United States, which has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines.

Since the incident, U.S. officials at “the highest levels” have been debating an appropriate response said one official in Asia, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. “Something needs to be done,” said the official, who works on security issues. “Do we want to commit to something that could spiral out of control? That’s very much a factor at play.”

Visiting nearby Vietnam over the weekend, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink called China’s actions at Second Thomas Shoal “deeply destabilizing.”

The “level of anxiety” on this issue among countries in this region “is very high,” said a second U.S. official. “So the Chinese have miscalculated here.”
Campbell said U.S. officials have lodged diplomatic protests on the incident to the Chinese government.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning asserted at a news conference Monday that Second Thomas Shoal is Chinese territory. “Our message to the Philippines is very clear: Stop the infringement activities and provocations,” she said.

Separate from the joint exercise with the United States, the Philippines will attempt another resupply mission to the Sierra Madre, potentially as soon as this week, according to U.S. and Philippine officials. And U.S. officials will be watching to see how that goes.

In a change of policy, the Philippines will now be publicly announcing the resupply missions ahead of time, said the National Maritime Council, an interagency body that Marcos Jr. convened earlier this year to manage the dispute with China.

Richard Heydarian, a senior lecturer at the Asian Center of the University of the Philippines, called on the United States to “take steps to directly support” the resupply missions to the Sierra Madre and to declare that any lethal attack on Philippine military personnel would be grounds to trigger the mutual defense treaty. There’s a need to “restore some element of deterrence,” Heydarian said in an interview.

But any U.S. involvement in the resupply missions to the Sierra Madre would have to come at the request of the Philippines, U.S. and Filipino officials said. While the United States has provided “technical and logistical” support on previous resupply missions, Manila has deliberately not asked for the United States to join in executing these missions, said a top Philippine defense official. That’s still the policy after the recent incident at Second Thomas, said the Philippine official.

U.S. officials affirmed this. “That whole operation is meant to be a demonstration of Philippine sovereignty,” said the Indo-Pacific Command representative. “Giving that up to the U.S. is not something they want.”

 

[Beijingwalker]

Violence involving Chinese coast guard and Philippine boats​

 

[Beijingwalker]

It's a game about who blinks first, US always will.

 

[ety]

Lol, don't trust these two foxes and wolves.

 

[Nan Yang]

Filipinos doubt US reliability as Marcos deescalates​

Both Manila and Washington press for diplomatic approach despite China’s apparent lack of appetite for compromise

By RICHARD JAVAD HEYDARIAN JUNE 25, 2024

Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr, left, walks alongside Admiral John C Aquilino, commander, US Indo-Pacific Command, during an honors ceremony at USINDOPACOM headquarters, Camp H M Smith, in Honolulu, November 19, 2023. Photo: US Navy Communication Specialist 1st Class John Bellino

The near-fatal showdown between Chinese and Philippine maritime forces in the South China Sea last week raised fears of unwanted escalation in the disputed waters.

A Filipino serviceman suffered physical injury after a large contingent of Chinese forces collided with and then forcibly boarded and disarmed personnel aboard a Philippine resupply mission en route to the hotly-contested Second Thomas Shoal

Had Filipino naval troops resisted China’s latest aggressive action, the situation certainly would have turned far more violent and potentially fatal, reminiscent of hand-to-hand combat between Chinese and Indian troops at the disputed borders in the Himalayas.

Washington, which has a Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the Philippines, was quick to condemn the latest incident. In a statement, the US State Department condemned what it called “escalatory and irresponsible” actions by Chinese forces and, crucially, reiterated its defense obligations to the Philippines in an event of armed attack on Philippine troops and public vessels in the South China Sea.

Philippine authorities publicly lashed out at China’s “coercive, aggressive and barbaric actions” – but were quick to de-escalate tensions by maintaining that the latest incident did not constitute an “armed attack” but instead was the product of a possible “misunderstanding or accident.”

“Well, you know this was probably a misunderstanding or an accident. We’re not yet ready to classify this as an armed attack,” said Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin in a press conference hastily-organized last Friday. Bersamin, who leads the National Maritime Council (NMC), which coordinate interagency responses to crises in the South China Sea, was quick to shut down any speculation over the possible invocation of the MDT.

The Filipino official also extended an olive branch to Beijing by reiterating its commitment to a diplomatic resolution of the dispute. “I think this is a matter that can easily be resolved very soon by us,” Bersamin said. “And if China wants to work with us, we can work with China.” The Philippine government’s muted response met with criticism and outrage across the country.

Leading Philippine experts have argued that China’s latest action could have been a basis for invocation of the MDT. Surveys have found that up to 93 percent of Filipinos want their government to protect Philippine-claimed territories and wrest back control of those occupied by China.

Many in the Philippines began to doubt the determination of the Marcos administration to stand up to China, as well as to question America’s reliability as an ally.

In a speech before Philippine military personnel at the southwestern province of Palawan, which lies near the disputed Spratly islands, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr sought to strike a balance by emphasizing that the Philippines has an uncompromising position as well as a commitment to diplomacy.

“We are not in the business to instigate wars — our great ambition is to provide a peaceful and prosperous life for every Filipino. This is the drum beat, this is the principle that we live by and that we march by,” said Marcos during his speech at the “Talk to the Troops.”

“We refuse to play by the rules that force us to choose sides in a great power competition. No government that truly exists in the service of the people will invite danger or harm to lives and livelihood,” he added, underscoring preference for a non-aligned and independent foreign policy. Nevertheless, the Filipino president emphasized that his government will “stand firm” in protecting the country’s sovereign rights in the South China Sea.

The exact circumstances of the latest incident remain shrouded in mystery. From the standpoint of China, aggressive intervention was a legitimate response to the Philippines’ violation of a supposed prior agreement over the Second Thomas Shoal. Since the late-1990s, Manila has exercised de facto control over the disputed feature by stationing troops over a grounded warship, BRP Sierra Madre. But given the extremely poor conditions in the de facto Philippine base, China has hoped over the past decade to peacefully eject its rival from the area.

In 2013 People’s Liberation Army General Zhang Zhaozhong argued, “Without the supply for one or two weeks, the [Filipino] troopers stationed there will leave the islands on their own. Once they have left, they will never be able to come back.”

Over the succeeding years, China not only expanded its reclamation activities in the disputed areas, birthing a whole host of massive artificial islands and military facilities, but it also began to tighten the noose around Philippine-occupied land features such as the Second Thomas Shoal.

Accordingly, China rapidly expanded the number of vessels, both warships and civilian, dispatched to the area in order to cut off Philippine resupply lines near the shoal. The Asian superpower upped the ante when it began suspecting that the Philippines had been transporting construction materials to fortify its de facto base in spite of an alleged “secret agreement” with former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte to maintain the status quo.

Latest reports suggest that the Philippines has already fortified the dilapidated BRP Sierra Madre, thus provoking outrage and aggressive countermeasures by China. Increasingly dangerous clashes between the Philippines and China, however, have raised concerns over America’s role.

Both the Trump and Biden administration have made it clear that MDT would apply only if there were an armed attack on Filipino troops and public vessels. But China’s deft reliance on “gray zone” tactics has undercut the utility of the Philippine-US alliance dramatically. Strategic planners in the Pentagon have clearly recognized this gap, which has been thoroughly exploited by China.

Last year, the Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) released an unclassified report in which its legal experts argued that the MDT should also apply to “illegal use of force [which] is not limited by law to a kinetic armed attack (e.g. the use of munitions), but could also include non-kinetic attacks that result in death, injury, damage, or destruction of persons or objects.”

So far, however, the Biden administration has demurred from expanding the parameters of the MDT and, instead, insisted on a more general rhetoric of “ironclad commitment” that clearly doesn’t cover gray zone assaults on Philippine troops. As a result, critics are beginning to question the wisdom of the Marcos administration’s decision to expand military cooperation with Western allies without securing clear-cut commitments on the festering South China Sea disputes.

So far, both the Marcos administration and the US have pressed for a diplomatic approach, despite the fact China has shown little appetite for compromise on its expansive claims across the disputed waters. Under growing domestic pressure, Manila likely will push for revision of the guidelines governing its mutual defense obligations with America.

But with the superpower facing competing priorities across the world, and the US presidential elections just over the horizon, it remains to be seen if Washington is willing to expand military commitment to its besieged Southeast Asian ally.

 

[ety]

Lol, just big mouths talk of MDT all the time by the two, think China is really scared of US in SCS eh. The Pinoys say they refuse to choose side, who are you kidding, lol ?

 

[Nan Yang]

Richard Heydarian

Philippines’ dithering over South China Sea clash fuelled by US doubts​

• Dithering official statements reflect not only Philippine fears of unwanted escalation but also, crucially, doubts over US defence commitments

Richard Heydarian
Published: 5:30am, 29 Jun 2024

Illustration: Craig Stephens

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr is busy playing down the risks of a major conflict in the South China Sea after yet another dangerous clash, this time with axe-wielding Chinese maritime forces that left injuries, including one Filipino soldier who lost his thumb.

“We are not in the business to instigate wars,” Marcos Jnr told troops at a military base in Palawan, which embraces the South China Sea. “We refuse to play by the rules that force us to choose sides in a great power competition.”

Earlier this month, Chinese maritime forces disarmed Philippine naval servicemen on a resupply vessel headed for Second Thomas Shoal. This led to calls for Manila to invoke its Mutual Defence Treaty with the United States.

Perturbed by the possibility of a major escalation, Filipino officials have struggled to maintain a consistent stance. Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jnr Defence Secretary has refuted Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin’s claim that it “was probably a misunderstanding or an accident”, maintaining: “It was an aggressive and illegal use of force.”

Marcos has sought the middle ground, insisting he will “stand firm” and not yield to “any foreign power” amid the festering maritime dispute.

The dithering and seemingly confused statements from Philippine officials, however, are a reflection of fears of unwanted escalation and, crucially, doubts over the extent of America’s commitment to come to the country’s aid.

Chinese and Philippine ships clash in first incident under Beijing’s new coast guard law

Washington and Manila are under growing pressure to upgrade their alliance to prevent more drastic scenarios, including a Chinese occupation of the Philippines’ de facto base in Second Thomas Shoal.

Weeks before the latest incident, Marcos warned that the killing of any Filipino in “a wilful act” by a foreign power in the South China Sea would be “very, very close to what we define as an act of war”, which would invoke the Mutual Defence Treaty with the US.

The problem is that Washington has a long history of equivocating on its defence obligations to the Philippines. In the early 1970s, US secretary of state Henry Kissinger pressed for a policy of strategic ambiguity by raising “substantial doubts that [a Philippine] military contingent on island in the Spratly group would come within protection” of the Mutual Defence Treaty.

The treaty “may apply in event of attack on [Philippine] forces deployed to third countries”, he clarified, although this would be “fundamentally different from [a] case where deployment is for purpose of enlarging Philippine territory”.

The 1951 treaty is itself riddled with ambiguity, since it only obliges Washington to come to its Southeast Asian ally’s help “to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes”.

US and Philippines conduct annual Balikatan drills amid rising tensions with China

In short, there was never any automaticity in the US military commitment to the Philippines in the South China Sea, hence the refusal of both the Clinton and Obama administrations to intervene on Manila’s behalf during the Mischief Reef and Scarborough Shoal crises in 1995 and 2012 respectively.

America’s unreliability has begun to alienate the Filipino people. An authoritative survey conducted in late 2016, just months after the election of Beijing-friendly president Rodrigo Duterte, showed that half of the respondents either disagreed (17 per cent) or were undecided (33 per cent) when asked if “security/defence relations with the US have been beneficial to the Philippines” in the context of the South China Sea disputes. If anything, a significant number of those surveyed backed Duterte’s pursuit of warming defence ties with China and Russia.

In response, both the Trump and Biden administrations have made clear that any armed attack on Philippine troops, public vessels and aircraft in the South China Sea would be covered by the Mutual Defence Treaty. The problem, however, is that China’s “grey zone” actions fall below the threshold of an armed attack, thus undermining the deterrence value of America’s reassurances.

In fairness, this gap has been identified by both Philippine and US officials. Last year, legal experts at the Indo-Pacific Command recommended that the Mutual Defence Treaty should also apply to the “illegal use of force” which “could also include non-kinetic attacks that result in death, injury, damage or destruction of persons or objects”.

High seas area in the South China Sea

SCMP

So far, there are no signs that the Biden administration, which is heading into an intense election and distracted by conflicts from Ukraine to Gaza, has officially revised the parameters and guidelines underpinning the Mutual Defence Treaty. Nor has America provided any state-of-the-art weapons systems to the Philippines in the past decade, even as it provides tens of billions of dollars in defence aid to Kyiv and Tel Aviv.

Meanwhile, there are fears China may resort to more drastic measures, namely seeking to occupy the Sierra Madre, a grounded vessel serving as the Philippines’ de facto military base on Second Thomas Shoal. To deter such a scenario, the US may be forced to clarify that the Mutual Defence Treaty will cover any excessive use of force that may lead to fatalities of Filipino soldiers in the South China Sea. As I understand it, based on conversations with former and current officials, troops are under instruction to use live munitions, as a last resort, to defend the besieged base.

Washington may also need to consider the transfer of defence assets such as a landing craft and high-speed boats to boost the Philippine patrol and resupply capacity. Ultimately, the two allies might consider joint patrols and resupply missions, with US warships and drones on the horizon.

For now, what’s clear is America’s credibility as both an ally and regional leader is under growing question, thanks to China’s efforts to alter the status quo based on its expansive claims in one of the world’s most important seascapes.

Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise