United States elections 2024: Donald Trump Wins
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Musings
Administrator
So who do you want in and who do you think will win?
VCheng
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
I really do not start thinking about that until I know who the actual nominees are for both sides. I think we still have time before that happens, with many potentially important events along the way. For now I have my eye on what the SC will say about Trump having immunity or not, which is soon.
Yommie
Elite Member
Trump and Haley will be on different ballots in Nevada. Here’s why
He spoke less than 24 hours before they will be arraigned.
ny1.com
Trump and Haley will be on different ballots in Nevada. Here’s why
By Joseph Konig NevadaPUBLISHED 4:45 PM ET Jan. 29, 2024
Former President Donald Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the last remaining major 2024 GOP presidential contenders, will both be competing for voters in Nevada next week -- but they will not be on the same ballot.
They won't even be competing on the same day.
What You Need To Know
- Former President Donald Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley will both be competing in Nevada next week, but the last remaining major 2024 GOP presidential contenders will not be on the same ballot
- Instead, Haley will be on the Tuesday, Feb. 6 primary ballot and Trump will be up for consideration by Republican caucusgoers two days later
- The two contests are a product of a new state law requiring primary presidential elections and the insistence of the state GOP to continue holding caucuses as they have since the 1980s
- At stake in the party-run caucuses — where Trump is likely to win overwhelmingly — are 26 delegates to the Republican National Convention. The primary will not result in RNC delegates for the victor
Instead, Haley will be on the Tuesday, Feb. 6 primary ballot and Trump, coming off of victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, will be up for consideration by Republican caucusgoers two days later. The two contests are a product of a new state law requiring primary presidential elections and the insistence of the state GOP to continue holding caucuses as they have since the 1980s.
At stake in the party-run caucuses — where Trump will only face the largely unknown Texas businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley — are 26 delegates to the Republican National Convention.
For Haley, a victory in the state-run primary over four other largely unknown, quixotic candidates would simply be a matter of bragging rights as she works to build momentum ahead of South Carolina’s primary later in February. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former Vice President Mike Pence, who have since dropped out of the race, will remain on the ballot.
Republican presidential candidate and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)
“Your primary vote doesn't mean anything. It's your caucus vote,” Trump told supporters at a Las Vegas rally over the weekend. “So in your state, you have both the primary and you have a caucus. Don't worry about the primary, just do the caucus thing.”
Democrats will also hold a primary on Feb. 6, though President Joe Biden is likely to win by a large margin. One of his more notable longshot challengers, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, opted to skip the state.
Here’s what you need to know about the Nevada primaries, caucuses and what it means for the 2024 presidential race:
When is the Nevada primary? When are the Nevada caucuses?
The Nevada primary for both parties is on Tuesday, Feb. 6. Early voting began on Jan. 27 and ends Feb. 2.Two days later, on Thursday, Feb. 8., the Nevada GOP will run caucuses from 5 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. to decide who wins the state’s 26 delegates. Only active duty military members, their dependents and Nevadans who require Americans with Disabilities Act accommodations can vote absentee in the caucuses, according to the state party.
Registered Republicans can vote in both the primary and the caucuses, local election officials told the Reno Gazette Journal. Independents and other voters not registered with either major party will not be eligible to vote in the Republican and Democratic contests.
Why are there two GOP races in Nevada?
In 2020, the results of the competitive Democratic caucuses in Nevada were delayed for days, drawing ire from candidates and calls for the state to abandon the system, which is generally seen as more complicated and labor-intensive for voters and vote counters than simply casting a primary ballot.In response to complaints about the 2020 caucuses, former Senate Majority Harry Reid — a giant of Nevada politics and a longtime advocate of the caucus system — and others pushed for the state to embrace a primary. In June 2021, then-Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak signed a law that required the state to host primaries.
Last year, the Nevada GOP sued to stop the primary from going forward, but dropped that fight earlier this month. A local judge had ruled in July 2023 that both contests would be held, but that the Nevada Republican Party could decide on their own how to allocate its 26 RNC delegates, which it has tied to the results of the caucuses.
Few are satisfied with the circumstances, with Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo expressing concern last year that the dueling elections would “disenfranchise a number of voters,” calling the situation “unacceptable.” He revealed earlier this month he will caucus for Trump and write-in “none of the above” in the primary.
What’s the difference between the primary and the caucuses?
Unlike a primary election, Nevada’s GOP caucuses are party-held meetings in precincts across the state where representatives of the candidates are allowed to make their case before a secret ballot is cast. Caucuses tend to have lower turnout than primaries because of the time-consuming nature of the process.And Nevada’s 26 Republican presidential delegates will only be awarded to the caucus winner, all but assured to be Trump. In an official party document published earlier this month, the Nevada GOP wrote the primary victor would win “nothing but brief, meaningless bragging rights.”
Who is competing in each contest?
Trump and Binkely are the only candidates competing in the caucuses. Haley is the only remaining legitimate challenge to Trump’s hold on the party competing in the primary, though Scott and Pence remain on the ballot despite dropping out.Originally, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ohio entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy were supposed to be on the caucus ballot, but they have dropped out and the state party removed them from contention.
Haley has not publicly explained why she chose the primary, but other candidates and critics have argued the Nevada GOP, lead by Trump allies, is tipping the scales in Trump’s favor with restrictive voter ID laws and a ban on super PAC spending.
A caucus may also be more beneficial to his fervent supporters who may be more willing and able to set aside two and a half-hours on a weekday night.
Trump won the 2016 Nevada Republican caucuses by 22 percentage points.
Nevada GOP chairman Michael McDonald and two other top party officials were indicted on felony charges in December for participating in a fake elector scheme to place the state in Trump’s column in the 2020 presidential election despite him losing.
Nevada GOP chair Michael McDonald, right, shakes hands with Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump at a campaign event Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)
What comes next?
The U.S. Virgin Islands will host their caucuses on Feb. 8, the same day as the Nevada caucuses. Four Republican National Convention delegates will be at stake.After that, South Carolina’s Republican primary is scheduled for Feb. 24 and will include both Trump and Haley, a former two-term governor of the state. Trump is leading her in polls of South Carolina by over 30 percentage points on average, according to the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight.
What about the Democrats?
President Joe Biden’s challengers have shown little sign of disrupting the incumbent’s path to his second presidential nomination. He won New Hampshire’s primary, an unofficial contest in the eyes of the Democratic National Committee due to a dispute over scheduling, by more than 40 percentage points, despite being a write-in candidate only.Phillips missed the deadline to get on the Nevada primary ballot and spiritual leader Marianne Williamson is polling in the single digits nationally. An Emerson College poll in early January found she had about 2.5% support among the Democratic electorate in Nevada.
The Nevada Democratic primary takes place on Feb. 6, the same day as the Republican one. South Carolina’s Democratic primary on Feb. 3 will be the first contest to feature Biden’s name on the ballot.
Yommie
Elite Member
Professor: Trump’s premature boast could undermine GOP in Nevada
Trump’s rhetoric last week could be perceived by some as a way to energize his political base, but loudly prognosticating an election ...
lasvegassun.com
Professor: Trump’s premature boast could undermine GOP in Nevada
STEVE MARCUS
Former president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives to speak at a Commit to Caucus rally at the Big League Dreams sports park Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024.
By Casey Harrison (contact)
Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024 | 2 a.m.
Former President Donald Trump took to social media last week minutes after being declared the winner of the Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire.
In an inaccurate post, Trump also claimed he had won in Nevada, the next state in the GOP’s presidential nominating calendar.
Twenty-five minutes after media outlets called the New Hampshire race for the former president, Trump posted on his Truth Social an apparent dig at the only remaining primary opponent, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. The post, in all caps, proclaimed: “SHE JUST LOST NEVADA, WHICH IS UP NEXT!” And later that night he doubled down with a post saying, “WE JUST WON IN NEVADA!”
But Nevada isn’t holding its presidential nominating contests for another two weeks. Even then, Trump and Haley won’t be facing off, because Haley is on the ballot for the Feb. 6 presidential preference primary managed by the Nevada Secretary of State, and Trump is participating in the Nevada Republican Party’s “First in the West” caucuses Feb. 8.
The state GOP’s rules, endorsed by party leaders loyal to Trump, prohibit candidates from taking part in both the primary and caucus, meaning you won’t find Trump on the GOP primary ballot or Haley in the caucuses. Early voting for the primary started Saturday.
State GOP leaders further decided that only the caucuses’ results would be used to determine Nevada’s delegates to the Republican National Convention, where the party’s presidential nominee will officially be selected.
Trump’s rhetoric last week could be perceived by some as a way to energize his political base, but loudly prognosticating an election that has yet to occur can also have a chilling effect on voters, said David Damore, a political science professor at UNLV and executive director of Brookings Mountain West.
“The whole primary/caucus is shaping up to be quite strange and quite confusing,” Damore told the Sun in an email. “My sense is the more likely outcome is low participation for both the GOP primary and caucuses, which would undermine the party-building opportunities that can be reaped by caucuses and being an early (voting) state.”
And with nine months remaining before November’s general election, Nevada’s top election official is cognizant of the possible disenchantment with the options Republican voters have before them this election cycle. At a news conference earlier this month to highlight election security measures the state is taking for the statewide elections this year, Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, a Democrat, was asked what his message is to political leaders or candidates who are pushing election misinformation.
“Run on your values,” said Aguilar, a first-term Democrat who ran on expanding voter access. “Run on what strengths you have as a candidate. You don’t need to focus on bad information or false information. Let’s really run on the values that we are as individuals, run on the values of our democracy and let’s stand tall about what strengths we bring to the table.”
But, if it were up to Trump and Republican Party leadership, the nominating process would be over before Nevadans have a chance to have their voices heard in the primary or caucuses.
On Thursday, a leaked draft memo from the Republican National Committee floated the possibility of naming Trump the “presumptive 2024 nominee” before he formally clinches the required number of delegates to earn the nomination by more traditional means.
The resolution was ultimately rescinded after Trump posted again to Truth Social he’d rather the party not go forward with the plan — opting to take a wait-and-see approach rather than jumping to the foregone conclusion that he will be the Republican nominee.
The resolution had been expected to be discussed at the RNC’s winter meeting in Las Vegas next week, even though only two states have voted and the former president had nowhere near the requisite number of delegates to secure the nomination.
“While I greatly appreciate the Republican National Committee (RNC) wanting to make me their PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE, and while they have far more votes than necessary to do it, I feel, for the sake of PARTY UNITY, that they should NOT go forward with this plan,” Trump posted.
RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel had earlier signaled her support for the resolution. On Tuesday, after Haley finished second to Trump in New Hampshire, McDaniel said that while she felt the former ambassador had “run a great campaign,” Republicans “need to unite around our eventual nominee, which is going to be Donald Trump.”
Haley’s camp said Thursday that it wasn’t up to the RNC to decide who the GOP nominee would be.
“Who cares what the RNC says? We’ll let millions of Republican voters across the country decide who should be our party’s nominee, not a bunch of Washington insiders,” said campaign spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas.
Ultimately, Trump decided that he “should do it the ‘Old Fashioned’ way, and finish the process off AT THE BALLOT BOX.”
Trump is likely correct: He eventually will be awarded all of Nevada’s 26 GOP delegates because he is running virtually unopposed in the caucuses. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign Sunday, leaving political newcomer and businessman Ryan Binkley as Trump’s only opponent in the Nevada caucuses.
Like Trump in the state GOP caucuses, Haley is running basically unopposed in the Nevada GOP primary, but a scenario exists where she would not be the top vote getter.
Nevada Republican voters can cast their primary ballot for “None of these candidates,” and, in essence, show support for Trump. Or instead of Haley, they could vote for former Vice President Mike Pence or U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, both of whom suspended their campaign after filing to be in the primary.
Trump Speaks at Commit to Caucus Rally
Gov. Joe Lombardo, a Republican, is doing just that. He said last week he’d be caucusing for Trump and voting for “None of these candidates” in the primary. Republican Lt. Gov. Stavros Anthony also announced that is how he’d be voting.
A Jan. 9 Emerson College poll found turnout is expected to be higher in the primary than in the caucuses.
“If ‘None of these candidates’ wins in the primary, former President Trump will very likely say that he won the primary election as well,” said Sondra Cosgrove, a history professor at the College of Southern Nevada.
Cosgrove agreed with Damore’s assessment that turnout might be low in both contests, especially because Nevada’s presidential preference primararies are “closed” meaning only registered Democrats can vote for Democrats and only registered Republicans can vote for Republicans. But Nevada allows voters to update existing voter registration on Election Day, meaning anyone can switch parties to vote in a specific primary. (Rules for the Nevada caucuses are different and same-day voter registration updating is not allowed.)
Polls repeatedly show most voters do not want to see a 2020 rematch between Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden, despite all signs indicating that to be the case, Cosgrove said.
“Between Nikki Haley’s efforts to turn out independents to at least show support in Nevada, to the caucus appearing to favor former President Trump, to Joe Biden being the only viable candidate on the Democratic primary ballot, many people are saying to me, ‘Why even vote?’” Cosgrove said.
Aguilar had a message for constituents balking at the prospect of a Trump-Biden rematch: Vote, in February and November.
“This year, all eyes will be on Nevada,” Aguilar said. “Voters in Nevada will determine who becomes the next president of the United States.”
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