United States elections 2024

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Joe Biden slightly trails Donald Trump in new 2024 poll, falling behind on economy, border​

George Fabe Russell
USA TODAY NETWORK





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Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 2 points in a new poll, 46% to 44%, as the 2024 race for the White House presses on.
The poll, released on Sunday from ABC News and Ipsos, also found that, among people already registered to vote, Biden has a razor-thin edge of one point, for a split of 46% to 45%. People “likely” to vote tend to favor Biden at 49% to Trump's 45%.
The poll was conducted online from April 25 to April 30 among 2,200 adults, split roughly three ways between Republicans, Democrats and independent voters. The survey has a margin of sampling error of 2%, which can become a significant factor in close races.

More:Can you trust 2024 election polls on Donald Trump and Joe Biden? Here's how to cut through the noise.

What do these results mean for Joe Biden and Donald Trump?​

Trump’s favorability, ABC says, could be fueled by voters' perception of how he might handle major issues facing the nation.
Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

Out of ten issues voters were asked about, Trump led Biden in his potential handling of the economy, inflation, crime and safety, immigration, gun violence, U.S. world standing and the Israel-Hamas war.
When voters were asked about the economy, 46% said Trump would do a better job managing it, compared to Biden's 32%. Forty-four percent said Trump would do a better job handling inflation, compared to Biden's 30%.
Biden led in two categories, health care and abortion access picking up 39% and 41%. “Protecting democracy” was evenly split Trump and Biden. .
Biden, on the other hand, saw a lead in questions about candidates' “personal favorability," notching 40% to Trump's 33%. He was also seen as more “honest and trustworthy,” according to the poll.
The poll also found that Biden held an approval rate of 35% and disapproval rate of 57%, compared to Trump's retrospective approval rate of 44% and disapproval rate of 50%.

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Asked about Trump possibly being convicted of a crime between now and the November election, his supporters seem committed to continue supporting him − 80% say they will continue supporting him while only 4% say they will not. Sixteen percent say they will reconsider their support if Trump, who is currently facing a criminal trial in New York tied to hush money payments, is ultimately convicted of a crime.

In a five-way poll factoring in the three leading third-party candidates, independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, the Biden-Trump split falls along similar lines, on a smaller scale, as the polling on a two-way way race.

Kennedy took 12%, with a slight majority of his potential supporters tending to lean Republican. West and Stein took 2% and 1%, respectively
 

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