United States elections 2024
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Alarmed Democrats flee Biden’s ailing brand in battleground states
Vulnerable Senate Democrats are distancing themselves from President Biden’s ailing brand after polls show him trailing former President Trump in several battleground states. Democrats in tough rac…
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Alarmed Democrats flee Biden’s ailing brand in battleground states
BY ALEXANDER BOLTON - 05/20/24 5:30 AM ETSHAREPOST
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Vulnerable Senate Democrats are distancing themselves from President Biden’s ailing brand after polls show him trailing former President Trump in several battleground states.
Democrats in tough races are breaking with Biden over border security, liquified natural gas exports, the Israel-Hamas war and tariffs on Chinese goods.
They’re staying competitive in the polls despite Biden’s low approval ratings and lagging position relative to Trump, but they are worried the president’s political brand will start weighing them down as Election Day nears.
“If you go out there and do a focus group, the focus groups all say, ‘He’s 200 years old. You got to be kidding me.’ And the worst part about it is for unaffiliated voters or people that haven’t made up their mind, they look at this and say: ‘You have to be kidding us. These are our choices?’ And they indict us for not taking it seriously,” said a Democratic senator who requested anonymity to discuss the alarm sparked by Biden’s weak poll numbers in battleground states.
Polls have shown that 40 percent of registered voters in battleground states were not too satisfied or not at all satisfied with the candidates in the presidential election.
The senator said Democratic colleagues “know this is a problem” but also realize it’s too late to do anything about it and that “this is the ticket we have to get behind and we have to win with this ticket.”
“We’ll see how much gravity we can defy,” the lawmaker said of senators in tough races who are polling better than Biden.
A second Democratic senator, when asked about Biden’s poll numbers, said the president’s age is a persistent concern among voters.
“Biden’s showing his age in ways weirdly more than Trump,” said the senator, who noted that Trump, 77, is only four years younger than Biden, 81.
“People keep saying, ‘Why didn’t he take a pass, he’s just so tired?’” the senator said of constituents who are baffled over Biden’s decision to run for a second term. “That is such a prevalent feeling.”
Biden sometimes appears to walk stiffly or with a shuffling gait, which Republican-aligned critics love to point out in social media posts.
The lawmaker also cited the high costs of basic goods and services as another political headwind facing Biden.
“People are shocked at the cost of a house and the cost of drugs,” said the senator, who pointed out a can of midgrade paint now costs $55 a gallon.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of 4,097 registered voters across six battleground states found Biden trailing Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania and tied with him in Wisconsin.
The same poll, however, showed Democratic Senate candidates leading their likely Republican opponents in four states — Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Rosen emphasizes her independence
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), who is narrowly leading Republican opponent Sam Brown, 40 percent to 38 percent, has sought to separate herself from Biden, who is losing to Trump by double digits in the Silver State.She broke with Biden over his decision to withhold bombs from Israel to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to call off an invasion of Rafah.
Rosen called for the White House to provide Israel with “the unconditional security assistance it needs to defend itself,” telling Jewish Insider “the administration should not do anything that undermines Israel’s ability to defeat Hamas.”
Asked about Biden’s 33 percent approval rating and other poor poll numbers in Nevada, Rosen emphasized her independence and record of working with Republicans.
“For the third year in a row, I’m in the top 10 most bipartisan senators out of all 100. I’m the top three most independent Democratic senators out of now 51, and in the top 10 most effective Democrats. So people in my state know me. They know what we’ve been doing for Nevada. We’re going to continue to let them know,” she said.
“Some of it I’ve agreed with the president, not afraid to stand up to him when it’s not right for Nevada,” she said of her work in Washington.
She downplayed Biden’s poll numbers as “just a snapshot in time.”
Casey splits on some issues
Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), who is running for reelection in Pennsylvania, where Biden is polling behind Trump 36 percent to 40 percent in the New York Times/Siena College survey, has split with Biden on liquified natural gas (LNG) exports and holding up arms to Israel.“There are numerous occasions where I don’t agree with administration policy. LNG is the most recent example as well as the decision [Biden] made about arms transfer to Israel,” he said.
“Polling across the board at this stage is of limited value,” he insisted.
Casey’s work to distance himself from Biden on key issues appears to be paying off. Polls show him currently leading hedge fund CEO and Republican candidate David McCormick 46 percent to 41 percent.
A majority of voters in Pennsylvania — 54 percent — said they trust Trump to do a better job of handling the economy, while 42 percent trust Biden more.
And more Pennsylvania voters — 47 percent — said they think Trump would better handle the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians than those who trust Biden more on that issue — 42 percent.
“I’ve got to work every day to earn every vote, and that’s true of every candidate. I think in the end the president will carry Pennsylvania, and I think I will too,” Casey said.
Montana and Ohio are tough states for Dems
Biden is a bigger political liability for the two most vulnerable Democratic incumbents running in Montana and Ohio, where Trump is ahead by big margins.An Emerson College poll of 1,000 registered voters in Montana in March showed 56 percent preferred Trump and 35 percent backed Biden. A SurveyUSA poll of 549 likely Montana voters in February showed Trump leading Biden 51 percent to 29 percent.
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who is running for reelection to a fourth term, said he’s running his own race and trusts his brand will play a lot better with Montana voters.
“Biden’s running his race, I’m running mine. I’ve got a good brand, people understand who I am, and we got to remind them who I am and what I’ve accomplished and what I intend to accomplish,” he said. “They really are separate races.”
Tester scored a major legislative victory in 2022 when he spearheaded the push to enact the PACT Act to expand health care eligibility for military veterans, over conservative Republican objections.
The new law has helped more than 4 million veterans get free screenings for toxic exposures and provided more than $1.85 billion in benefits.
“As with every president that’s come down the pipe, we’ve worked with them and we’ve opposed them. And it’s been the same thing with this one, and we do what’s best for Montana and rural America,” Tester said.
Tester has clashed with the Biden administration on several high-profile issues recently, notably the breakdown in security at the southern border.
The Montana senator vented his displeasure over the situation at the border and with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
He told Austin bluntly this month that what’s going on at the border is “not sustainable and it’s unacceptable.”
In a tense exchange last month, he told Mayorkas, “The administration needs to step up, you need to step up!”
Tester this month became the first Senate Democrat to co-sponsor the Laken Riley Act, legislation that has become a Republican rallying cry.
The bill, named after the 22-year-old nursing student whose alleged killer is a Venezuelan migrant, would require federal officials to apprehend and detain immigrants in the country illegally who commit crimes until they can be deported.
And Tester sponsored a resolution with Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) to overturn the Biden administration’s decision to lift a ban on beef imports from Paraguay. It passed the Senate 70-25.
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who faces a serious headwind because of Biden’s unpopularity in his home state, said Tuesday that Biden didn’t go far enough to protect American workers from cheap Chinese imports.
“While tariffs are needed to level the playing field for American workers, they are not enough to stop a flood of Chinese-government-subsidized products on their own. That’s why the administration must ban Chinese electric vehicles and use every possible tool to stop China’s cheating,” Brown said.
Trump is leading Biden in Ohio by an average of 10 points in recent polls.
Brown broke with Biden in May of last year when he announced he would cosponsor legislation to extend the emergency COVID-19 health policy known as Title 42, which former President Trump invoked to keep migrants from entering the country.
“We need more resources at the border,” he told reporters. “That means everything from military people at the border, police at the border, inspectors at the border, mental health professionals at the border to deal with this situation. It’s troubling.”
GOP signals confidence
Republicans say efforts by Senate Democrats to flee Biden’s brand won’t save them in November.“President Biden’s favorabilities are the lowest of any president in 70 years. It’s a big problem for the Democrats. They know it,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines (Mont.) said.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is counting on his vulnerable colleagues running ahead of Biden by running on his accomplishments while dodging his personal negatives.
“If you look at the same polls, No. 1, all of the four battleground states they tested, every one of our Democrats was ahead, and that’s because our Democrats are great candidates. Every week they are implementing the great work we did in 2022, 2021, 2023,” he said when asked about Biden trailing Trump in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, all of which are Senate battlegrounds.
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Many Young Voters Have Turned on Biden. But a Different Group Just Might Rescue Him.
There’s one cohort he should be very smart about courting.
The One Way Biden Could Maybe, Possibly, Make Up for His Youth-Vote Losses
There’s a secret weapon that could help save his campaign.
BY DAVID FARISMAY 20, 20245:40 AM
The president’s potential saviors. Photo illustration by Slate. Photos by Getty Images Plus and Amazon.
TWEETSHARECOMMENT
As the already unbearable 2024 election drifts toward its conclusion, breath by raspy breath, President Joe Biden’s standing has barely improved from two months ago. The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Biden gaining just 1.3 points on former President Donald Trump since the beginning of March, and the New York Times/Siena College team dropped another set of bleak, panic-inducing battleground state polls last Monday. One of the factors driving these wobbly numbers against Trump are significant declines in support and turnout intention for the youngest voters—the same age bracket that went for Biden by 24 or 25 points in 2020, depending on which analysis you use. But early polling also suggests that the president might have a secret weapon: a reversal of fortunes with the elderly.
Not all survey researchers publish their crosstabs—data on how different demographic subgroups intend to vote—and they don’t all publish the same age breakdowns. But those that do show some movement toward Biden from the 2020 baseline with voters 65 and older. Trump won this group by 3, 4, or 5 points in 2020, depending on which analysis you prefer. It is important to keep in mind that crosstabs, by virtue of their much smaller sample size, are “noisier” and less reliable, with a much higher margin of error than the surveys from which they are drawn.
But Adam Carlson’s December analysis for Split Ticket, which averaged crosstabs from a number of recent surveys, showed Trump leading elderly voters by just 1.3 points. Of the April polls with freely available crosstabs (some firms will also charge you for this exquisite knowledge), Quinnipiac’s April 24 survey had Biden with a 2-point advantage with registered voters over 65, and an April 22 Marist poll that gave a breakdown for voters 60 and older had Biden up 11. Yet both an April 29 CNN survey and an April 29 Harvard CAPS-Harris poll showed Trump up 4 with elderly voters, while an April 18 Yahoo News poll had Trump up … 13. And in an April 13 New York Times/Siena College poll it was Biden up 9. You can see why researchers don’t necessarily want us to draw firm conclusions from this data, but nevertheless, the average of those six polls for this age group is Biden +1.
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To help make sense of this barrage of data, FiveThirtyEight recently debuted a tool that it calls the Swing-o-Matic, which allows you to futz around with candidate support and turnout rates for a variety of demographic subgroups that pollsters believe are crucial to party coalitions. Chillingly, a mere 5-point drop in support from 18–29 year-olds, holding everything else constant from 2020 including youth turnout, is enough to torpedo Biden’s campaign. If you drop youth turnout 5 points from FiveThirtyEight’s estimate of 46 percent to 41 percent, Biden can only afford to shed 1 point of support from that group before Donald Trump once again wins the Electoral College and becomes our president and tormentor for four more long years.
The fact is, very little remains unchanged in between presidential elections, and there will inevitably be swings from Biden to Trump and vice versa among a variety of groups, some of which will surprise even people who study these things for a living. One constant in American politics for decades, though, has been that a much larger percentage of older Americans turn out to vote than their younger counterparts. That gap reached a high of more than 35 points in 2000, with more than 67 percent of the oldest eligible cohort showing up and less than a third of 18-to-24-year-olds voting. In 2020, 18-to-24-year-olds turned out at the highest rate since 1972, and still fell short of 50 percent participation.
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Given the age polarization that has shaped American politics since about 2002, with younger voters veering sharply left compared to the rest of the electorate, Democrats could basically have run the table this whole century with fairly modest turnout gains among young voters. It also means that, dollar for dollar, candidates simply have more robust political incentives to appeal to the elderly than they do to the young.
This dynamic tells us something important about 2024: According to the Swing-o-Matic, Biden can offset quite dramatic losses with young people if he makes marginal improvements among the elderly.
The tool’s 2020 baseline is set to an 11-point margin for Republicans among voters 65 and older (that’s yet another estimate that’s quite different from the 2020 results). But if we drop that margin slightly to 9 points, Biden can withstand 5-point drops in support and turnout among young voters. Take it down to a 6-point older-voter edge for the GOP, and Biden still wins with a 10-point erosion in the youth margin and a 9-point drop in young voter turnout. Cutting 5 points off of Trump’s margin with older voters would also allow Biden to ride out 5-point declines in youth and Hispanic support as well as a 10-point erosion in his margin among Black voters.
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There is, of course, some danger in taking the crosstabs from preelection polls too seriously. Polling in 2020 showed Biden making bigger gains with elderly voters than materialized on Election Day. Quinnipiac’s final preelection survey, for example, showed Biden carrying voters 65 and over by 15 points, and Fox’s last poll had Biden winning them by 10. Remember: He lost them by the single digits to Trump—a significant departure from the polls. That discrepancy explains a big part of Biden’s smaller-than-expected victory in 2020, and may have cost Democrats a series of winnable Senate seats as well, including in North Carolina and Maine.
But this isn’t a zero-sum choice. There’s also no reason that Biden can’t shore up the youth vote while also appealing to older folks. Strong-arming Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a cease-fire in Gaza wouldn’t just be the right thing to do; it could be the first step in reversing Biden’s declines among young voters—and not just the ones getting their skulls cracked by cops on university lawns.
The most recent Harvard Youth Poll, the gold-standard survey of America’s young people, showed that even respondents who aren’t in college favor a cease-fire by 30 points. And while polls show that young people don’t rank Gaza particularly high as an issue that will influence their vote, those who do may be disproportionately likely to sit out the election or switch their vote from 2020 as a consequence. Think about it this way: Biden cannot wave a magic wand and make inflation (consistently voters’ top problem across all generations) go away, but he has substantial leverage over the course of the Gaza war that he seemed reluctant to use until his administration paused some arms shipments two weeks ago. And given just how much the administration is still propping up Israel’s military, there’s a lot more where that came from.
Of course, that might risk his standing with the oldest age cohort, who tend to be the staunchest supporters of Israel. Yet when you consider a May 8 Data For Progress survey showing that 7 in 10 Americans supported the U.S. calling for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, it is actually hard to see the downside. Americans may still disproportionately support Israel in the abstract, but the monthslong toll on innocent civilians in Gaza—who are also effectively hostages of Hamas—has led even many pro-Israel voters to want an end to the carnage.
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Biden and Trump Announce Two Nights of Dread This Campaign Season
READ MOREKnowing that elderly voters might be the key to his reelection, Biden would also be wise to hit Trump extra hard on issues most important to seniors, like Social Security, Medicare, and prescription drug prices, where Democrats have what political scientists call “issue ownership.” It helps that GOP leaders can’t seem to go a single year without talking about cutting or privatizing America’s gold-standard old-age programs, and that Biden also has a genuine policy record of success on drug prices, something his opponent yapped endlessly about instead of getting anything meaningful done.
But a real breakthrough with the elderly might require departing from this well-worn partisan script. One under-the-radar issue that Democrats should have a significant advantage on that neither Biden nor really anyone else has talked much about is the coming crisis in elder care. According to a recent AARP survey, nearly 6 in 10 voters over 50 serve as a loved one’s primary caregiver, amid a rolling crisis as the oldest surviving baby boomers—once the largest generation in American history—approach their 80th birthdays.
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Biden needn’t roll out a series of wonky white papers to address the growing crisis of caring for the elderly to stake it out as a Democratic priority. “Republicans want to cut Social Security and Medicare,” he could argue, “leaving the elderly and their grown children to care for ailing loved ones alone.” But that’s not enough, he should say. “We need a comprehensive new commitment to helping older Americans live and thrive in dignity, and making sure that their families have every single resource they need to care for them without going broke.”
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The key takeaway he should hammer is that without more robust support for caregivers, more and more elderly Americans are going to end up homeless, cut off from society, or stashed in bleak, underfunded elder care facilities while their kids file for bankruptcy trying to pay for it. He could roll out a Caregivers Bill of Rights, including access to subsidized in-home care, tax breaks for caregivers, and policies designed to appeal to younger voters in the so-called sandwich generation, who are looking after young and school-age children while simultaneously assuming financial and logistical responsibility for their aging parents. And he could make a renewed push for paid family leave, emphasizing its utility not just for new parents but also for those who need time off to take care of a parent or spouse after a hip replacement or quadruple bypass.
Will a renewed focus on issues facing older Americans be enough to offset ongoing sourness about inflation as well as what increasingly look like baked-in losses among young voters? Short of someone talking Biden into dropping out and making way for a younger, more dynamic politician, it might be one of the only paths forward for Democrats—a fact that doesn’t appear completely lost on Biden’s strategists.
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Trump hired a tech firm to juice his ranking as 'most famous businessman in last century'
Ex-Donald Trump lawyer Michael Cohen on Monday elaborated on efforts to boost his one-time boss's ego by hiring a tech company to artificially inflate his fame on a CNBC poll.Speaking under oath on Monday, Cohen was asked about a tech company named Red Finch that Trump had tried to stiff when he...
www.rawstory.com
Trump hired a tech firm to juice his ranking as 'most famous businessman in last century'
Sarah K. Burris
May 20, 2024 1:02PM ET
Donald Trump appears at NBC promotional event (NBC)
Ex-Donald Trump lawyer Michael Cohen on Monday elaborated on efforts to boost his one-time boss's ego by hiring a tech company to artificially inflate his fame on a CNBC poll.
Speaking under oath on Monday, Cohen was asked about a tech company named Red Finch that Trump had tried to stiff when he wasn't satisfied with their work.
Trump is on trial for crafting false business records to conceal a hush money payment for an alleged affair. Among the funds that Cohen wanted to be reimbursed for were also the efforts by the tech company.
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ALSO READ: Trump’s Manhattan trial could determine whether rule of law survives: criminologist
According to Cohen, the company was hired because Trump was near the bottom of the list in a CNBC poll asking who the "most famous businessmen" were "in the last century."
According to those listening to Cohen inside the courtroom, Trump wanted the numbers to be higher, so Red Finch was hired to artificially inflate the numbers.
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"Through the acquisition of IP addresses, Red Finch said they create an algorithm to raise Trump in the polls," said Lawfare's Tyler McBrien. "Trump wanted to end up as number 1, but Cohen and Red Finch thought that would be too suspicious, so they settled on Top 10. Kind of like when you're cheating on a test, everyone knows to flub some to make it believable."
While Red Finch may have done the work, Trump nonetheless refused to pay them after CNBC canceled the poll all together.
"He didn't feel he got the benefit of what the funds were supposed to go to despite achieving #9 in the poll thanks to Red Finch," said McBrien, recapping the statements.
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Donald Trump may be losing some Pennsylvania seniors: Poll
In 2020, Trump was a favorite among those in Pennsylvania aged 65 and up, with CNN exit polls revealing he had claimed 53 percent of the senior vote.
www.newsweek.com
Donald Trump May Be Losing Some Pennsylvania Seniors: Poll
Published May 20, 2024 at 3:57 PM EDTUpdated May 20, 2024 at 10:31 PM EDT00:54
Donald Trump May Be Losing Some Pennsylvania Seniors: Poll
By Suzanne Blake
Reporter, Consumer & Social Trends
FOLLOW
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Former President Donald Trump could be losing his hold among senior voters in the key swing state of Pennsylvania.
In 2020, CNN exit polls revealed Trump was a favorite among voters in the Keystone State aged 65 and up, gaining 53 percent of the senior vote in the presidential election.
Newer polls reveal seniors aren't yet as supportive of the GOP frontrunner this election cycle.
A New York Times poll found that Trump holds 44 percent support among seniors in Pennsylvania if the election were held today. Roughly 41 percent of the same age group said they would back Biden in the same scenario.
An AARP voter survey showed Trump with 52 percent support among voters over the age of 50 compared to Biden's 42 percent. That number narrowed to a 48-46 lead for Trump in voters aged 65 and up, showing more tightening in the age group for the key state.
Former President Donald Trump arrives for his hush money trial at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 20, 2024, in New York City. Polls indicate Trump could be losing support among seniors in Pennsylvania. MARK PETERSON-POOL/GETTY IMAGES
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Pennsylvania is a key swing state not only for the White House race, but for control of the Senate as well. Support for Trump or Biden at the top of the ticket could play a key role in who wins the Senate election between Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey and Republican challenger David McCormick.
According to experts, voters over the age of 50 are a key demographic in the state and could swing elections one way or the other.
"With inflation and the rising costs of living squeezing all Pennsylvania households, Black voters 50+ are clearly looking for leaders with a plan. Candidates would be wise to listen to their opinions and concerns if they want to win in November," Bill Johnston-Walsh, AARP Pennsylvania State Director said, according to MyChesCo.
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Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, the first time the state went for the GOP White House candidate since 1988, but Biden took it back in 2020 by just over 1 percentage point.
Across all Pennsylvania seniors in the AARP poll, nearly four in five say a candidate's position on Social Security will be integral in deciding who they vote for on election day, with 67 percent saying prescription drug costs will also play a key role.
Those numbers rise to 84 percent and 70 percent among senior voters.
"Continued failure to focus on addressing issues and related relevant policies to specifically benefit's seniors, would be very detrimental to any potential chances for success by either candidate for the presidency in the upcoming national presidential election," William F. Hall, an adjunct professor of political science at Webster University, in St. Louis told Newsweek.
Earlier this year, the Treasury announced Social Security was set to become insolvent by 2033 when full payments would no longer be available. Medicare has a similar end date if nothing else changes, running out of funds for full payments in 2036.
Seniors often show up in large numbers at the polls, and this year will likely be no different. The AARP report found 86 percent of its 65 and up respondents were "extremely motivated" to vote.
A different survey from Quinnipiac University a few months ago found among 1,600 surveyed Pennsylvania voters, 60 percent of those aged 65 and over would be voting for Biden, while a 37 percent said the same of Trump.
"There seems to be a trend with Biden's poll rating creeping up among older voters, and this could be significant," Mark Shanahan, an associate professor in politics at the University of Surrey, previously told Newsweek. "The majority of older voters are white and conservative and have tended to favor Republican candidates since George W. Bush. But the Biden administration has targeted areas that matter to seniors, especially around health, in a way they're simply not seeing from Trump."
Newsweek reached out to both the Biden and Trump campaigns for comment.
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