United States elections 2024

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AP-NORC poll: About half of US adults approve of Trump’s conviction, but views of him remain stable​












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About half of U.S. adults approve of Donald Trump’s recent felony conviction, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The poll shows some potential vulnerabilities for Trump but also signs of resilience.
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BY STEVE PEOPLES AND LINLEY SANDERS
Updated 11:44 AM EDT, June 12, 2024
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NEW YORK (AP) — About half of U.S. adults approve of Donald Trump’s recent felony conviction, according to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The survey shows some potential vulnerabilities, along with some signs of resilience in his support, as Trump tries to become the first American with a felony record to win the presidency.
Less than five months before Election Day, the poll paints a picture of a nation with firmly entrenched opinions of the divisive former Republican president. Overall views of Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden remain unchanged since before the guilty verdict in Trump’s New York hush money trial.
But the findings also suggest that Trump’s conviction is one more weakness among disaffected Republicans. While most people in the United States have heard about the conviction, political independents are less likely to be paying attention and more likely to have a neutral opinion of Trump’s conviction, indicating that there may still be room for the campaigns to sway them.
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Nancy Hauser, a 74-year-old independent from West Palm Beach, Florida, said she approves of Trump’s conviction based on the little she followed of the trial. The verdict, she said, suggests that Trump may be willing to engage in criminal activity if he were back in the White House.
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“I feel if you’ve been convicted of a crime, especially a felony, a serious crime, how can you run a country?” she said.


But she also has concerns about Biden, especially his age and leadership on the economy and the war in Israel. Biden is 81, while Trump turns 78 on Friday.
“I’m not sure who I’m voting for,” Hauser said. “That’s the sad part.”
Overall, U.S. adults are more likely to approve of Trump’s conviction than they are to disapprove, according to a survey of 1,115 adults nationwide conducted over three days beginning a week after the verdict was delivered May 30, and before Biden’s son Hunter was convicted in a federal gun case on Tuesday.
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About 3 in 10 somewhat or strongly disapprove of Trump’s conviction, and about 2 in 10 do not approve or disapprove. Perspectives were similar among registered voters, with about half saying the conviction was the right choice.
Republicans are less united on the verdict than are Democrats. Roughly 6 in 10 Republicans somewhat or strongly disapprove of the conviction, while 15% of Republican adults approve and about 2 in 10 Republicans neither approve nor disapprove. Among Democrats, by contrast, more than 8 in 10 somewhat or strongly approve.

About half of Americans say that the conviction was politically motivated, while a similar share think it was not. Nearly half of Republicans who have an unfavorable view of Trump do not see the conviction as politically motivated, compared with less than 1 in 10 Republicans who have a positive opinion of him.
Overall opinions of Trump barely budged.
About 6 in 10 U.S. adults have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, which is in line with findings from an AP-NORC poll conducted in February. Four in 10 have a favorable view of Trump, also largely unchanged since February.
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The numbers are equally poor for Biden: 4 in 10 U.S. adults have a favorable view of the Democratic president, while about 6 in 10 have a negative one.
Ron Schwartz, a 59-year-old self-described moderate Republican who lives in Dallas, said that Trump was “probably guilty” of the alleged crimes, although Schwartz believes politics were a major factor in the case.
He said the charges should not have been felonies, a level of crime that blocks those convicted from owning guns or voting in many states. Still, Schwartz plans to vote for Trump, as he did in the past two presidential elections, despite having serious concerns about the former president’s character.
“I think he’s a disgusting human being,” Schwartz said. “But he has some good policies and good ideas.”
Independents are split on Trump overall: About 4 in 10 have a positive view, while a similar share have a negative view. A plurality — nearly half — did not express a strong opinion on the conviction, saying they did not approve or disapprove.
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Cassi Carey, a 60-year-old independent who lives in suburban Milwaukee, said the conviction does not reflect well on Trump, although she acknowledges she was not paying close attention to the specifics.
“I think Trump is a terrible choice for our country because of his divisiveness,” Carey said. She also lamented the advanced age of Biden, who turns 82 in November.
“Someday in my lifetime, I want very much to be able to vote for a candidate and not against a candidate,” she said.
Overall, Americans are more likely to see Trump’s conviction as bad for the nation.
About 4 in 10 adults describe it as a bad thing for the country overall, while about one-third say it was a good thing and about 2 in 10 say it is neither. As for the U.S. democratic system, about 4 in 10 say the conviction is a good thing, with roughly the same share calling it a bad thing.
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Trump continues to be overwhelmingly disliked by Democrats: 9 in 10 Democrats have an unfavorable view of him, with roughly 8 in 10 saying their opinion is “very unfavorable.”
Democrat Oscar Baza, a 29-year-old Mexican immigrant who lives in Los Angeles, said he approves of the Trump verdict, which is evidence of “the judicial process working as it should.”
“I just think it’s really worrisome that he’s on the ballot,” Baza said. “If you’ve been convicted of 34 counts of anything, you probably shouldn’t be leading anything, you should be going to therapy.”

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The poll of 1,115 adults was conducted June 7-10, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
 

‘Who’s the Black guy?’: Evangelicals want Trump to pick an anti-abortion running mate. They care less who it is.​

Trump has evangelical voters locked in.
Former President Donald Trump motions to the crowd after speaking at a campaign rally.


Former President Donald Trump is entering a very different kind of veepstakes now than he was in 2016. | John Locher/AP
By ADAM WREN and MEGAN MESSERLY
06/13/2024 05:00 AM EDT



INDIANAPOLIS — Eight years ago, needing a running mate to vouch for him among skittish evangelicals, Donald Trump turned to Mike Pence, tossing an olive branch to Republicans wary of the thrice-married real estate mogul who once said he was “very pro-choice.”
It’s a different story now: To those same voters this year, according to interviews with nearly two dozen religious leaders gathered here for the annual meeting of the Southern Baptist Convention, Trump’s selection is bordering on a forgettable formality — less interesting to them because they’ve already made up their minds to back him, even if begrudgingly so.



“I think evangelicals will generally, by and large, vote for him regardless of who he picks,” said Kevin McClure, a member of a Baptist church in Louisville, Kentucky, who spoke as he waited for Trump himself to beam into a meeting held on the sidelines of the convention. “Because the Republican platform currently, in the very least, has a place for pro-life priorities, even if they’re not as strong as many of us would want.”




Or as Mike Spradlin, a delegate to the convention from Memphis, Tennessee, put it: “I don’t really know that it moves the needle one way or the other.”
It’s not that the vice presidential pick is irrelevant to the faithful. Many evangelicals here say they want Trump to pick someone who is sufficiently anti-abortion, or even to Trump’s right on the issue — both because that person could press their cause inside the West Wing and because he or she could be in line to inherit the MAGA movement.


Trump touts actions against abortion access

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Albert Mohler, a prominent evangelical theologian and president of Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, argued that Trump’s vice presidential pick could mean the difference between on-the-fence voters staying home or turning out to the polls come November. Mohler said Trump should pick someone who not only says the right things on abortion but “hopefully has a track record of defending them.”







But who, exactly, Trump picks from his shortlist is of far less concern. To most evangelicals here, the people Trump’s considering — at least the ones they know — seem to pass that litmus test.
“Who’s the Black guy?” asked Bonnie Fitch, of Carter Creek Missionary Baptist Church in Greenville, Kentucky.
Asked whether she was referring to South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, the former presidential candidate who is known for his evangelical faith, she and her husband lit up. “I just like the way he’s been speaking,” said Bonnie’s husband, Sid.
Trump’s campaign is said to be vetting eight potential candidates: Scott, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Florida Rep. Byron Donalds, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson. His pick will likely be announced close to the party’s convention in Milwaukee beginning on July 15.
Trump is entering a very different kind of veepstakes now than he was in 2016. His governing style is clearer now than it was then.
“We took a risk on what he said he would do, and he came through and he delivered in that case,” said Scott Colter, the CEO of the Danbury Institute, which wants to “eradicate” abortion, as he introduced Trump’s pre-recorded video message to a room full of Southern Baptists. “And so we can debate all day long the merits of who Donald Trump is and his personality and all of those different things. But he did what he said he would do. … And I’m tremendously grateful for that.”

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But who he should pick to run with him resonated less here. Mohler declined to say who he would like to see the former president pick. And other evangelicals — while namechecking Rubio most, followed by Scott — didn’t have an overwhelming favorite. Many couldn’t name more than even a few.
Several of those interviewed specifically pointed to Rubio’s youth — in addition to his conservative bona fides — as one of his assets. At 53, he is not the youngest candidate under consideration — Vance is 39. But they expressed concerns about the ability of Trump, who is 77, to complete a second term.


Then vs. Now: Trump's shifting abortion stance

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“I really like Rubio because I think he has the fortitude to carry on as president after Trump,” said Daryl Poe, who attends Mt. Carmel Baptist Church in Cincinnati, Ohio. “The young man from Ohio, J.D. Vance, seems to be more politically aligned with Trump than anyone else, but I don’t think he has enough time nationally to be that well known.”





Evangelicals are also aware that Trump’s MAGA base is predominantly white, and some said he should pick a running mate like Scott or Rubio to appeal to voters of color.
“A diversity candidate would be great because Trump is for everybody. I feel like that’s a common misconception that he’s just for white people, but he’s for everybody,” said Bryan Gotcher, a pastor at Oakhill Baptist Church in Evansville, Indiana. “There’s a lot of ethnic people who are rallying to him, so that’s really encouraging.”
And then there’s the issue of abortion. On Tuesday, one attendee at the convention who is to Trump’s right on the issue spent 40 minutes over lunch sharing insights with pastors about how important it is to be a voice for evangelical causes in the public square. “I honestly think we haven’t come to the end of the debate over life: We’ve come to the end of the beginning,” the attendee said.
Heads nodded.
But asked by a reporter whether he had a favorite candidate or advice for whomever Trump would pick, the attendee, who drove here from his residence about 30 minutes away, didn’t have much to say.
The man, former Vice President Mike Pence, smiled at the question. And then he slipped out the exit.
 

Nevada Democrats sue secretary of state and Green Party to block Jill Stein from ballot​

Jacob Crosse
20 hours ago​

The Democratic Party is escalating its attacks on third-party candidates in an effort to block any challenge to the two-party monopoly. On June 11, the campaign of Green Party candidate for US president, Dr. Jill Stein, reported that the Nevada State Democratic Party has sued the Nevada secretary of state and the Nevada Green Party, in an autocratic bid to keep Stein off the ballot.
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Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein. [AP Photo/Matt Rourke]
Posting on X, Jason Call, the campaign manager for Stein, reported that the Democrats filed their lawsuit less than “24 hours” after the Green Party submitted some 29,500 signatures, nearly three times the 10,000 signatures required, to appear on the ballot.
In a follow-up post, Call reported that the Democrats are “alleging that we did not have the required distribution among the 4 [Nevada] congressional districts—meaning that a minimum of 2,500 valid signatures must have come from each.”
Call added that the Democrats “are also going through the signature sheets and seeking to strike signatures for various reasons. Mostly they are trying to tie up our resources so we can’t put them elsewhere. It’s a Wal-Mart approach to overwhelming the competition.”

Ballot access laws for third parties are different in every state. While the Democratic and Republican parties automatically appear on the ballot, third-party candidates are required to spend thousands (and sometimes millions) of dollars and countless hours to obtain tens of thousands of signatures to gain ballot access. Nearly every state requires the collection of a substantial number of petition signatures, and many also require specific minimum signature amounts from the various congressional districts in the state. Every state requires that the signatures be collected within a specific window of time, which can vary greatly, from a year or more to only a few weeks. In addition, most states mandate the naming of presidential electors from every congressional district.

In a follow-up email to the WSWS, Call explained that the Democrats are “attacking the paperwork of the very existence of the Nevada Green Party, saying it was filed late, trying to invalidate any signatures collected prior to January 10.”
Call noted that the Democrats are suing the Nevada secretary of state, Democrat Francisco Aguilar, because his office provided “an incomplete file of our petitions,” which Call surmised would “be resolved simply by the Secretary of State providing them the complete file.”
Call clarified that the Green Party did not submit the required paperwork late. Instead, he wrote, “the Nevada Secretary of State processed it late and we have an affidavit to that effect.”
The Democratic Party campaign has mobilized vast resources, with millions of dollars and an army of lawyers deployed to block third-party challengers. Call said, “They are trying to bleed us out. A tactic of empire. I used the Wal-Mart analogy due to Wal-Mart’s strategy of putting its competitor out of business through overwhelming resources.”
Responding to the anti-democratic actions of the Democratic Party, Socialist Equality Party candidate for US president Joseph Kishore denounced “the efforts of the Democratic Party to keep Jill Stein off the ballot in Nevada. The SEP supports the right of all third-party candidates to get on the ballot.”

Kishore wrote that the Democrats’ efforts “to block candidates from obtaining ballot status is an attack on the most basic democratic right, the right to vote. The two parties of the capitalist ruling elite want to prevent workers and youth from having the ability to vote for anyone besides Biden and Trump.”

He added, “The Democrats have declared an ‘all-out war’ on third parties and independent candidates, while at the same time they appeal to fascistic Republicans for support to prosecute wars abroad and attacks on immigrants at home. This exposes the fraud of their pretense to be defending democracy against Trump. The central priority of the Democratic Party is the escalation of war, including the US-NATO war against Russia and the genocide in Gaza.
“The defense of democratic rights is impossible without addressing the root cause of dictatorship: the concentration of staggering sums of money in the hands of a small fraction of the population. More than 330 million people live in the United States, yet the entire political establishment is controlled by the corporate and financial oligarchy. The wealth of the billionaires must be expropriated and the gigantic corporations must be transformed into publicly controlled utilities, run on the basis of social need, not private profit.”
 

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