United States elections 2024

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https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1dl2vs3

 

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June 2024 State Polls: Trump Maintains Edge over Biden - Emerson Polling

Democratic US Senate Candidates Outperforming Biden New Emerson College Polling/The Hill state polls find former…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

June 2024 State Polls: Trump Maintains Edge over Biden​

June 20th, 2024

Home Polls June 2024 State Polls: Trump Maintains Edge over Biden

Democratic US Senate Candidates Outperforming Biden
New Emerson College Polling/The Hill state polls find former President Donald Trump with a slight edge on President Joe Biden in Arizona (47% to 43%), Georgia (45% to 41%), Wisconsin (47% to 44%) Nevada (46% to 43%), Pennsylvania (47% to 45%), and Michigan (46% to 45%), while Biden splits with Trump in Minnesota (45% to 45%).

“In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Notably, results fall within the poll’s margin of error.”
“Independent voters break for Trump in all seven states – however, there has been some movement among these voters since April,” Kimball said. “In Arizona, Trump’s support among independents dropped five points, from 48% to 43%. In Michigan, Trump’s support dropped three, from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump dropped eight points, from 49% to 41%. Biden lost support among independents in Georgia, by six points, 42% to 36% and Nevada, by five, 37% to 32%.”
While Biden trails Trump, the Democratic Senate candidate leads the Republican candidate in Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Democratic Senate candidates outperform Biden by two in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, three in Minnesota, and seven in Nevada.
AZ: Ruben Gallego (D) 45%, Kari Lake (R) 41%, 14% undecided

MN: Amy Klobuchar (D) 48%, Royce White (R) 37%, 11% undecided
MI: Elissa Slotkin (D) 43%, Mike Rogers (R) 39%, 18% undecided

NV: Jacky Rosen (D) 50%, Sam Brown (R) 38%, 13% undecided

PA: Bob Casey (D) 47%, David McCormick (R) 41%, 12% undecided

WI: Tammy Baldwin (D) 46%, Eric Hovde (R) 44%, 10% undecided

Biden State approval

• AZ: 36% approve, 54% disapprove, 10% neutral
• GA: 35% approve, 54% disapprove, 11% neutral
• MI: 39% approve, 52% disapprove, 10% neutral
• MN: 38% approve, 51% disapprove, 11% neutral
• NV: 38% approve, 54% disapprove, 9% neutral
• PA: 39% approve, 53% disapprove, 8% neutral

Gubernatorial State approval:

• AZ: Katie Hobbs (D) 36% approve, 43% disapprove, 22% neutral
• GA: Brian Kemp (R) 49% approve, 28% disapprove, 23% neutral
• MI: Gretchen Whitmer (D) 49% approve, 40% disapprove, 11% neutral
• MN: Tim Walz (D) 45% approve, 42% disapprove, 13% neutral
• NV: Joe Lombardo (R) 37% approve, 30% disapprove, 33% neutral
• PA: Josh Shapiro (D) 49% approve, 29% disapprove, 22% neutral

State Issues
Voters in Arizona and Nevada were asked if they would vote “yes” or “no” on a potential ballot measure to establish the constitutional right to abortion in their state. In Arizona, 56% would vote “yes,” 26% would vote “no,” and 18% are not sure yet. In Nevada, 58% would vote “yes,” 20% “no,” and 21% are not sure yet.

• Women in Arizona would vote “yes” 61% to 23%; men support the measure 50% to 29%.
• Women in Nevada support the measure 52% to 17%; men support 54% to 25%.

Regarding a ballot measure in Arizona that allowed for state and local police to arrest noncitizens who cross the border unlawfully, and allow state judges to order deportations, 55% would vote “yes,” 29% “no,” and 16% are not sure.
The most important issue for each state remains the economy: 27% in Arizona note it as their top issue, 45% in Georgia, 41% in Michigan, 34% in Minnesota, 35% in Nevada, 44% in Pennsylvania, and 42% in Wisconsin. Immigration closely follows the economy as a top concern in Arizona, at 26%.
Perceived impact of Trump conviction & Hunter Biden conviction
Voters were asked if Donald Trump’s criminal conviction of 34 felonies impacts their vote this November, or if it has no impact. A plurality in all states say it has no impact on their vote.
Voters were asked if Hunter Biden’s criminal conviction of three felonies impacts their vote for Biden this November, or if it has no impact. A majority of voters in each state said it has no impact on their vote.
Methodology
The sample for each state included n=1,000 registered voters. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration and turnout data. The credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, for the sample is +/- 3% in 19 of 20 cases in each state.
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines (except for MN) via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between June 13-18, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

 

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Trump Slams Fani Willis’ Bid To Dismiss Appeal As ‘Hail Mary’

Former President Donald Trump likely will not go to trial in Georgia until after the November election.

www.forbes.com

Trump Slams Fani Willis’ Bid To Dismiss Appeal As ‘Hail Mary’​

Brian Bushard
Forbes Staff
Brian is a Boston-based Forbes breaking news reporter.
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Jun 20, 2024,12:52pm EDT
Updated Jun 21, 2024, 10:13am EDT

TOPLINE​

Former President Donald Trump on Thursday slammed Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ bid to dismiss Trump’s latest appeal in the case, calling it a “Hail Mary,” as Trump continues his efforts to delay proceedings.

Former President Donald Trump Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ bid to dismiss Trump’s ... [+]
AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

KEY FACTS​

Georgia Judge Scott McAfee, who is overseeing the case, ruled not to disqualify Willis after a contentious hearing in March, finding defendants did not prove “an actual conflict of interest” over her romantic relationship with prosecutor Nathan Wade, though McAfee also ordered either Willis or Wade to step down over the “appearance of impropriety,” leading to Wade’s resignation.

Trump and nine of his co-defendants appealed that decision one week later, arguing it amounted to “plain legal error requiring reversal,” and Willis filed to dismiss that appeal.

In its filing on Thursday, attorneys representing Trump—who has pleaded not guilty to 13 felony counts in Georgia for an alleged bid to overturn the 2020 election—asked the state court to deny prosecutors’ motion to dismiss Trump’s appeal of a judge’s ruling to allow Willis to keep prosecuting the case.

Trump’s team slammed Willis’ motion to dismiss as a “desperate bid to avoid disqualification,” calling her a “deeply conflicted” district attorney.
Trump’s legal team also claimed the court’s finding was “largely irrelevant” to the issue of judicial misconduct, slamming that decision as a “calculated, disingenuous attempt to mislead” the court “for the obvious purpose of preventing” an appeal.
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WHAT TO WATCH FOR​

The Georgia Court of Appeals earlier this month scheduled another disqualification hearing for Willis for Oct. 4 stemming from Trump’s appeal, likely postponing the start of the trial until after the November election. According to Georgia law, the appeals court must issue a ruling in two terms, giving it until March 2025.
PROMOTED

KEY BACKGROUND​

Trump, along with 18 co-defendants, was indicted by a Fulton County grand jury last August, in one of four criminal indictments since launching his 2024 presidential campaign. The former president has pleaded not guilty to all charges, including charges of violating the state’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act, as well as conspiracy to commit forgery, false statements and filing false documents. Trump has also decried the proceedings as a legal “witch hunt,” reiterating a criticism he has made a rallying cry throughout his campaign, including in New York, where he was found guilty last month in a separate criminal hush money case. In Georgia, meanwhile, Trump has sought to delay the trial, and that effort picked up steam early this year, amid rounded criticism of Willis for maintaining a relationship with Wade. Trump’s co-defendants, led by Michael Roman, accused Willis of dating Wade before she hired him for the case, with Roman filing a lawsuit to disqualify Willis over an alleged conflict of interest and for violating state public money laws over a series of alleged vacations with Wade. While Willis and Wade both admitted to having a relationship, they denied it predated Trump’s case. Wade stepped down from the case in March.

 

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/06/21/election-2024-campaign-updates/

 

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DNC plans to hit Trump in Philadelphia on his relationship with Black community

The DNC has a message ready for former President Donald Trump at his rally Saturday in Philadelphia.

www.cbsnews.com

DNC plans to hit Trump in Philadelphia on his relationship with Black community​

By Shawna Mizelle
Updated on: June 21, 2024 / 6:40 AM EDT / CBS News



When former President Donald Trump shows up at Temple University for a rally Saturday, the Democratic National Committee will have a message for him — and the party is doing its best to make sure he sees it, too, with a billboard, a mobile billboard and kiosks in buildings around the campus where the rally will take place.

"Donald Trump is coming to North Philly, but he can't fool us," the mobile billboard reads. "He's a disaster for Black Americans."

The kiosks, taking aim at Trump's relationship with the Black community and young voters, highlight President Biden's student loan forgiveness efforts. They'll be placed in buildings across the campus, and there will be a billboard saying, "If Trump wins, Black families lose" along I-95.

Here's one of the DNC graphics:

DNC kiosk and billboard graphic DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE
The effort comes a couple of days after Juneteenth, the federal holiday that commemorates the end of slavery, and follows recent reports that Trump called Milwaulkee, where the Republican National Convention will be held this year, a "horrible city" during a meeting with House Republicans.


Vice President Kamala Harris talked about the Milwaukee comment in an interview with radio host Sherwin Hughes on Thursday.

"You look at what Donald Trump did to… criticize Milwaukee. He did that with my home city of Oakland," Harris said. "He did that as it relates to Baltimore, as it relates to Atlanta and Philadelphia. And, I will let your listeners connect the dots in terms of what all those cities have in common. There seems to be a pattern at play," she said, alluding to the fact those cities all have large Black populations.

In 2017, Mr. Trump said Atlanta was "falling apart" and "crime-infested." During his presidency, he called Baltimore "rat and rodent-infested." And while casting doubt on the 2020 election, Trump called Philadelphia, the site of Saturday's rally, one of "the most corrupt political places anywhere in our country."

In response to Harris, Janiyah Thomas, Team Trump's Black media director, said, "President Trump was referring to how Democrat policies are failing these blue cities. If you ask the average voter in these cities, they will say that Joe Biden and the Democrats have abandoned their communities and they are desperate for change."


Thomas added that the Trump campaign is doing outreach to minority voters while Mr. Biden's campaign is gaslighting Black voters.

Black voters were a key demographic that helped Mr. Biden win in 2020, and they were pivotal in his pursuit of the Democratic nomination. Despite that, there have been indications that his support is faltering within the Black community.

A recent CBS News poll shows that 57% of Black voters feel things would be better for them if Biden is reelected, compared to 69% of Black voters who felt the same sentiment should Trump win. Still, 81% of Black voters said that they would support Mr. Biden over Trump.

In an effort to make inroads with the Black community, Trump held a roundtable with community leaders at a church in Detroit on Saturday. At the event, Trump said Mr. Biden has been the "worst president for Black people."

In a statement, DNC spokesperson Abhi Rahman reiterated that Trump was "a disaster for minority communities — particularly Black Americans."

"He says he's not racist, but his record says differently. Over and over again, he has insulted predominantly Black cities, and during his time in office, jobs disappeared, unemployment more than doubled for Black Americans during the pandemic, and his tax scam widened the racial wealth gap," Rahman said.

Rahman also argued Black wealth hit a record low under Trump, while small, Black-owned businesses started at a higher rate under the Biden administration.

 

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Trump courts rappers as surrogates for his campaign to win more voters of color

From Lil Wayne to Sexyy Red, Trump is getting support from a bevy of rappers as he seeks to court young, Black voters.

www.nbcnews.com

Trump courts rappers as surrogates for his campaign to win more voters of color​

From Lil Wayne to Sexyy Red, Trump is getting support from a bevy of rappers as he seeks to court young, Black voters.

June 20, 2024, 4:00 PM EDT
By Nnamdi Egwuonwu
At Donald Trump’s Black voter outreach event at a Detroit church last weekend, the church’s pastor and several prominent Black Republicans joined the former president onstage. So did another unlikelier figure: rapper Casada Sorrell, better known as Sada Baby.

Most Republican voters may not be familiar with Sada Baby, but there’s a good chance their kids are. In 2020, he went viral with his single “Whole Lotta Choppas,” a pandemic mainstay on TikTok that was among the first viral records on the app.

Years later, he sat onstage inches from Trump and said, “He might be the first person to make me vote,” fueled in part by the mere fact that Trump’s team reached out to him.

“Him reaching out showed me, like, some type of effort that another candidate hadn’t shown ever,” Sorrell said, noting that Trump could have pursued a bigger Detroit name like rapper Eminem (a notorious critic of him). “I’m trying to act like it doesn’t mean too much, but it means a lot.”

And it’s not a one-off move. As Trump works to court young voters of color, one strategy his campaign has pursued is to turn rap stars into surrogates, pursuing not only nationally renowned names but also smaller acts prominent in their local communities.

The campaign hopes the outreach will create a permission structure for undecided voters in communities with little history of supporting Republicans to at least consider Trump’s message. And Trump is embracing rappers — and they are embracing him — as polling data suggests this election may feature a generational split among Black voters, with younger members of the community showing much more openness to Trump.

Icewear Vezzo, another Detroit-based rapper who was at Trump’s event in Michigan, encouraged his fans to consider Trump after having gotten backlash for posing with him after the roundtable discussion.

“Why can’t we respectfully disagree no more,” Vezzo said in a post to his 1 million Instagram followers. “You know what’s built great companies and great civilizations? They all went and got a team of people who think differently from them.”

During Trump’s rally in the Bronx, New York, in the waning days of his criminal hush money trial, he brought onstage Brooklyn rappers Sheff G and Sleepy Hallow, both mainstays in New York’s increasingly influential drill scene. The week before, they were both charged in a 140-count indictment in Brooklyn that accused a group of “allegedly committing shootings, possessing guns, and using stolen cars during shootings, to eliminate” rival gang members.

Former President Donald Trump with rappers Sheff G and Sleepy Hallow at a campaign rally at Crotona Park in the Bronx borough of New York City on May 23. Brendan McDermid / Reuters

“One thing I want to say is they always going to whisper your accomplishments and shout your failures. Trump is going to shout the wins for all of us,” said Sheff G, whose real name is Michael Williams.

Tegan Chambers (aka Sleepy Hallow) delivered a single line when he was asked to speak: “Make America Great Again.”

A spokesperson for the Trump campaign called Trump’s engagement with the rap community “completely organic,” saying the message resonates with the artists because they’re unhappy with President Joe Biden’s immigration and economic policies.

“While Joe Biden gaslights Black voters with nonsense ads, empty promises, and unrelatable messaging, President Trump is showing up in these communities and listening to the leaders within them, including rappers, pastors, and business leaders,” said Janiyah Thomas, the Trump campaign’s Black media director.

The Biden campaign suggested in a statement that Trump’s embrace of rappers does little to counter what it framed as a track record of “disrespecting Black communities every chance he gets.”

“It’s why the first thing he did after taking over the RNC was shut down its minority outreach centers, and it’s why his campaign keeps staging their so-called ‘outreach’ in white neighborhoods and in front of white audiences. Our campaign is on the ground engaging with our communities on the issues that matter, while President Biden is showing up — himself — to earn Black Americans’ support,” Biden-Harris campaign spokesperson Sarafina Chitika said in a statement.

The Biden campaign hasn’t reached out to rappers to the same degree, instead prioritizing access for Black media outlets like The Shade Room and doling out interviews to roughly two dozen Black radio programs this election cycle.

Vice President Kamala Harris took part Tuesday in a gun violence prevention event hosted by Atlanta-based rapper Quavo, following up on a White House meeting she had with him back in September. Quavo has yet to formally endorse the Biden-Harris campaign.

But though it’s not actively seeking rappers’ endorsements, the Biden campaign notes it is making a play for voters through its presence at several events centered on Black music and culture, including J. Cole’s Dreamville Fest in North Carolina and Usher’s Lovers & Friends Fest in Las Vegas.

The specifics pulling Trump and notable rappers together​

Trump’s reputational redemption from some rap artists has been fueled in part by praise he received for his handling of criminal justice matters.

Rappers Lil Wayne and Kodak Black became vocal supporters of Trump after he included both in his list of 143 pardons and commutations in the final hours of his term in 2021.

“I want to thank President Trump for recognizing that I have so much more to give to my family, my art, and my community,” Lil Wayne said on what was then called Twitter a day after Biden’s inauguration.

The First Step Act, the most significant federal criminal justice reform in this century, which Trump signed into law in 2018, has also been praised for shortening prison time for some nonviolent offenders and implementing sentencing reforms. It’s among the reasons Billboard chart-topping rapper Sexyy Red cited for her support of Trump.

“I like Trump,” Sexyy Red said in an interview with comedian Theo Von. “Once he started getting Black people out of jail and giving people that free money. Aw baby, we love Trump. We need him back in office.”

As Red alluded to, Trump has been praised for the stimulus funds his administration gave to tens of millions of people during the Covid-19 pandemic under the Paycheck Protection Program, with his name printed on the fronts of paper checks mailed across the country.

“The Black community was not f------ with Trump, but when that PPP and all that came out, Black people forgave him,” West Coast rapper YG said, nearly eight years after he released a diss track protesting Trump’s 2016 presidential bid.

Rapper 50 Cent, during a visit to Capitol Hill in which he met with Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana and Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, told reporters he sees Black men “identifying with Trump” because “they got RICO charges [too].” That belief has been perpetuated by Trump and shared by some of his Black supporters, as well.

Emmuel Brown, 77, a Detroit resident who attended Trump's recent event there, said that “there are a lot of Black men that have been in trouble, so they can identify” with Trump.

But other voters are turned off by Trump’s claim that Black people find him more favorable because of his criminal cases. A majority of participants in an NBC News focus group of undecided Black voters in North Carolina called the assertion racist.

“It’s like an insult,” said Kelli P., 38, a participant from Jacksonville, North Carolina. “Are you serious? That’s what you think of us?”

Can rappers turn out voters?​

Some critics have downplayed the significance of Trump’s embrace of rappers, noting that he boasted endorsements in 2020 from the likes of legacy acts like Kanye West and younger acts like the then-viral Lil Pump — but didn’t get a substantial increase in support from Black voters compared to 2016.

To some voters in battleground states, though, the rappers’ support is a reminder of the prominence Trump once held in hip-hop, when he was highly regarded as an aspirational figure regularly name-dropped in records.

“Growing up, I listened to 50 Cent. I used to hear Donald Trump on the mix tapes,” said Emani L., 32, a Georgia resident who declined to give his last name. “To have a president that used to be in the hood clubbing with people that come from where I come from? C’mon, man. C’mon.”

Mansa King, a sociologist who studies racial inequality, said using rappers as surrogates could capture the attention of a diverse coalition of younger voters, noting that “rappers appeal beyond the Black demographic.”

But King also highlighted a challenge Trump’s campaign may face in using culturally relevant entertainers to galvanize younger voters.

“Young people can be very excited about someone but not translate that into what’s needed to actually affect electoral behavior at the most important levels,” King said. “Getting folks to actually translate their enthusiasm or support for a candidate into actually registering and going to the polls on Election Day is a whole different bag of chips.”

But if Trump’s appeal to entertainers increases his support among voters of color by even a few percentage points, it could have a big effect in a close election.

“I can’t just dismiss it,” King said. “I don’t think he needs to get a majority of the votes. I think he simply needs to break off a significant enough minority of the votes. And I could see that possibly happening through this sort of simplistic strategy.”

 

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How Biden Is Preparing for His 2024 Presidential Debate​

 

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Biden & Trump Preparing For Presidential Debate | The View​

 

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Fisher Investment Reviews Its Latest Outlook on the 2024 Presidential Election​

 

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BE PREPARED! UK's Top Astrologer PREDICTS Who Will Win 2024 US Elections & AFTERMATH! | Pam Gregory​

 

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How Biden’s age became the key question of the US election | The Listening Post​

 

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Trump donations surge following felony convictions amid impending presidential campaign​

 

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US Elections 2024: Poll by FiveThirtyEight shows Biden ahead of Trump by 0.1% | World News | WION​

 

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Social media bias and the upcoming US election.

 

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Byron Donalds: Biden has been a disaster for America​