United States elections 2024
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Yommie
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Michigan poll: Trump's edge takes notable leap in battleground state
The polls of Michigan voters show an almost unheard of level of support for a Republican presidential candidate in the state.
www.freep.com
Michigan poll: Trump's edge takes notable leap in battleground state
Todd SpanglerDetroit Free Press
0:15
1:23
An exclusive new Free Press poll of likely Michigan voters shows former President Donald Trump has taken a notable 7-percentage-point lead over incumbent President Joe Biden in the state, a result certain to further worry Democrats already pushing for Biden to abandon his reelection bid.
"It's only going to add to the pressure on Biden to step aside and have someone replace him," said Bernie Porn, the pollster for EPIC-MRA in Lansing, which conducted the survey of 600 voters for the Free Press and its media partners. "The Democrats are in a difficult position."
The poll showed Trump, who held a rally in Grand Rapids on Saturday evening, leading Biden 49%-42% in a head-to-head matchup, with 9% undecided, saying they would vote for neither or refusing to answer. In a five-way race, Trump led with 43% to 36% for Biden, 8% for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2% each for Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West. Again 9% said they either would not vote for president, pick someone else or were undecided.
Trump led in every region of the state, including in metro Detroit — defined as Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties and seen as the most predominantly Democratic region in Michigan — where he held a slim but remarkable 46%-44% edge in the head-to-head matchup with Biden and a 43%-38% margin in the five-way race.
Trump's lead in metro Detroit is a significant indicator of how the political winds have changed for Biden, who four years ago, beat Trump 56%-40% in the region.
The poll, which comes after a disastrous debate performance by Biden in late June when he struggled to form coherent answers and follows last Saturday's assassination attempt against Trump in Pennsylvania, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. EPIC-MRA began the survey the same day Trump was wounded in that assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, in which a spectator was killed and two other people were seriously injured. Secret Service shot and killed the gunman. The polling ended Wednesday, the third day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where Trump accepted his party's nomination for the third time.
Its result shows Trump has more than doubled his lead in Michigan, a pivotal swing state, since EPIC-MRA's last poll, done just before the June 27 presidential debate in Atlanta. In that poll, Trump led by 3 points in the head-to-head matchup.
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Porn, who has been doing polling in Michigan for decades, said he couldn't remember a survey he'd done showing a Republican presidential candidate in such a strong position in the state since then-Vice President George H.W. Bush ran successfully for president in 1988. Bush was the last Republican to win Michigan until Trump eked out a narrow win over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 by two-tenths of a percentage point.
Biden took Michigan by about 3 percentage points over Trump four years ago on his way to winning the White House.
The new poll adds to other recent ones showing growing levels of support for Trump in other swing states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, further calling into question Biden's chances of winning reelection amid questions about his age — at 81, he's already the oldest president ever — and mental fitness. Tellingly, the poll found a majority of respondents, 52%, believed Biden should step aside and not run, compared with 36% who believed he should remain the Democratic nominee. Twelve percent were undecided.
More than 30 Democratic members of Congress have called for Biden to step aside as the nominee, including one from Michigan, U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten, D-Grand Rapids.
In the poll, Democrats were split on the question of whether Biden should step aside, with 46% saying he should to 43% saying he shouldn't and 11% undecided. Independents and Republicans were more certain, with 55% of each bloc saying he should step down and 32% saying he shouldn't, with the rest undecided.
Importantly, 51% of Black voters — a key Democratic constituency — said Biden should remain the nominee compared with 39% who said he should step down.
The poll found that if Biden were to step aside, 19% believed Vice President Kamala Harris should replace him as the nominee; 17% said Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and 11% said former first lady Michelle Obama. Of five other names tested — California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, U.S. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker — none did better than single digits. Twenty percent of respondents mentioned some other name altogether.
The poll did not test any head-to-head matchups between Trump and any other potential Democratic nominee.
Meanwhile, it did not appear that criticisms of Trump, either as a danger to democracy because of his actions in trying to overturn the result of the 2020 election or his criminal indictments and conviction on charges he falsified business records to hide payments to an adult film actress, were hurting him with voters: Fifty-three percent said his legal problems would have no bearing on their decision in November's general election.
Forty-seven percent of respondents said they feared Biden continuing as president more than they did Trump returning, compared with 43% who said they feared Trump returning more. Five percent said they feared neither more and 5% were undecided or refused to answer.
The poll also showed more voters taking a better view of Trump: 45% said they viewed him favorably, compared with 48% who viewed him unfavorably. In EPIC-MRA's last poll in June, that view was split 41% favorable, 54% unfavorable.
Biden's numbers were far worse, with just 36% viewing him favorably and 57% viewing him unfavorably.
Voters unfamiliar with Project 2025, reject EV efforts
The poll also showed that in at least one potential down ballot race, Democrats were outperforming Biden: In a head-to-head matchup for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat, it had U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Holly, who is considered by many observers the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, leading the Republican front-runner, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, of Brighton, 43%-40%, with 17% undecided.But those numbers still are within the margin of error in a state where no Republican has won a U.S. Senate seat in 30 years.
There also were indications that efforts by the Biden campaign to rile up voters by trying to tie Trump to the so-called Project 2025 — a vision of a conservative upending of the federal bureaucracy written by some of his former aides and advisers — hasn't had much success yet in Michigan: 57% said they knew little about it or hadn't heard of it before the pollster asked them about it; 27% said they were somewhat familiar with it; and just 15% said they were very familiar with it.
After the pollster read a description of some of Project 2025's recommendations, including reducing taxes on corporations, eliminating the Affordable Care Act and giving the White House more control of Justice Department decisions, 65% of respondents said they disapproved of the program compared with just 25% who approved.
Trump and his campaign, however, have repeatedly said that he has not endorsed Project 2025 or said he intends to implement its recommendations if reelected.
Meanwhile, 55% of voters also said they disapprove of the Biden administration's push to have automakers produce and sell more electric vehicles, an effort Republicans have labeled a "mandate." Forty percent said they approve of the push and 5% were undecided.
On the issues, 31% cited inflation and the high cost of living as their biggest concern and 17% noted immigration along the Southern border; both are topics Trump and the Republicans have used against Biden and the Democrats. And when it comes to one of the biggest issues of the 2022 midterm elections, abortion, 12% said protecting abortion rights was most important. Democrats have continued to hammer Trump and the rest of the GOP this election cycle on the issue of reproductive rights, but it may have less of an effect this year in Michigan after voters decided overwhelmingly to add reproductive rights' protections to the state constitution two years ago after the U.S. Supreme Court reversed the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision.
Men, white voters largely supporting Trump
The poll found that among Black voters overall, Biden had a commanding lead of 64% to 11% for Trump in the five-way race, with 15% going to third party candidates and 10% undecided, though that was less support than exit polls showed him getting from that voting bloc four years ago. Among the larger number of white voters, 48% supported Trump, compared with just 33% for Biden and 10% going to third-party candidates.Among different age groups, Biden only won with one: voters 65 and older, 50% of whom supported him compared with 41% for Trump, 3% for third party candidates and 6% undecided or refusing to answer. Younger voters age 18-34, who are considered an important bloc for Democrats, were split 33%-33% between Biden and Trump, with 22% selecting a third-party option.
Male voters overwhelmingly supported Trump, 47% to 31% for Biden. While women favored Biden, 41%-39%, it wasn't nearly strong enough to overwhelm men's support for the Republican nominee.
Trump led with 84% support among Republicans, just 3% of whom said they would support Biden. Among Democrats, 77% supported Biden compared with 4% who backed Trump. The key bloc of self-described independents split 33% for Trump, 27% for Biden and 22% for a third-party candidate, with much of that support — 14% — going to Kennedy. Another 14% were undecided, refused to answer or said they would vote for someone else or not at all.
There also continued to be a education gap among voter choices: Among voters with a high school degree or less, 51% preferred Trump compared with 29% for Biden, 14% for third-party candidates and 6% undecided. Voters with some college or post-high school education favored Trump over Biden 44%-31%. Voters with college degrees supported Biden 43% to 38% for Trump, with 9% going to third-party candidates.
Yommie
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Trump favorability rises following shooting, majority of Americans want Biden to end campaign: POLL
Former President Donald Trump's favorability rating rose to 40% following the assassination attempt on his life and the RNC, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.
abcnews.go.com
Trump favorability rises following shooting, majority of Americans want Biden to end campaign: POLL
More Americans also blame Trump for rise in political violence.ByIvan Pereira
July 21, 2024, 9:00 AM
3:04
What a new poll says about Biden’s support among voters
What a new poll says about Biden’s support among voters
President Joe Biden is expected to return to the campaign trail after recovering from COVID with just we...Show More
Following a week that included an assassination attempt on his life and the Republican National Convention, former President Donald Trump's favorability rating among Americans rose while a majority of Americans want President Joe Biden to drop out of the race, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.
Trump's favorability rating increased to 40% following last week's events, marking his highest favorability rating in four years of ABC News/Ipsos polling. For most of the last four years, it has hovered in the low to mid 30% range.
MORE: 2024 election live updates
Its high over the last nine years was 42% in August of 2020 according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted then. At the same time, about half of Americans, 51%, currently view Trump unfavorably, according to this most recent poll.
Trump took the stage on Thursday at the RNC, just days after a bullet grazed his ear at a campaign rally on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania. During his 90-minute acceptance speech, he went after Democrats and Biden over several issues including immigration, despite initial calls for unity.
Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump gives his acceptance speech at t...Show more
Mike Segar/Reuters | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Biden's favorability rating is now lower than Trump's, standing at 32% with 55% having an unfavorable view of the current president. There has been virtually no movement in Biden's favorability rating over the last year. It stood at 33% during the first week of August 2023.
While Trump accepted his nomination among an adoring crowd of Republican supporters, Biden faces mounting pressure from Democrats on the Hill to bow out of the race.
According to the poll, it is a sentiment that is shared by a majority of Democrats with 60% saying he should drop out of the race.
In fact, slightly more Republicans, 44%, than Democrats, 39%, think the president should continue his campaign, echoing the belief of many in the Trump campaign that Biden would be easier to beat than an alternative candidate.
Over half of the American public, 55%, say they would be dissatisfied with Biden as the presidential Democratic nominee. On the other hand, most Democrats, 58%, would be satisfied with Biden being their party's nominee.
When it comes to both candidates, 15% of Americans are "double haters," holding unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden, according to the poll.
Americans trust Trump to do a better job than Biden uniting the country as president by a seven-point margin, 38% to 31%. Twenty-nine percent of Americans say they trust neither.
However, the poll also finds that more Americans blame Trump than Biden for the risk of politically motivated violence in this country, 46% to 27%.
Several alternatives have been floated as a possible replacement on the Democratic ticket in recent weeks, and Vice President Kamala Harris has the strongest favorability rating among them, 35%, the poll finds. Her unfavorability rating is 46%.
However, the other possible replacement candidates are less well-known than Harris.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to a crowd during a campaign event at James B. Dudley High Sch...Show more
Sean Rayford/Getty Images
Harris's favorability rating is 55% among Black Americans and 38% among Hispanic Americans, according to the poll. By comparison, Biden's favorability is 49% among Black Americans and 35% among Hispanic Americans. Trump's favorability among Black Americans is 15%, and it's 37% among Hispanic Americans.
Other Democrats who were assessed as potential candidates to replace Biden, such as Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer were much less well known even among Democrats.
The poll also looked at Sen. JD Vance for the first time after Trump nominated the Ohio senator to be his running mate.
Vice presidential nominee Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) speaks on Day 3 of the Republican National Conv...Show more
Mike Segar/Reuters
The freshman senator's favorability rating is 25% with 31% unfavorable and 43% saying they don't know or have no opinion. Even among his fellow Republicans, 37% do not know enough about him to offer an opinion, while 56% view him favorably and only 6% unfavorably.
Thirty-five percent of Americans rate Trump's selection of Vance as his vice presidential running mate as either excellent or good, and 32% say it's not so good or poor. About the same number, 34%, did not know enough to offer an opinion.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted using the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® July 19-20, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,141 U.S. adults with oversamples of Black and Hispanic respondents weighted to their correct proportions in the general population. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.1 points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls. Partisan divisions are 31-29-30 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. See the poll's topline results and details on the methodology here.
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