United States elections 2024
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Trump gets the better of Harris in expansive swing-state poll — but he’s not helping Republicans downballot
A new survey of 10 swing states suggests former President Donald Trump will be competitive on Election Day, but he may be little help to Republicans downballot in some of the most fiercely conteste…
nypost.com
Trump gets the better of Harris in expansive swing-state poll — but he’s not helping Republicans downballot
ByA.G. Gancarski
Published Aug. 20, 2024, 1:13 p.m. ET
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A new survey of 10 swing states (a few of which are debatable in that designation) suggests former President Donald Trump will be competitive on Election Day, but he may be little help to Republicans downballot in some of the most fiercely contested states.
That’s the upshot of a Redfield and Wilton survey of “voter intention” in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
First, the good news for Republicans: Trump is ahead (albeit narrowly) in five of these states, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading in four and Georgia a tie.
If those polls held, Trump would win 267 electoral votes to Harris’ 255, meaning Georgia would be the deciding factor of who crosses the 270 threshold to win the presidency.
6Former President Donald Trump speaking at a rally in York, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 19, 2024.JIM LO SCALZO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
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Trump leads by 1 point in Arizona, 44% to 43%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. taking 5%, other candidates garnering 2% and 6% undecided. This is well inside the +/- 3.71% margin of error.
In the Sunshine State, considered here even though the GOP has a million more active registered voters than the Democrats do, Trump leads by 5 points, 48% to 43% for Harris. Kennedy has 3% support, while another 3% don’t know whom they’ll back, and 1% want another candidate. The margin of error here is +/- 2.51%.
In Michigan, where Democrats control the vast majority of statewide offices, Trump leads in this snapshot of the race, 45% to 44%, well inside the +/- 3.97% MOE. Kennedy draws a 4% protest vote, 4% of Michiganders don’t know how they’ll vote, and 2% want someone else altogether.
Nevada is another nailbiter that goes Trump’s way in this sample, though he falls short of majority support. He leads Harris 43% to 42%, with 7% saying they don’t know yet whom they’ll back, 6% behind Kennedy and 3% backing alternative candidates. The MOE: +/- 3.87%
Finally, North Carolina is also in the Trump column. The former president has a relatively robust 47% to 44% lead, with 5% undecided, 2% backing Kennedy and 1% looking at other options. The Tar Heel State has a +/- 3.69% MOE.
6Vice President Kamala Harris taking the stage on the first day of the 2024 Democratic National Convention with President Biden and second gentleman Doug Emhoff.Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Harris has command in four states, including a 47% to 40% lead in Minnesota, suggesting favorite-son Gov. Tim Walz is paying off as running mate, as she’s up 2 points from last week’s poll. Of interest here: 9% of voters aren’t committing to either candidate. The MOE is +/- 4.18%.
New Mexico is also in the veep’s column, as she has 47% support against 41% for Trump. Kennedy, at 6%, is a factor here in the Land of Enchantment, while 4% of voters aren’t committed. This state has a 4.1% MOE.
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Harris also leads in Pennsylvania (46% to 44% for Trump) and Wisconsin (48% to 44%). Kennedy is at 4% and 3%, respectively, in these states, while 5% of Pennsylvanians and 3% of Wisconsinites don’t know whom they’ll support. MOEs are 3.18% in the Keystone State and 4.18% in the Badger State.
6Harris has a 2% lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, according to recent polling.Anadolu via Getty Images
Finally, both candidates sit at 46% in Georgia, where 5% don’t know whom they’ll back and 3% are divided among Kennedy and other candidates.
The most encouraging trend for Trumpers: “In 9 of the 10 states, more 2020 Biden voters intend to vote for Donald Trump than 2020 Trump voters intend to vote for Kamala Harris.”
Yet despite that favorable framing, trouble looms for the GOP in Senate races in these states and a high-profile gubernatorial battle in North Carolina.
6Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake speaking at a Trump campaign event in Chandler on Aug. 8, 2024. Lake is trailing Democrat Ruben Gallego in the race, according to recent polls.Vanessa Abbitt/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
In Arizona, Kari Lake trails Democrat Ruben Gallego, 44% to 39%. The former newscaster is running 5 points behind the former president there.
Nevada Republican Sam Brown also lags behind incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen, with 37% against her 41%. Brown is performing 6 points worse than Trump.
New Mexico’s Nella Domenici trails incumbent Martin Heinrich, 42% to 36%. Both candidates are 5 points behind the presidential ticket here.
6Nevada GOP Senate candidate Sam Brown on stage with vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance at a rally in Henderson on July 30, 2024.Photo by WADE VANDERVORT/AFP via Getty Images
6Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick at a Trump rally in Wilkes-Barre on Aug. 17, 2024.AP Photo/Laurence Kesterson
David McCormick is 8 points behind incumbent Bob Casey Jr., 44% to 36%, in Pennsylvania’s Senate race. He’s also 8 points below Trump’s number.
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In North Carolina, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is 6 points behind Democrat Josh Stein (45% to 39%) in the race for governor, suggesting the GOP may drop this pickup opportunity.
These polls were conducted Aug. 12 through Aug. 15, and the next survey from this outfit likely will include a post-convention bounce for Harris. Whether that’s another sugar high or something more sustainable will be litigated after Labor Day, when Americans typically get more serious about November elections.
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