United States elections 2024

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Harris, Trump locked in tight race in 7 swing states: Poll​

by Caroline Vakil - 08/29/24 6:00 AM ET
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Vice President Harris and former President Trump are locked in a tight race across seven battleground states as the race for the White House enters the home stretch, according to new polling released on Thursday.

The new survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill found Harris edging out Trump in Georgia (49 percent to 48 percent), Michigan (50 percent to 47 percent) and Nevada (49 percent to 48 percent).

Meanwhile, the polling shows Trump slightly ahead in Arizona (50 percent to 47 percent), North Carolina (49 percent to 48 percent) and Wisconsin (49 percent to 48 percent).

In Pennsylvania, the two are tied at 48 percent each.

In all cases, the poll numbers fall within the margin of error, meaning the race is essentially tied in each of the swing states.


“The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state’s margin of error,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement.

Harris leads Trump among independent voters in six out of the seven states polled. The one exception is Nevada, where Trump leads Harris among independents.

Trump does slightly better with female voters in Arizona. But Harris performs better than the former president with women in the other six battleground states. Harris also fares better with voters under 30 years old in every swing state.

Trump, meanwhile, performs better across the seven states with male voters.

“There is also a stark gender divide, similar to that of 2020,” Kimball said. “In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women, however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020 according to exit polling.”

The polling shows how Democrats’ fortunes have rapidly changed more than a month since President Biden withdrew from the presidential race. Democrats fretted about their viability in states like Michigan with Biden at the top, but with Harris as the nominee those states appear more competitive again.

Harris is riding a wave of momentum following the Democratic National Convention, which was held last week in Chicago, and observers are watching closely to see if that translate to better poll numbers for her. But the Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey suggests that even with the newfound energy at the top of the Democratic ticket, the race for the White House is still a nailbiter.

An aggregate of national surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows Harris leading Trump roughly 50 percent to 45 percent.

The new polling also reinforced the strength of down-ballot Democrats, a trend seen in previous surveys.

In Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all of which are holding competitive Senate races this year — the Democratic Senate candidates are leading their GOP rivals.

In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) leads Republican Kari Lake 49 percent to 42 percent. In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) is leading Republican Mike Rogers 47 to 41 percent. In Nevada, incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is ahead of GOP rival Sam Brown, 50 to 40 percent. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey (D) leads David McCormick 48 to 44 percent. And in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) edges out Eric Hovde, 49 to 48 percent.

Meanwhile, in the North Carolina gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Stein leads GOP Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, 47 to 41 percent.

The polling from Emerson College Polling and The Hill was conducted between Aug. 26 and Aug. 28. In Arizona, 720 likely voters were polled with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. In Michigan and Georgia, 800 likely voters were polled in each state, with a margin of error for each of 3.4 percentage points. In Pennsylvania, 950 likely voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. In Nevada, 1,168 likely voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points; 775 likely voters were polled in North Carolina with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. In Wisconsin, 850 likely voters were polled, with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
 

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Gov. Kemp speaks out after Trump flips and praises former nemesis: 'Small distraction' in the past​

Georgia governor calls Trump's recent anti-Kemp tirade at Atlanta rally a 'dustup from 2 or 3 weeks ago'​

By Paul Steinhauser Fox News
Published August 27, 2024 6:11pm EDT | Updated August 28, 2024 12:04pm EDT
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Former President Trump, Georgia Gov Kemp appear to make amends

EXCLUSIVE — Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp insists "the road to the White House is going to run through Georgia" and said he is focused on the future, downplaying former President Donald Trump's tirade against him earlier this month as a "small distraction that’s in the past."

Kemp, the popular two-term conservative governor of the crucial southeastern battleground state, emphasized in an exclusive national interview with Fox News Digital that "there’s no path for former President Trump to win or any Republican … to get to 270 [electoral votes] without Georgia."

Kemp, interviewed Tuesday on the eve of Vice President Harris' two-day bus swing through Georgia, said his state "should be one that we win if we have all the mechanics that we need. And I’m working hard to help provide those in a lot of ways and turn the Republican vote out."

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"It’s my belief that we cannot afford four more years of [President] Joe Biden and Kamala Harris or Kamala Harris and [Minnesota Gov.] Tim Walz, which I think would probably be worse than even Biden and Harris were," Kemp said.

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Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp on Trump's change of tune

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia is interviewed by Fox News Digital on June 3, 2024, in Chalmette, La. (Fox News/Paul Steinhauser)
The governor was interviewed a couple of days after Trump praised Kemp in a social media post "for all of your help and support in Georgia, where a win is so important to the success of our Party and, most importantly, our Country."

"I look forward to working with you, your team, and all of my friends in Georgia to help MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!" the Republican presidential nominee added.

The comments from Trump were a major change of tune when it comes to Georgia's governor.

For two years after his 2020 election defeat to President Biden, which included a razor-thin loss in Georgia, Trump attacked Kemp for failing to overturn the election results in his state.

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Trump toned down the criticism in 2022 after Kemp crushed Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue in the state's GOP gubernatorial primary.

Earlier this month, Trump went on a 10-minute tirade against Kemp at a rally in Atlanta just blocks from the Georgia State Capitol. Trump blamed the governor not only for failing to overturn the 2020 vote count but also for not stopping a county prosecutor from indicting the former president for his attempts to reverse the results.

former President Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, during a campaign rally at Georgia State University in Atlanta on Aug. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

"He’s a bad guy. He’s a disloyal guy. And he’s a very average governor," Trump said. "Little Brian. Little Brian Kemp. Bad guy."

Kemp told Fox News, "I’m not sure exactly what happened going into the rally. I’ve seen a lot of different stories and people’s explanations of what happened."

"To me, that was a small distraction that’s in the past," Kemp added.

And Kemp said Republicans "need to stay focused on the future. … We need to be telling people why they should vote for us, what we’re going to do to make things better than they are right now. And there’s a host of issues that I think you could contrast Kamala Harris and her record.

"To me, that’s what we need to stay focused on, not some dustup from two or three weeks ago."

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Asked about Trump's reversal last Thursday, Kemp said, "You have to ask him those questions. I’ve been consistent for really the last couple of years that I was going to support the ticket, whoever our nominee was, in Georgia. That’s exactly what I’m doing, what I have been doing."

But Trump’s statement came moments after Kemp appeared on Fox News Channel and reiterated to host Sean Hannity that "we need to send Donald Trump back to the White House."

Asked Tuesday if he and Trump had connected since last week, Kemp said, "I haven’t talked to him."

When DNC ‘sugar high’ subsides, people will take a closer look at reality: KempVideo
"I’ve talked to a lot of other folks, and I think everybody has a good understanding of where everybody is and understands my position has not changed," Kemp said. "I have been supporting him and the whole ticket in Georgia, and I'm still doing that and will continue to do that through November."

Republican strategists agree that to recapture Georgia, Trump will need assistance from Kemp's well-oiled and funded political machine to turn out GOP voters.

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Kemp said he's "working hard" to "turn the Republican vote out and make sure that we win this state in November."

"How that looks and how that goes will really be up to kind of how things play out and what states are in play and who’s going where and when," Kemp added.

"I’ve got other responsibilities in my duties with the Republican Governors Association, traveling around the country helping to raise money to win North Carolina and hold New Hampshire in our column and also helping our legislative races here."

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Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, right, joins fellow GOP governors at a Republican Governors Association news conference at an oil refinery in Chalmette, La., on June 3, 2024. (Fox News/Paul Steinhauser)
Kemp also acknowledged that he's asked for legal advice from the state attorney general on whether he can remove from the state election board three conservative members on the five-person panel who championed and passed a controversial set of new rules that mandate extra requirements for county election boards to certify their results.

"We’ve asked the attorney general for an opinion on that on whether this would be an official complaint, if you will, and I’m waiting to hear back. So, I really wouldn’t be able to comment too much on that since we’re asking for legal advice," Kemp told Fox News.


Trump, who has been charged in Fulton County, Georgia, with election interference, praised the three members for pushing for the new rules and called them "pit bulls fighting for honesty, transparency and victory."

Georgia Democrats call the new rules a "concerted effort to subvert democracy" and have challenged them, arguing they could delay election certification and spark major disputes.



Max Flugrath, a spokesman for Fair Fight, a Georgia-based voting rights organization founded by 2018 and 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, argued that "Gov. Kemp is trying to pass the buck on protecting the integrity of Georgia elections from the illegal actions of the Election Board members."

"Georgia law does not state what would be a considered a formal complaint in this instance — Kemp is quibbling with language instead of defending Georgia's voters," Flugrath claimed.
 

Kemp to participate in Georgia fundraiser for Trump​

by Filip Timotija - 08/28/24 4:09 PM ET
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Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp speaks in the spin room before a presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump in Atlanta, Thursday, June 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Nathan Ellgren)
Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is slated to participate in a Georgia fundraiser for former President Trump, two sources confirmed to The Hill, bringing in campaign funds for the GOP presidential nominee as the two look to tone down their lengthy feud.

Kemp, who will appear alongside Georgia’s first lady Marty Kemp, will co-headline the Thursday event in Atlanta with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a person associated with the Pompeo and person familiar with Trump’s campaign plans told The Hill.


The reception comes as the former president offered praise for Brian Kemp following the governor’s appearance on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show last week. Kemp during that interview said the focus needed to be reelecting Trump.

“We need to send Donald Trump back to the White House,” Kemp said. “We need to retake the Senate. We need to hold the House.”

Following the TV hit, the former president thanked Kemp.

“Thank you to #BrianKempGA for all of your help and support in Georgia, where a win is so important to the success of our Party and, most importantly, our Country,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “I look forward to working with you, your team, and all of my friends in Georgia to help MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

The former president has had a tense relationship with Kemp since the 2020 election, when Trump barely lost Georgia to President Biden.

In the weeks following the defeat, he kept applying pressure on Kemp and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) to challenge the outcome, and their relationship has stayed fractured since.


In 2022, Trump supported Kemp’s primary challenger, but the governor won reelection by a wider margin than in 2018. Kemp told CNN in late June that he did not vote for Trump in the Georgia presidential primary in late May.

Earlier this month, the former president went after Kemp during a rally in Atlanta. The move made some Republicans question why Trump was not focusing more on Vice President Harris, who by that point had ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket.

Georgia will be a key battleground state in the 2024 presidential election. In 2020, Biden won it by fewer than 12,000 votes.


A Decision Desk HQ/The Hill average of polls of the state has Trump leading Harris Harris by almost 3 percentage points.

The Thursday fundraiser is hosted by ex-Trump State Department Counselor Ulrich Brechbuhl, former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) and former ambassadors Ed McMullen and Duke Buchan, according to ABC News, which first reported on the reception.

The Hill has reached out to Kemp’s political operation spokesperson for comment.
 

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