United States elections 2024

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Nikki Haley Turns to Michigan, Where She Faces Another Uphill Climb​


Ms. Haley has rallies planned in Detroit and Grand Rapids ahead of G.O.P. contests that begin Tuesday.


Nikki Haley grasping the hand of a supporter with both of her hands as she talks to a group of people at her election night watch party.

Nikki Haley with supporters after her election night speech on Saturday in South Carolina.Credit...Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

Jazmine Ulloa
By Jazmine Ulloa
Jazmine Ulloa has been reporting on Nikki Haley’s campaign since the summer of 2023.
  • Feb. 25, 2024 Updated 1:31 p.m. ET

Michigan is a general election battleground, and Nikki Haley, defeated again by former President Donald J. Trump in South Carolina, has for months made a general election pitch.
Mr. Trump can’t win in November, she has argued, and will most likely say so again on Sunday at her rally in Detroit. Mr. Trump narrowly lost Michigan to Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020 after a presidential term alienating independents and suburban women, the segments of the electorate that make up a strong part of Ms. Haley’s small but not insignificant base. And her campaign has counted the state as one of more than a dozen that are critical to her path to the nomination because they have primaries not limited to registered Republicans.
But the difficulty for Ms. Haley in Michigan, which holds its primary on Tuesday, is similar to that in the early-voting states: She’s running for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination, and the base is sticking with him. The strength she has shown with more moderate voters, even Democrats, has not been enough to overcome his significant advantage.
Richard Czuba, an independent pollster in Lansing, Mich., said the state had a long history of Republican and Democratic voters crossing over in presidential primaries to upend contests and send a message. But he predicted little chance of that for Ms. Haley. The results of the state’s Republican primary this year are seemingly such a foregone conclusion, mostly thanks to Mr. Trump’s dominance, that his polling firm had even stopped bothering to survey voters, he added.

“There is no race,” he said.
Ms. Haley’s campaign only began running its first television advertisements in the state last week, targeting the Detroit area with part of what her officials said was a half-million-dollar buy in the state. Her allied super PAC reported spending a further half a million for ads in the Michigan market as of Saturday, after her loss in South Carolina, according to federal filings.
Ms. Haley is arriving in the state with little to no momentum, even as she has continued to amass donations. She is expected to hold more fund-raisers across the country this week, after another scheduled rally on Monday in Grand Rapids.

Her loss in South Carolina on Saturday was her first ever in her home state, where she rose to become its first female governor. Though she outperformed the polls there, drawing just below 40 percent of the vote, she still did not meet her own benchmark: She did not do better than the 43 percent support she received in New Hampshire in January. In her election night speech and in a video released Sunday, pledging to keep up the fight, Ms. Haley argued the percentages were about the same, casting herself as the voice for the people seeking an alternative to a Trump-Biden rematch.
Polls in the states she is expected to visit this week, including Colorado, Minnesota, North Carolina, Utah and Virginia, show her lagging far behind Mr. Trump.
Hours before the last ballots were cast in South Carolina, Ms. Haley appeared to suggest a winding down could be in sight.

“We’re going to keep going all the way through Super Tuesday,” she told reporters in Kiawah Island, where she voted with her family at a polling station inside a gated community near her home. “That’s as far as I’ve thought in terms of going forward.”

Image
Two Haley supporters at a small high table raise their arms and cheer. They are in a crowd of people in a banquet hall or ballroom.

Ms. Haley said she would continue her campaign despite the loss in her home state.Credit...Nicole Craine for The New York Times

Michigan will award only 16 of 55 delegates based on the results of its primary on Tuesday. The rest will be allotted at its convention on March 2 in a process likely to advantage Mr. Trump.
The state will make for an interesting backdrop. Mr. Trump focused on the voting in Michigan in his efforts to subvert the 2020 election. He won the state by nearly 11,000 votes in 2016, and lost it to Mr. Biden by more than 150,000 votes in his 2020 re-election bid. Mr. Trump has since maintained a chokehold on the state’s Republican Party, as it has fallen into a political maelstrom of warring factions.
Dennis Darnoi, a longtime Republican strategist in Michigan, also rejected the idea that Democrats and left-leaning independents could help Ms. Haley when they have their own competitive contest. Liberal groups have been calling for a protest vote against President Biden over his response to the war between Israel and Hamas. Democratic supporters of the president have been pushing back.

Mr. Darnoi recalled the Haley campaign initially appeared to be sending many texts to the state’s prospective voters but that the communication had dropped off and become intermittent. Her ground game has been “fairly nonexistent,” he said.
“The Michigan primary voter is very supportive of Donald Trump. They are very excited to vote for him,” Mr. Darnoi said, adding that there did not seem to be a lane for anyone else.
 

Michigan governor says not voting for Biden over Gaza war ‘supports second Trump term’​


Gretchen Whitmer responds to calls by some Democrats to vote ‘uncommitted’ in Michigan’s primary on Tuesday

Sam Levine in New York
Sun 25 Feb 2024 18.15 GMT

Gretchen Whitmer, the Michigan governor, pushed back on calls to not vote for Joe Biden over his handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict, saying on Sunday that could help Trump get re-elected.
“It’s important not to lose sight of the fact that any vote that’s not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term,” she said on Sunday during an interview on CNN’s State of the Union. “A second Trump term would be devastating. Not just on fundamental rights, not just on our democracy here at home, but also when it comes to foreign policy. This was a man who promoted a Muslim ban.”

Whitmer, who is a co-chair of Biden’s 2024 campaign, also said she wasn’t sure what to expect when it came to the protest vote.

Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat who is the only Palestinian-American serving in Congress, urged Democrats last week to vote “uncommitted” in Michigan’s 27 February primary.
“We don’t want a country that supports war and bombs and destruction. We want to support life. We want to stand up for every single life killed in Gaza … This is the way you can raise our voices. Don’t make us even more invisible. Right now, we feel completely neglected and just unseen by our government,” she said in a video posted to her Twitter account. “If you want us to be louder, then come here and vote uncommitted.”
Tlaib’s sister, Layla Elabed, is the campaign manager for Listen to Michigan, the group that has been leading the effort to get people to vote uncommitted. The group has the support of 30 elected officials across south-east Michigan, including Abdullah Hammoud, the mayor of Dearborn, which has a large Arab American population.
“Biden must earn our vote through a dramatic change in policy,” the group says on its website. “President Biden has been a successful candidate in the past by representing a broad coalition, but right now he’s not representing the vast majority of Democrats who want a ceasefire and an end to his funding of Israel’s war in Gaza.”

While Biden will easily win the Democratic primary there, Michigan is a key swing state in the November general election. Biden will need strong support of voters who are a part of his Democratic base in addition to support from more moderate voters to win.
Acknowledging that reality, Biden dispatched top aides to Dearborn to meet with leaders there earlier this month. During that meeting, Jon Finer, a deputy national security adviser, acknowledged errors in how the administration had responded.
“We are very well aware that we have missteps in the course of responding to this crisis since October 7,” he said, according to a recording of the meeting obtained by the New York Times. “We have left a very damaging impression based on what has been a wholly inadequate public accounting for how much the president, the administration and the country values the lives of Palestinians. And that began, frankly, pretty early in the conflict.”
 

Trump pivots to race against Biden after crushing Haley in South CarolinaEx-president has unrivalled dominance of his party but there are fresh questions about his electabilityThe former president appears to be on a glide path to the Republican nomination for the White House, after decisive victories in all four early voting states. © Win McNamee/Getty ImagesTrump pivots to race against Biden after crushing Haley in South Carolina on x (opens in a new window)Trump pivots to race against Biden after crushing Haley in South Carolina on facebook (opens in a new window)Trump pivots to race against Biden after crushing Haley in South Carolina on linkedin (opens in a new window)Savecurrent progress 100%Lauren Fedor in Charleston, South Carolina 11 HOURS AGO96Print this pageUnlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.Donald Trump tightened his grip on the Republican presidential nomination this weekend with a crushing 20-point victory over Nikki Haley in her home state that raised fresh questions about how much longer she can stay in the race.However, the margin of Trump’s victory was smaller than opinion polls and many pundits had predicted, giving credence to Haley’s argument that the former president might struggle to win in a general election in November.The Associated Press called the race for Trump almost immediately after the polls closed in South Carolina on Saturday evening. Trump won with around 60 per cent of the vote, compared to Haley on about 40 per cent.Minutes after the race was called, Trump took to the stage at an election night party in Columbia, the state’s capital, to declare that he was shifting his focus to the general election, when he is likely to face Joe Biden. Trump made no mention of Haley and insisted he had “never seen the Republican party so unified” behind him.The next morning, the local newspaper in Charleston pulled no punches with a front page riffing on Haley’s tagline from her two terms as governor: “It’s a great day in South Carolina.” Sunday’s headline for the Post and Courier read: “It’s a great day in South Carolina for Trump.”“The fact that Haley lost by a solid margin shows that the Republican party of South Carolina is very much mirroring the Republican party nationally,” said Scott Huffmon, a political-science professor at Winthrop University, in Rock Hill, South Carolina.“It has become the party of Donald Trump.”To be sure, Trump handed Haley a blistering defeat on Saturday in a state where she was once a popular figure before leaving the governor’s mansion to become Trump’s ambassador to the UN in 2017. The former president now appears on a glide path to the Republican nomination for the White House, after decisive victories in all four early voting states.Opinion polls suggest he will similarly dominate on Super Tuesday on March 5, when over a dozen more states will hold primary contests and award hundreds of delegates needed for Trump to shore up the nomination ahead of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, this summer.Republican US presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks to supporters in Charleston on the night of the primary © Erik S Lesser/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock“He is in position given his lead nationally to stack up a lot of the delegates he needs on Super Tuesday,” said Robert Oldendick, a political-science professor at the University of South Carolina. “The race is effectively over. Unless there is some totally unforeseen event, [Haley] can’t win the Republican nomination.”But the results in South Carolina also laid bare just how many voters are dissatisfied with the former president, who is facing four separate criminal trials as he seeks another four years in the White House. AP VoteCast found that one in five Republican primary voters say they will not vote for Trump in November.“Today, in South Carolina, we’re getting around 40 per cent of the vote. That’s about what we got in New Hampshire, too,” Haley told supporters at her own election night party in Charleston on Saturday.“I’m an accountant. I know 40 per cent is not 50 per cent. But I also know 40 per cent is not some tiny group. There are huge numbers of voters in our Republican primaries who are saying they want an alternative.”Haley, who outraised Trump in January and has become popular with deep-pocketed donors looking for an alternative to the former president, has vowed to fight on through Super Tuesday.Her campaign this week announced a “seven-figure” purchase of television advertisements to run in those states, and has planned a gruelling schedule of public events across the country for the next week and a half.Haley will also hold 10 private fundraisers for wealthy donors over the course of the next seven days, according to an email sent by her campaign to donors on Saturday night and seen by the Financial Times.“We have a country to save, and Nikki isn’t going anywhere,” the email said. “So buckle up — the sprint to Super Tuesday is going to be a wild ride.”Still, voters in South Carolina, including those who voted for Haley on Saturday, were sceptical of her staying power.At one polling station in Mount Pleasant, a Charleston suburb, Elizabeth Warren — no relation to the Democratic US senator — said she had voted for Biden in 2020 and would vote for him again in November in a likely match-up with Trump. But she was supporting Haley in the Republican primary on Saturday because “I will do anything to keep Trump off the ballot.”When asked whether she thought Haley could beat Trump, Warren replied: “No, sadly I don’t. I hope so, but no.”One 39-year-old man who voted for Haley in Mount Pleasant declined to give his name but described himself as a “conservative” Republican who did not believe Trump was a good “role model” for his two young daughters.When asked whether he thought Haley could stop Trump, however, he replied: “No, not at all.”“I think that the writing is on the wall, but I would be, in my opinion, a bad citizen if I were not at least exercising my privilege to vote,” he added.
 
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