United States elections 2024
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Yommie
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September 2024 National Poll: Harris 49%, Trump 47% - Emerson Polling
A new Emerson College Polling national survey finds Vice President Kamala Harris with 49% support,…Full Release & Results
emersoncollegepolling.com
September 2024 National Poll: Harris 49%, Trump 47%
September 5th, 2024Home Polls September 2024 National Poll: Harris 49%, Trump 47%
A new Emerson College Polling national survey finds Vice President Kamala Harris with 49% support, and former President Donald Trump with 47% support among likely US voters. Three percent are undecided, and 1% plan to vote for someone else. In the last week of August in the 2020 Election, the Emerson national poll found President Biden similarly ahead of Trump by two points, 49% to 47%.
“The 2024 presidential race currently mirrors 2020, with the Democratic lead narrowing from four points to two in national polls,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In 2020, Biden re-established his four-point lead in late September ahead of the first debate; now, we’ll see what impact the debate has on the trajectory of this race.”
“Suburban voters are split overall: 48% support Harris and 47% Trump,” Kimball said. “Within this lies a gender divide, suburban men breaking for Trump by 17 points, 57% to 40%, and suburban women breaking for Harris by 18 points, 56% to 38%.”
On the generic congressional ballot, 48% support the Democratic candidate while 44% support the Republican candidate.
Fifty-one percent have a favorable view of Kamala Harris, while 49% have an unfavorable view of the Vice President. Trump’s favorability is at 47%, while 53% have an unfavorable view of him.
Forty-one percent approve of the job President Biden is doing in office, while 53% disapprove of the job he is doing. Since mid-August, Biden’s approval has improved by two points, from 39% to 41%.
Last week on X, Mark Cuban asked his followers, “Whose persona and character would you like to see young children grow up to have?” When the question was asked in a scientific poll, voters showed a preference for Harris’ character and persona over Trump’s, 54% to 46%.
The economy remains the top issue to voters, at 43%, followed by immigration (15%), threats to democracy (14%), abortion access (7%), healthcare (6%), crime (4%), and housing affordability (3%).
- Those who say the economy is the top issue facing the country break for Trump, 62% to 36%, as well as immigration, 84% to 13%. Those who say threats to democracy break for Harris, 84% to 12%, along with housing and abortion.
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted September 3-4, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polls, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (both lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters who were pre-matched to L2 voter file data, provided by Rep Data. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.
Yommie
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Pennsylvania emerges as pivotal Harris-Trump battleground
Pennsylvania is shaping up as a challenge for Vice President Harris in the presidential race, as a new CNN poll shows her tied with former President Trump in the state and badly trailing him a…
thehill.com
Pennsylvania emerges as pivotal Harris-Trump battleground
BY ALEXANDER BOLTON - 09/05/24 6:00 AM ETPennsylvania is shaping up as a challenge for Vice President Harris in the presidential race, as a new CNN poll shows her tied with former President Trump in the state and badly trailing him among male voters.
Democrats are cautiously optimistic Harris could win Pennsylvania despite her problems with white working-class voters, but they acknowledge victory will depend on her ability to get young voters and minority voters to cast ballots in large numbers.
While polls have shown Harris ahead in other “blue wall” states like Michigan and Wisconsin, the CNN poll showed her tied with Trump — at 47 percent — for Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes.
The biggest red flag for Harris is that she’s trailing Trump by 15 percentage points among men.
Berwood Yost, the director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll, said “obviously Pennsylvania’s the biggest prize.”
“And I think it’s the one state Harris really needs to have to make her path to the presidency viable,” he said.
“It’s certainly shaping up to be really close right now. Before Biden dropped out, it was clearly the state that was moving away from Democrats and she certainly righted the ship,” he added.
“Part of what makes Pennsylvania a bit more difficult than other places — and by difficult, we mean competitive — is the fact that there are a sort of range of ideologies across the state,” Yost said, noting the liberal bent of Philadelphia compared to the conservative culture of rural areas.
The CNN survey of likely male voters in Pennsylvania showed Trump with 55 percent support and Harris with 40 percent support. It also showed Harris leading Trump among likely female voters 53 percent to 42 percent.
But unlike in Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris’s advantage with women isn’t big enough in Pennsylvania to make up for her disadvantage among men, according to the CNN survey.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris’s advantage with likely female voters is bigger than Trump’s advantage with likely male voters.
In Michigan, Harris is beating Trump among likely female voters 54 percent to 38 percent, while Trump is leading among likely male voters 50 percent to 42 percent.
And Harris is dominating Trump among likely female voters in Wisconsin, leading Trump 55 percent to 38 percent among those voters. Trump, meanwhile, leads Harris among likely male voters 52 percent to 43 percent.
The CNN poll showed Harris leading Trump 48 percent to 43 percent in Michigan and beating Trump in Wisconsin 50 percent to 44 percent.
Jim McLaughlin, a Republican pollster who has done work for Trump, said “it’s definitely Pennsylvania” where Trump has the best chance of winning a blue wall state.
“It’s the state she and Biden has been to the most,” he said. “The reason they’ve been there a lot is the map doesn’t add up for her without winning Pennsylvania. She’s got to win Pennsylvania, and right now I’d rather be us than them in Pennsylvania.”
McLaughlin cited Trump’s big lead among likely male voters as a key data point in the new CNN poll.
“Donald Trump is up with men by 15,” he said. “Kamala is only up with women 53 to 42.
“She’s got trouble with men. She’s got trouble with working-class men, and she’s got trouble with senior men.”
Democratic strategists, however, counter that Harris can overcome Trump’s lead with those demographic groups by running up her leads with young voters, women and Black and Hispanic voters.
Harris is planning to spend five days in Pennsylvania before her debate with Trump in Philadelphia on Tuesday.
One Democratic strategist said one of Harris’s biggest challenges will be to get younger voters who support her to actually vote. The source said Harris’s decision to bring David Plouffe, former President Obama’s campaign manager, onto her political team appears designed to convert young people’s support into real votes.
“To win in Pennsylvania, you need a strong base of support in the Philadelphia metro area and able to do well in Allegheny County and carry that by a wide margin,” the source said, referring to the county that encompasses Pittsburgh.
President Biden carried Allegheny County, 59 percent to 39 percent, in 2020. Hillary Clinton carried the crucial county by 16 points in 2016, when she lost Pennsylvania to Trump.
A loss in the Keystone State would put pressure on either Harris or Trump to sweep the other swing states in the race.
“There are parts of the state between Allegheny County and Philadelphia that are just not Democratic friendly,” the Democratic strategist warned, emphasizing the importance of winning the urban and suburban precincts by big margins.
Republicans don’t view Pennsylvania as much of a must-win state for themselves as North Carolina or Georgia, for example, given Pennsylvania’s history of voting for Democrats in every presidential election after 1988, except 2016.
Pennsylvania had been a strong state for Biden, and Democrats acknowledge Harris doesn’t have the same strong relationships in the state.
One Democratic strategist based in Pennsylvania told The Hill in July that Harris didn’t have the kind of special relationship with Pennsylvania voters that Biden, who was born in Scranton, did.
“What I find surprising is how few relationships she has here,” the strategist said. “California is very far away. It’s seen as very foreign culturally.
“Everything I’ve always heard is she doesn’t have that many relationships in Pennsylvania and she hasn’t established any kind of identity here,” the source said. “Obviously, it’s a very big difference with Joe Biden.”
Political strategists say that if Harris loses Pennsylvania, it would put the spotlight on her decision to pick Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), an outspoken progressive, as her running mate instead of Pennsylvania’s popular and more centrist governor, Josh Shapiro.
Yost, the director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College, said Harris took a gamble by picking Walz over Shapiro.
“Frankly, if she doesn’t win the state, that choice is going to be talked about going forward,” he said.
He said Republican county chairs were “afraid” of Shapiro.
“He would have really helped put her over the top being on the ticket,” Yost speculated. “One of the reasons I thought [Shapiro] was a good choice is not just that he’s the most popular politician in Pennsylvania. Her taking him as her running mate [would] signal a moderation in her positions.
“The jury’s still out on whether she can make that case,” he said, referring to the need for Harris to convince moderate voters that she’s not the same candidate who endorsed “Medicare for All” and the Green New Deal before the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.
Harris knows that she needs to appeal to the state’s more moderate voters, and she made a move toward them by backing off her previous support for a fracking ban.
“What I have seen is that we can grow, and we can increase a clean energy economy without banning fracking,” she told CNN’s Dana Bash in her first major news interview since the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Democrats expect Trump and his Republican allies to emphasize the economy, inflation, crime and immigration in a frenzied push for Pennsylvania over the next 60 days.
Harris, meanwhile, will emphasize the Biden administration’s accomplishments in creating jobs, investing in the nation’s infrastructure and addressing gun violence. Her campaign will also put a major emphasis on abortion rights and women’s access to health care.
Yommie
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Trump tops Harris among veterans: Poll
Former President Trump is leading Vice President Harris among veterans, active service members and their families, according to a new poll of the voting bloc. A survey from Change Research, shared …
thehill.com
Trump tops Harris among veterans: Poll
BY MIRANDA NAZZARO - 09/04/24 3:52 PM ET
Former President Trump is leading Vice President Harris among veterans, active service members and their families, according to a new poll of the voting bloc.
A survey from Change Research, shared with The Hill on Wednesday, found Trump is leading Harris 51 percent to 41 percent among veterans and 49 percent to 44 percent among active duty, guardsmen and reservists. The margin was smaller among family members of veterans, with Trump edging out Harris 47 percent to 45 percent.
Semafor was the first to report on the survey.
Pollsters noted the support for Trump from veterans, active-duty members and their family members have all slightly dropped since the 2016 election, shrinking the former president’s margins among each of these groups by at least 9 points. Trump won veterans by 19 percentage points in 2016 but leads by 10 now, while his lead among active service members dropped from 19 points to 5 points and 12 points to 2 points with family members.
When those who voted for Trump at least once but do not plan to this November were asked to explain their choice, 53 percent said his comments, attitudes and policies towards veterans and service members were part of their decision.
Over the years, Trump has maintained strong support from veterans, who often vote in favor of Republicans. At the same time, the former president has also come under fire from this voting bloc on numerous occasions since his first White House run.
He took heat last week following a reported altercation at Arlington National Cemetery involving his staff during his visit to mark the third anniversary of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The former president was joined by some family of the 13 U.S. service members killed in the 2021 Kabul airport attack and said the family asked him to visit and take pictures.
The confrontation reportedly took place when cemetery staff members tried to stop Trump’s campaign team from photographing and filming a solemn area of the cemetery dedicated to those who fought in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
Critics argued he used the graves as a campaign backdrop.
Federal law prohibits political campaign or election-related activists within the cemetery, and the Army last week said an employee was pushed aside by the Trump team when trying to enforce the rules prohibiting political activities on cemetery grounds.
The GOP nominee and his team have pushed back on the claims, calling it a “made up story.”
Pollsters also asked participants to imagine being a team member in combat with Trump. In response, 55 percent said the former president would only look out for himself, while 54 percent said he would “talk a big game but not do much.” Furthermore, 49 percent said he would “crumble under pressure,” and just more than a third predicted he would win a Medal of Valor.
The Change Research poll was conducted Aug. 23-29 among 1,703 veterans, active-duty service members, and family/household members of veterans and service members nationwide. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.
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