United States elections 2024
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Yommie
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Harris, Trump tied in swing states: Poll
Vice President Harris and former President Trump are essentially tied in swing states, according to a new poll of battleground states released on Thursday. The YouGov poll, conducted for the …
thehill.com
Harris, Trump tied in swing states: Poll
BY FILIP TIMOTIJA - 09/05/24 10:29 PM ETVice President Harris and former President Trump are essentially tied in swing states, according to a new poll of battleground states released on Thursday.
The YouGov poll, conducted for the London-based The Times and SAY24, found that Harris led in four swing-states, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania. On the other hand, Trump had the advantage in three, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina. All leads were within the poll’s margin of error.
Harris’s lead in Michigan was five points (48 percent to 43 percent). She led by three points in both Nevada (49 percent to 46 percent) and Wisconsin (47 percent to 44 percent). In Pennsylvania, the lead was one point (46 percent to 45 percent) among registered voters, the poll found.
Trump had a 2-point lead in Arizona, getting 47 percent to Harris’s 45 percent. The ex-president had the same gap in Georgia, garnering 47 percent while the vice president got 45 percent. In North Carolina, the state the former president won in 2020 by less than 2 percent, he received 47 percent support, being slightly ahead of Harris’s 46 percent, according to the survey.
“Even compared to March, a better time for the Biden campaign, Harris is running ahead or even in each state,” said Carl Bialik, the vice-president of data science and U.S. politics editor at YouGov, told The Times. “She is running ahead of, or even with, Biden’s 2020 performance in five of the seven states.”
“In 2020, Biden won six of them and the election,” Bialik added. “If the leads in these states hold up and the remaining states vote the same way they did in 2020, then Kamala Harris would win the electoral college vote by 276 to 262.”
Recent polling from CNN showed that in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, no candidate had a decisive lead. The vice president led 50 percent to 44 percent in Wisconsin. In Michigan, she was up 48 percent to Trump’s 43 percent. The former president had a 5-point lead in Arizona (49 percent to 44 percent).
In The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s aggregate of polls, Harris bests Trump by 4 percent, getting 49.7 percent to the ex-president’s 45.7 percent.
The polling was conducted Aug. 23-Sept. 3. The sample size in Arizona and Wisconsin was 900. It was 800 in Nevada, while in the remaining states, it was 1,000 each. The margin of error was between approximately 3 and 5 percent.
Yommie
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Donald Trump closing the gap on Kamala Harris, new poll shows
Trump and Harris are scheduled to face off in person for their first presidential debate on Tuesday.
www.newsweek.com
Yommie
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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump "dead heat" in swing states: poll
New polling shows that the results in each swing state are within the margin of error.
www.newsweek.com
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump 'Dead Heat' in Swing States: Poll
Today at nullBy Martha McHardy
US News Reporter
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a "dead heat" in the swing states, according to a new poll.
A new poll conducted by Patriot Polling between September 1 and 3 shows that Trump is to flip Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, and keep North Carolina red, while Harris is to narrowly keep Michigan and Wisconsin blue. However, all the results are within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll surveyed around 800 registered voters in each state.
The former president's biggest lead is in North Carolina, where he is 2.5 points ahead of Harris among 804 registered voters, on 50 percent to the vice president's 47.5 percent. Trump won the state in 2020 and 2016. He is also currently predicted to win the state by FiveThirtyEight's forecast model.
He is also in the lead in Arizona and Pennsylvania. The poll shows that he is 1.6 points ahead in Arizona at 48.5 percent to Harris' 46.9 percent. In Pennsylvania, which is most likely to be the tipping point state that will give the Electoral College winner their 270th vote, he is 1.1 points ahead, on 49 percent to Harris' 47.9 percent. His lead is much smaller in Georgia and Nevada, at 0.6 points in the Peach State and 0.2 points in the Silver State. President Joe Biden won all four states in 2020. Trump had won Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia in 2016.
The poll showed that Harris had the lead in Michigan and Wisconsin—both of which the Democrats flipped blue in 2020 after Trump's victories in 2016. Her lead was narrow, at 0.8 points in both Michigan and 0.2 points in Wisconsin.
A split image of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Harris and Trump are in a "dead heat" in several swing states. new polling shows. GETTY IMAGES
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment.
The poll's results differ from those of FiveThirtyEight's forecast model, which shows that the Democrats are predicted to secure victories in five of the seven swing states while Trump is predicted to win in Arizona and North Carolina
In addition, a recent survey conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies with The Telegraph showed that Trump would win four of the swing states, while Harris appeared set to gain Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Nationally, Harris is 3.1 points ahead of Trump, on 47.2 percent to his 44.1 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Although Harris is predicted to win the popular vote, some pollsters forecast that Trump will win the Electoral College.
According to pollster Nate Silver's latest election forecast, as of Wednesday, Trump had a 58.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, about 16 points higher than Harris's 41.6 percent.
Patriot Polling also had Trump winning the Electoral College vote, despite Harris being ahead 1.5 points nationally in the popular vote. But not all pollsters have Harris losing the Electoral College vote in November. FiveThirtyEight's forecast model showed that Harris would win with 285 electoral votes to Trump's 253. RealClearPolitics also had Harris ahead in the Electoral College when toss-up states were removed.
As of Monday, six bookmakers put Trump ahead of Harris—Sky Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill, 888sport, Betfair and Unibet—though the two presidential candidates were tied with Bet365 and Ladbrokes.
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