US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[_Arabia_]

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So more than the 5 officially admitted. As I wrote, according to sources on the ground (Iraqi) and well-informed Arab ones, the number of killed was way bigger than the admitted 32. One just needs to look at the scale of destruction of those terrorist cult headquarters across 7 regions in Iraq. It was no small attack.

Many sources also state that the Iraqi government was part of the operation and that they helped giving locations of terrorists on the ground. In any case you would need intel on the ground for such large scale successful attacks.

Lots of talk of interceptor stockpile shortage. Lockheed should deliver around 700 PAC-3 MSEs this year. They’re building out to 2,000/year by 2030. I hope the Pentagon is telling foreign customers they’ll have to wait until US stocks are sufficiently replenished.

Biggest issue has been Congress not committing to procurement and production expansion. 2,500 PAC-3s were never enough, especially with the 2 interceptors per 1 missile doctrine. It seems the Pentagon finally gets it, but it will take 5 years to get to where we need to be on production.

A lot of interceptions in KSA (albeit not targeted much) and the smaller GCC states, are done by locally made (in the case of KSA and UAE) suicide interceptor drones and Ukrainian imported suicide interceptor drones. Which are now being produced (1 defense firm in KSA produces 1000 of them each month now) on a massive scale and they are very cheap.

The Sky Chase: How Saudi Arabia’s “Shaheen X” Is Changing The Drone Game

https://lovin.co/riyadh/en/news/the-sky-chase-how-saudi-arabias-shaheen-x-is-changing-the-drone-game/

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Videos of them in action have already been posted.

This is just the beginning.

 

[F-22Raptor]

So more than the 5 officially admitted. As I wrote, according to sources on the ground (Iraqi) and well-informed Arab ones, the number of killed was way bigger than the admitted 32. One just needs to look at the scale of destruction of those terrorist cult headquarters across 7 regions in Iraq. It was no small attack.

Many sources also state that the Iraqi government was part of the operation and that they helped giving locations of terrorists on the ground. In any case you would need intel on the ground for such large scale successful attacks.


A lot of interceptions in KSA (albeit not targeted much) and the smaller GCC states, are done by locally made (in the case of KSA and UAE) suicide interceptor drones and Ukrainian imported suicide interceptor drones. Which are now being produced (1 defense firm in KSA produces 1000 of them each month now) on a massive scale and they are very cheap.

The Sky Chase: How Saudi Arabia’s “Shaheen X” Is Changing The Drone Game

https://lovin.co/riyadh/en/news/the-sky-chase-how-saudi-arabias-shaheen-x-is-changing-the-drone-game/

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Videos of them in action have already been posted.

This is just the beginning.

Irans stockpile issues are even worse. 1,500 missiles left, with most of their production capacity destroyed. Their volume of fire dropped to 5–10 missiles per day. Even at 10 missiles a day, their stock is gone by the end of the year. It’s why they can’t escalate against US bases or Israel.

 

[F-22Raptor]

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[F-22Raptor]

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[_Arabia_]

Irans stockpile issues are even worse. 1,500 missiles left, with most of their production capacity destroyed. Their volume of fire dropped to 5–10 missiles per day. Even at 10 missiles a day, their stock is gone by the end of the year. It’s why they can’t escalate against US bases or Israel.

The whole fear of escalation due to regional oil and gas infrastructure being hit - is also vastly overstated.

All of Kuwait's oil and gas wells and infrastructure was set ablaze by Saddam's Iraq during the First Gulf War. Small Kuwait is still standing. Iranian drones and missiles cannot even remotely cause the same damage as back then.

In return their entire oil and gas infrastructure will be utterly destroyed with no way for them to rebuild it again financially. That will mean regime collapse for them very quickly. More so when all of their oil and gas is located in a very small part of Iran (Ahwaz/Khuzestan), half of which is inhabited by Arabs. Kharg island (tiny island) is their main oil and gas processing hub. If I am not wrong 90-95% of it is being exported and processed from that tiny island.

The North Fars gas field (that they share with Qatar), is also incredibly easy to destroy.

Just 2 targets alone and their entire economy and regime collapses within weeks.

Either that or nobody in the region is really interested in any regime change in Iran and prefers a weakened, impoverished and sanctioned Iran.

The ones ruling Iran prefer it that way as well, I believe, so they can continue to use Iran as a personal piggy bank while many of their relatives live in the West or abroad in the region.

EDIT: A major regional war will also make it easier for KSA to permanently annex those small GCC states that for 95-99% of recorded history belonged to ancient civilizations, cultures, empires, caliphates, kingdoms, sultanates, emirates, imamates, sheikdoms etc. based in modern-day KSA (Arabia) or ruled by people from modern-day KSA.

That would be an added bonus but I highly doubt that the US or anyone else would be interested in that. The US started the largest troop deployment since WW2 in Kuwait due to such exact behavior (Saddam's invasion of Kuwait).