US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[mythbuster]

Winning is not a matter of permission in war. Both sides will want to win, and both sides will try their best. Let us wait and see how it all ends.

Writing is on the wall , you may choose to ignore it and indulge yourself in the semantics of matter of permission or what not.

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

Facts are something you can prove with data and information; just saying stuff does not mean it is true. I had shown you the data that only 12% of worldwide money settlement is for Energy (Which is not just gas and oil), and I had shown you the daily money value that changes hands in said settlement scheme is 5 trillion dollars. I can show you stuff, but I can't read it for you.

There are several ways to raise funds for any type of capitalisation, oil and gas investment is one of them and probably a perferred one with OPEC, however, the world biggest inverter is not in OPEC and it's the US and China, US own petrol dollar, and China is not a oil production country, Petrol Dollar it's NOT the only investment tool, and it's NOT the most usual way because it's very hard to sell gas and oil to customers directly and there are a lot of re-investment involved in oil and gas industry, compare to other commodity market.

And that is if we only base the capital solution on the commodity.

And finally, this is seriously going off topic here.

What you're doing here is called intellectually dishonesty. Your proof is absolute numbers moving through SWIFT. When you know that no one is mandated to do any trade in dollars but they are mandated to buy oil and gas in dollars. Which is what OPEC does... it creates demand for dollars that necessitates the secondary demand... those dollars have to be not only spent in international trade but through financial vehicles worldwide.

All you had to do was search each of my statements and I wouldn't do that for you and it is upon the reader to verify the veracity of your claims against mine. I gave you an example of Iraqi oil... a country that under Sadsam wanted to sell its resources in Euro back then... it's sale of oil ends up in NY Fed! Which literally is an infringement on Iraqi sovereignty. But that isn't all every single one that dare do it got the same treatment... again for the wise reader to verify that as well including Iran that now encourages petro yuan and engages in crypto as did Venezuela to go around SWIFT, and therefore sanctions.
Finally if all of global oil and gas switches from dollar to any other currency. Guess what is going to happen? You will not need dollars, recycle them, buy dollar bonds and assets and US doesn't simply produce enough to transact all the cash back from countries holding them, nor able to pay interest without monetizing them. The liquidity in the market is net result of all the demand energy markets generate. In an electrified economy US will not have a vehicle to mandate countries to keep using dollars especially those who least have it or are not held up in dollar denominated debts.

Anyhow, this is a tangent from ongoing wars in Middleeast that have many other underlying political, geopolitical, trade and religious undercurrents. However, chief among them for the US remains status of dollar as world's sole reserve currency.

Case in point, Iranian energy sales to Pakistan... where a bilateral agreement was benched in fear of sanctions by Pakistan. At its heart is the dollar denominated global trade and use of SWIFT to limit countries access liquidity and settle trade. An Iran freely able to sell its resources in any currency of it's choice would ease buyers into transacting and settling locally over time. Instead Pakistan buys all its energy in USD something it does not or cannot get enough from global trade running a deficit, eroding it's own currency against dollar and have all that dollar never finding it's way back. As OPEC further strengthens the dollar by buying more US bonds, securities and stocks. A net permanent outflow. That is just one such example.

Finally, Petro-dollar is the bedrock that cannot be translated by looking at absolute numbers. And, yes I too do not feel like continuing this back and forth as I have seen people have made up their minds with or without any evidence.

 

[Serendipity]

The problem for IDF and America is that they are actually fighting 2 different wars, but with the same country, Iran.

Talked to a friend of mine who now works in the Pentagon about this war. The issue here is the Israeli, and we have 2 different sets of strategic goals. The Israelis want a war in Iran because they want the Iranians to stay out of the ground operation near Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank, and for them to annex more land. Their entire strategy in Iran is basically just to keep them at arm's length, which can be achieved by air power only, by destroying the Iranian support network, infrastructure, and C&C.

For us, this war is about taking out Iranian nuclear capability, taking out Iranian missile capability, and taking out the regime as a secondary bonus, but we can't do all that with air campaign alone, you can destory the centrifuge or missile design bureau, but unless the overdriving factor behind it was gone as well (ie the regime) they would just rebuild them and have them operational again. Which means the issue we face is, if we are to go and try to achieve what we said as a strategic goal, we need at least a ground-based conventional invasion.

Which means Israel will want to push Hezbollah to fight in a conventional war, ala how we force the Iranians to fight a conventional war with us and systematically destroy their capability, the only way Hezbollah can survive this encounter is to go asymmetrical because if the IDF were to engage in their strategic objective, they would need to do it for a long haul, they can't just do hit and run strike anymore.

For us, depends on the overall war goal, if we are to just go in and take out the nuclear fuel and missile development, which mean leave anything else to the next admin (because it's going to take time to restart, by then Trump will be long gone) to achieve what we that, we don't need to control the entire Iran, all we need is to hit the Iranian at the site that we think they have the stuff. Which means if Iran doesn't want us to do that, they will have to face up conventionally. There won't be a point for Iran to fight asymmetrically against us, but of course, if what we want to do is to do this "permanently," then we will need to push for regime change, which means we are looking at another Afghanistan.

What you seem to suggest is that the real factor deciding when the war ends is when Israel completes its occupation. That it very insightful. That maybe where they are getting the 2 to 4 weeks timeline from now and why IDF is pushing hard despite losses. They have limited time.

 

[VCheng]

Writing is on the wall

Sure it is, but what the writing says is not clearly legible, at least to me, at this time.

This war will end one way or another, but it is not over till its over when the results can be called. Anything else is simply premature IMO.

 

[j_hungary]

What you seem to suggest is that the real factor deciding when the war ends is when Israel completes its occupation. That it very insightful. That maybe where they are getting the 2 to 4 weeks timeline from now and why IDF is pushing hard despite losses. They have limited time.

Well, that's the strategic requirement for Israel, and that's why they really don't care about Iran, as long as what we are doing over there is stopping Iran from getting into what they are doing

As for how long? That really depends on how long we can wait in the Persian Gulf

 

[j_hungary]

What you're doing here is called intellectually dishonesty. Your proof is absolute numbers moving through SWIFT. When you know that no one is mandated to do any trade in dollars but they are mandated to buy oil and gas in dollars. Which is what OPEC does... it creates demand for dollars that necessitates the secondary demand... those dollars have to be not only spent in international trade but through financial vehicles worldwide.

All you had to do was search each of my statements and I wouldn't do that for you and it is upon the reader to verify the veracity of your claims against mine. I gave you an example of Iraqi oil... a country that under Sadsam wanted to sell its resources in Euro back then... it's sale of oil ends up in NY Fed! Which literally is an infringement on Iraqi sovereignty. But that isn't all every single one that dare do it got the same treatment... again for the wise reader to verify that as well including Iran that now encourages petro yuan and engages in crypto as did Venezuela to go around SWIFT, and therefore sanctions.
Finally if all of global oil and gas switches from dollar to any other currency. Guess what is going to happen? You will not need dollars, recycle them, buy dollar bonds and assets and US doesn't simply produce enough to transact all the cash back from countries holding them, nor able to pay interest without monetizing them. The liquidity in the market is net result of all the demand energy markets generate. In an electrified economy US will not have a vehicle to mandate countries to keep using dollars especially those who least have it or are not held up in dollar denominated debts.

Anyhow, this is a tangent from ongoing wars in Middleeast that have many other underlying political, geopolitical, trade and religious undercurrents. However, chief among them for the US remains status of dollar as world's sole reserve currency.

Case in point, Iranian energy sales to Pakistan... where a bilateral agreement was benched in fear of sanctions by Pakistan. At its heart is the dollar denominated global trade and use of SWIFT to limit countries access liquidity and settle trade. An Iran freely able to sell its resources in any currency of it's choice would ease buyers into transacting and settling locally over time. Instead Pakistan buys all its energy in USD something it does not or cannot get enough from global trade running a deficit, eroding it's own currency against dollar and have all that dollar never finding it's way back. As OPEC further strengthens the dollar by buying more US bonds, securities and stocks. A net permanent outflow. That is just one such example.

Finally, Petro-dollar is the bedrock that cannot be translated by looking at absolute numbers. And, yes I too do not feel like continuing this back and forth as I have seen people have made up their minds with or without any evidence.

Again, I have already explained that oil and gas are not really the backbone of any investment from now on. It may start as it was, but anyone with any sort of investment or venture capital background will tell you that's no longer the case, and in fact, a commodity-backed fund is probably the last one you want to go with. If you look at the current Series A option, it's ALL dominated by either Fintech or Software-based VC.

And you ask what if the world moves away from trading dollars for petroleum products? First of all, a better question you should ask is, as with any other trade, do you have any other options? Let's not say replacing 100% of Energy Trade to a third currency, that's 3 to 5 trillion dollars, where can you find the value to cover it if it's not USD? On the other hand, tell me what would be a bigger problem? The world's imports and exports, valued at 22.7 trillion in 2024, stop using the USD?, or how about the world's global stock market valued at 127 trillion dollars stop trading in USD? How's that going to compare to the world oil and gas market, even at hyper-inflated state like now, it's only worth 8 trillion max. And you think no, those issue are nothing compare to Petro-Dollars?

The $127 Trillion Global Stock Market in One Giant Chart

This graphic pieces together the $127T global stock market to reveal which countries and regions dominate—and how much equity they control.

www.visualcapitalist.com

World Trade Statistics | WITS

World Trade Statistics including exports and imports by partner and products, tariffs and relevant development indicators.

wits.worldbank.org

I am not saying Petro-Dollar or Oil and Gas trade are not an important aspect of trading, again, 8 trillion is not nothing, but even if every one of those 8 trillion were diverted to some other currency, and assuming there is some other currency that can take it, it's NOT the end of the world for USD compare to World Import/Export, and comapre to World FINTECH trade.

And 1 more thing, the Oil and Gas market is finite; there is going to be a time when the natural resource runs out, OPEC will exhaust their oil deposit, and what will really happen then? Eventually, this is NOT going to be an option to be the backbone of world finance. So, countries, including the USA, would not base that on the core financial system. Becuase you know one day that will collapse when all oil runs out.

Again, all the facts are here; I can only let you know they exist, read it or not read it, is not really my problem, and as I said, you can have your own opinion if you want. I am not going to stop you, so this is my final post on the issue.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

No way US will go for anything on the ground, absolutely no way. If Israel could not shift Hezboallah positions and is now getting smacked around despite overwhelming armour and air superiority, you can forget about destroying Iranian dug in positions.

IRGC compared to Hezb will be like me comparing myself to Mike Tyson in his prime....

Maybe Donald Trump just wants an equivalent of OBL Raid in Iran, so he can finally look at Barrak Obama in the eyes.

 

[mythbuster]

Again, I have already explained that oil and gas are not really the backbone of any investment from now on. It may start as it was, but anyone with any sort of investment or venture capital background will tell you that's no longer the case, and in fact, a commodity-backed fund is probably the last one you want to go with. If you look at the current Series A option, it's ALL dominated by either Fintech or Software-based VC.

And you ask what if the world moves away from trading dollars for petroleum products? First of all, a better question you should ask is, as with any other trade, do you have any other options? Let's not say replacing 100% of Energy Trade to a third currency, that's 3 to 5 trillion dollars, where can you find the value to cover it if it's not USD? On the other hand, tell me what would be a bigger problem? The world's imports and exports, valued at 22.7 trillion in 2024, stop using the USD?, or how about the world's global stock market valued at 127 trillion dollars stop trading in USD? How's that going to compare to the world oil and gas market, even at hyper-inflated state like now, it's only worth 8 trillion max. And you think no, those issue are nothing compare to Petro-Dollars?

The $127 Trillion Global Stock Market in One Giant Chart

This graphic pieces together the $127T global stock market to reveal which countries and regions dominate—and how much equity they control.

www.visualcapitalist.com

View attachment 189352

World Trade Statistics | WITS

World Trade Statistics including exports and imports by partner and products, tariffs and relevant development indicators.

wits.worldbank.org

View attachment 189351

I am not saying Petro-Dollar or Oil and Gas trade are not an important aspect of trading, again, 8 trillion is not nothing, but even if every one of those 8 trillion were diverted to some other currency, and assuming there is some other currency that can take it, it's NOT the end of the world for USD compare to World Import/Export, and comapre to World FINTECH trade.

And 1 more thing, the Oil and Gas market is finite; there is going to be a time when the natural resource runs out, OPEC will exhaust their oil deposit, and what will really happen then? Eventually, this is NOT going to be an option to be the backbone of world finance. So, countries, including the USA, would not base that on the core financial system. Becuase you know one day that will collapse when all oil runs out.

Again, all the facts are here; I can only let you know they exist, read it or not read it, is not really my problem, and as I said, you can have your own opinion if you want. I am not going to stop you, so this is my final post on the issue.

I will try to simplify it with the hope you will keep an open mind...... you know in American politics there are republican supporters and democrats supporters.....and then there are swing voters , these swing voters are the ones who decide the outcome of any election..
Consider the petrodollars world as the swing voters.

 

[PakFactor]

As you already said, it is for EU to decide whether to pay up for its own defense and curtail its luxurious social spending, or to remain under the US defense umbrella as glorified protectorates and give up its delusions of grandeur.

It cannot have its cake and eat it too, as they say, as it has become accustomed to since the Cold War ended.

That is the main issue at play: the EU, as someone said, lives on subsidies, thanks in part to the United States defense arrangement. In business, we are always dealing with a guns-and-butter approach, and they will now have to find a balance by cutting back on the butter and increasing debt. Combine this with future employment issues, and they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Lastly, will the current generation be willing to be conscripted? They are more ideological and policy-minded.

I will also fault the Europeans and the rest for feeding a monster; they had no contingencies in place to control it. Now, it's staring them in the face.

 

[F-22Raptor]

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Bush carrier group headed to the ME. Trump says one thing, but the military buildup says otherwise.

 

[VCheng]

That is the main issue at play: the EU, as someone said, lives on subsidies, thanks in part to the United States defense arrangement. In business, we are always dealing with a guns-and-butter approach, and they will now have to find a balance by cutting back on the butter and increasing debt. Combine this with future employment issues, and they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Lastly, will the current generation be winning to be conscripted? They are more ideological and policy-minded.

I will also fault the Europeans and the rest for feeding a monster; they had no contingencies in place to control it. Now, it's staring them in the face.

That entire discussion is interesting, but belongs not in this thread IMO.

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

Again, I have already explained that oil and gas are not really the backbone of any investment from now on. It may start as it was, but anyone with any sort of investment or venture capital background will tell you that's no longer the case, and in fact, a commodity-backed fund is probably the last one you want to go with. If you look at the current Series A option, it's ALL dominated by either Fintech or Software-based VC.

And you ask what if the world moves away from trading dollars for petroleum products? First of all, a better question you should ask is, as with any other trade, do you have any other options? Let's not say replacing 100% of Energy Trade to a third currency, that's 3 to 5 trillion dollars, where can you find the value to cover it if it's not USD? On the other hand, tell me what would be a bigger problem? The world's imports and exports, valued at 22.7 trillion in 2024, stop using the USD?, or how about the world's global stock market valued at 127 trillion dollars stop trading in USD? How's that going to compare to the world oil and gas market, even at hyper-inflated state like now, it's only worth 8 trillion max. And you think no, those issue are nothing compare to Petro-Dollars?

The $127 Trillion Global Stock Market in One Giant Chart

This graphic pieces together the $127T global stock market to reveal which countries and regions dominate—and how much equity they control.

www.visualcapitalist.com

View attachment 189352

World Trade Statistics | WITS

World Trade Statistics including exports and imports by partner and products, tariffs and relevant development indicators.

wits.worldbank.org

View attachment 189351

I am not saying Petro-Dollar or Oil and Gas trade are not an important aspect of trading, again, 8 trillion is not nothing, but even if every one of those 8 trillion were diverted to some other currency, and assuming there is some other currency that can take it, it's NOT the end of the world for USD compare to World Import/Export, and comapre to World FINTECH trade.

And 1 more thing, the Oil and Gas market is finite; there is going to be a time when the natural resource runs out, OPEC will exhaust their oil deposit, and what will really happen then? Eventually, this is NOT going to be an option to be the backbone of world finance. So, countries, including the USA, would not base that on the core financial system. Becuase you know one day that will collapse when all oil runs out.

Again, all the facts are here; I can only let you know they exist, read it or not read it, is not really my problem, and as I said, you can have your own opinion if you want. I am not going to stop you, so this is my final post on the issue.

We're not even talking the same thing... apples and oranges.
Aramco sells over $400 billion worth of oil every year its market cap is around $1.6 trillion. Get it?

Net proceeds vs valuations are two different things. For example the Norwegian sovereign wealth funds owns about 1.5% of all listed stocks worldwide? How...
What does Norway sell?

 

[F-22Raptor]

Ballistic missile fire towards Israel is almost nonexistent today. 3-4 missiles, one with a cluster warhead

 

[Ali_Baba]

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War is not going to plan, with demands of Iran even further reduced now..

 

[جوبا]

USS George H.W. Bush leaves Norfolk for deployment


The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush departed its homeport in Virginia this week to begin operations for its scheduled deployment as the U.S. weighs a potential ground offensive against Iran. Bush left Naval Station Norfolk on Tuesday, the Navy said in a statement. The George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group includes Carrier Air Wing 7 and more than 5,000 sailors and military personnel, according to the service. The carrier will join other elements of the group, including the destroyers USS Ross, USS Donald Cook and USS Mason, as it transits the Atlantic Ocean.

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