New Western warnings... Is Iran on the verge of a nuclear bomb?
Western warnings are escalating again regarding the Iranian nuclear program, amid fears that Tehran is closer than ever to possessing a nuclear weapon, especially after the cessation of international inspections that monitored its stock of highly enriched uranium.
These fears come about three months after military strikes launched by the United States and Israel on sites inside Iran.
A large stock of uranium outside the scope of inspection
According to a report published by Bloomberg, citing Western officials, based on new data circulated within the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran still retains large quantities of uranium enriched to a level close to the level necessary to produce a nuclear bomb.
The sources explained that the weekly inspections conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor these materials have stopped.
According to a 119-page secret document seen by the US agency, before the war these materials were subject to periodic oversight aimed at ensuring that they were not converted into military purposes, but this oversight system no longer exists in its previous form.
Why do these developments worry the West?
Diplomats familiar with the IAEA report believe that the recent war has created new nuclear dilemmas that did not exist previously, stressing that the risks increase the longer these materials remain outside the scope of IAEA safeguards, as they may be diverted for non-peaceful uses.
They warn that the absence of direct oversight may open the door to non-peaceful uses of enriched materials, or at least increase the uncertainty surrounding the Iranian nuclear program.
In light of the cessation of inspections, it is difficult for international experts to determine the actual quantities in Iran, but current estimates indicate that it possesses about 441 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, which is close to the 90% level technically required to produce a few nuclear bombs.
Reports indicate that these quantities were mainly located in the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan facilities.
The International Atomic Energy Agency also estimates that Iran possesses approximately 8,600 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, or 60%.
In the midst of these developments, Western officials, according to Bloomberg, expressed their concern that the failure of the administration of US President Donald Trump to involve the International Atomic Energy Agency in the latest rounds of negotiations may lead to inaccurate estimates about the reality of the Iranian nuclear program.
Is Iran really close to possessing nuclear weapons?
For his part, Tariq Raouf, former head of the Office of Verification and Security Policy at the International Atomic Energy Agency, explained that the agency’s report on safeguards applications indicated that Iranian nuclear materials were being used for peaceful purposes and subject to the agency’s supervision, with the exception of those in the Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan facilities that were bombed.
Speaking to Arab TV from Vienna, he added that Iran possessed about 9,875 kilograms of enriched uranium at the time of the strikes, including 449 kilograms with an enrichment rate of 60%.
Raouf pointed out that these materials are currently outside the scope of direct verification due to their presence in damaged or destroyed sites, explaining that extracting or transporting them will be a complex process and difficult to implement away from satellite monitoring.
Raouf stressed that the main sites that could have been used to develop a nuclear weapon were severely damaged, which makes talk of a rapid rush towards manufacturing a nuclear bomb exaggerated.
Raouf believes that even if Iran can regain access to its 441-kilogram stockpile and raise the enrichment rate to 90%, manufacturing a military-usable nuclear bomb could take a year or more.
He added that possessing fissile material alone is not enough, as it requires developing a nuclear warhead that can be installed on a missile or warplane, which are complex technical stages that require time and additional tests.
tribune.com.pk
