US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[ShapurII]

It seems you have a cozy cocoon.

Glad to see you've been defeated on an intellectual level and this is the best you could come up with.

 

[ShapurII]

Was talking about WTI price, Americans don't really care how much the Brits are paying for their oil....

$150 is "Possible" at a time when everything is possible. To reach that level, you need certain things to go this way.

1.) Canada and Norway do not increase their production
2.) The rest of the West does not intervene (either send a ship to escort the tanker out or come up with some insurance plan)
3.) Iran has to escalate the war and attack or close the Red Sea traffic as well (currently, the Red Sea diverts about 20-30% of Gulf oil with the Yanbu pipeline; the last figure I had is close to 6 million barrels a day)
4.) Saudi Arabia and Qatar continue to do absolutely nothing.

If all 4 things has done, then we may see a $150 a barrel price, that is very hard to do, I would say it's less than 10%

Brent crude price has traditionally been the benchmark for most of the world, particularly the Europeans. WTI is mostly relevant for the Americans, and probably Canadians or other countries in Americas. I'm not sure about the last one though.

Actually, I did factor in an increase in oil production. And my scenario was that shit hits the fan, meaning that Saudi Arabia and other Arabs decide to actually do something, the US does more than it is doing now, Israel does more than it is doing now, et cetera. I mean, if Iran destroys Persian Gulf oil infrastructure resulting in long-term significant drop in oil production and Norway, Canada, Russia and the US do not ramp up their oil production rates, then there will be no imaginable limit to oil prices for a while.

By the way, Qatar is rather a major LNG producer, not a major oil producer as far as I know.

 

[mythbuster]

Glad to see you've been defeated on an intellectual level and this is the best you could come up with.

See , you are an epitome of conceited mindset.... world economy is doing fine , look at the markets .. even if the oil prices shoot up to $ 150 , they will not , it won't dent the economy... world is not as heavily dependent on gulf oil as it once had been.... your entire soh gambit will be over within couple of weeks.... you can keep o playing your flute.

 

[ShapurII]

See , you are an epitome of conceited mindset.... world economy is doing fine , look at the markets .. even if the oil prices shoot up to $ 150 , they will not , it won't dent the economy... world is not as heavily dependent on gulf oil as it once had been.... your entire soh gambit will be over within couple of weeks.... you can keep o playing your flute.

Yeah, right lol Please bookmark your post for future reference when you start crying about energy price in Pakistan in the not too distant future.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Trump: I lean 90% toward believing that Mojtaba Khamenei was killed

@AlArabiya_Brk

Trump wants proof of life so that he can use that process, to track him down and then try to kill him...

 

[Ali_Baba]

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View attachment 206101

Trump is mentally unwell on top of his dementia related issues, that is clear for all to see - so why does the American political system allow him such free reign and why does it not move to remove him from power ?

 

[ShapurII]

Trump wants proof of life so that he can use that process, to track him down and then try to kill him...

But isn't it surprising that the US can't track him down? They never had an issue tracking down Iran's heads of states before. Either Mojtaba is really smart and the Islamic Republic has finally learned to protect its most important figures or something seems off.

 

[Ali_Baba]

But isn't it surprising that the US can't track him down? They never had an issue tracking down Iran's heads of states before. Either Mojtaba is really smart and the Islamic Republic has finally learned to protect its most important figures or something seems off.

Or they have found out how the tracking was done, and finally managed to shut it down ?

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( I dont know if the video is correct ).

 

[Ali_Baba]

Iran’s Widest Gulf Strike Hits Four States as BeiDou Kills US Jamming Defense​

Iran's Widest Gulf Strike Hits Four States as BeiDou Kills US Jamming Defense

Iran missile attack on US Gulf bases across four countries on July 12, 2026 exposed a critical gap: Zolfaghar ballistic missiles guided by China’s BeiDou-3 satellite navigation now maintain 98 percent accuracy under US jamming, leaving depleted Patriot and THAAD interceptor stockpiles as the last

www.techtimes.com

> Cross posting from the Iranian Missile thread as it is relevant to this war.

 

[ShapurII]

Or they have found out how the tracking was done, and finally managed to shut it down ?

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( I dont know if the video is correct ).

Bro, the guy in your video, Pepe Escobar, is a well-known village fool with no reputation left whatsoever. He doesn't even seem to understand what he's talking about.
How can you stop passive tracking and fingerprinting of somebody over the internet and compromised servers by "electronic warfare"? lol

By the way, he's the same fool that claimed Israel was going to drop a nuclear EMP on Tehran after TP1 and Russia stopped it in the last minute. lol He has a hyperactive imagination.

 

[j_hungary]

Brent crude price has traditionally been the benchmark for most of the world, particularly the Europeans. WTI is mostly relevant for the Americans, and probably Canadians or other countries in Americas. I'm not sure about the last one though.

Actually, I did factor in an increase in oil production. And my scenario was that shit hits the fan, meaning that Saudi Arabia and other Arabs decide to actually do something, the US does more than it is doing now, Israel does more than it is doing now, et cetera. I mean, if Iran destroys Persian Gulf oil infrastructure resulting in long-term significant drop in oil production and Norway, Canada, Russia and the US do not ramp up their oil production rates, then there will be no imaginable limit to oil prices for a while.

By the way, Qatar is rather a major LNG producer, not a major oil producer as far as I know.

Trump is an American president, not the leader of the West. Again, Americans don't really care about Brent prices, and the rest of the world doesn't really have much say in it. And I would say Starmer, Macron and Merz don't really have much say in this war........

And when I said Saudi and Qatar continue not to do anything, I don't mean anything about oil production, I mean they don't send their ships, troops, and air force to protect the Gulf. I know Qatar is a Natural Gas producer........

On the other hand, there is virtually no chance that Canada and Norway will not be ramping up theirs, it's just basic maths, no one wants to see oil price go up, on the other hand, the US, Canadian, and Norwegian (and to some extent Russian) are making a killing at oil price, they want to keep the price at level, not excebrately high so no one can afford, because if nobody is buying, they earn nothing.

 

[ShapurII]

Trump is an American president, not the leader of the West. Again, Americans don't really care about Brent prices, and the rest of the world doesn't really have much say in it. And I would say Starmer, Macron and Merz don't really have much say in this war........

Nobody said Trump was the leader of the West either. That's a textbook example of a strawman fallacy. The European Union is the largest trade partner of the US by far. If Europe enters recession, the recession will eventually come to the US as well in a domino effect. It may take a few weeks or months, but it will happen without a doubt.

And when I said Saudi and Qatar continue not to do anything, I don't mean anything about oil production, I mean they don't send their ships, troops, and air force to protect the Gulf. I know Qatar is a Natural Gas producer........

Neither did I. I meant they would get involved militarily. The UAE is in particularly very serious about the military option because of the issue of the three islands.
Qatar is also irrelevant militarily. They're a tiny statelet with no real military power and strategic depth. Saudi Arabia is the only Arab country in the Persian Gulf region with actual military relevance.

On the other hand, there is virtually no chance that Canada and Norway will not be ramping up theirs, it's just basic maths, no one wants to see oil price go up, on the other hand, the US, Canadian, and Norwegian (and to some extent Russian) are making a killing at oil price, they want to keep the price at level, not excebrately high so no one can afford, because if nobody is buying, they earn nothing.

When there is no one else to buy from and Arabs are out, price explodes. Oil is not a luxury good that you can stop importing it until the price is down again. What you are talking about applies to luxury goods but oil is a necessity good and you must afford it because your entire industry and civilian infrastructure depend on it. So, when there's a lack of supply, demand can not get lower than a certain threshold and price will explode. Economics 101.

 

[VCheng]

It's sad that you can't see how malicious this statement is.

There is nothing malicious in my statement: "One way or another, whether internally or externally motivated, Iran will see it as prudent to change a few policies."

Nations titrate their policies in response to the ever changing geopolitical situation around them all the time.

Iran is no different, and it will find the right combination of policies that work for it the best. After all, it is finding it rather difficult to ignore what is happening currently, no? A change in policies seems inevitable at this point, whether willingly or unwillingly.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Iranians wouldn't even know what struck them.

Losing a submarine is a big deal as they take forever to build and operationalise.

Anyway, is this a proper conventional sub or one of those mini subs used for only coastal patrols/special ops?

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Pretty clear that Iran launching 20-30 ballistic missiles a day isn’t working and having zero deterrence effect on US forces.

Iranians also claiming daily that they've forced the US military out of the region is also proving to be false.

I don't think the USV flew to the region before attacking the sub.

Anyways, a country that operates a dozen giant aircraft carriers, does it really need airbases in the region to "finish the job"?

In my personal opinion, I think this will (if it hasn't already) turning into the World Vs IRGC instead of US-Israel Vs Iran. No one cares if an IRGC Commander or an IRGC controlled infrastructure is taken out.