KAL-EL
VIP Member
Nope.. not surprised
US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War
- Thread starter AZ_HighCountry
- Start date
KingQamaR
Elite Member
How exactly did the US win the war? The US military had 3 strategic goals: 1) The elimination of Iran's Nuclear Program, 2) The elimination of Iran's Ballistic Missile Program and 3) Regime Change.
The US not only failed to achieve the goals proclaimed by itself but it failed to achieve the new goal set by it's own failure, the opening of the Straight of Hormuz. The "World's Most Powerful Navy" failed to open a single Straight....
AZ_HighCountry
INT'L MOD
- Thread starter
- #6,858
It's not hard to see you fail to understand the long term implications of the manner in which this conflict is being handled.
The SC
INT'L MOD
US President Donald Trump confirms that there are no ongoing or scheduled negotiations with Iran and that the naval blockade continues Trump says that the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating normally The American President stresses that the naval blockade on Iran is strong and effective
The SC
INT'L MOD
Trump:
Iran is in big trouble, it is in a state of chaos, and its army has been completely defeated
Iran is not in the process of concluding the agreement, which I believe is necessary
Iran wants to reach an agreement and we are there for one reason, which is to prevent them from possessing a nuclear weapon
Iran cannot and will never possess a nuclear weapon
Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon will take a long time after the strikes we carried out last summer on its nuclear facilities.
We control the Strait of Hormuz through a naval blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it an American territory.
Iran is in big trouble, it is in a state of chaos, and its army has been completely defeated Iran is not in the process of concluding the agreement, which I believe is necessary Iran wants to reach an agreement and we are there for one reason, which is to prevent them from possessing a nuclear weapon Iran cannot and will never possess a nuclear weapon Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon will take a long time after the strikes we carried out last summer on its nuclear facilities. We control the Strait of Hormuz through a naval blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it an American territory.
F-22Raptor
Elite Member
1. Irans nuclear industry is largely destroyed and HEU buried so deep Iran can’t access it. An that site is monitored 24/7 by US intelligence
2. Irans ballistic missile production facilities are also largely destroyed. Irans missile sites were suppressed to the point where they were firing only 5-10 missiles per day for weeks. Only way to eliminate that further is to send ground troops into those sites or nuke them. You couldn’t suppress them any more by air power alone.
3. Regime change was never a primary objective, and why Trump stated on Feb 28 it was up to Iranian citizens to decide. We decapitated top leadership in the hopes the next tier was willing to work with us. The Maduro operation was the precedent. The problem is the pragmatic faction we were negotiating with doesn’t control the military. Thats the IRGC, so you have multiple factions to deal with. Either way, historically it takes years to overthrow Middle Eastern regimes. Iran is economically strangled. Regime change has been set in motion, even if that’s years down the line.
Agnostic Muslim
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Sure, right after the US Govt renounces ‘spreading its terror tentacles’ across the world, overthrowing governments, installing fascist autocrats/regimes … oh wait, this unprovoked war against Iran is itself an example of the US ‘spreading its terror tentacles across the globe’.
Oh, and threats of ‘nuking Iran’ and ‘ending it’s civilization’ … it’s pretty clear which combatant is ‘the Dark Side’.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Shags101
Trusted Member
So confused they say they’re negotiating supposedly 5 seconds before with irgc leaders(Iran denies it adamantly)than 5 seconds later they deny there was any negotiations or speaking to the other side really easy to disprove the other side just release these imaginary conversations that never happened
Shags101
Trusted Member
Israel has committed true atrocities in Palestine and Iran is the bad guy agree or disagree with the crackdown on protestors just before the run up to the Iran war we can agree now that there were many armed terrorists mixed with peaceful protestors which was a result of Mossad and trumps now incompetent cia arming those folks and yes we can nearly all agree Trump keeps inflating the numbers of death last count 52 thousand
Pakistani Dragon
Elite Member
Fine then.
Iran can carry on fighting the US and Israel—nobody is holding them back—try to continue spreading its Terror Tentacles in the Arab World, and Iranians living in the West can perhaps also return to their motherland, Persia, and fight alongside their compatriots.
While we're at it, maybe non-Iranians with such a strong passion for the IRGC's fanaticism can also renounce their nationalities and apply for Iranian citizenship.
F-22Raptor
Elite Member
Iran has lost significant control of the Strait of Hormuz
The battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz has become the focal point of the Iran war. Over the past several months, both Iran and the United States have claimed the upper hand – and the competing rhetoric has caused considerable confusion and doubt.
At the moment, however, the evidence is clear: The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground – and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway.
More than 80% of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have taken the Omani route – a UN-authorized shipping channel that Iran vehemently opposes – according to Kpler, which tracks ships using transponders and satellite data.
Iran, declaring the strait under its control, has attacked dozens of ships that tried to to travel the waterway via the north coast of Oman. Despite the risk, most ships have recently chosen to ignore Iran’s demands and cross the strait with the promise of protection from US naval forces.
“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.
Shifting control
That stands in stark contrast to a month ago, when Kpler observed virtually no shipping traffic via the Omani route. The sharp reduction in traffic around Iran’s preferred route has prevented Iran from charging tolls on ship traffic through the strait – as it did in the spring.The expiration of the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran this week in theory allows Iran to begin charging tolls again. But it doesn’t appear the country has been able to, according to Kpler.
“Iran’s request to collect tolls is something that most Middle East folks don’t want to do and haven’t been doing,” said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners. “So the Oman route absolutely makes the most sense.”
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have chartered Very Large Crude oil Carriers (VLCCs) – the biggest oil tankers – to transit out of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, then transfering the oil to customers’ tankers outside the danger zone in the Gulf of Oman, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
To evade Iran’s attacks, they’ve turned their transponders off, often for weeks on end. That so-called dark traffic appears to have eluded some data-tracking services like Kpler as well. Although some can be picked up on satellite, it’s harder to track via traditional means.
But the United States, with significant military force on the water, has eyes on all ships passing through the strait and has reported significantly higher oil shipping numbers than most traditional estimates had previously suggested.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright last week said that combined oil transits through the strait and rerouted around the waterway totaled around 15 million barrels per day over the course of a week – much closer to the 20-million-barrel average from before the war.
Lack of clarity
That led President Donald Trump to declare Monday that the United States has “total control over the strait,” a questionable claim he has reiterated often throughout the conflict. Iran’s continued attacks and oil flows still well below pre-war levels suggest the United States does not fully control the Strait of Hormuz.But neither does Iran.
“If their goal is to be ‘in charge,’ then I’d say they were never completely in control to start with,” said Pickering. “It feels like their goal is deterrence, in order to be validated as in-control. I think they are still deterring.”
But if tankers are really getting as much oil through the strait as the United States claims, then Iran’s deterrence and control of the Strait of Hormuz is diminished compared to what it was a month or two ago.
Complicating matters: Oman and Iran are engaging in talks to restore freedom of navigation through the strait – absent the United States – much to Trump’s dismay. It’s not clear how those discussions will affect oil traffic or control of the waterway.
“I would take all the information and headlines ‘under advisement,’” said Lipow. “But it is fair to say that Iran has partially lost control of the strait.”
Agnostic Muslim
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
And what is the relevance of that comment about the Iranian diaspora to the thread, let alone the fact that you haven’t provided any credible sources to back up that claim.
So lets start with credible sources that support your claims about the Iranian diaspora.
AZ_HighCountry
INT'L MOD
- Thread starter
- #6,869
Enough with the thinly veiled personal attacks.
Agnostic Muslim
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Respond to my arguments instead of ‘thinly veiled personal attacks’ telling your debate opponent to go to XYZ country or get XYZ Citizenship.
