US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

F-22Raptor said:

US pressure on Iran starting to tell, as sanctions and blockade bite​


DUBAI, Sept 3 (Reuters) - A U.S. campaign to throttle Iran's economy by blockading its oil exports and stopping sanctions evasion is growing increasingly difficult to withstand, three senior Iranian sources said.

Washington has in recent weeks sought to ratchet up the economic pressure on Tehran, in an effort to extract concessions in any future negotiation that six months of conflict have so far failed to secure.

Although Iran's ‌clerical rulers managed to bypass sanctions for decades, the latest U.S. moves have left them in a far more sensitive position, with few remaining channels to secure foreign currency or buy goods, the sources said.

In particular, the effort to stop Iran accessing international financing networks in other countries it has long used to keep its economy functioning poses a real and urgent threat, the sources said.

Any sign the economic campaign may break a months-long deadlock in the conflict will likely cheer U.S. planners, though Iran has also warned it could respond to the pressure with military escalation, raising the stakes at a key moment.

PETROL STOCKS LOW AS CURRENCY COLLAPSES​

The war has erupted back into open fighting this week, with U.S. attacks along Iran's Gulf coast prompting retaliatory Iranian strikes at U.S. bases in Arab states.

Neither side has signalled yet it is ready to make the concessions demanded by the other, leaving the war ⁠in a costly stalemate - though one that may be shifting.

While more energy is flowing to international markets through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iranian efforts to continue disrupting the seaway, the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil exports has entirely cut off Tehran's main source of revenue.

Adding to Iran's problems, the economy was already deep in crisis before the conflict, with a cratering currency and spiralling inflation, while months of bombing have run up a massive bill to rebuild damaged industry and infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the country's financial squeeze is itself biting into Tehran's efforts to get around the sanctions regime, leaving less cash to pay the high premiums required to skirt sanctions illicitly, the sources said.

The rial has fallen to record lows over recent days and one senior source said Iran only has another two months' supply of gasoline, which has to be imported despite domestic oil production because of limited refining capacity.

Iran's rulers are keenly aware of the potential risks of an economic meltdown and the possibility of it reigniting the nationwide mass protests it put down in January by killing thousands of demonstrators.

"They are under very, very severe economic pressure. They're losing control of the Straits. It's really a question of if they choose to negotiate and I think they'll have to," said Ali Ansari, modern history professor at St Andrews University in Scotland.

The war is also entering a new phase, with each side trying to influence each other's politics.

Iran hopes the ‌threat of inflation ⁠will deter the U.S. administration before midterm elections in November, while Washington aims to push Iranians to revolt, a senior Iranian official said.

BLOCKADE AND SECONDARY SANCTIONS SQUEEZING TEHRAN​

The latest U.S. measures expanded secondary sanctions that target countries doing business with Iran in a bid to stop it clearing dollar transactions needed for both oil sales and to finance crucial imports of goods and raw materials.

That effort is making Iran's existing sanctions evasion networks - front companies, unregistered tankers and smuggling - too expensive to use, the three senior sources said.

Iranian crude loadings have fallen this month to about 260,000 barrels a day, from about 1.7 million a year earlier, according to data from commodity analytics firm Kpler, with only a trickle still moving off terminals for distribution by truck, train or smaller boats over the Caspian ⁠Sea.

Tehran says it still has tens of millions of barrels stored in tankers outside the blockade zone that it can sell, but the new sanctions mean intermediaries are stepping back or demanding more money, one of the officials said.

Total trade has fallen between 25% and 35%, with imports hit harder than exports, President Masoud Pezeshkian has said, one of several top officials warning in recent weeks about Iran's rapidly deteriorating situation.

U.S. pressure and Iran's own attacks have meanwhile disrupted one of the main conduits for Iranian trade - the United Arab ⁠Emirates, which said on August 19 that all commercial exchange and financial dealings with Tehran were halted until further notice.

“If those channels stay closed, a supplier wants cash, a deal is routed through another country and a shipment arrives later and dearer,” said an Iranian trader in Tehran who deals in imported goods.

The currency has collapsed in value from around 1 million rials to the dollar a year ago to over 2.2 million rials now.

The internal impact is very painful. Official ⁠figures put 12-month average inflation at 69.9% with food, beverages and tobacco prices rising at nearly twice that rate.

Official unemployment rose to 9.1% in the spring, while the number of those in work fell by about 450,000 from a year earlier amid a wider fall in labour force participation.

Even for those still in work, the average monthly salary of around $125 a month comes nowhere near meeting basic household spending requirements that come to around $450 a month according to official data.

"We are getting poorer every day," said Mahnaz, a 34-year-old private-sector employee in Tehran who asked that her family name not be used.

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But Iran has in one way or another been suffering from sanctions for years and continue to be a thorn in the side.
You continue to mirror comical Ali.
 
AZ_HighCountry said:
It won't be much longer before world financial institutions tell Trump and Bessent to eff off with their sanctions.
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Say what you want about past several presidents from Barack to Regan(Biden sucked we all know that and can’t go back as far Carter because honestly not big on American history 😆)they all had their pros and cons but man when they needed their allies they came running to help because they wanted to now they are threatened basically with gun to their heads with economic, political and even military threats to drag their feet into a conflict that they know only benefits one country
 
Pakistani Dragon said:
This is where I respectfully disagree.

In my humble opinion, both the Democrats and Republicans will do everything they can to keep bombing Iran.

While the Democrats are in opposition, they'll say different things, but when they're in power, they'll continue the Republican policy towards Iran.
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I'm actually good with this line of thought. Let me throw this out there:

Today's Democrat Party is NOT the Party of 30 years ago. There is a lot more extremism, progressivism for those who choose to call it that, in the Party. For all intents and purposes, it is AOC and her band of nutty women who run the Party now. Schumer and Jeffries clearly aren't in charge. If the Democrats take back the House in November, you can absolutely count on AOC and the rest of the DSA members to force Jeffries into getting out of the conflict.
 
AZ_HighCountry said:
I'm actually good with this line of thought. Let me throw this out there:

Today's Democrat Party is NOT the Party of 30 years ago. There is a lot more extremism, progressivism for those who choose to call it that, in the Party. For all intents and purposes, it is AOC and her band of nutty women who run the Party now. Schumer and Jeffries clearly aren't in charge. If the Democrats take back the House in November, you can absolutely count on AOC and the rest of the DSA members to force Jeffries into getting out of the conflict.
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At this point I will take her and nutty colleagues over straight crazy from this White House they can’t be worse at this point damn I will take Tucker at this point
 
Shags101 said:
At this point I will take her and nutty colleagues over straight crazy from this White House they can’t be worse at this point damn I will take Tucker at this point
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So you're into conspiracy theories in general.

Ok.
 
AZ_HighCountry said:
So you're into conspiracy theories in general.

Ok.
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😆 anything is better than Trump or white privilege(the person can be any color I don’t care I don’t want California boy to be president either) we definitely need someone fresh and young and definitely not corrupt with one thing for sure she isn’t they ran an audit if her fiancé I got more in my bank than her not including my retirement funds
 
Shags101 said:
because honestly not big on American history 😆)
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I can see this.

The root cause of America's downfall goes back to the 1890s, and the final nail in the coffin was the Federal Reserve Act in 1913.

Even President Woodward Wilson admitted this much before he passed away.
 
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Shags101 said:
😆 anything is better than Trump or white privilege(the person can be any color I don’t care I don’t want California boy to be president either) we definitely need someone fresh and young and definitely not corrupt with one thing for sure she isn’t they ran an audit if her fiancé I got more in my bank than her not including my retirement funds
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What White privilege?

1788569592548.png

Rudyard Kipling’s “White Man’s Burden” (1899)


Take up the White Man's burden -
Send forth the best ye breed -
Go bind your sons to exile
To serve your captives' need;
To wait in heavy harness
On fluttered folk and wild -
Your new-caught sullen peoples,
Half devil and half child.

Take up the White Man's burden -
In patience to abide
To veil the threat of terror
And check the show of pride;
By open speech and simple,
An hundred times made plain,
To seek another's profit,
And work another's gain.

Take up the White Man's burden -
The savage wars of peace -
Fill full the mouth of famine
And bid the sickness cease;
And when your goal is nearest
The end for others sought,
Watch Sloth and heathen Folly
Bring all your hopes to nought.

Take up the White Man's burden -
No tawdry rule of kings,
But toil of serf and sweeper -
The tale of common things.
The ports ye shall not enter,
The roads ye shall not tread,
Go make them with your living,
And mark them with your dead!

Take up the White Man's burden -
And reap his old reward,
The blame of those ye better,
The hate of those ye guard -
The cry of hosts ye humour
(Ah slowly !) towards the light:-
"Why brought ye us from bondage,
"Our loved Egyptian night ?"
Take up the White Man's burden -
Ye dare not stoop to less -
Nor call too loud on Freedom
To cloak your weariness;
By all ye cry or whisper,
By all ye leave or do,
The silent sullen peoples
Shall weigh your Gods and you.

Take up the White Man's burden -
Have done with childish days -
The lightly proffered laurel,
The easy, ungrudged praise.
Comes now, to search your manhood
Through all the thankless years,
Cold-edged with dear-bought wisdom,
The judgement of your peers.
 
F-22Raptor said:


STS Transfers surging
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I have to agree with some of the comments. All you see are two ships supposedly transferring product. How much is not known.

You really need to have better information that just some random twitter post showing ships side by side.
 
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