A long post for nothing IMO. Off year, special election which Democrats poured millions into thinking they would sweep it based on the momentum of NJ and VA, which I had a good idea leading up to those elections the Democrat candidate would win.
If you look at the breakdown of TN-07, the only sliver Behn won was in the section of Nashville proper that was included in TN-07. Otherwise, Van Epps carried the rest of the district hands down.
Yeah, no need for another lecture about votes. I know how it works as well as you do. Just pointing out that outside the city proper, Van Epps won including TN's portion of Ft. Campbell.
That's more than the problem you actually describe here
First of all, whether or not this is an off year (by the way, the turnout number is similar to the mid-term than off year), the thing you failed to see is Behn is not a "candidate" of choice for Tennesse, she is a progressive, or you can even claim far left activtist, standing at a deep red state, we are not talking about a centrist, we are not talking about a Purple or Blue state. If this is a totally normal campaign, running a Progressive candidate in Tennessee, Behn would have lost by beyond -22; it's basically like what Sliwa got for the NYC mayor race.
As I said in the original post to
@FuturePAF , you have to be really naive to think Dem can pick up TN-07, Van Epps is always going to win this, but by how much, against a progressive
That's the issue, because you have the dem out perform in Blue States, and you have the dem out perform (regardless on what number) in a Red State, again, say this swing is not 14 point, it's 7 points, you are looking at around 30-50 house GOP seats in jeapordy, anything less than a GOP +5 CPVI is not safe. Even with a +4 (so 1/3 of the swing in Tennessee), you are talking about 20 seats that is gonna be in trouble, most of them in the 7 swing states, some in blue states (for example, a +4 wing in New York would take out 3 or 4 NY GOP seats) and you only need 3 to flip the house, plenty of those are in the Blue States alone.
You can stretch the importance of an off-year election, but it's unlikely to be the case if she managed to win 14 points in one of the Reddest states in the US with the most incompatible candidate. And if you read the post-race analysis, Behn has an average +6 swing on the district outside Nashville. That's a lot, considering Trump only has around +3 in a reciprocal blue state district in 2024.
But hey, if you want to live in your bubble and all you want to hear is "This is an off-year election, and it didn't count," I am okay with that.