US Political News and Trump’s China visit

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That's such a thoughtful perspective! I love how you’ve framed the balance between financial and social policies. It’s got me curious—do you think there’s anyone in the Democratic Party right now who embodies this kind of centrist approach? I’d love to hear your thoughts!



Trump's polling. I prefer aggregate polling from platforms like RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight over individual polls because it provides a more accurate and balanced view of public opinion. Individual polls often vary in methodology and can be cherry-picked to promote specific agendas, leading to distorted perceptions. Aggregate polling, by combining data from multiple sources, smooths out biases and anomalies, offering a clearer picture of trends.

RealClearPolitics simplifies this process with straightforward averages, while FiveThirtyEight enhances reliability by accounting for pollster biases through advanced statistical models. In a world of conflicting information, aggregate polling is an invaluable tool for understanding the bigger picture.

Currently, Trump's Approval rating is underwater, with his Favorability rating faring even worse, according to RealClearPolitics.

Approval rating

Favorability rating
I would say that the next Democrat leader should not be a traditional centrist (like Sinema and Mnuchin) because you can't reach out to the root of democrat's base, the leader does have to separate fiscal policy with social policy, it can't be seen as too woke, it can't be seen as too conservative. That person need to move the needle back toward Left/Center-Left if he want to have a chance. It's like Clinton, a financial reformist but also grassroot.

For the current Democrats, I see a few name I would say will be a good fit into this category, Josh Shapiro, Andy Bashear, Amy Klobuchar or Mark Kelly, I will say Gavin Newsom probably is also a good fit, but it depends on 2028 LA Olympic (If he made a shit out of it then no....)

As for Trump rating, he is always low, I don't see him having high approval rate ever, because he ran his platform like a politician villain (the other are bad so you vote for him) He remind me of the villain in a little TV series called Community, when they are trying to get someone really, really nice into the study group or the classic villain Ben Chang (played by Ken Jeong) into the group, the leader Jeff made this speech

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It basically summed up why or how people see Trump have value and why people would vote for him. Because he is bad, but you know how bad it is, it's like McDonald, it's a safe bet when you don't know what you want to eat.
 
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For the current Democrats, I see a few name I would say will be a good fit into this category, Josh Shapiro, Andy Bashear, Amy Klobuchar or Mark Kelly, I will say Gary Newsom probably is also a good fit, but it depends on 2028 LA Olympic (If he made a shit out of it then no....)
Absolutely NOT on Mark Kelly. I've followed his career since he leveraged his wife's near assassination. The guy is no centrist not to mention he left Pima County taxpayers on the hook for a business venture of his that didn't do well. He's also compromised to an extent by the Chinese.

Newsom? Are you out of your mind? He will say whatever it takes. He's managed to pick up where Jerry Brown left off in the destruction of California. As bad as Newsom has mismanaged California, you want him leading the country?

Shapiro is somewhat moderate and would be a better choice over Beshear or Klobuchar any day of the week.
 
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Absolutely NOT on Mark Kelly. I've followed his career since he leveraged his wife's near assassination. The guy is no centrist not to mention he left Pima County taxpayers on the hook for a business venture of his that didn't do well. He's also compromised to an extent by the Chinese.

Newsom? Are you out of your mind? He will say whatever it takes. He's managed to pick up where Jerry Brown left off in the destruction of California. As bad as Newsom has mismanaged California, you want him leading the country?

Shapiro is somewhat moderate and would be a better choice over Beshear or Klobuchar any day of the week.
I am not from Arizona, so I will defer to your judgement for Mark Kelly. He seems centrist or at least centrist like for me, but then I could just be picking up some of his policy

Newsom is a wildcard, he have some "people power" that's how he survived the recall, but I do agree he mismanaged California, especially so during and after the wildfire, that's why I put him in the "Maybe" category, again, as I said, LA Olympic is coming up, and if he F it up like he did with the wildfire, that would be a hard no for me

Shapiro is my choice as I mentioned somewhere else as well, I also like Tim Waltz, it really depends, but I am seeing a Shapiro/Waltz ticket or Shapiro/Klobuchar ticket somewhat a possibility for 2028
 
Walz is another hard no and as a fellow vet, you should be scrutinizing his service record not to mention his policies during covid. His fellow Guard members weren't happy with him especially over the claims of retiring as a CSM along with cutting and running when his unit received orders for Iraq.

I happen to know an E-8 who was in the Minnesota Guard. IIRC, he was in at the same time as Walz. Next time I see him will ask him.

Walz is pretty much done as far as politics at the national level goes. He knows it too.
 
Walz is another hard no and as a fellow vet, you should be scrutinizing his service record not to mention his policies during covid. His fellow Guard members weren't happy with him especially over the claims of retiring as a CSM along with cutting and running when his unit received orders for Iraq.

I happen to know an E-8 who was in the Minnesota Guard. IIRC, he was in at the same time as Walz. Next time I see him will ask him.

Walz is pretty much done as far as politics at the national level goes. He knows it too.
Well, IIRC he claims he had sent in the paperwork for separation so he can run for congress before he was notified for deployment.

Now you may have a different mindset than me, but I wouldn't say he is dodging the deployment, I mean, he had an out (after serving 24 years no less) and he took it, I know people who were in command position did both, some re-up, some don't, I think this is more of a personal choice. Look at it this way, OIF lasted for 8 years (03-11) and OEF lasted for 20, so if you retired or separated between 01-21, that would mean you left between deployment because you know regardless of your position or unit, you are going to get deployed sooner or later.

I mean, if he got a deployment notice before he signs the separation paper and weasel out from it using his rank, that's another story, if that is the case, he can go to hell

As for retired as CSM, was he ever a CSM or served as a CSM capacity? (Sergeant Major and COMMAND sergeant major is very different) If he had held the command, then he can say he retired as CSM even if he had not retired under that title, kind of like some 4 stars retired as LTG and then say they are a retired General, if not, he would have retired as a Sergeant Major.

As for Tim Walz national career ending? I don't know, some people would say in 2021 Trump career had ended after Jan 6 but then he got elected in 2024, so you never know
 
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