USA's renewed Interest in Pakistan - Implications for India

[indushek]

Rohit asked: What security implications do you see by the presence of PLA or the Chinese army in the Pakistan occupied Kashmir? | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

Priyanka Singh replies: In recent past, there has been extensive reportage on the possible presence of PLA (Peoples’ Liberation Army) soldiers in Gilgit Baltistan region of PoK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir). In October 2011, Chief of the Indian Army, General V.K. Singh, also endorsed this...

idsa.in

Chinese PLA surveys villages and military posts in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir

www.deccanherald.com

China may be looking at setting up a military base in Pakistan's Gwadar - Times of India

Pakistan News: Beijing recently announced that it is looking to "expand into new fields of military cooperation" with Islamabad, raising global concerns that the Peo

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Why Was the US Ambassador’s Visit to Gwadar Important?

After staying away from Balochistan for over 15 years, the United States is showing increasing interest in the strategic, China-funded and operated port of Gwadar.

thediplomat.com

India takes note of Pak Army chief's meetings in Washington

akistani Army chief General Asim Munir met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defence Llyod J Austin, Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer and Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Q Brown.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Will Pakistan offer drone bases to US to target terror outfits?

Balochistan caretaker Information Minister Jan Achakzai on Wednesday (Dec 13) posted on X and subsequently deleted a series of proposed actions in response to a deadly terror attack on a military camp. Achakzai suggested that Pakistan should offer "drone bases to target militant sanctuaries in...

www.wionews.com

Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Deadly Bombings in Iran

The group, which has struck before in Iran, has a long history of division with the country.

www.nytimes.com

US Designates China, Pakistan As "Countries of Particular Concern"

The US has designated China, North Korea, and Pakistan as "Countries of Particular Concern" for engaging in and tolerating "particularly severe violations of religious freedom."

www.ndtv.com

Am posting here few articles, just to given a chronology of events happening around India. This is to give an idea of recent events, between US and Pakistan. Pakistan is a sovereign nation, and has every right to take its own decisions first of all. However as a neighbor, India will be keeping a watch as there will be effects of short and long term significance for us. I believe Pakistan will be doing the same, so this is just an attempt to understand what might be happening and can affect us. Having said that:

I believe that Mr Munir's visit to USA isn't just to get their blessing, to continue in his current position. Given Pakistan's economic issues, and Chinese slowing down in further investments into CPEC, and taking time to rolling over the loans (which happened eventually, post Western approval and then Saudi help) Pakistan is re-aligning towards West now. Considering US and Chinese duking it out, Pakistan seems to be back in significance.

I have attached few articles, at the time when CPEC was in full swing. Back in 2011 and 2012 PLA soldiers seemed to have been spotted, in Gligit Baltistan. General Jacob from India seemed to have written a article on this, but India just didn't make any noise on this (not sure if some discussions happened, but nothing in public). Its not a secret that Chinese to secure their energy supply, have been working on getting a route through Pakistan (to avoid Malacca Straits). If this happens US will not be able to contain China, so making sure this doesn't happen is but logical.

In light of above, its very much possible that US's hasty retreat (where they left back billions of dollars worth arms and ammunitions), was no mistake. They seemed to have done this, to make sure there is supply of arms to parties they might have been in touch with. It helped very much in destabilizing Pakistan (via TTP), and there have been some devastating attacks inside their country. Prior to IK's ouster, Pakistan was well on its way to form a proper axis with China and Russia. Chinese entry into Middle East (Iran and Saudi deal), and its BRI have also spooked USA for sure. What better way to cut this down to size, right at the starting point that is Pakistan from where it begins and is close to Chinese border itself?

Pakistan's economic problem has been properly utilized by US, in its plan to contain China. In a way Pakistan has been brow beaten by USA, to get back into its fold and away from China. It is also possible that USA will be getting a secret drone base in Balochistan (or already got access), to keep an eye on this region. India's own issues with USA is another reason, and then there is Iran. Pakistan is the perfect point, to keep an eye on Pakistan itself along with India/China/Iran.

The last article if you see, puts Pakistan on the list of 'Countries of particular interest to USA'. It feels like our region is going to see, lot of chaos in this power game that is starting again. Now I can be totally wrong in my reading, so will welcome any corrections. Thanks for reading

@vsdoc @Joe Shearer @Guru Dutt @onlinpunit @vkdindian @CallSignMaverick @spammmmer @Faceless @Nilgiri @nahtanbob @Barcid @Hari Sud @Archie @VersusChristi @BhootPishash @Pingle @kambhakt @Guynextdoor @Surya2023 @Vikramaditya1 @pikkuboss @Sam. @RescueRanger @_NOBODY_ @Fatman17 @Oscar @Baali Jutt @FuturePAF @Zarvan

 

[vsdoc]

Rohit asked: What security implications do you see by the presence of PLA or the Chinese army in the Pakistan occupied Kashmir? | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

Priyanka Singh replies: In recent past, there has been extensive reportage on the possible presence of PLA (Peoples’ Liberation Army) soldiers in Gilgit Baltistan region of PoK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir). In October 2011, Chief of the Indian Army, General V.K. Singh, also endorsed this...

idsa.in

Chinese PLA surveys villages and military posts in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir

www.deccanherald.com

China may be looking at setting up a military base in Pakistan's Gwadar - Times of India

Pakistan News: Beijing recently announced that it is looking to "expand into new fields of military cooperation" with Islamabad, raising global concerns that the Peo

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Why Was the US Ambassador’s Visit to Gwadar Important?

After staying away from Balochistan for over 15 years, the United States is showing increasing interest in the strategic, China-funded and operated port of Gwadar.

thediplomat.com

India takes note of Pak Army chief's meetings in Washington

akistani Army chief General Asim Munir met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defence Llyod J Austin, Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer and Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Q Brown.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Will Pakistan offer drone bases to US to target terror outfits?

Balochistan caretaker Information Minister Jan Achakzai on Wednesday (Dec 13) posted on X and subsequently deleted a series of proposed actions in response to a deadly terror attack on a military camp. Achakzai suggested that Pakistan should offer "drone bases to target militant sanctuaries in...

www.wionews.com

Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Deadly Bombings in Iran

The group, which has struck before in Iran, has a long history of division with the country.

www.nytimes.com

US Designates China, Pakistan As "Countries of Particular Concern"

The US has designated China, North Korea, and Pakistan as "Countries of Particular Concern" for engaging in and tolerating "particularly severe violations of religious freedom."

www.ndtv.com

Am posting here few articles, just to given a chronology of events happening around India. This is to give an idea of recent events, between US and Pakistan. Pakistan is a sovereign nation, and has every right to take its own decisions first of all. However as a neighbor, India will be keeping a watch as there will be effects of short and long term significance for us. I believe Pakistan will be doing the same, so this is just an attempt to understand what might be happening and can affect us. Having said that:

I believe that Mr Munir's visit to USA isn't just to get their blessing, to continue in his current position. Given Pakistan's economic issues, and Chinese slowing down in further investments into CPEC, and taking time to rolling over the loans (which happened eventually, post Western approval and then Saudi help) Pakistan is re-aligning towards West now. Considering US and Chinese duking it out, Pakistan seems to be back in significance.

I have attached few articles, at the time when CPEC was in full swing. Back in 2011 and 2012 PLA soldiers seemed to have been spotted, in Gligit Baltistan. General Jacob from India seemed to have written a article on this, but India just didn't make any noise on this (not sure if some discussions happened, but nothing in public). Its not a secret that Chinese to secure their energy supply, have been working on getting a route through Pakistan (to avoid Malacca Straits). If this happens US will not be able to contain China, so making sure this doesn't happen is but logical.

In light of above, its very much possible that US's hasty retreat (where they left back billions of dollars worth arms and ammunitions), was no mistake. They seemed to have done this, to make sure there is supply of arms to parties they might have been in touch with. It helped very much in destabilizing Pakistan (via TTP), and there have been some devastating attacks inside their country. Prior to IK's ouster, Pakistan was well on its way to form a proper axis with China and Russia. Chinese entry into Middle East (Iran and Saudi deal), and its BRI have also spooked USA for sure. What better way to cut this down to size, right at the starting point that is Pakistan from where it begins and is close to Chinese border itself?

Pakistan's economic problem has been properly utilized by US, in its plan to contain China. In a way Pakistan has been brow beaten by USA, to get back into its fold and away from China. It is also possible that USA will be getting a secret drone base in Balochistan (or already got access), to keep an eye on this region. India's own issues with USA is another reason, and then there is Iran. Pakistan is the perfect point, to keep an eye on Pakistan itself along with India/China/Iran.

The last article if you see, puts Pakistan on the list of 'Countries of particular interest to USA'. It feels like our region is going to see, lot of chaos in this power game that is starting again. Now I can be totally wrong in my reading, so will welcome any corrections. Thanks for reading

@vsdoc @Joe Shearer @Guru Dutt @onlinpunit @vkdindian @CallSignMaverick @spammmmer @Faceless @Nilgiri @nahtanbob @Barcid @Hari Sud @Archie @VersusChristi @BhootPishash @Pingle @kambhakt @Guynextdoor @Surya2023 @Vikramaditya1 @pikkuboss @Sam. @RescueRanger @_NOBODY_ @Fatman17 @Oscar @Baali Jutt @FuturePAF @Zarvan

The US Navy has always wanted a presence of domination in the Indian Ocean.

Them being "friends" with India queers the pitch for them and limits their surface maneuvers to maritime exercises.

On China, I told a Pakistani friend recently. That if Pakistan implodes, socially and economically, helped by sectarian and ethnic cleave lines that are old and deep, it will be a race between the Indian Army moving in and the Chinese taking over.

Cheers, Doc

 

[karma]

Rohit asked: What security implications do you see by the presence of PLA or the Chinese army in the Pakistan occupied Kashmir? | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

Priyanka Singh replies: In recent past, there has been extensive reportage on the possible presence of PLA (Peoples’ Liberation Army) soldiers in Gilgit Baltistan region of PoK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir). In October 2011, Chief of the Indian Army, General V.K. Singh, also endorsed this...

idsa.in

Chinese PLA surveys villages and military posts in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir

www.deccanherald.com

China may be looking at setting up a military base in Pakistan's Gwadar - Times of India

Pakistan News: Beijing recently announced that it is looking to "expand into new fields of military cooperation" with Islamabad, raising global concerns that the Peo

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Why Was the US Ambassador’s Visit to Gwadar Important?

After staying away from Balochistan for over 15 years, the United States is showing increasing interest in the strategic, China-funded and operated port of Gwadar.

thediplomat.com

India takes note of Pak Army chief's meetings in Washington

akistani Army chief General Asim Munir met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defence Llyod J Austin, Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer and Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Q Brown.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Will Pakistan offer drone bases to US to target terror outfits?

Balochistan caretaker Information Minister Jan Achakzai on Wednesday (Dec 13) posted on X and subsequently deleted a series of proposed actions in response to a deadly terror attack on a military camp. Achakzai suggested that Pakistan should offer "drone bases to target militant sanctuaries in...

www.wionews.com

Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Deadly Bombings in Iran

The group, which has struck before in Iran, has a long history of division with the country.

www.nytimes.com

US Designates China, Pakistan As "Countries of Particular Concern"

The US has designated China, North Korea, and Pakistan as "Countries of Particular Concern" for engaging in and tolerating "particularly severe violations of religious freedom."

www.ndtv.com

Am posting here few articles, just to given a chronology of events happening around India. This is to give an idea of recent events, between US and Pakistan. Pakistan is a sovereign nation, and has every right to take its own decisions first of all. However as a neighbor, India will be keeping a watch as there will be effects of short and long term significance for us. I believe Pakistan will be doing the same, so this is just an attempt to understand what might be happening and can affect us. Having said that:

I believe that Mr Munir's visit to USA isn't just to get their blessing, to continue in his current position. Given Pakistan's economic issues, and Chinese slowing down in further investments into CPEC, and taking time to rolling over the loans (which happened eventually, post Western approval and then Saudi help) Pakistan is re-aligning towards West now. Considering US and Chinese duking it out, Pakistan seems to be back in significance.

I have attached few articles, at the time when CPEC was in full swing. Back in 2011 and 2012 PLA soldiers seemed to have been spotted, in Gligit Baltistan. General Jacob from India seemed to have written a article on this, but India just didn't make any noise on this (not sure if some discussions happened, but nothing in public). Its not a secret that Chinese to secure their energy supply, have been working on getting a route through Pakistan (to avoid Malacca Straits). If this happens US will not be able to contain China, so making sure this doesn't happen is but logical.

In light of above, its very much possible that US's hasty retreat (where they left back billions of dollars worth arms and ammunitions), was no mistake. They seemed to have done this, to make sure there is supply of arms to parties they might have been in touch with. It helped very much in destabilizing Pakistan (via TTP), and there have been some devastating attacks inside their country. Prior to IK's ouster, Pakistan was well on its way to form a proper axis with China and Russia. Chinese entry into Middle East (Iran and Saudi deal), and its BRI have also spooked USA for sure. What better way to cut this down to size, right at the starting point that is Pakistan from where it begins and is close to Chinese border itself?

Pakistan's economic problem has been properly utilized by US, in its plan to contain China. In a way Pakistan has been brow beaten by USA, to get back into its fold and away from China. It is also possible that USA will be getting a secret drone base in Balochistan (or already got access), to keep an eye on this region. India's own issues with USA is another reason, and then there is Iran. Pakistan is the perfect point, to keep an eye on Pakistan itself along with India/China/Iran.

The last article if you see, puts Pakistan on the list of 'Countries of particular interest to USA'. It feels like our region is going to see, lot of chaos in this power game that is starting again. Now I can be totally wrong in my reading, so will welcome any corrections. Thanks for reading

@vsdoc @Joe Shearer @Guru Dutt @onlinpunit @vkdindian @CallSignMaverick @spammmmer @Faceless @Nilgiri @nahtanbob @Barcid @Hari Sud @Archie @VersusChristi @BhootPishash @Pingle @kambhakt @Guynextdoor @Surya2023 @Vikramaditya1 @pikkuboss @Sam. @RescueRanger @_NOBODY_ @Fatman17 @Oscar @Baali Jutt @FuturePAF @Zarvan

US wants democracy works in Pakistan .After elections on 8th feb things will be better .

 

[indushek]

US wants democracy works in Pakistan .After elections on 8th feb things will be better .

I wonder if the elections will take place, now that PTI has refused the IMF deal. If things went fair, they are the ones who will most probably take power.

 

[indushek]

The US Navy has always wanted a presence of domination in the Indian Ocean.

Them being "friends" with India queers the pitch for them and limits their surface maneuvers to maritime exercises.

On China, I told a Pakistani friend recently. That if Pakistan implodes, socially and economically, helped by sectarian and ethnic cleave lines that are old and deep, it will be a race between the Indian Army moving in and the Chinese taking over.

Cheers, Doc

Its being said by multiple retired Army officers, who are on youtube these days that

PLA already has about 60K or so soldiers inside Pakistan (in particular GB and Balochistan), which cannot be verified of course. We are actually late if that were to ever happen (but USA won't be allowing it, in near future).

 

[Khansaheeb]

US wants democracy works in Pakistan .After elections on 8th feb things will be better .

No, when the US attacks Iran they want to make sure Pakistan is under the thumb , what we have seen in many banana republics before.

 

[vsdoc]

Its being said by multiple retired Army officers, who are on youtube these days that

PLA already has about 60K or so soldiers inside Pakistan (in particular GB and Balochistan), which cannot be verified of course. We are actually late if that were to ever happen (but USA won't be allowing it, in near future).

The game is not GB.

China desperately needs (thirsting for) warm water access.

Same reason why the USSR invaded godforsaken Afghanistan.

GB is only their forward staging area. Which Beijing needs.

New Delhi does not need a forward staging area.

As I said, it will be a race. Much like that for Kashmir in 47.

Cheers, Doc

 

[indushek]

No, when the US attacks Iran they want to make sure Pakistan is under the thumb , what we have seen in many banana republics before.

That's what am wondering about

If you see the article about, who took responsibility for blast in Iran.. its Islamic State. There have been mention about CIA having their hands, in this group too. If USA is in Balochistan, perhaps works are on for something big in the region with Iran.

 

[indushek]

The game is not GB.

China desperately needs (thirsting for) warm water access.

Same reason why the USSR invaded godforsaken Afghanistan.

GB is only their forward staging area. Which Beijing needs.

New Delhi does not need a forward staging area.

As I said, it will be a race. Much like that for Kashmir in 47.

Cheers, Doc

I agree GB isn't the main target, but Gwadar (vis a vis Djibouti) and then Iran along with China. Will have to see, how this next decade unfolds.

 

[vsdoc]

I agree GB isn't the main target, but Gwadar (vis a vis Djibouti) and then Iran along with China. Will have to see, how this next decade unfolds.

India's only threat in the Indian Ocean, always has been and will be for the foreseeable future, is our "friend".

Cheers, Doc

 

[Sharma Ji]

The Khan administration had almost parted ways with the US, in a sense. There was a lot of pullback, statements were made, he was steering them away from uncle Sam's waters and toward the Chinese bay.

His generals didn't like it.

China desperately needs (thirsting for) warm water access.

Are you mistaking them for Russia, for whom Crimea was a jugular (or more important) vein ?

China realize that a CPEC will only offer them limited gains. Oil toh transport kar nahi sakte, not in the way large vessels can, cost effectively.

There is, however, the looming spectre of the US and other navies choking their oil in Malacca and other points. Thbhi toh nuclear submarines bhejte rehte Colombo and Karachi.

China is at the world's mercy in a way in which they can not respond.. its like a death lock, they know it, the US knows it.

 

[indushek]

The Khan administration had almost parted ways with the US, in a sense. There was a lot of pullback, statements were made, he was steering them away from uncle Sam's waters and toward the Chinese bay.

His generals didn't like it.

Are you mistaking them for Russia, for whom Crimea was a jugular (or more important) vein ?

China realize that a CPEC will only offer them limited gains. Oil toh transport kar nahi sakte, not in the way large vessels can, cost effectively.

There is, however, the looming spectre of the US and other navies choking their oil in Malacca and other points. Thbhi toh nuclear submarines bhejte rehte Colombo and Karachi.

China is at the world's mercy in a way in which they can not respond.. its like a death lock, they know it, the US knows it.

You just negated your point Sharma ji

By what you wrote about Malacca straits having the issue of getting choked, they do need access to a route that can't be choked. Gwadar/CPEC will give them that.

 

[vsdoc]

The Khan administration had almost parted ways with the US, in a sense. There was a lot of pullback, statements were made, he was steering them away from uncle Sam's waters and toward the Chinese bay.

His generals didn't like it.

Are you mistaking them for Russia, for whom Crimea was a jugular (or more important) vein ?

China realize that a CPEC will only offer them limited gains. Oil toh transport kar nahi sakte, not in the way large vessels can, cost effectively.

There is, however, the looming spectre of the US and other navies choking their oil in Malacca and other points. Thbhi toh nuclear submarines bhejte rehte Colombo and Karachi.

China is at the world's mercy in a way in which they can not respond.. its like a death lock, they know it, the US knows it.

You've answered your own question Sharma ji.

Im not confusing the USSR and China.

80% of world maritime trade traverses the Indian Ocean.

Who controls the Indian Ocean is a boss.

Cheers, Doc

 

[vsdoc]

You just negated your point Sharma ji

By what you wrote about Malacca straits having the issue of getting choked, they do need access to a route that can't be choked. Gwadar/CPEC will give them that.

Aap ne mujhe maar diya aapke speed typing se.

 

[Sharma Ji]

this:

vs

economy of scale..

besides, all their major population and industrial base is located on their far east coast: