Why the Afghan Taliban won the Afghanistan war against USA (2001-2021)

The Taliban are adept in the art of guerilla warfare and can utilize regional topography to such ends effectively. But they have NO battlefield victories over NATO forces to write much about. The US-led forces overthrew the Taliban regime in Afghanistan for hosting the Al-Qaeda Network in 2001 (Toppling the Taliban). The US-led forces also defeated the Al-Qaeda Network in the Shah-i-Kot Valley in 2002 (Operation Anaconda: see this and this). The US also used drones and special forces to assassinate scores of Al-Qaeda operatives who had fled to Pakistan including Osama Bin Laden in 2011. Pakistani forces arrested yet more Al-Qaeda operatives and handed them over to the US from time to time.

The Taliban regrouped in Pashtun tribal areas to challenge the US-backed Afghan government. They also created the TTP in 2007 to make it difficult for Pakistan to establish writ of the state in Pashtun tribal areas of Pakistan. However, the Taliban lost a large number of fighters in clashes over the years:

Screenshot 2025-04-26 154917.png
(Watson Institute)

- and agreed to negotiate with the US to bring an end to war in 2020:

US - Taliban deal.png
(Doha Accords)

The US has solved its problem in the region but the Taliban regime in Afghanistan continues to host the TTP - a group that is responsible for many deaths in Pakistan. This shows that Pakistan does not have strategic depth in Afghanistan and India can take advantage of this deficit to undermine Pakistan.

Pakistan has no choice but to monitor developments in Afghanistan and find a solution for the TTP. If Pakistan cannot solve this problem by itself then Pakistan should discuss this matter with the US as a contingency measure. The US does not have direct access to Afghanistan and less likely to influence Afghan politics after negotiations with the Taliban in Doha Accords. However, the US killed Ayman al Zawahiri in Afghanistan in 2022. This shows that the US is willing to take action to eliminate a threat to its interests in the region. Perhaps the US and Pakistan can come up with a joint plan to defeat the TTP and hold the Taliban regime to account on Doha Accords.


The Anti-American rhetoric is not helpful. India wants to drive a wedge between the US and Pakistan in its attempt to isolate Pakistan and find it easier to use the TTP to undermine Pakistan. Pakistan must learn from its past mistakes and reduce Indian options to undermine Pakistan.
 
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