Yemen Civil War News and Discussion.. an evolving situation

[hyperman]

Those Yemenis just can't stop fighting each other

Its complicated based on religious and even regional/political lines.

But to put it simply its 3 main factions, the Houthis(Shia Zaydi) backed by Iran, The STC Zionists(backed by UAE and Israel) and the techically "official" govt(backed by the Saudis)

 

[Persian Gulf]

This zionist STC needs to be crushed, I hope the Saudis come to their senses and actually deal with these people. Houthis are not going to be able to gain ground in non Zaydi areas, but a Sunni groups coming along and crushing the Emirati backed STC serves everyone's interests. These guys helping Israel control the Islands and receiving Israeli advisors and intelligence help.

the Saudi backed faction is very close to the West and is most willing to fight Ansarallah for Israel

the UAE has the most malicious methods with occupying islands

Ansarallah already reached all the way down to Aden before, triggering the massive Arab coalition invasion to push them back

Yemen is trending towards pre-1990 situation with north mountain groups (Ansarallah) and separatist Yemenis in the south (STC). I don't really see a place for the Saudi backed former government in this.

 

[hyperman]

the Saudi backed faction is very close to the West and is most willing to fight Ansarallah for Israel

the UAE has the most malicious methods with occupying islands

Ansarallah already reached all the way down to Aden before, triggering the massive Arab coalition invasion to push them back

Yemen is trending towards pre-1990 situation with north mountain groups (Ansarallah) and separatist Yemenis in the south (STC). I don't really see a place for the Saudi backed former government in this.

The areas Valuable to Israel in any strategic way is all held by the Pro Emirati faction, not the Saudi faction in red. That would be the coastline.

The Blue, yellow and Orange are all UAE backed.

even though Houthis fought a lot with the Saudi backed, right now neither has interest in breaking the ceasefire.

 

[Foinikas]

Its complicated based on religious and even regional/political lines.

But to put it simply its 3 main factions, the Houthis(Shia Zaydi) backed by Iran, The STC Zionists(backed by UAE and Israel) and the techically "official" govt(backed by the Saudis)

Yes I know the factions,but what feels so weird is how they've always been fighting each other

 

[Foinikas]

I think Saudi backed the wrong horse. The Hadi camp (well, no longer Hadi anymore) don't have much support in the south, and the STC are very well armed

Hadi camp fought Ansarallah a lot, and lost badly, and only managed to push Ansarallah back with the entire Arab coalition getting involved. Ansarallah rarely fought against the STC, so they probably suffered less attrition.

Yemen was divided until 1990, south Yemenis naturally lean towards STC, and Ansarallah controls the north (with 70%+ of the population). there isn't much room for another group. except in the sparsely population east of the country, which is full of terrorists.

Very well-said there.

 

[Persian Gulf]

View attachment 163343

The areas Valuable to Israel in any strategic way is all held by the Pro Emirati faction, not the Saudi faction in red. That would be the coastline.

The Blue, yellow and Orange are all UAE backed.

even though Houthis fought a lot with the Saudi backed, right now neither has interest in breaking the ceasefire.

the valuable areas are the north mountains with underground missile bases and closest to Israel, those are Ansarallah's heartland.

then the Hodeida port and coast area to control imports for smuggling and to run the actual economy of Yemen. ironically UAE backed forces were in control of Hodeida but randomly decided to withdraw a while ago, and Ansarallah happily took over. Ansarallah controls enough of the coast line close enough to the strait to disrupt shipping, so it's sufficient for them. the UAE forces there are very competent and not easy for Ansarallah to defeat.

the only important area that Ansarallah failed to capture was Marib, since that is where the majority of Yemen's oil is located. they were making good progress in encircling Marib but then the ceasefire came into force so they couldn't take it in time.

we already see in this photo the situation I envisaged: Ansarallah in control of 70%+ of the major cities and population of Yemen, separatist STC forces control the south including Aden, and the government nominally controls large empty wastelands of the east (the map doesn't show that these areas have large pockets controlled by al Qaeda too). you can see from the size of the circles on the map that the only significant cities not controlled by Ansarallah are Taiz (contested and encircled by Ansarallah) and Aden (controlled by STC now).

any future offensive by ANsarallah will likely focus on Taiz and Marib, they are both already encircled. but probably not south of Hodeida as the UAE forces there are too powerful and it's not worth risking losing Hodeida.

 

[Persian Gulf]

when I talk about South Yemen and STC being separatists, this is what I mean

STC and Ansarallah can coexist since their natural bases are in line with pre-1990 north and South Yemen.

the only one that can't coexist in this equation is the deposed Saudi backed former regime, which is why they are being devoured by the STC in the south.

 

[Persian Gulf]

almost exact mirror image! it's not a coincidence.

 

[Foinikas]

View attachment 163412
View attachment 163413

almost exact mirror image! it's not a coincidence.

We're back to the Cold War era....

 

[_Arabia_]

We are already deeply engrained within Yemen with numerous military bases (likely permanent) and control of numerous Yemeni islands as well as all the areas where most of Yemen's resources are located. Deep ties with the tribes of Hadhramaut and most of Yemen.

Yemen cannot function as a successful state without KSA. Due to geography, shared ancient history, language, culture, ethnicity, religion and close tribal and clan ties this will always be the case.

The STC, which KSA also has ties to and with many powerful individuals within being directly allied with KSA, is just a pro-South Yemen independence group in terms of ideology. They want to rule their own fiefdom outside of Sana'a control, currently occupied by the Houthi cult. After all they control all the main resources of Yemen and most of the strategic coastline of the country.

Which ironically will only lead to the fragmentation of Yemen and I personally predict that it is very likely for South Yemen and Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra province to be swallowed up by KSA eventually. Which would suit KSA very well and give us a direct access to the Arabian Sea and wider Indian Ocean.

In fact many people of Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra want to join KSA and have pledged for help in this endeavor.

Personally I am all for implementing steps that foster the integration and unity of Arabia.

Anyway KSA and UAE will find a compromise that will satisfy both parties and due to geography and the other reasons I gave earlier, KSA will always be the most influential country in regard to Yemen and all of the Arabian Peninsula and vicinity.

Even more so given the impressive economic, industrial, scientific, demographical, military etc. rise of KSA.

 

[muhammed45]

We are already deeply engrained within Yemen with numerous military bases (likely permanent) and control of numerous Yemeni islands as well as all the areas where most of Yemen's resources are located. Deep ties with the tribes of Hadhramaut and most of Yemen.

Yemen cannot function as a successful state without KSA. Due to geography, shared ancient history, language, culture, ethnicity, religion and close tribal and clan ties this will always be the case.

The STC, which KSA also has ties to and with many powerful individuals within being directly allied with KSA, is just a pro-South Yemen independence group in terms of ideology. They want to rule their own fiefdom outside of Sana'a control, currently occupied by the Houthi cult. After all they control all the main resources of Yemen and most of the strategic coastline of the country.

Which ironically will only lead to the fragmentation of Yemen and I personally predict that it is very likely for South Yemen and Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra province to be swallowed up by KSA eventually. Which would suit KSA very well and give us a direct access to the Arabian Sea and wider Indian Ocean.

In fact many people of Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra want to join KSA and have pledged for help in this endeavor.

Personally I am all for implementing steps that foster the integration and unity of Arabia.

Anyway KSA and UAE will find a compromise that will satisfy both parties and due to geography and the other reasons I gave earlier, KSA will always be the most influential country in regard to Yemen and all of the Arabian Peninsula and vicinity.

Even more so given the impressive economic, industrial, scientific, demographical, military etc. rise of KSA.

You wish?

KSA's stupid policies led to losing those sensitive islands to UAE and then to Israel. You spoke of your dreams but in the real world, UAE has granted administration of those islands to Israel- USA axis of evil.

Instead of trying to take on Yemen for almost a century, KSA should've tried to take control of UAE by force. It was the only way to get rid of threat to KSA's dominance in the respective area.

Yemen has never been a threat to Najd and Hijaz for hundreds of years.

 

[_Arabia_]

You wish?

KSA's stupid policies led to losing those sensitive islands to UAE and then to Israel. You spoke of your dreams but in the real world, UAE has granted administration of those islands to Israel- USA axis of evil.

Instead of trying to take on Yemen for almost a century, KSA should've tried to take control of UAE by force. It was the only way to get rid of threat to KSA's dominance in the respective area.

Yemen has never been a threat to Najd and Hijaz for hundreds of years.

UAE is not a real country and will be annexed again by KSA eventually in the future. Same goes for Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar. Those countries/territories have been part of ancient civilizations, cultures, empires, caliphates, kingdoms etc. founded by people from KSA or based in KSA for over 10.000 years. Since the first advanced cultures on earth (Natufian) emerged.

Natufian culture - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It was always a largely unimportant part of Arabia. To this day they (UAE) barely have 2 million native people for a reason.

Israel, another millennia old Arabian colony, is of no importance here. They are not a threat for KSA, never been and never will be.

UAE will be dealt with eventually if they cross certain limits.

KSA was always in favor of the unification of Yemen while other actors, Houthis included, wanted their own fiefdoms. If Yemenis are this stupid to disintegrate their country, KSA will not sit idle.

And things are already happening/being sorted out.

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[PakAl]

the Saudi backed faction is very close to the West and is most willing to fight Ansarallah for Israel

the UAE has the most malicious methods with occupying islands

Ansarallah already reached all the way down to Aden before, triggering the massive Arab coalition invasion to push them back

Yemen is trending towards pre-1990 situation with north mountain groups (Ansarallah) and separatist Yemenis in the south (STC). I don't really see a place for the Saudi backed former government in this.

There are many players in Yemen. Iran backs the Houthi Zaidis who are anti zionists but are not extremists.
Saudia/Qatar/Usa/Turkey back the wahabis and Ikhwanis who are like Jolani types, extremist terorrists.
STC are anti Islamist and are secular nationalists backed by UAE.

I think a deal can be made by Ansarallah and STC, to kick all the terrorists out of Yemen, bring a unity government friendly with all. But Saudia will never accept this, they want puppets in power, and not nationalists or anti zionist factions.

 

[Persian Gulf]

There are many players in Yemen. Iran backs the Houthi Zaidis who are anti zionists but are not extremists.
Saudia/Qatar/Usa/Turkey back the wahabis and Ikhwanis who are like Jolani types, extremist terorrists.
STC are anti Islamist and are secular nationalists backed by UAE.

I think a deal can be made by Ansarallah and STC, to kick all the terrorists out of Yemen, bring a unity government friendly with all. But Saudia will never accept this, they want puppets in power, and not nationalists or anti zionist factions.

yes, the natural and inevitable outcome in Yemen is exactly as you say, returning to pre-1990 borders of north and South Yemen.

 

[PakAl]

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Saudi UAE proxy war now heating up.

This is good for Turkey, Turkey should throw its weight behind Saudi, the more intense the clash between the Saudis and Emiratis, the more the Emiratis will be isolated, with only Israel backing them.

Turkey supports the Ikhwani Islah movement, so they are involved on the Saudi side but not yet a big player. The same method was followed in Syria where Saudi backed rebels and Turkish ones jointly finished off Assad.