One of the better analysis I’ve seen so far about Saudi Arabia’s failure to stop Houthi missile and drone attacks:
KSA: The vulnerability will continue, and there are few interceptors.
These are different situations. It was not Israel that intercepted the bulk of the Iranian missiles, but an entire U.S. defense network backed by NATO.
Radars installed in Gulf countries, American ships, and even systems in Turkey tracked the trajectory of Iranian missiles, generating predictions and selecting which systems would be used.
Israel only entered the equation when this entire network failed and the missiles reached Israeli airspace.
When Iran began destroying this American radar network, the success rate of its missiles rose significantly.
The distance from Iran to Israel, covered by this extensive monitoring, provided advantages that the Saudis do not have, I’m talking about tracking, predictions, and especially reaction time. Even so, Iranian missiles still achieved success with maneuvers that struck targets in Israel.
Interception rates against the Houthis will not improve, and these missiles operate in saturation attacks coordinated with large numbers of drones.
To make matters worse, the Saudis currently have no more than 350–500 interceptors, when they would need at least three times that number to deal with what the Houthis possess, and even then with no guarantee of success.
There is nothing Bin Salman can do. He will not accept any agreement that unifies Yemen under Houthi rule. Nor is it within his power to end the war without an agreement between Iran and Trump.
Everything in this theater has Iran’s hand behind it, as I have already detailed in previous articles.
Can the Turks and Pakistanis declare war and attack the Yemenis? And what would they gain from it? Saudi billions?
In that scenario we would face a long war and the economic strangulation of Saudi Arabia. Would the Saudis draw that money from their sovereign wealth fund?
That would create more distrust and problems than solutions. Every scenario leads to destruction and heavy losses.
The Saudi offensive still has significant military potential, but will it operate with an economic knife at its throat?
Trump and Netanyahu are the ones who need to fix the problem they created, not only for the region, but for the world.
