Why an army chief as CDF fits Pakistan's strategic realities

[Vkdindian1]

It is always good to hear from our rivals!
BTW, the nuclear button will still NOT be in one person's hands. It has never been. Even in the most limited group of consultancy, which I believe were when Zia launched the coup against Bhutto or when Musharraf planned the Kargil operation, there were always a few around the Army Chief.

That’s good to hear.

But, problem with dictators is that they love to have a coterie of YES men around them. Musharraf launched Kargil just like that. No dissenting voices were entertained. And PM was obviously kept out of the loop till it was too late for anything.

Munir consolidating power to himself is just like any other dictator would do. But he has proven to be smarter than those by consolidating power very subtly and not as brazenly as in the past.

Nuclear button is just one of those things where a dictator is bad thing to happen. There are other worries too and Kargil comes to mind immediately.

 

[ACE OF HEARTS]

You can also become the:
1. Emperor
2. King of Kings
3. Sultan

But why does the servant of the people need lifetime immunity for ?

1. Has he broken any laws ?
2. Does he plan to break any laws?
3. Is he scared from someone even after Adding multiple titles / ranks to his name?

Nothing lasts forever.

 

[Watandar]

It streamlines our wartime decision making hierarchy, where we can seamlessly transition into the nuclear mode if needed. I believe this will regain our nuclear deterrence as the enemy (Indians) cannot rely upon disagreement among the NCA and find a way to wage a politically motivated PR stunt limited conflict like in May. It is in the hands of one man, if he goes crazy then Kaboom. This will also help deploy nukes upfront in an offensive role, for some posturing if needed, and prevent the conflict entirely.

When that one man is decapitated, or out of communication or incapacitated for some reason, then what happens ? You will get a paralyzed system that wont know what to do.

Is there a line of succession ?

 

[hnn]

in a tense and decisive situation, where decisions are to be made in minutes. Delegation of responsibility to assign importance to several tasks to one man, is not risky, it is also not practical..

by my understanding, this should result in more escalation matrices in more domains, leading to effectiveness..


more hands X more minds / time needed to decide = effective matrices

Exactly!
CDF is only going to choose and approve plans presented to him. He's not going to lay out the table himself and be like "let me tell you a story". In the May conflict, that's exactly how it was done. There were a couple of plans that he was reluctant towards but nonetheless didn't outrank those who presented those plans, and those plans were implemented effectively and he acknowledged the expertise of those under his command right after.

What the CDF appointment takes out of the equation is the politics involved in deciding upon the kind, scale, and timing of military response.

However, one can argue that lack of such civilian oversight could be the Achilles Heel of this ammendent but then again Pakistan Armed Forces isn't going around the world initiating wars (where the civilian oversight matters the most) - when it comes to defense the priority is to defend the territorial integrity.

On a side note, let's see if they restructure the military per Theatre Paradigm or Brigade Combat Teams Paradigm.

 

[Watandar]

But then again Pakistan Armed Forces isn't going around the world initiating wars (where the civilian oversight matters the most) -

bhai sahab what was Op Gibraltar and Op Koh e Paima ?

What would the result of Kargil be under this new CDF ? Back then when Kargil fiasco was finally revealed, Air Force chief said no, Naval chief said no, ISI chief said no and international community including China and Arabs told Pakistan its on its own. The few goof generals and Mr Musharraf were forced to back down.

In this new setup, Kargil scenario would have become a full blown war.

 

[hnn]

bhai sahab what was Op Gibraltar and Op Koh e Paima ?

What would the result of Kargil be under this new CDF ? Back then when Kargil fiasco was finally revealed, Air Force chief said no, Naval chief said no, ISI chief said no and international community including China and Arabs told Pakistan its on its own. The few goof generals and Mr Musharraf were forced to back down.

In this new setup, Kargil scenario would have become a full blown war.

CDF in turn can prevent the Kargil Fiasco altogether. Without going into lengthy details, with Kargil, the issue was that Air Force was kept in the blind. They were asked to fly to Skardu under the pretense of training and reconnaissance, and then later asked to provide cover for the army that had already infiltrated into Indian occupied lands. The Air Force denied to provide cover because they weren't equiped to do what they were asked to. With CDF, this is exactly what will be mitigated because the operational plans will be presented by the respective commanders. So no service will be blindly thrown into something that they aren't equipped for.

Similarly, in 1971, the PAF denial of providing cover to PN was again because the operational planning wasn't centralized.

WIth CDF, operational planning will be centralized and thus avoiding the circumstances where individual service branches are either caught by surprise or left on their own.

 

[Meengla]

However, one can argue that lack of such civilian oversight could be the Achilles Heel of this ammendent but then again Pakistan Armed Forces isn't going around the world initiating wars (where the civilian oversight matters the most) - when it comes to defense the priority is to defend the territorial integrity.

I recall a credible Indian analyst saying that the Indian Foreign Minister Jayshankar has been reduced to being just a 'Yes Man' because in the small decision making circle of PM Modi, Mr. Modi routinely sets aside others' advice. And thus you see the disaster called India's foreign policy for the last decade.

 

[Watandar]

CDF in turn can prevent the Kargil Fiasco altogether. Without going into lengthy details, with Kargil, the issue was that Air Force was kept in the blind. They were asked to fly to Skardu under the pretense of training and reconnaissance, and then later asked to provide cover for the army that had already infiltrated into Indian occupied lands. The Air Force denied to provide cover because they weren't equiped to do what they were asked to. With CDF, this is exactly what will be mitigated because the operational plans will be presented by the respective commanders. So no service will be blindly thrown into something that they aren't equipped for.

The Kargil plans were never presented to Corp Commanders, ISI chief, Air Force or Navy or Foreign Office or political government. It was all between army chief, Mr Musharraf, and 3 other generals. Only when matters went south did the everyone else find out.

The army chief is the CDF now. If him and a few buddies once again hatch a foolish plot and put it into motion, and SHTF, Pakistan is now bound to go to full blown war.

Ego and self preservation is always the first priority of Pakistani soldiers, bureaucrats and politicians. History tells us this over and over. Many Operations have also been launched in the past without taking most of the brass or civil service or politicians into confidence.

I fail to see how CDF setup would have handled Kargil or any of the other adventures better.

 

[hnn]

The Kargil plans were never presented to Corp Commanders, ISI chief, Air Force or Navy or Foreign Office or political government. It was all between army chief, Mr Musharraf, and 3 other generals. Only when matters went south did the everyone else find out.

The army chief is the CDF now. If him and a few buddies once again hatch a foolish plot and put it into motion, and SHTF, Pakistan is now bound to go to full blown war.

Ego and self preservation is always the first priority of Pakistani soldiers, bureaucrats and politicians.

The answer to this question is in your post already.

"Only when things went South"

The secrecy and blind sighting was because of the lack of operational integration and individual commanders acting on their own. CDF inherently means greater integration. It's why in my original post I mentioned the "Theatrization" and "BCT" paradigms. The restructuring and integration is what will mitigate such individual fiascos, where things are only found out by the rest when "they have already gone South".

 

[Meengla]

The answer to this question is in your post already.

"Only when things went South"

The secrecy and blind sighting was because of the lack of operational integration and individual commanders acting on their own. CDF inherently means greater integration. It's why in my original post I mentioned the "Theatrization" and "BCT" paradigms. The restructuring and integration is what will mitigate such individual fiascos, where things are only found out by the rest when "they have already gone South".

You have some very good posts on this!
I believe the changes are for:
1) Lessen the Civil-Military conflicts over the Army Chief's appointments and there is a long history of that.
2) Prepare for an inevitable conflict with India by streamlining some processes; the military must have seen some 'gaps' during the May 2025 conflict with India.
3) Take advantage of General Munir's wide engagements, even acceptance, by key global players in last 5-6 months.
4) Stamp down the military's authority over everything, even the Superior Courts, to pull Pakistan out of the 'do or die' situation; this is to be seen with the overall 27th Const. Amendments.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

It is always good to hear from our rivals!
BTW, the nuclear button will still NOT be in one person's hands. It has never been. Even in the most limited group of consultancy, which I believe were when Zia launched the coup against Bhutto or when Musharraf planned the Kargil operation, there were always a few around the Army Chief.

The Deep States. by definition, revolve around a "collective personality". In the words of Merhum Nejmettin Erbakan: In this Dave nobody lives only for himself....

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

You have some very good posts on this!
I believe the changes are for:
1) Lessen the Civil-Military conflicts over the Army Chief's appointments and there is a long history of that.
2) Prepare for an inevitable conflict with India by streamlining some processes; the military must have seen some 'gaps' during the May 2025 conflict with India.
3) Take advantage of General Munir's wide engagements, even acceptance, by key global players in last 5-6 months.
4) Stamp down the military's authority over everything, even the Superior Courts, to pull Pakistan out of the 'do or die' situation; this is to be seen with the overall 27th Const. Amendments.

+ controls over all financial affairs! As per media reports, ~70% of the Pak economy is undocumented, unregulated, untaxed, and based on ca$h. It's for a reason....

Pakistan is on a war footing. She has taken the Ram Rajya of Hindutva Bharat Company, under the Marwari/Parsi/Jain etc. tycoons, way too seriously....

Gujrat* hai to mumkin hai....

*Jinnah, Gandhi, Patel, Desai, Modi, Shah etc. are from Gujrat.

 

[hnn]

I recall a credible Indian analyst saying that the Indian Foreign Minister Jayshankar has been reduced to being just a 'Yes Man' because in the small decision making circle of PM Modi, Mr. Modi routinely sets aside others' advice. And thus you see the disaster called India's foreign policy for the last decade.

Yeah well Modi is 56 inch haha

I think what gets people confused about CDF is that they don't understand the structure of military especially when it comes to inter-services coordination. Currently the highest number of inter-services liason officers are serving at JS HQ (a HQ that doesn't involve operational planning). Previously, for troops on ground to request for even Artillery cover had to go through a long chain of command, which was even more cumbersome when requesting for Air cover. This was partially resolved during later stages of WoT when armed forces began to use designated officers as Artillery Observers who had the complete authority to provide the Artillery cover when needed. Similarly, the process for Air cover was somewhat improved with the inclusion of Air Force Liason Officer but it still remained a lengthy process.

With CDF, and centralized operational command, these issues will be mitigated further. The historical fiascos were committed because blind sighting was incorrectly thought to be the solution to get past these inter-services coordination problems, with having them jump in as SOS response, in hopes to force their hand but it didn't work out great. With a centralized operational command, there will no longer be the need to blind sight anyone as they are already involved in all of the planning.

The response in May conflict is the recent most example of such an integrated response - with CDF it is only going to get more smooth.

Another thing people might miss out on is that with CDF you only have one person who's accountable for all consequences, so blame game gets inherently thrown out of the equation. This singular accountability will make any CDF think more than once before going out on a personal ego stoking clandestine adventure.

 

[Meengla]

+ controls over all financial affairs! As per media reports, ~70% of the Pak economy is undocumented, unregulated, untaxed, and based on ca$h. It's for a reason....

Right.
I believe ALL provincial govts are put on a 'notice' to 'perform or perish'; the old Pakistan is dying, however slowly. There is attempt to document and digitize the economy. Just an anecdotal account: In my trip to Pakistan which ended about two months ago, I paid only 8% sales tax in a restaurant instead of 18% if I paid via credit card. Smart move to incentize people to use their card card and for the govt to collect taxes. There were other instances of digitization as well. I was actually quite impressed!!
But that's offtopic here.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Views from the other side of the fence:

Pakistan's Bill for Military Reforms is Not in Sync with Bunyan-un-Marsoos Verdict

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