Iranian Air Force (IRIAF/IRGC-ASF) | News and Discussions

[tsunset]

Iran should order at least 160 AI Controlled Kowsars MKIV+ Pro along with at least 40 Autopilot Q313 Block VI++ V.2

 

[Shags101]

Iran should order at least 160 AI Controlled Kowsars MKIV+ Pro along with at least 40 Autopilot Q313 Block VI++ V.2

Alright @Mr Iran Eye …………I’m telling you the military threads have been boring as of late I think people have to much time to make jokes

 

[Immortals]

In modern conflicts/wars, air forces will be rendered useless against any enemy with capable missile forces like that of Iran and Israel. In the next elongated war, both sides will lose 4.5 to 5th gen fighters on ground or the expensive auxiliary ones at the very least.

Israel didn’t loose a single fighter on the ground despite Iran launching over 700 ballistic missiles and countless drones in the war.

Calculate how many missiles Iran would need to turn Gaza into what Israel did. israel has dropped 100,000 tons. And that’s just a tiny 360 KM^2 patch of land.

Iran’s missiles are not strong enough to pierce the Western shield without wasting hundreds of missiles in the process to score <10% hits of varying degrees of accuracy.

And it’s only going to get more difficult. The U.S. just gave out 3 Major contracts for early warning missile satellites to be manufactured by 3 different companies with a total of nearly 60 missile tracking satellites. And that’s only what’s been made public and not classified military programs.

More satellites means more time to monitor Iranian (or Chinese) missiles as they travel in space or in the upper atmosphere — in real time.

If Iran had 100,000 missiles you could say the numbers favor Iran, regardless of what the west does.

But with an inventory likely less than 7,000 missiles. Iran cannot operate a sustained conflict (months or years) for long. We saw that in 12 day war as missile salvo rates got smaller and smaller. A future war where Iran fires 20-30 missiles a day isn’t going to strategically hurt Israel or the West.

And if one day the West figures out the interceptor Missile supply and cost issue (which I imagine is something the West is actively aiming to resolve) , than Iran is gonna have a lot of issues.

The most critical mistake Iran can make is if it thinks its missiles can outlast the Israeli shield. Just like this idiot government thought it’s oil was always going to be an untouchable and needed commodity to the West.

More Oghab-44 like underground bases need to be made that can house all of these prized fighters. I dont know the capacity of Oghab-44 and the other suspected ones but in future IRIAF will have ~100 new + MLUed airframes. So 3 more will be required at the very least to just keep the SU-35S fleet.

That’s useless if Iran cannot keep the entrances opened. Israel will just bomb the entrances and now your entire airforce is buried.

And the 12 day war showed that Iran cannot open the bases fast enough and get the base operating.

Then there is the problem of jet fuel and PGMs that need to be protected and stored and resupplied. Even 200 sorties a day would wipe out a bases resources quickly and it’s doubtful iran would be able to resupply. Add in spare parts and mechanics needed to keep airframes worthy.

Not impossible, but extremely difficult with this incompetent military brass.

I remember I would tell people on here we need S-400 and S-500 as the S-300 order was much too small for a country the size of Iran. And all the ‘Everything is Awesome’ crowd on here said that Iran doesn’t need any more Russian systems and that it has Bavar and Khordad systems…..yeah we saw how that went.

Iran needs an OVER saturated air defense. Because it will lose air defenses over time during a conflict and cannot be assuming it can cover its airspace with what a country that is always in peace time would (ie Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, UAE).

This is basic logic that this military brass and leadership in Iran failed to grasp.

 

[ToddE]

Israel didn’t loose a single fighter on the ground despite Iran launching over 700 ballistic missiles and countless drones in the war.

Calculate how many missiles Iran would need to turn Gaza into what Israel did. israel has dropped 100,000 tons. And that’s just a tiny 360 KM^2 patch of land.

Iran’s missiles are not strong enough to pierce the Western shield without wasting hundreds of missiles in the process to score <10% hits of varying degrees of accuracy.

And it’s only going to get more difficult. The U.S. just gave out 3 Major contracts for early warning missile satellites to be manufactured by 3 different companies with a total of nearly 60 missile tracking satellites. And that’s only what’s been made public and not classified military programs.

More satellites means more time to monitor Iranian (or Chinese) missiles as they travel in space or in the upper atmosphere — in real time.

If Iran had 100,000 missiles you could say the numbers favor Iran, regardless of what the west does.

But with an inventory likely less than 7,000 missiles. Iran cannot operate a sustained conflict (months or years) for long. We saw that in 12 day war as missile salvo rates got smaller and smaller. A future war where Iran fires 20-30 missiles a day isn’t going to strategically hurt Israel or the West.

And if one day the West figures out the interceptor Missile supply and cost issue (which I imagine is something the West is actively aiming to resolve) , than Iran is gonna have a lot of issues.

The most critical mistake Iran can make is if it thinks its missiles can outlast the Israeli shield. Just like this idiot government thought it’s oil was always going to be an untouchable and needed commodity to the West.

You are assuming that missile strike capability is a stagnant which is just not true. In TP1 IRGCASF's 9 missiles got through, many were jammed, intercepted both endo-atmospherically. In TP2 Rate of penetration increased but damage was not there, probably deliberately. In TP3, we saw penetration, impacts, damage, we saw tit-for-tat reciprocating strikes for critical targets which led to deterrence being established to some degree (oil infrastructure, HQs etc). IRGCASF despite coming from dysfunctional system of IRI, is a learning force, they are a large, well funded and high tech force unlike IRIAF. To my own personal surprise, they have started to stay quiet about their capabilities as well, post Hajizadeh. Since war, their budget has supposedly been increased three times, they have quietly upgraded Emad MaRV to Etemad with CPRA, TEL strategy has been changed to cheaper monorail system for mobile spread out system, new bases are being excavated, new unanounced tests have been carried out as well apparently. I am not saying its enough, I am saying they are not sitting on their asses like IRIAF.

Comparing tonnages of PGMs dropped on Gaza is relevant IMO. Its a defenseless strip inside Israeli territory, which Israel can even pound with their artillery if they want. You are comparing Gaza with multilayered defended Israeli airspace located 1600 KM from Iran. The real ratio of warhead struck in 12 day war has been 4-5 Tonnes daily for IRGCASF vs 10-25 for IAF. Thats exactly the ratio of how much damage an attack aircraft causes compared to missile strike. IRGC will need close to 100-150 missile hits just to match single sortie of a single squadron of F-15i. Iran has no airforce so this will stay same. Compensation however can be made by changing tactics, going after variety of targets etc which they kinda did at the end. Iranian armed forces have no other option.

Missiles strike effectiveness is not measured in their strength, IRGCASF was mistakenly wasting wasting hundreds of missiles going after hardened and layered defended military targets while Israelis did not care for civilian casualties inside Iran. Only during the mid-war IRGCASF turned its attention to expand their target menu. Bazan attack, Eshkol, Weizmann, Gav Yam Negev, Beersehaba came after this, leading to ~2000 injuries alone in these attacks (censored Israeli numbers), a gag order had to be issued by Israeli government to hide damage/casualties and eventually this led to ceasefire. This should have been done at start to bring the enemy morale down. Armed forces of Iran did not understand their own and enemy capabilities pre-war IMO so initially they were fighting in enemy chosen domains. Only after they started striking more critical targets, the deterence started to be established otherwise what really stopped Israel from attacking oil terminals, nuclear domes, power plants, economic or political institutions otherwise ? only answer: their fear of being attacked in return. Its called deterence which prevents wars.

US already searches and tracks Iranian missiles as soon as they get into their boost stage. US have sats above and search n track assets spread all over US/Jew controlled Arab countries. Patarames, even though has become an IRGC mouth piece, has done a very informative video on this. This real time search and track data is fed to Israeli ABM/AD shield so Israelis do not even need to track targets on their own. These sats also provide active jamming in midcourse Ballistic trajectory according to him, which is highly plasuible. Adding few more satellites will change nothing because to escape this early warning system, the only chance is kinetic performance which has been demonstrated by atleast 4 types of IRGC's missiles used in the 12 day war. What happens in future remains to be seen. Tech vs Tech keeps on going for everyone in this world.

In future war, best strategy for Iran will be to implement a strict reciprocating strike regime over Israel, something that IRGCASF learnt middle of the war. For every Israeli attack, IRGC should go for something in Israel, only 2-4 times harder. Remember Israel never attacked Oil Infrastructure against after Bazan attack by IRGC or Strategic HQs after Weizmann or Gav yam destruction for SPND attack. They kept away from nuclear domes as well. Defiance or deterence shown by IRGC was respected by them. Instead of emotional attacks like unleashing 200 Missiles, 400 drones, 200 CM at once, IRGCASF will need to increase cost of attack for enemy in a more surgical way. If they attack SU-35S parked in Hamedan, IRGCASF needs to develop reliable plan to destroy their EW/Refuelers/fighters on ground in return. For every hit on civilian targets, two of theirs needs to be destroyed. This seems to be the only plausible strategy. Nuclear testing/arming threat has been neutralised due to Khamenei's ball-less fatva and IRIAF will need 5-8 years and probably ~20 Billion USD investment to be capable to launch attacks on its own so currently there is no other strategy at hand.

That’s useless if Iran cannot keep the entrances opened. Israel will just bomb the entrances and now your entire airforce is buried.

And the 12 day war showed that Iran cannot open the bases fast enough and get the base operating.

Then there is the problem of jet fuel and PGMs that need to be protected and stored and resupplied. Even 200 sorties a day would wipe out a bases resources quickly and it’s doubtful iran would be able to resupply. Add in spare parts and mechanics needed to keep airframes worthy.

Not impossible, but extremely difficult with this incompetent military brass.

I remember I would tell people on here we need S-400 and S-500 as the S-300 order was much too small for a country the size of Iran. And all the ‘Everything is Awesome’ crowd on here said that Iran doesn’t need any more Russian systems and that it has Bavar and Khordad systems…..yeah we saw how that went.

Iran needs an OVER saturated air defense. Because it will lose air defenses over time during a conflict and cannot be assuming it can cover its airspace with what a country that is always in peace time would (ie Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, UAE).

This is basic logic that this military brass and leadership in Iran failed to grasp.

Whats the alternative then ? have no airforce ? ... No amount of Airdefence can stop always improving attack weapons if we go by recent conflicts and war where air defences failed miserably. If Israel's US supported multilayered shield, starting from Persian Gulf, can not stop IRGCs Fattah and KS then what magic trick can Mullah run IRI field out to stop IAFs air launched inventory from above Iraq ? IAF has one of the worlds most sophisticated arsenal of ALBMs, ALCMs and SOWs. IRIAD/IADS can spread as much layeres of Majid SHORADs and variety of HIMADs S-300PMU2, Khordads, Bavars in future probably but fact remains that none of them can do the following:

(A) stop ALBMs, they are only detected mid flight only unlike conventional BM as location of boost is variable. They can be lofted or depressed trajectory, warhead can be manuvered, hypersonic, separated so RCS is low.

(B) attack is combined with SOWs, ALBMs, drone attack both Kamikaze and PGM, micro and conventional ALCM, inner terrorism launched weapons etc.

To safegaurd the IRIAF assets in future, IRI will need to overhaul their entire security setup from bottom to top. Internal intel needs to improve. IRI has produced hordes of disgruntled Iranians with their own reasons to hate the regime. Fraud elections, rampant corruption, ruined economy, draconian laws ... It is easy for enemy to enter Iran and create a small group that can be used in war to launch quadcopters, ATGMs from within cities at AIr defence assets. This problem will needs to be sorted out. Rest of the defence comes from joint strategy of decoys which were successfully deployed by IRIAF to some extent. Hardened bunkers, underground bases, most spread TELARs of SAMs but remember, this much defence can only lower some level of damage, eventually the attacking party will gain upper hand and they will destroy IRIAF on ground. Were not Israeli interceptors near the point of depletion themselves ? look what happened at Tabriz AB, one of the most gaurded ABs inside Iran. Same fate will be for Radar and AD sites. In this case the only strategy that works is such a strong reciprocating capability which enemy fears so it stays away from striking at first place. IRGCASF reciprocating in a defiant way is the only answer. Better way would be that IRI would announce a nuclear defiance strategy like if they are attacked, enrichment will go to a certain level. Mullahs chickened out otherwise Soleimani's assasination was the perfect oppurtunity to implement this. They should have ripped apart the NPT right there because US broke international laws but instead they gave concussions to 150 American soldiers, no harm done in real. This emboldened the enemy. IRI mullahs need to allow properly trained younger military officers to take charge of strategy.

Also remember, Israel is not the only enemy we have or may have in future. Newly built IRIAF needs to be protected for other countries too. It will be OK if this new airforce in future survives Israel war without even taking part.

 

[Flotilla]

Iran’s missiles are not strong enough to pierce the Western shield without wasting hundreds of missiles in the process to score <10% hits of varying degrees of accuracy.

And if one day the West figures out the interceptor Missile supply and cost issue (which I imagine is something the West is actively aiming to resolve) , than Iran is gonna have a lot of issues.

An ordinary Emad is much cheaper than Arrow3/SM3/THAAD interceptors. But you touch the bone. Even if US/Israel can convert the lead in gold and make an exoatmospheric interceptor cheap (it is highly unlikely) it will take years to develop, test and spread it across Israel.

If Iran had 100,000 missiles you could say the numbers favor Iran, regardless of what the west does.

Iran maybe can build even ten thousand of them. But the problem it is expiry date of propellants and other components. That is the reason why Iran cannot afford to storage a large stockpile.

Instead the best solution would be spread infraestructure, quadriplicating key assembly sites and narrowing the logistic line, to fastener the attrition time.

Then there is the problem of jet fuel and PGMs that need to be protected and stored and resupplied. Even 200 sorties a day would wipe out a bases resources quickly and it’s doubtful iran would be able to resupply. Add in spare parts and mechanics needed to keep airframes worthy.

Ukranian air force was able to operate at low intensity during years. Of course they had the entire NATO logistic line support behind, but in a protracted conflict, Oghab 44 base with main air bases and refurbishing civilian regional airports can allow additional cycles that would allow a real presence of the IRIAF. Not to tell that China and Russia can supply Su35 spare parts urgently to Iran like NATO does with Ukranian Mig29. You have tens of small civilians airports spread around the country!!!.

 

[FUB]

How does Iran compete with that ? We hear the incompetent regime invested in missiles. They didn’t invest in the Air Force .
If average median price of a home is $350k, that would 24,285 homes. America has major housing crises. There are 770,000 homeless families homeless .
That tiny country is really slick.

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[Bharatah]

How does Iran compete with that ? We hear the incompetent regime invested in missiles. They didn’t invest in the Air Force .
If average median price of a home is $350k, that would 24,285 homes. America has major housing crises. There are 770,000 homeless families homeless .
That tiny country is really slick.

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No, my friend, you're mistaken. Missiles/drones are the future of warfare because they are cheaper, easier to handle, easier to conceal in combat, and require almost no maintenance. The warfare "created" by General Soleimani is brilliant because it allows a poorer country to fight "on equal terms" with a stronger one: if a poor country invests in "traditional warfare" with planes and tanks, it won't last 2-3 months against a stronger one. Iran has been attacked (from all sides) for years, and this strategy worked; it also worked for the Houthis in Sana'a and for Russia against NATO in Ukraine. This is the future. What Iran needs to improve is the infiltration of enemy espionage, but that's another matter.

NOTE: In the medium future, there will be "weapon printing" where hand weapons,drones and missiles can be printed (like in a 3D printer model), and then resistance will become even more stronger.

 

[Comandante]

"NOTE: In the medium future, there will be "weapon printing" where hand weapons,drones and missiles can be printed (like in a 3D printer model), and then resistance will become even more stronger."
I completely agree, this is now a reality!

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[Immortals]

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[FUB]

I assume that this video is AI.

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[ToddE]

^ AI

I am rather more worried about where will IRIAF hide this incoming fleet, these are huge air-superiority jets and are coming in high numbers. There is just no defense against hypersonic ALBM or Stealth supersonic SOWs in the world. Fattah, Kheybar Shikan, P-800, Khinzal, Golden Horizon etc ... there is no system that can save a hangar against them.

 

[Tariq Habib Afridi]

I assume that this video is AI.

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you can clearly see SORA on the bottom left which is the AI model used for generating this video

 

[Ali_Baba]

Israel was at the limit of the range of its jets capabilities when it attacked Iran but they still managed to degrade Iran's ability to launch missiles as we saw launches drop off each day.

The USA won't have so many range constraints and they can go after the missile launchers much quicker as the airspace will not be contested. Iran cannot as yet protect its airspace, and as such everything under the Iranian sky is a target that can be taken out very quickly for the Americans.

Entrances to missile bases will be bombed very quickly rendering the many thousands of missiles we hear about, redundant very quickly. Launchers will not last long in the open fields of Iran, so Iran faces a use it all or lose it problem with the USA.

The lack of an air force, and IADS will cost Iran dearly as its missiles capability will be defanged very quickly for that reason.

 

[Flotilla]

Israel was at the limit of the range of its jets capabilities when it attacked Iran but they still managed to degrade Iran's ability to launch missiles as we saw launches drop off each day.

The USA won't have so many range constraints and they can go after the missile launchers much quicker as the airspace will not be contested. Iran cannot as yet protect its airspace, and as such everything under the Iranian sky is a target that can be taken out very quickly for the Americans.

Entrances to missile bases will be bombed very quickly rendering the many thousands of missiles we hear about, redundant very quickly. Launchers will not last long in the open fields of Iran, so Iran faces a use it all or lose it problem with the USA.

The lack of an air force, and IADS will cost Iran dearly as its missiles capability will be defanged very quickly for that reason.

While I agree that US combined with their Rogue partner can destroy cave's entrances and jam availability of missiles launch ratios, obviously not all missile forces are under earth. There are many of them just hide in open áreas and also mixed with decoys.

The operation was so problematic that even IDF was not mixed in the aborpted attack. Just USAF involved.

That suggest that IADs is working also.

 

[ToddE]

While I agree that US combined with their Rogue partner can destroy cave's entrances and jam availability of missiles launch ratios, obviously not all missile forces are under earth. There are many of them just hide in open áreas and also mixed with decoys.

The operation was so problematic that even IDF was not mixed in the aborpted attack. Just USAF involved.

That suggest that IADs is working also.

Good point. No evidence exists for underground silos being used yet or ever. A total of around 1100 BM in TP-1,2,3 have been fired upon Israel, all through surface TELs. Even upto the last minute before ceasefire.

Best strategy is to use cheap monorail TELs and spread them as far apart as possible while using underground bases/missile cities as just storage vaults. This is what IRGCASF did.