The 50,000 rocket number is glorified katushya rockets and GRAD rockets that cannot go more than 20KM-30KM. They do little damage and highly inaccurate.
They don't do damage if you just aim at Kiryat Shmona a few feet across the border, firing away a couple dozen a day.
The rockets are about disrupting Israeli life/economy. Depleting Iron Dome forces them to take risks with their army via costly ground maneuvers that are not good for their economy nor their security.
They were never about overwhelming Israel.
The entire upper leadership of HZ has been decapitated. Many field officers also lost their lives helping in the Gaza war.
HZ and the public opinion in Lebanon means that it’s not at liberty to jump into another war for Israel for the benefit of Iran.
Entire leadership has been replaced. Hezbollah is in an war that is currently one sided. They won't jump in for Iran they have to establish deterrence for themselves but their current thought of mind is let's absorb this for 5-10 years and hope Israel stops by then.
Why didn't they have their logistics system? Did they think Syrian government would never fall? It's cheap and easy to build these factories. Even if Assad was still in power, there are some weapons systems that should have been domesticated long ago. There is less security exposure this way as well. No wonder Israel found almost where every rocket is stored and primed in Lebanon because of long and exposed smuggling route going from Iraq->Syria->Beqaa Valley->Southern Lebanon. It's easily traced.
Hamas would grow in strength following each round. Until this recent genocide. Hezbollah is regressing badly for years now as we saw them lose escalation ladder with Israel, unwillingness or inability to establish deterrence of any kind.
Only three obstacles were stopping Israel from going after Iran:
1.) Hezbollah's rockets
2.)Hezbollah Ridwan Force
3.)Hamas tunnel system in Gaza (costly to reoccupy Gaza)
Hamas's tunnel system proved difficult to contend with. If Israel didn't get a US greenlight to commit genocide in Gaza they would have more trouble on the ground.
Hezbollah's rockets where were they? There was a total of 12,000 rockets fired by Hezbollah. The Hezbollah mega rocket arsenal threat turned out to not be credible. It messed up the entire equation. Maybe Iran knew Hezbollah was this weak but Hamas didn't. Hamas thought they were a very powerful actor.
Hezbollah couldn't deploy their rockets whatsoever. That was embarrassing. Even Islamic Jihad in Gaza does a much better in that regard.
Hezbollah Ridwan Force on paper was a credible threat but ultimately doomed for failure due to the entire leadership and force's identity, as well as entire purpose of the elite force being public knowledge thanks to Nasrallah and Hezbollah leadership that thought sitting down on some weapons meant they could deter Israel forever. After the pager attack and Israel razing of villages in Southern Lebanon, it is no longer a credible threat.
Thus Iran will be getting some more attention than usual during this phase. Iran is lucky Syria is also getting Israeli attention and that the US/Israel see some benefit to Iranian regime remaining in power. I highly doubt they believe Iran was holding back tens of thousands of missiles and are afraid. They can do a Libya style operation in Iran they're choosing not to so make of that what you will. You are a balancing force against Saudi Arabia/Turkey which I'm not using against you. It's a natural evolution of region's ethnic makeup and politics. Saudi/Turks are can also be said to be balancing force against Iran's axis.
We can cut Hezbollah some slack in that Iran and Assad exhausted their capabilities and energy in Syria and they had war fatigue well before 2023 Hamas Operation.
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